Conversations with Bill Kristol

“This election looks like a classic collision between the irresistible force and the immovable object. The irresistible force is the elevated share of Americans who disapprove of Trump’s performance as president, which has increased since last December and is now running consistently around 60%.... The immovable object is that this election, in both the House and the Senate, is going to be fought out primarily on Republican-leaning terrain.”

What’s going to happen in the House? What’s going to happen in the Senate? What should we be watching for in the months ahead? Ron Brownstein, Bloomberg Opinion columnist and senior CNN political analyst, and a leading student of American elections, presents a tour-de-force look at the polls, data, and what indicators will matter most as we head toward November.

“China is aiming to enhance its power with respect to the United States in particular, and eventually to emerge as the dominant player in the international system, and it’s working towards that goal…. It is not clear to me at this point what our strategy is, or even if we have one.”

So argues Princeton Professor Aaron Friedberg in a new Conversation assessing the state of US-China relations in the wake of President Trump’s China summit and the ongoing Iran War. While the Iran War does not represent a decisive shift in US-China relations, Friedberg explains that it is viewed from Beijing as a “net positive” because it has weakened US relations with its traditional allies. In a bracing synopsis, Friedberg presents China as working diligently to overtake the US as the dominant power on the world stage, while the Second Trump administration has failed to counter with a coherent strategy.

“The Ukrainians believe Putin’s now being faced with more dilemmas than they are.” So argues the distinguished historian and a leading analyst of the Ukraine War, Phillips O’Brien. Author of the indispensable Phillips’s Newsletter on Substack, O’Brien shares his perspective on where things stand in Ukraine and Russia, and assesses the broader implications for Europe and beyond. Kristol and O’Brien also consider in depth the massive technological transformations in warfare from Ukraine to Iran, what the consequences may be for the geopolitical order, and how these innovations may affect the competition between the United States and China.

“This branding binge [Trump] has been on: with everything he’s trying to have put his name on. To build the White House ballroom, the arch in front of Arlington Cemetery. And the war and military adventurism. It’s a way of trying to cement his state permanently as a dominant figure in history, because he knows he’s going to die.”

So argues veteran political reporter A.B. Stoddard in a bracing analysis of President Trump’s character and conduct during his second term. Reflecting on the last ten years, Stoddard argues that Trump’s aspirations to cement his role as a dominant figure in history have increased dramatically—and the acceleration of his actions must be taken seriously. For Stoddard, above all, this requires us to confront questions about the 2028 elections, including the possibility that Trump might refuse to leave office or try to keep the presidency in the family. Stoddard warns against the assumption that normalcy will return after 2028: “People just want to hope that we’re going to keep with term-limited presidents.... I don’t think we know what’s coming.”

“What is human happiness? What is political excellence? What is speech, and rhetoric? It’s always important to remind ourselves of that. But especially when you have artificial intelligence, and all of these vast possible changes in human affairs, it’s important to remind ourselves of what’s basic…. And Aristotle uncovers 80%, 90%, 95% of what really one could say, I think, reasonably, and intelligently about lots of political, and ethical matters.”

So argues the distinguished scholar of political philosophy Mark Blitz, author of the newly published Aristotle’s Political Philosophy. In this profound yet accessible Conversation, Blitz distills insights from Aristotle’s works on politics and ethics, covering topics such as the character of human excellence, the centrality of political regimes, the nature of justice, and the relationship between speech and deed. This is a must-see introduction to Aristotle’s reflection on the permanent human problems.