The Munk Debates Podcast

Rudyard and Janice unpack the big surprises in the war from this week, specifically Iran's escalating attacks against Gulf States beyond their military bases, and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz which is disrupting the world's oil supply. Did the U.S. fundamentally misunderstand their opponent before heading into this conflict? Why did this administration not understand that Iran is not Venezuela? This president relies on his gut to make important decisions, and now it will be hard for Trump to end the war without an agreement from Iran and U.S. concessions to the Islamist regime. In the second half of the program Rudyard and Janice discuss the big winners so far. There is an increased demand for Russian natural gas and there are less missile interceptors flowing to Ukraine. The U.S. is overextended at home and abroad. Could Russia and China use Iran as a way to undermine the U.S while it is vulnerable? Will this war spread beyond the Middle East?

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Rudyard and Janice start today's show with the big surprise from this week: Iran striking its Gulf neighbours in an effort to get them to persuade Donald Trump to end this war, which was a serious miscalculation on their part. In fact, the lasting consequences from this conflict will be a rupture between Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Iran that will be hard to repair. Meanwhile America's military success in Iran has been overshadowed by inconsistent messaging from its political leadership. What is the U.S. trying to accomplish? How will they know if they have succeeded, and when it is time to stop? And will rising gas prices and inflation affect Donald Trump's commitment to seeing this through? In the second half of the show Rudyard and Janice turn to Mark Carney's messaging on this conflict. How should international law play into Canada's position? Carney indicated at Davos that Canada aims to be “both principled and pragmatic". But when it comes to the war with Iran, can we be both?
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Rudyard and Andrew try to make sense of Trump's decision to start a war with Iran so contrary to the premise that created the MAGA movement and opposition to America's wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. How did we end up at this point? And how will this war affect the upcoming midterm elections? Andrew thinks Trump persuaded himself that strike would be easy - just like Venezuela - and thus he has no clear strategy. What is the long term goal here? In the second half of the show Rudyard and Andrew turn to Canada's response to this unfolding conflict, specifically Carney signalling support of the US offensive. What is the calculation going on in the background? How are his goals domestically for bolstering trade informing his foreign policy? And finally, what role should Canada have - if any - in this region-altering conflict? Become a Munk Donor ($50 annually) to get 72-hour advanced access to full episodes of Munk Dialogues with Andrew Coyne. Go to www.munkdebates.com to sign up.

Become a Munk Donor ($50 annually) to get 72-hour advanced access to the full length editions of Friday Focus. Go to www.munkdebates.com to sign up.
Rudyard and Janice focus today's episode on the escalating conflict between the U.S. and Iran. Trump's negotiating team has dropped their demands on ballistic missile production and support for militia groups in the region, but the Islamist regime will not give up their nuclear program. Why is Iran unwilling to negotiate when it is so weak politically and militarily? Why would it risk getting into a fight with an opponent with whom they are so unevenly matched? And how much of their position is tied to the religious fundamentalism of its revolutionary movement? In the back half of the show Rudyard and Janice try to make sense of what is motivating Trump to pursue this strike without significant support from his base. What does Iran have to agree to so that Trump is able to back down from this fight and claim a win?

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Rudyard and Andrew react to the fallout from the U.S. Supreme Court's ruling against Trump's tariffs and the President's angry response. How will Trump being denied this authority affect upcoming CUSMA negotiations? Andrew suggests we should expect to see demands from the Trump administration that go far beyond the traditional trade grievances. In the second half of the show Rudyard and Andrew turn to AI and how this new technology will displace white collar jobs. What kind of policy response should we expect from the government in Ottawa? Andrew is more optimistic that this will not be as upending as some are predicting; the history of technological change suggests it will take longer than people suspect for AI to be adopted. There will be jobs lost, but will there be new jobs created? And finally, given that this is a global action program, and we cannot silo ourselves off from the United States and China, what can the Canadian government do to reduce the risk to our economy?