The IR thinker

In this episode, we sit down with political analyst Marc Saxer to explore his theory of Transformative Realism and why he believes we’re living through a profound systemic crisis. From the erosion of international norms to the urgent need for reimagined statecraft, Marc offers a compelling framework for understanding the forces reshaping our world and what political leadership must look like in response.

Marc Saxer
Marc Saxer is a political analyst, strategist, and writer with two decades of experience in international relations. He heads the Asia Pacific office of the Friedrich-Ebert-Shtiftung and convenes the Asia Strategic Foresight Group.

Publications:
Transformative Realism: How to overcome the system crisis
Geopolitical Conflict in the Wolf World: Great Power Competition and the Illiberal Revolt against the Liberal Order

Content
00:00 - Introduction
01:38 - Understanding Transformative Realism
04:50 - Defining Systemic Crisis
07:39 - Marc’s Most Compelling Crisis Case Study
15:08 - The Erosion of International Norms and Rules
18:24 - Recognizing the Signs of Systemic Crisis
20:18 - The Role of Agency in Transformative Realism
28:18 - Reimagining Statecraft and Political Leadership
33:44 - The Crisis in Modern Statecraft Education
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In this episode, Vineet Thakur unpacks the historical and intellectual foundations of Indian diplomacy. We discuss classical strategic traditions, civilisational and colonial legacies, caste and elite networks in diplomatic culture, non-alignment and strategic autonomy, neighbourhood diplomacy, and India’s contemporary practice of multi-alignment amid shifting great-power rivalries.

Vineet Thakur
Vineet Thakur is a University Lecturer in International Relations at the Institute for History, Leiden University. He received his doctorate from Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi, in 2014 and has held academic positions and fellowships across India, South Africa, and the United Kingdom. His professional experience includes teaching appointments at Ambedkar University Delhi, the University of Johannesburg, and the School of Oriental and African Studies, following which he joined Leiden University in 2017. He has been a fellow at the University of Cambridge, the Netherlands Institute for Advanced Study, and Rhodes University.

His research is situated in postcolonial international relations, with a particular focus on the politics of knowledge, disciplinary hierarchies, and the global intellectual history of International Relations, especially in the Indian context.

Publications:
V.S. Srinivasa Sastri: A Liberal Life
India’s First Diplomat: V.S. Srinivasa Sastri and the Making of Liberal Internationalism
Postscripts on Independence: Foreign Policy Discourses in India and South Africa

Content
00:00 – Introduction and Framing of India’s Diplomatic Trajectories
02:03 – Mandala Theory and Kautilya’s Arthashastra as Lenses for Contemporary Regional Policy
05:10 – Intellectual and Historical Inspirations Behind India’s Diplomatic Traditions
06:32 – Civilisational State Narratives Versus Colonial Administrative Foundations of Indian Diplomacy
10:53 – Social Stratification and the Influence of Caste Networks on Diplomatic Recruitment and Culture
22:12 – Nehruvian Idealism and Non-Alignment as Strategy: Autonomy, Hedging, and Principled Neutrality
27:55 – Overlooked and Marginalised Practices in India’s Cold War Diplomatic History
30:30 – The Strategic Logic and Practical Outcomes of the “Neighbourhood First” Diplomatic Doctrine
35:18 – Structural Constraints and Policy Stalemate in India–Pakistan Diplomatic Engagement
37:34 – China’s Strategic Shadow and Its Effects on India’s Diplomatic Posture Towards Pakistan
39:08 – India’s Diplomatic Approach to Tibet in Historical and Contemporary Perspective
43:29 – Multi-Alignment as Strategy: Balancing Great Powers in India’s Contemporary Foreign Policy
47:45 – The Absence of a Permanent United Nations Security Council Seat and Its Diplomatic Consequences
51:15 – India–Africa Relations and the Underdeveloped Economic Dimension of South–South Diplomacy
54:21 – Hindu Nationalism and Its Influence on the Ideational Foundations of Indian Diplomacy
58:24 – Neglected Themes and Under-Researched Domains in the Study of Indian Foreign Policy

*** at 10:29, there is a missing word ‘overstated’
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In this episode, Martin Vladimirov unpacks Bulgaria’s evolving energy landscape in the aftermath of the war in Ukraine. We discuss shifts in the country’s energy mix, offshore wind prospects in the Black Sea, the strategic role of gas pipelines and interconnectors, and the future of key assets such as the Chiren gas storage facility, the Maritsa Iztok lignite complex, and potential new nuclear reactors.

Martin Vladimirov
Martin Vladimirov is Director of the Energy and Climate Program at the Center for the Study of Democracy (CSD), where his work focuses on European and Balkan energy security, energy transition pathways, and the geopolitical dimensions of Russian and Chinese economic influence. He has extensive experience as an energy analyst for The Oil and Gas Year, contributing in-depth reports on Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, and Saudi Arabia, and has consulted for international oil companies across the GCC and MENA regions. Martin is also an affiliated expert with the European Geopolitical Forum in Brussels and previously worked as an energy and economic analyst for CEE Market Watch, covering Iran and Central Asia.

Publications:
Managing Assets Under OFAC Sanctions
Energy and Climate Security in Europe: From Crisis Response to Structural Transformation
The Kremlin Playbook in Mexico: Asymmetric Influence
The Imperative to Weaken the Kremlin’s War Economy: What the West Can Do
Closing the backdoor: The new TurkStream is here. Can the West stop it?

Content
00:00 – Introduction
01:38 – Bulgaria’s Evolving Energy Mix after the War in Ukraine
09:07 – Exploring Bulgaria’s Offshore Wind Potential
12:45 – Strategic Energy Pipelines Crossing Bulgaria
17:16 – Bulgaria’s Relationship with Gazprom and Gas Contracts
24:14 – The Greece–Bulgaria Gas Interconnector (IGB)
27:05 – Alexandroupolis LNG Terminal and Regional Gas Connectivity
28:53 – The Role of Chiren Underground Gas Storage
34:31 – The Future of the Maritsa Iztok Lignite Power Complex
40:50 – Assessing the Feasibility of Two New Nuclear Reactors
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This episode of The IR thinker features a wide-ranging conversation with Professor Dimitry Kochenov on what it really means to “belong” in a world where citizenship is conditional, unequal, and sometimes absent altogether. We unpack the paradox of citizenship as both a legal fiction and a lived necessity, probing whether institutions truly “grant” citizenship, what it means to live as stateless, and whether “real” EU citizenship exists beyond the rhetoric. The discussion traces how EU citizenship can simultaneously empower individuals, through mobility, rights, and protection, while also hollowing out democratic accountability in member states. We examine “market citizenship” and the monetisation of legal status, asking whether citizenship-by-investment schemes that effectively sell access to the EU should be abolished, and close with a critical look at multiple citizenship: is it an emerging path towards global justice or simply an additional layer of privilege for the already mobile?

Dimitry Kochenov
Professor Dimitry Kochenov is a leading scholar of global citizenship and constitutionalism, with a particular focus on the rule of law, EU federalism, and external relations law. He heads the Rule of Law research group at the Democracy Institute of Central European University in Budapest and teaches Global Citizenship at CEU’s Department of Legal Studies in Vienna. Through his work on statelessness, EU citizenship, and the political economy of “citizenship for sale”, he has become a key voice in contemporary debates on how legal status shapes human dignity, mobility, and the evolving architecture of international order.

Publications:
EU enlargement and the failure of conditionality: pre-accession conditionality in the fields of democracy and the rule of law
Citizenship
Citizenship and residence sales: rethinking the boundaries of belonging
Ukraine and the EU enlargement: what is the law and which is the way forward?

Content
00:00 - Introduction
02:02 - The Paradox: Can Institutions Grant Citizenship?
06:23 - Living Stateless: Can Humans Exist Without Citizenship?
16:56 - Does “Real” EU Citizenship Actually Exist?
36:06 - Democracy’s Double Edge: How EU Citizenship Both Empowers and Undermines
50:26 - Market Citizenship: When Human Worth Becomes Economic Value
56:39 - Citizenship for Sale: Should the EU abolish those schemes?
01:08:06 - One Citizenship or Many? The Multiple Citizenship Debate
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This episode of The IR thinker offers a clear and structured tour of contemporary nuclear strategy with Dr Stephen Herzog, moving from the basic categories of nuclear weapons to the political struggles surrounding their control. We unpack the logic of existential and extended deterrence, alliance commitments and escalation management, and examine how arms control agreements and the Non-Proliferation Treaty sustain, yet also entrench, a great power nuclear monopoly. The conversation tackles aspirant nuclear states, debates over “how many is enough”, and the tension between confidence and overconfidence in crisis signalling, before turning to how emerging technologies are reshaping verification, command-and-control, and the broader governance of nuclear weapons.

Stephen Herzog
Dr Stephen Herzog is Professor of the Practice at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey and an Associate of the Project on Managing the Atom at Harvard Kennedy School. A leading specialist in nuclear non-proliferation and arms control, he combines academic expertise with policy experience gained as a technical nuclear arms control official at the U.S. Department of Energy, where he worked directly on the implementation and verification of nuclear agreements. His work bridges theory and practice to illuminate how deterrence, treaty regimes and technological change interact in shaping global nuclear security.

Publications:
Atomic Backfires: When Nuclear Policies Fail
Artificial Intelligence and Nuclear Weapons Proliferation: The Technological Arms Race for (In)visibility
‘What about China?’ and the threat to US–Russian nuclear arms control
Atomic responsiveness: How public opinion shapes elite beliefs and preferences on nuclear weapon use
Winning Hearts and Minds? How the United States Reassured During the Russo-Ukrainian War
The Trilateral Dilemma: Great Power Competition, Global Nuclear Order, and Russia’s War on Ukraine

Content
00:00 – Introduction
01:57 – Types and Categories of Nuclear Weapons
08:40 – Tactical Nuclear Weapons: Historical and Contemporary Contexts
10:32 – Understanding the Concept of Existential Deterrence
16:39 – Extended Deterrence and the Logic of Alliance Security
25:54 – The NPT and the Persistence of Great Power Monopoly
31:53 – Treaty Reform or Status Quo? The Politics of Nuclear Governance
33:12 – Aspirant States and the Quest for Nuclear Capability
34:47 – Escalation Control: Between Arms Agreements and Overconfidence
43:15 – The Dilemma of Quantity: Many vs. Few Nuclear Weapons
50:38 – Authority and Legitimacy: Who Decides Nuclear Access?
55:58 – Technological Challenges to Nuclear Security and Control
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