More or Less

Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news. This week:
(00:32) The internet is abuzz with the claim that twenty-seven young migrants are hired for every British young person. We explore the truth behind this misleading claim.
(08:40) Last year two nerds made a bet on our programme. Those nerds are Substacker Sam Freedman and Maxwell Marlow from the Adam Smith Institute, and they were betting on how the government’s introduction of VAT on school fees would affect pupil numbers. The results are in…
(16:10) We revisit the topic of Welsh literacy after a raft of questions from loyal listeners. Could dual-language teaching explain Wales’ poor reading scores?
(21:53) A Maths A-Level exam was so hard it inspired 30,000 people to sign a petition. But what made it so difficult, and will it make a difference to pupils’ grades?
More or Less is the programme that looks at numbers and statistics in news and in life. We’re always looking for questions from listeners - you can contact us on moreorless@bbc.co.uk.
Guests:
Maxwell Marlow - Director of Public Affairs at the Adam Smith Institute
Sam Freedman - Author of ‘Comment is Freed’ Substack
John Jerrim - Professor of Education and Social Statistics at University College, London
Sebastian Bicen - maths YouTuber and former school maths teacher
Presenter: Tim Harford
Series Producer: Tom Colls
Reporter: Lizzy McNeill
Producers: Nathan Gower, Josh McMinn
Editor: Richard Vadon
Programme Coordinator: Brenda Brown
Sound Engineer: James Beard

In certain corners of the internet some suspicious numbers are cropping up again and again. People claiming that 400 churches have been burnt to the ground or attacked in an assortment of countries, including France, the US and Canada. So, what is going on? Is there a spate of anti-Christian crime sweeping the globe?
We look into what the data actually tells us.
If you've seen a number in the news you think we should take a look at, email moreorless@bbc.co.uk
Presenter: Tim Harford
Reporter/Producer: Lizzy McNeill
Series Producer: Tom Colls
Editor: Richard Vadon
Production Coordinator: Brenda Brown
Sound Mix: Dave O'Neill

Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news. This week:
The Daily Express claims that ‘Migrants will get half of all new homes’, based on a calculation from the Conservatives. We explain why that’s not what the numbers say, and ask what the Conservatives own record on migration and housing tells us.
Does one in five Welsh pupils leave school functionally illiterate? We take a dive into the world of Welsh education and find the numbers tell a different story - but not an encouraging one.
Accusations are flying about who’s responsible for the UK’s high borrowing costs. Does Liz Truss still cast a shadow over the bond market? Is Labour infighting to blame? Or are we missing the economic wood for the political trees? Duncan Weldon has the answers.
And an answer to a question that literally only one person was asking: how many football pitches would fit inside Wales?
More or Less is the programme that looks at numbers and statistics in news and in life. We’re always looking for questions from listeners - you can contact us on moreorless@bbc.co.uk.
Guests:
Ben Brindle - researcher at the Migration Observatory at the University of Oxford
James Riding - Living Markets and Sustainability Editor at Inside Housing
Kathy Rastle - Professor of Cognitive Psychology at the University of London
Duncan Weldon - Economist and author of Blood and Treasure
Rob Eastaway - mathematician and author of Maths on the Back of an Envelope
Presenter: Tim Harford
Series Producer: Tom Colls
Reporter: Nathan Gower
Producers: Josh McMinn, Lizzy McNeill
Editor: Richard Vadon
Programme Coordinator: Brenda Brown
Sound Engineer: James Beard

On the 17th of May the World Health Organisation declared a new outbreak of Ebolavirus in the Democratic Republic of the Congo as an International Emergency.
Ebola virus is an extremely nasty viral disease with a high death toll. But despite its severity, very little is known about the number of infections in this current outbreak, in part because this particular species of Ebola is a rare one.
Headlines recently stated that modelling shows that the number of infections could be almost 1,000 more than recorded. We speak to Dr Ruth McCabe, an epidemiologist at Imperial College London, who worked on the modelling behind those estimates.
Presenter: Tim Harford
Producer: Lizzy McNeill
Sound Mix: James Beard
Production Coordinator: Brenda Brown
Editor: Richard Vadon

Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news. This week:
Headlines have claimed that “healthy life expectancy” in the UK has fallen by two years. What does this actually mean?
A new government report estimates that HS2 will cost almost double its original estimate. We ask where the money’s gone.
Chancellor Rachel Reeves has reduced VAT on theme parks, aquariums and other summer fun. But will these savings get passed on to the consumer?
And Tim gives a much-anticipated update on his recent marathon.
Contributors:
Stuart McDonald - actuary at LCP Health Analytics
John Burn-Murdoch - Chief Data Reporter for the Financial Times
Kate Lamble - journalist and presenter of ‘Derailed: The story of HS2’
Dan Neidle - founder of Tax Policy Associates
Credits:
Presenter: Tim Harford
Reporter / Producer: Lizzy McNeill
Producers: Tom Colls, Nathan Gower and John McMinn
Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown
Sound mix: Neil Churchill
Editor: Richard Vadon