My History Can Beat Up Your Politics

There's an expectation that every midterm will be a wave. 2026 well could be, in line with 1994, 2014 or 2006. But it's not automatic. In this episode we discuss the modern reality of midterms. Party losses are getting lower on average, and what a wave is has changed.

In this episode we focus on 1990, the so-called Seinfeld Election (or a midterm about nothing * which to observers seemed to have no result) and Carter's "Disco Midterm" of 1978. Like a disco record, it went round and round, expected to be a blowout for his party, but it wasn't. Not that it was great for Carter, but it wasn't a big loss as expected.

What defines these kind of non-wave elections is that both parties could point to something. In 1990, a Minnesota GOP Senator unexpectedly looses, but a Democratic New Jersey Senator gets a frightening scare.

A look at the non wave elections, that still had consequences.

* to be clear it was named so in a POLITICO article in the 2000s, long after Seinfeld began airing as a show.

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4 years ago we said this... Call 2022 the Mick Jagger midterm - neither party got fully what they wanted. Both parties experienced win and losses. It is, so far, largely a "stave midterm" where the President's party lost less seats than expected - we've discussed a few of these on this podcast, and thus for the party expected to have lost seats a kind of win. Yet in this case as opposed to other 'stave' midterms, the President's Party looks like they will lose the house. So when is a win a win and a loss a loss? Is this like the 1970, 1990 or 1994 or 1974 elections? We discuss all this and talk about a midterm in the past.
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In the run up to the Civil War, former first lady Julia Tyler participated in a political debate. Moderns will appreciate her participation in politics as an empowered well written woman. Her cause less so.
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A normal midterm with its usual issues between the parties becomes a test for a new President when a labor strike unexpectedly reaches his desk. The opposition party gains, but so does his.
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Hoover did a difficult thing. He beat back challenges and his party won control. Until a string of congressional deaths changed the picture.

The 72nd Congress of 1931 was, as elected, a very narrow Republican , House 218 R - 217 D. Close, but for President Hoover, good enough. That is until, 14 Congressmen-elect died.

Not all at once -- that would be weird -- it was over 13 months, for all kinds of reasons but heart attacks and pneumonias leading the list. When special elections were held, it went 218 D and 216 R.

1 Farm Laborer supported the Democrats so final was 219-216.

We talk about this curious case. We also talk about the 14 Congressmen-elect who had some interesting biographies. And we talk Herbert Hoover and the spin he (tried to) put on The Great Depression.

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