Westminster Insider

As another year of political mayhem beckons, host Patrick Baker dusts off the crystal ball to see what’s in store in 2026, both in Westminster and around the world. POLITICO's Dan Bloom and Annabelle Dickson explain what's at stake at the crucial May elections in Scotland and Wales — and how dire results for Labour could lead to a very real leadership challenge against the prime minister. Dan and Annabelle set the scene for the King's Speech, scheduled for mid-May, and set out the massive challenges the Government faces on a host of domestic fronts including immigration and welfare. Jack Blanchard, POLITICO Playbook managing editor and author in Washington D.C., paints a picture of what we can expect in Trump's America in 2026; highly-charged midterms, crucial Supreme court decisions, multiple foreign policy skirmishes and …. a UFC fight on the White House lawn. Russia expert Mark Galeotti of Mayak Intelligence describes how the war in Ukraine might play out in 2026 and weighs in on the likelihood of a peace agreement both Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelenskyy can swallow. POLITICO's Sarah Wheaton, host of the EU Confidential podcast, looks ahead to elections in Hungary in April, which could spell the end for President Viktor Orbán. Middle East expert and author Kim Ghattas, who writes for The Atlantic, explains what could be in store for the next phase of the fragile ceasefire between Israel and Hamas.  And football writer Henry Winter looks ahead to the FIFA World Cup next summer. Could 2026 be the year it finally comes home? Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Surfball was supposed to be the sport of the next generation – but it instead it was a fiction created by Peter Mandelson. Lying in politics is nothing new, but after the budget, Rachel Reeves' extraordinary pitch-rolling was viewed by some as an outright lie and others as justifiable spin. Inspired by this grey area, host Sascha O'Sullivan tries to find out the difference. BBC Radio 4 Presenter Nick Robinson tells Sascha how he can spot when a politician is lying and explains the difference between ministers making a justifiable argument and those who read "the line to take." Former Keir Starmer Political Director Luke Sullivan says Rachel Reeves was "absolutely not" lying in the run-up to the budget and explains how Starmer made the most of Boris Johnson-era scandals when the Tory prime minister was accused of lying. Craig Oliver, David Cameron's former director of communications, rehashes the fibs told during the Brexit referendum, telling Sascha there were attacks "that were straightforwardly untrue." Sascha then digs in to what happens when a minister... fesses up. She speaks to Mark Harper, who resigned as immigration minister after discovering his cleaner did not have the right to work in the UK. Harper lost his job – but was welcomed back months later. Full Fact Chief Executive Officer Chris Morris tells Sascha it's hard to distinguish outright lies and spin — because most of the time politicians quote half-truths wrapped up in narrative. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The latest round of peace talks in Moscow between the Americans and the Russians has ended without agreement. As President Vladimir Putin talked of being ready to fight a war with Europe, attention in Westminster turned to whether the U.K. has the capability and the will to help protect Ukraine in all scenarios. While Keir Starmer flew to Scotland to announce a joint maritime operation with Norway  to ward off prowling Russian submarines in the North Atlantic, defense chiefs and MPs asked why there was so little mention of the spending commitments in the Budget — and what that means for Britain's preparedness. This week, Anne McElvoy talks to John Foreman, who was Britain’s military attaché in Moscow between 2019 and 2022 having previously performed the same role in Kyiv; and with Esther Webber, POLITICO’s Senior Foreign and Defense Correspondent. Both have been keeping a close eye on the talks. Later she's joined by two influential MPs to discuss Starmer's options. James Cartlidge is the Shadow Defence Secretary, and Labour’s Calvin Bailey sits on the influential Defence Select Committee and served in the RAF for 24 years, including in Afghanistan. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Politicians in Westminster are always falling all over themselves to sound tough on crime. But with so-called “low level” crimes like shoplifting and phone snatching now at record levels, the rhetoric on “lawless” Britain has been growing ever louder. This week, host Patrick Baker has been to Dagenham in outer London where the Labour MP Margaret Mullane says she fears parts of her local area are being overrun with street crime. After speaking to local residents and shop owners about their fears, Patrick speaks to the Policing Minister Sarah Jones in Parliament about how the government is planning to cut crime and make people feel safer. Gavin Stephens, chief of the National Police Chief’s Council, sets out why he believes Westminster’s obsession with police numbers makes policing harder and what reforms he feels are needed tackle the worsening perception of crime in Britain. And Alastair Greig of the security think tank RUSI explains how social media is amplifying public fears — and says policy makers face tough tradeoffs when trying to tackle crime. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

As Rachel Reeves' budget approaches, Westminster is braced for tax hikes. The political manoeuvring necessary may just be one of the greatest political challenges of her career. So on this week's episode of Westminster Insider, Sascha speaks to those who have been there, and compiles some golden rules on how to raise taxes – and get away with it. Social Market Foundation Director and former Gordon Brown advisor Theo Bertram walks Sascha through Brown's 2002 decision to raise National Insurance, and how he kept voters onside while he did it. And Rishi Sunak's former advisor James Nation explains why Sunak's health and social care levy was such a difficult tax rise to announce – and how he tried to mitigate the political blowback. Jeremy Hunt, former Conservative Chancellor, defends not bringing back this tax rise and tells Sascha why freezing income tax thresholds – as Reeves is expected to do – was "less visible" than a hike to the basic rate of income tax, but still "very politically painful". And Sascha, with the help of Bloomberg journalist and author of Can You Run the Economy Joe Mayes, puts herself in the shoes of Rachel Reeves and goes through the options available to her to fill what is expected to be a £20bn blackhole in the budget. Helen Miller, director of the Institute for Fiscal Studies, warns Britain is in for a productivity down-grade, and if she were Rachel Reeves, she would worry about whether or not the budget will "drag down growth". Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices