Westminster Insider

After a Democratic wave in the U.S. midterms, Westminster is wondering whether Trump's domestic setbacks could make him more unpredictable on the world stage — and how Britain should handle the final two years of his presidency.

Patrick Baker speaks to Simon McDonald, the former top civil servant at the Foreign Office, who takes us inside Britain's diplomatic response to the 2018 midterms and explains what lessons can be learned from Trump's first term.

Then Ed Roman, who recently left his role as director of communications at the British Embassy in Washington, reveals how diplomats are already preparing for the next U.S. president — and how to court Trump's potential successors without upsetting the man currently in the Oval Office.

And POLITICO's senior foreign and defence correspondent Esther Webber explains why she thinks Andy Burnham will take a different approach to the Trump White House than his predecessor.
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The Democrats have won the Senate and the House, taking control of Congress for the rest of Donald Trump's presidency.

On this special episode of Westminster Insider, Patrick Baker is joined from Washington D.C. by our Global Politics Bureau Chief Jack Blanchard to unpack the election results and to explore what they could mean for Britain and its European allies.
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Budgets are all about numbers: growth, inflation, unemployment, headroom. So this week on Westminster Insider, Sascha and Pat look into the numbers behind Britain's economy — and just how much government policy is really made up of guesswork, rather than solid measurements.

Sascha talks to Dr Laura Gilbert, the former director of data at Number 10 Downing Street, who explains exactly why the numbers we have on measurements like immigration or the workforce are often wrong by hundreds of thousands of people.

Ben Warner, who was chief advisor on data and digital at Number 10 during the pandemic, explains why this uncertainty spells chaos for political decision-making and says he believes most ministers don't know how to use data.
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Andy Burnham has promised Britain can “hope again”. But with inflation rising, borrowing costs soaring and trillions of pounds of national debt, how much room does Chancellor John Healey actually have to deliver in the budget on Oct. 28?

This week, Pat and Sascha speak to Treasury insiders to find out who really calls the shots when a Chancellor puts together a budget.

First, they hear from Matt Pound, one of former Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ closest advisers, about the tough choices facing Healey, the dangers of leaks and U-turns, and why keeping the bond markets onside matters more than politicians might like to admit.

Then, Cameron Brown, who worked under both Kwasi Kwarteng and Jeremy Hunt, and Simon Finkelstein, who advised Hunt at the Treasury, reveal just how obsessed Westminster has become with the bond markets.

And POLITICO’s Financial Services Editor Fiona Maxwell gives her predictions for what Healey might have in store on budget day.

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00:00 Budget context

04:43 Matt Pound interview

20:40 Why bond markets are so important during budgets

25:20 Ex-treasury staffers Cameron Brown and Simon Finkelstein

37:23 Politico's financial services editor Fiona Maxwell

41:32 The Oddcast: modern day jousting...

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This podcast has been updated to correct the description of Simon Finkelstein’s role.

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Customs union, single market, rejoin, second referendum. It's all feeling a little Ground Hog day in Westminster after Andy Burnham reopened the Europe question at Labour Party conference.

Hosts Sascha O'Sullivan and Pat Baker find out how the row over Europe will play out in the next few years, with Reform MP Danny Kruger and Labour MP Stella Creasy.

Sascha speaks to Cecilia Malmström, former EU Trade Commissioner during the Brexit negotiations, who says any new deal with the EU would need to be "Nigel Farage-proofed" in case Reform wound up in Downing Street.

UK-EU reporter Jon Stone explains what Burnham is hoping to gain from the EU summit next month, and whether Britain's friends in Brussels care about Westminster looking again at Britain's relationship with the trading bloc.

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00:00 Introduction

03:16 Return of the EU wars?

08:00 Stellar Creasy and Danny Kruger

18:58 Could there be a second referendum?

24:10 Does the EU care about the UK?

27:20 Former EU Trade Commissioner Cecilia Malmstrom

32:45 The 'Oddcast'

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