The State of It

Will Labour raise taxes?
The cost of government borrowing is going up and up. That means the chancellor, John Healey, may well need to cut spending or raise taxes next month - and tax rises are much more likely.
Labour MPs are overwhelmingly happy for the first time in living memory, but is that because they haven't woken up to the grim economic reality? The Labour Party conference slogan this year is 'Hope Again', but while the prime minister is projecting optimism, the chancellor is cutting a much more sombre figure as his fiscal headroom shrinks. Will Andy Burnham's desire to lead on economic policy survive next month's budget?
How likely is an early election?
The assumption has been that Burnham will either stick to the Labour manifesto or he'll call an early election. Would he consider breaking, or at least bending, the manifesto to pay for all the things he wants to do?
The donations row explained
Labour's plan to block donations to Reform UK from Christopher Harborne and Ben Delo is nakedly partisan. The row shines a light on the strange world of political donations and the surprisingly vague laws that govern them. How much of a difference would the £72m make to Reform's electoral prospects?

Steven Swinford, political editor, The Times
Ben Riley-Smith, political editor, The Sunday Times
Lara Spirit, deputy political editor, The Sunday Times
Patrick Maguire, chief political commentator, The Times

Producer: Harry Kitson
Executive producer: Molly Guinness

Picture: Getty Images
This podcast was brought to you thanks to subscribers of The Times and The Sunday Times. To enjoy unlimited digital access to all our journalism subscribe here.
Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

MPs have voted against the assisted dying bill. The legislation was defeated by a margin of 16 votes, with 286 MPs in favour and 270 against, after 314 MPs backed the plan last year. It's a huge moment in the House of Commons.
Why did the support for it fall away?
How much of a difference did it make that Andy Burnham was not a supporter?
Does it mean the issue is off the table for the foreseeable future?
Where do we go from here? Does it galvanise the prime minister's mission to reform social care and palliative care?
Plus, Andy Burnham is turning left, trying to appeal to the voters that Keir Starmer lost to the Greens and the Liberal Democrats. Will it work? And are the odds of an early election narrowing?

Steven Swinford, political editor, The Times
Ben Riley-Smith, political editor, The Sunday Times

Producer: Harry Kitson
Executive producer: Molly Guinness

Picture: Getty Images
Audio: Parliament TV
This podcast was brought to you thanks to subscribers of The Times and The Sunday Times. To enjoy unlimited digital access to all our journalism subscribe here.
Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Ed Miliband, the foreign secretary, is announcing sanctions on Israel over West Bank settlements. Why is it such a priority for Andy Burnham's government and what are the risks? It creates yet another diplomatic sticking point for the prime minister when he meets President Trump later this month.
At Reform UK's conference, a protester who disrupted Nigel Farage's speech was whacked with a stick and had her hair pulled. The party's economic spokesman Robert Jenrick says she had it coming. An astute political calculation or will it put off wavering voters?
Has Reform weathered the storm after last week's resignations in the wake of the Verbatim/Channel 4 undercover investigation that showed senior aides arranging off-the-books polling? The party denies all wrongdoing. Does the story seriously damage them in the eyes of voters?
John Healey's first speech as chancellor was a chance to show a radical new vision and also to show the markets he can be trusted not to do anything too radical. The problem is you can't do both. We look at some of the calculations going into next month's budget.

Ben Riley-Smith, political editor, The Sunday Times
Lara Spirit, deputy political editor, The Sunday Times

Producer: Harry Kitson
Executive producer: Molly Guinness

Picture: Parliament TV
Audio: Sky News
This podcast was brought to you thanks to subscribers of The Times and The Sunday Times. To enjoy unlimited digital access to all our journalism subscribe here.
Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Reform UK’s 2026 conference has begun in Birmingham under a cloud after Channel 4 broadcast allegations of an attempt to circumvent the rules on foreign donations — prompting Nigel Farage to turn on two of his closest aides, Dan Jukes and James Orr.
Farage’s relationship with Jukes has been described as “father-son” so it’s a huge step for Farage and for Reform. Find out how it all unfolded in the early hours.

The extraordinary fallout has overshadowed Farage’s big migration announcement with Jordan Bardella, Marine Le Pen’s National Rally running mate and the man who hopes to be the next French prime minister.

Nigel Farage says Reform UK has done nothing wrong and that the investigation was carried out by far left activists. How much does the story damage Brand Reform? Are voters more interested in his small boats policy or in the questions raised by the documentary?

Steven Swinford, political editor, The Times
Ben Riley-Smith, political editor, The Sunday Times
Lara Spirit, deputy political editor, The Sunday Times
Patrick Maguire, chief political commentator, The Times

Producers: Euan Dawtrey, Harry Kitson

Executive producer: Molly Guinness

Picture: Getty Images
This podcast was brought to you thanks to subscribers of The Times and The Sunday Times. To enjoy unlimited digital access to all our journalism subscribe here.
Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Andy Burnham wants the first day back in the Commons to be all about hope. But how long can he and his chancellor John Healey keep up the feel-good vibes? After much talk of change, there's a whiff of continuity in the air. Find out what is making Labour MPs most nervous and angry - and why.
The toughest calls on defence spending and the economy are deferred to 2027, creating a juggernaut for next year.
The PM says that public control is a priority but a decision on Thames Water has been postponed.
What is Labour's policy on North Sea oil and gas drilling?
Scoop: the government will confirm gas drilling at Jackdaw, but it's unclear what they'll do about the more controversial Rosebank oil and gas field.
What did we learn from Kemi Badenoch's reshuffle?
Kemi Badenoch's ruthless shadow cabinet reshuffle has demonstrated her hold over her party. But will it help the Conservatives' electoral prospects?
Reform UK Conference: what to expect
Polling suggests Nigel Farage is most likely to be the UK's next prime minister, and at their conference this week Reform UK will attempt to show us all what it would be like. What would a Reform government deliver in its first 100 days?

Steven Swinford, political editor, The Times
Lara Spirit, deputy political editor, The Sunday Times
Patrick Maguire, chief political commentator, The Times

Producers: Euan Dawtrey, Harry Kitson
Executive producer: Molly Guinness

Picture: Getty Images
This podcast was brought to you thanks to subscribers of The Times and The Sunday Times. To enjoy unlimited digital access to all our journalism subscribe here.
Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.