The State of It

What a difference a year makes
The Labour Party conference awaits. Has Andy Burnham's folksy charm and optimism taken the party as far as it can, or can he consolidate power and popularity?
Six-party politics
A YouGov poll for The Times and Sky News puts Reform UK and the Conservative Party on level pegging for the first time in 18 months. Thursday's mega poll, the first MRP from YouGov in a year, will be a fascinating snapshot of the shifting electoral tectonic plates. Labour MPs are pinning their hopes on a split on the right, but will Burnham's government be able to build enough support from potential Green and Liberal Democrat voters?
What will Andy Burnham's government do about welfare?
Three reports into work and benefits are imminent: Charlie Mayfield's recommendations about how to keep people in work, Alan Milburn's report into Neets (young people not in education, employment or training) and a government review of mental health conditions. All of them put the welfare system into the spotlight. The timing creates a political problem for the government because next month's budget will not address the welfare bill. Raising taxes without fixing welfare is difficult for a prime minister who has talked about the power of politics to change things. Meanwhile his chancellor, John Healey, is buffeted by rising borrowing costs, which hit £18.3 billion in August, up nearly a fifth on August last year.
Brexit re-litigated?
On the plane to New York, Andy Burnham refused to rule out rejoining the European Union. A year ago he said he hoped the UK would rejoin the EU in his lifetime. Could he really be tempted to try to boost economic growth by aligning more closely with the EU or putting rejoining the EU in the next manifesto?

Steven Swinford, political editor, The Times
Patrick Maguire, chief political commentator, The Times

Producer: Harry Kitson
Executive producer: Molly Guinness

Picture: Getty Images
This podcast was brought to you thanks to subscribers of The Times and The Sunday Times. To enjoy unlimited digital access to all our journalism subscribe here.
Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The Burnham Trump meeting
Andy Burnham and Donald Trump will meet for the first time in New York next week. It's the biggest foreign policy moment in Burnham's premiership so far and there are many different ways in which it could go wrong. Burnham wants to be more confrontational with Trump than Starmer was...without damaging relations with the US.
Autumn budget: the walls are closing in
It's now accepted that next month's budget will be a money-raising budget. Does the new government have a plan for growth?
Are the Liberal Democrats still relevant?
The Liberal Democrats are about to hold their conference and some of their MPs are worried that Ed Davey isn't doing enough as leader. We look at their electoral strategy and their prospects.

Steven Swinford, political editor, The Times
Ben Riley-Smith, political editor, The Sunday Times
Lara Spirit, deputy political editor, The Sunday Times

Producer: Harry Kitson
Executive producer: Molly Guinness

Pictures: Getty Images
This podcast was brought to you thanks to subscribers of The Times and The Sunday Times. To enjoy unlimited digital access to all our journalism subscribe here.
Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Will Labour raise taxes?
The cost of government borrowing is going up and up. That means the chancellor, John Healey, may well need to cut spending or raise taxes next month - and tax rises are much more likely.
Labour MPs are overwhelmingly happy for the first time in living memory, but is that because they haven't woken up to the grim economic reality? The Labour Party conference slogan this year is 'Hope Again', but while the prime minister is projecting optimism, the chancellor is cutting a much more sombre figure as his fiscal headroom shrinks. Will Andy Burnham's desire to lead on economic policy survive next month's budget?
How likely is an early election?
The assumption has been that Burnham will either stick to the Labour manifesto or he'll call an early election. Would he consider breaking, or at least bending, the manifesto to pay for all the things he wants to do?
The donations row explained
Labour's plan to block donations to Reform UK from Christopher Harborne and Ben Delo is nakedly partisan. The row shines a light on the strange world of political donations and the surprisingly vague laws that govern them. How much of a difference would the £72m make to Reform's electoral prospects?

Steven Swinford, political editor, The Times
Ben Riley-Smith, political editor, The Sunday Times
Lara Spirit, deputy political editor, The Sunday Times
Patrick Maguire, chief political commentator, The Times

Producer: Harry Kitson
Executive producer: Molly Guinness

Picture: Getty Images
This podcast was brought to you thanks to subscribers of The Times and The Sunday Times. To enjoy unlimited digital access to all our journalism subscribe here.
Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

MPs have voted against the assisted dying bill. The legislation was defeated by a margin of 16 votes, with 286 MPs in favour and 270 against, after 314 MPs backed the plan last year. It's a huge moment in the House of Commons.
Why did the support for it fall away?
How much of a difference did it make that Andy Burnham was not a supporter?
Does it mean the issue is off the table for the foreseeable future?
Where do we go from here? Does it galvanise the prime minister's mission to reform social care and palliative care?
Plus, Andy Burnham is turning left, trying to appeal to the voters that Keir Starmer lost to the Greens and the Liberal Democrats. Will it work? And are the odds of an early election narrowing?

Steven Swinford, political editor, The Times
Ben Riley-Smith, political editor, The Sunday Times

Producer: Harry Kitson
Executive producer: Molly Guinness

Picture: Getty Images
Audio: Parliament TV
This podcast was brought to you thanks to subscribers of The Times and The Sunday Times. To enjoy unlimited digital access to all our journalism subscribe here.
Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Ed Miliband, the foreign secretary, is announcing sanctions on Israel over West Bank settlements. Why is it such a priority for Andy Burnham's government and what are the risks? It creates yet another diplomatic sticking point for the prime minister when he meets President Trump later this month.
At Reform UK's conference, a protester who disrupted Nigel Farage's speech was whacked with a stick and had her hair pulled. The party's economic spokesman Robert Jenrick says she had it coming. An astute political calculation or will it put off wavering voters?
Has Reform weathered the storm after last week's resignations in the wake of the Verbatim/Channel 4 undercover investigation that showed senior aides arranging off-the-books polling? The party denies all wrongdoing. Does the story seriously damage them in the eyes of voters?
John Healey's first speech as chancellor was a chance to show a radical new vision and also to show the markets he can be trusted not to do anything too radical. The problem is you can't do both. We look at some of the calculations going into next month's budget.

Ben Riley-Smith, political editor, The Sunday Times
Lara Spirit, deputy political editor, The Sunday Times

Producer: Harry Kitson
Executive producer: Molly Guinness

Picture: Parliament TV
Audio: Sky News
This podcast was brought to you thanks to subscribers of The Times and The Sunday Times. To enjoy unlimited digital access to all our journalism subscribe here.
Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.