The State of It

Andy Burnham's victory in Makerfield makes him Labour leader and prime minister in waiting. How will the next days and weeks play out?
Keir Starmer has said he will stand in a leadership contest if one is triggered. So does that mean a bloody contest rather than a coronation?
In a special episode recorded live on Times Radio with Ed Vaizey, we go through the possible scenarios.
And if Andy Burnham does become prime minister, what will he do with power? Who will be in his cabinet? We're told that Shabana Mahmood has turned down the offer of chancellor and will stay as home secretary. Is Ed Miliband still a likely candidate for chancellor? And what to do about Wes Streeting?
We also look at the Conservative win in Aberdeen South. Is this a green shoot for the Conservative Party?
And will the Makerfield result prompt some soul searching in Reform UK?

Ed Vaizey, presenter, Times Radio
Steven Swinford, political editor, The Times
Lara Spirit, deputy political editor, The Sunday Times

Producers: Harry Kitson, Erin Carney
Executive producer: Molly Guinness

Picture: Getty Images

00:00 - Intro: "They’re Going to Have to Drag Him Out"
00:20 - Welcome to The State of It: The Makerfield Shockwave
00:56 - An Extraordinary Result: How Andy Burnham Defied Political Gravity
03:00 - "Vote Burnham, Get Starmer Out" Campaign Strategy
04:05 - Keir Starmer Strikes Back: Leadership Contest or Coronation?
06:37 - Starmer's Response: "I'm Not Going to Walk Away"
07:14 - Inside Starmer's Bunker: Refusing an Orderly Transition
09:16 - The Secret List: 80+ MPs Backing Andy Burnham
11:06 - Nigel Farage's Disappointment: Reform UK Share Drops
12:00 - Kemi Badenoch's Tories Resurge in Scotland
13:04 - Did Reform UK Choose the Wrong Candidate?
14:04 - The Identity Schism Deepening Inside Reform UK
16:00 - What Does an Andy Burnham Premiership Actually Stand For?
17:48 - Tax Overhauls: Radical Land Tax vs. Council Tax
18:38 - The NATO Summit and the Defense Investment Plan Dilemma
21:00 - Tough Decisions on Welfare Cuts and Benefits
23:16 - The Power Brokers: Louise Haig & Anneliese Midgley
24:40 - Cabinet Secrets: Ed Miliband vs. Shabana Mahmood
27:12 - Shabana Mahmood’s Hardline Immigration Reforms
28:22 - Wes Streeting's Defiance: Forcing a Platform Battle?
32:38 - What Happens to the Hardcore Starmer Loyalists?
This podcast was brought to you thanks to subscribers of The Times and The Sunday Times. To enjoy unlimited digital access to all our journalism subscribe here.
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Makerfield is the most consequential by-election in history. Andy Burnham is confident he'll win. What happens then? When and how does he make a move? What can Keir Starmer do to thwart him? We have several scoops for you today.
Listen to find out which cabinet ministers are thinking of resigning after Makerfield and which senior figure has been ghosting the PM.
If Andy Burnham does get to Number 10, the whole direction of his premiership will depend on who he picks for his cabinet. We bring you the latest on what his team is thinking.
And of course it's also possible that Reform UK could beat Labour in Makerfield — what then?

Steven Swinford, political editor, The Times
Patrick Maguire, chief political commentator, The Times
Lara Spirit, deputy political editor, The Sunday Times

Executive producer: Molly Guinness
Video editor: George Clare

Picture credit: Getty Images
Audio: Times Radio
This podcast was brought to you thanks to subscribers of The Times and The Sunday Times. To enjoy unlimited digital access to all our journalism subscribe here.
Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Exclusive stories from the front line of the government's war over defence spending.
And there's a swagger about Andy Burnham's team: they're more and more confident that he'll win in Makerfield. What happens next? And how will the enmity between Andy Burnham and Keir Starmer influence the outcome?

Steven Swinford, political editor, The Times
Lara Spirit, deputy political editor, The Sunday Times

Producers: Euan Dawtrey, Harry Kitson
Executive producer: Molly Guinness

Picture: Getty Images

Email us: thestateofit@thetimes.co.uk
This podcast was brought to you thanks to subscribers of The Times and The Sunday Times. To enjoy unlimited digital access to all our journalism subscribe here.
Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Nigel Farage has said that the death of Henry Nowak is proof that "we’re living in a two-tier culture...where the rights and privileges of white people matter less than those of ethnic minorities". Police bodycam footage shows Nowak, 18, being arrested for alleged racial abuse minutes before he died from stab wounds in December 2025. It's a tragedy that's very quickly become political. We explain why it's an issue that's particularly tricky for Labour to respond to.
Also, a snapshot of strange by-election campaign where cabinet members are not welcome, Labour MPs might be allowed a selfie with Andy Burnham (if they're lucky), and the future of the country is decided upon by a tiny group of people in a club where they hold auctions of exotic birds.
And what the Mandelson files tell us about the Labour Party – and about Patrick Maguire Syndrome.

Steven Swinford, political editor, The Times
Patrick Maguire, chief political commentator, The Times
Lara Spirit, deputy political editor, The Sunday Times

Producers: Euan Dawtrey, Harry Kitson
Executive producer: Molly Guinness

Picture: Henry Nowak with his father, Mark (Family handout/PA)
Audio: PA, ITV
This podcast was brought to you thanks to subscribers of The Times and The Sunday Times. To enjoy unlimited digital access to all our journalism subscribe here.
Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

In the Makerfield by-election, Reform UK have put forward a local plumber in the hope of derailing Burnham’s push for power — but a string of deeply questionable old social media posts has left the campaign wobbling. Meanwhile, on Reform’s right flank, Rupert Lowe’s Restore Britain party is threatening to split the vote after a Sunday Times poll put them on 7% — enough to potentially hand Labour the advantage.
Back in Downing Street, Rachel Reeves is machine-gunning her colleagues. The question is whether she genuinely believes she can survive in post under an Andy Burnham leadership.

Patrick Maguire, chief political commentator, The Times
Lara Spirit, deputy political editor, The Sunday Times

Producers: Euan Dawtrey, Harry Kitson
Executive producer: Molly Guinness

Picture credit: Getty Images
This podcast was brought to you thanks to subscribers of The Times and The Sunday Times. To enjoy unlimited digital access to all our journalism subscribe here.
Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.