The State of It

Andy Burnham's welfare reforms are likely to start with more, not less, spending. In his review into Neets, young people not in education, employment or training, Alan Milburn will propose restricting access to universal credit for 16 to 24-year-olds, and spending money instead on employment support. The prime minister will tell MPs the government needs to spend first, cut later to bring about meaningful welfare reform. That may please Labour MPs but will the bond markets keep the faith?
Meanwhile, the home secretary, Shabana Mahmood, is facing opposition within Labour over plans to double the wait for indefinite leave to remain from five to 10 years. Will Burnham back her reforms, or carve out an exception for migrant care workers?

Steven Swinford, political editor, The Times
Ben Riley-Smith, political editor, The Sunday Times
Patrick Maguire, chief political commentator, The Times

Producers: Euan Dawtrey, Harry Kitson
Executive producer: Molly Guinness

Pictures: Getty Images
This podcast was brought to you thanks to subscribers of The Times and The Sunday Times. To enjoy unlimited digital access to all our journalism subscribe here.
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In this live recording of The State of It, Patrick and Steve assess the state of play ahead of budget day.
John Healey is preparing a steady-as-she-goes budget, but with the big decisions on welfare, defence and tax rises pushed into next year, is Labour ducking the difficult choices?
Meanwhile, AI evangelists want Britain to seize the opportunities, while Ed Miliband is pushing back on environmental grounds. Cue an almighty cabinet row.
Reform UK’s poll lead has narrowed as Restore eats into its support. But is Westminster writing off Nigel Farage too soon? Reform remains the most trusted party on immigration and is sharpening its economic pitch to working-class voters.
Finally, Andy Burnham faces one of Labour’s biggest challenges: reforming the welfare system.

Recorded in Westminster as part of The Battle of Ideas festival.

Steven Swinford, political editor, The Times
Patrick Maguire, chief political commentator, The Times

Producers: Euan Dawtrey, Harry Kitson

Executive producer: Molly Guinness

Picture: Getty Images

00:00 - "The bond vigilantes are ready to split our throats"
00:09 - Inside Healey’s budget: Bank taxes & disappearing headroom
02:04 - "He’s a dud": Cabinet backbiting over the Chancellor
04:34 - The budget trap: Delaying big tax rises until next year
07:02 - Courting the squeezed middle: Business rates vs Reform UK
08:53 - Shock YouGov polling: Only 3% expect to be better off
11:24 - Is Reform UK finished, or are the pundits wrong?
15:45 - The bizarre reason Number 10 secretly wants a Tory comeback
18:12 - Cabinet AI civil war: Silicon Valley vs British jobs
22:30 - The UK grid crisis: Can we even power AI data centres?
24:51 - The Milburn Review: Plans to ban benefits for under-25s
29:19 - Broken PIP system: Backdated lump sums and 18-year assessment delays
32:15 - Can Labour ever shake the "welfare party" label?
This podcast was brought to you thanks to subscribers of The Times and The Sunday Times. To enjoy unlimited digital access to all our journalism subscribe here.
Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Andy Burnham has pulled the lever marked ‘Brexit’, threatening to reignite the wars of yesteryear. The soft left are delighted, but there’s unease in his cabinet. Is this a route back to a referendum, or just a meagre SPS (Sanitary and Phytosanitary) deal? Or is Burnham already firing the opening shots of his election campaign — at the expense of the leave-voting areas he promised to win over? Has he already failed the Makerfield test?

It’s budget season, and speculation is mounting over what’s inside John Healey’s red box. This is billed as a budget for the high street: for the white van man and the beauticians of Rotherham, funded by a crackdown on online retail giants. But with John Lewis sounding the alarm, how far will the chancellor go?

Steven Swinford, political editor, The Times
Ben Riley-Smith, political editor, The Sunday Times
Lara Spirit, deputy political editor, The Sunday Times
Patrick Maguire, chief political commentator, The Times

Producers: Euan Dawtrey, Harry Kitson
Executive producer: Molly Guinness

Picture: Getty Images

00:00 - The Brexit Wars Return
02:51 - Why Andy Burnham Wants Closer EU Ties
05:25 - Nigel Farage Delighted & Secret Cabinet Rifts
08:04 - The Real Cost: Free Movement & Single Market Traps
10:50 - Is Labour Priming The Polls For An Early Election?
13:46 - Has Burnham Abandoned The 'Makerfield Test'?
17:46 - The Russia Claim: Anatomy Of A 24-Hour U-Turn
20:06 - "Authenticity" Or Chaos? Burnham's Loose Talk
22:25 - The Budget: John Healey Targets 'White Van Man'
26:11 - High Street vs Online Giants: Retailers Strike Back
28:56 - Historic Tax Hikes: Distracting From The Pain
This podcast was brought to you thanks to subscribers of The Times and The Sunday Times. To enjoy unlimited digital access to all our journalism subscribe here.
Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Zack Polanski's defeat in the Holborn & St Pancras by-election puts him in a tough position. The Green leader lost the by-election by 3,300 votes to Sagal Abdi-Wali, the Labour candidate. He's also facing criticism after the Green Party voted to declare that Zionism is racism. Polanski did not vote and has been accused of failing to show leadership. How tenable is his position now?

Plus, parliament is back next week and the real business of government gets going. We look at what's in store and how the chancellor, John Healey, is preparing for a very, very difficult budget.

Steven Swinford, political editor, The Times
Lara Spirit, deputy political editor, The Sunday Times
Patrick Maguire, chief political commentator, The Times

Producer: Harry Kitson
Executive producer: Molly Guinness

Picture: Getty Images

00:00 - By-Election Result: Labour Wins Holborn & St Pancras
00:36 - Is Zack Polanski’s Leadership in Trouble?
01:56 - Green Party Rifts & The Palestine Motion Controversy
07:34 - Is This the Beginning of the End for Polanski?
11:06 - Andy Burnham’s Electoral Boost & Labour’s Position
11:44 - Parliament Returns: Navigating the Autumn Budget
13:18 - John Healey, Treasury Trips, and Bank of England Warnings
16:39 - Defence Spending vs Public Services Dilemma
20:39 - Welfare Reviews, Jackdaw Gas Field & Election Speculation
This podcast was brought to you thanks to subscribers of The Times and The Sunday Times. To enjoy unlimited digital access to all our journalism subscribe here.
Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Kemi Badenoch's attack on Reform UK was all about character and her attack on Labour was all about economics. In her speech at the Conservative Party conference in Birmingham, she said she would to scrap inheritance tax on family homes and that under a Conservative government, couples would be able to leave an extra £1m inheritance tax free to their children.
Badenoch was withering about Nigel Farage and Reform UK, saying: "The circus goes on and on and it will never stop because this is who Reform are — so to those who say ‘unite the right’, we are not uniting with that.”
We look at the Conservatives' electoral strategy, their prospects — especially compared with a year ago — and the vibes among their MPs.

Steven Swinford, political editor, The Times
Ben Riley-Smith, political editor, The Sunday Times
Lara Spirit, deputy political editor, The Sunday Times
Patrick Maguire, chief political commentator, The Times

Producers: Euan Dawtrey, Harry Kitson
Executive producer: Molly Guinness

Picture: Getty Images

00:00 - Live from Tory Conference: Badenoch’s Speech Analysis
00:41 - The Inheritance Tax Gamble: Family Homes Exempt
02:01 - Strategic Shift: Winning Back the South & Abandoning the Red Wall
05:14 - Why Immigration Was Dropped From the Main Message
06:33 - "We Will Not Unite": Direct Rejection of Reform UK & Farage
08:03 - Character vs. Policy: The New Strategy Against Reform
10:45 - Key Omissions: Public Services and the NHS
13:17 - Football Legends, Identity, and Patriotism
17:36 - Vibe Check: A Surprisingly United Tory Party
20:19 - Badenoch’s Dominance: "Captain, Manager, and Owner"
22:13 - Path to Power: Rebuilding Economic Trust
25:08 - Behind the Scenes: Bars, Protesters, and Business Access
29:34 - Did Badenoch’s Speech Set the Political Weather?
32:50 - Looking Ahead to the Budget
This podcast was brought to you thanks to subscribers of The Times and The Sunday Times. To enjoy unlimited digital access to all our journalism subscribe here.
Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.