Can Democrats Flip The Senate In 2026? + The SHOCKING Voter Data That Explains Trump's 2024 Victory
Chuck Todd reacts to the news that North Carolina senator Thom Tillis won’t seek reelection, why harassment from the Trump team led to his decision, and why his decision gives Democrats another opportunity to pick up a senate seat in the 2026 midterm elections. He also highlights the path for Democrats to win the senate in 26’ and cautions Republicans about the potential of a Democratic president abusing their power in a similar way to Trump.Then, Chuck sits down with renowned pollster Kristen Soltis Anderson to dissect the seismic shifts in American politics following the 2024 election. They dive deep into the surprising demographic realignments that defined Trump's victory, including his unprecedented gains with young and Latino voters, while exploring whether traditional demographic-based political messaging has become obsolete. Anderson shares insights from Pew Research's unique voter validation methodology and explains why the biggest story of 2024 wasn't who showed up to vote, but rather the millions of Biden 2020 supporters who stayed home.The conversation spans from foreign policy contradictions—where only 8% support attacking Iran but majorities back preventing Iranian nuclear weapons—to the evolving nature of political coalitions and whether we're witnessing a return to pre-Obama era electoral patterns. Anderson and Todd examine the psychological profile of different generations, particularly Gen Z's political malleability and loss of societal trust shaped by COVID, while discussing the future challenges facing pollsters as AI technology threatens traditional survey methodology. They conclude by analyzing whether 2024 represented a "vote for" or "vote against" election, and how both parties must adapt to meet an increasingly anti-establishment electorate.Finally, Chuck answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment about baseball, the media, and the prospects of Republican congressman Mike Lawler running for governor in New York.Timeline:(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)00:00 Introduction01:00 Senator Thom Tillis won’t seek reelection02:00 Tillis struggled to fully embrace Trumpism/MAGA03:00 Tillis felt harassed by the Trump team05:30 Rep. Don Bacon also not seeking reelection08:00 Tillis retirement makes Roy Cooper senate run more likely09:15 Lara Trump may run for Tillis’s seat11:00 Trump has caused multiple senate seats to flip blue12:15 How Democrats can pick up the seats to flip the senate13:15 North Carolina, Texas, Maine could all be in play for Democrats15:30 Susan Collin managed to make both sides mad17:00 Louisiana probably out of reach for Democrats18:30 Other states Democrats can target22:00 Budget cuts to rural states could create openings for Democrats24:15 It’s an uphill battle for Democrats, but they’re in the game28:00 It’s been a tumultuous week in politics28:30 Trump has pushed the limits of his powers29:30 Trump has created a blueprint for successors to follow31:00 We’ve grown numb to power being used for personal gain32:00 Politics was becoming less corrupt until Trump34:00 After Nixon, the country wanted a high character president35:15 The constitutional guardrails are being weakened37:00 Is the ability to get attention the most important skill in politics?37:45 Kristen Soltis Anderson joins the Chuck ToddCast! 39:15 How Pew Research's voter validation poll works 41:15 Why Pew's poll is the best survey of both voters and non-voters 42:30 Voters have an Iraq hangover when viewing the Iran strikes 43:30 Public opinion on foreign policy is complicated and contradictory 44:15 Only 8% of the public supports attacking Iran 45:00 The public supports intervention to prevent Iran nuclear weapon 46:45 Are Republican voters party first, or Trump supporters? 48:30 Polling on Iran hinges on what we actually achieved with strikes 50:00 Huge jump in Hispanic support for Trump in 2024 52:15 Trump gained most with young and latino voters 53:45 Has the electorate reverted to the pre-Obama era? 55:30 Are demographics overrated in messaging? 57:15 Urban/rural divide shrank in 2024 1:00:15 Biggest story of 24' was Biden 20' voters that didn't show up1:02:15 The parties need to meet voters where they are 1:03:15 Takeaways from Mamdani's victory in NYC? 1:04:30 Bullish on media savvy populists 1:06:15 AOC is a 5 star political athlete 1:08:45 Was 2024 a "vote for" or "vote against" election? 1:10:15 Voters continue to vote against the status quo 1:11:30 Where is the electorate stable/unstable? 1:14:00 Has Trump changed the perception of what government should do? 1:16:00 Republicans want state intervention in "woke" business over illegality 1:17:15 What is the best methodology for conducting polls? 1:20:30 Best way to contact people for polls? 1:22:30 Generative AI will cause major problems for pollsters 1:25:15 Can averaging polls be helpful? 1:27:45 Averaging national polls vs. state polls 1:29:15 Impact of millennials becoming largest voting bloc 1:30:30 Gen Z is politically malleable 1:31:15 The COVID effect on Gen-Z's politics 1:33:15 Gen Z has lost trust and faith in society 1:35:15 How lasting is someone's "coming of age" moment in politics?1:38:45 Chuck's thoughts on interview with Kristen Soltis Anderson 1:41:45 Ask Chuck 1:42:15 Naming the Florida Marlins the "Miami Marlins"? 1:47:15 Is the media failing to handle Trump's flood the zone strategy? 1:51:30 Could Mike Lawler win in New York or rise in the Republican party?
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Zohran Mamdani STUNS With Victory Over Andrew Cuomo + The NIGHTMARE Of Living Undocumented In Trump’s America
Chuck Todd begins with Zohran Mamdani’s stunning victory over Andrew Cuomo in the New York City Democratic mayoral primary. He points to Mamdani’s cost of living messaging and youth as major factors in the victory, but cautions the party against embracing the “socialist” label, and wonders whether the party establishment will embrace or shun Mamdani.Then, Chuck is joined by Pulitzer Prize-winning journalist Jose Antonio Vargas, who shares his deeply personal journey of living as an undocumented immigrant in America and how it shaped his perspective on one of the nation's most divisive issues. Vargas, who publicly revealed his undocumented status over a decade ago, discusses the atmospheric shift in immigration discourse under Trump, the bipartisan failures that have plagued reform efforts, and why he believes coming out as gay was actually easier than revealing his immigration status. He offers a unique insider's view of working at major outlets like the Washington Post while hiding his legal status, living in constant fear of deportation.The conversation delves into the broader media and political landscape surrounding immigration, with Vargas arguing that Democrats have failed to provide a positive counter-narrative to right-wing messaging that has made anti-immigration sentiment central to Republican identity. He challenges both parties for using immigration as a political football rather than addressing the human reality of 40 million people of Mexican heritage living in America. Vargas advocates for journalism that goes beyond economic impact stories to humanize immigrants' experiences, while grappling with the tension between objective reporting and advocacy journalism. The discussion also touches on America's demographic future, the need for immigrant labor to offset declining birth rates, and whether the nation can reconcile its identity as both a country of immigrants and a Judeo-Christian society.Finally, he answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment regarding the viral Ted Cruz vs Tucker Carlson interview and addresses the conspiracy theory that Starlink hacked voting machines in the 2024 election.Timeline: (Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)00:00 Introduction01:00 Zohran Mamdani beats Andrew Cuomo in NYC mayoral primary02:30 Multiple possible explanations for Mamdani’s victory03:30 Cost of living messaging resonated04:30 This will supercharge the young vs old debate in the party05:30 Will the “democratic socialism” label become a liability for the party?08:00 Moderates rallying around Cuomo made no sense09:00 This should be a wake up call for the Democratic establishment10:00 Democratic voters are looking for “new”11:45 Mamdani fired first shot in battle to rebrand the party13:30 Rallying around Eric Adams would be a bad move for the establishment15:30 Mamdani needs to expand his tent17:30 The big tent illusion - Both parties claim to be "big tent" but aren't 19:15 It's hard to not have a "label" in our current politics 21:00 The Republican party has become a cult of personality 21:45 Politicians can't ever agree with the other side 22:30 The only politicians with a big tent approach are governors 25:00 The coalition that elected Trump is big tent, he isn't governing like it 26:30 Our politics would be healthier if there was four parties 28:00 Politics wasn't designed to be winner-take-all 29:30 Bipartisanship would produce better, more durable legislation 33:30 John Cornyn may drop out, but only if he can stop Ken Paxton 35:45 If Ken Paxton is the nominee, Democrats could win the TX senate seat 37:00 Center-right voters in Texas are homeless 37:45 The TikTok extension via executive order is illegal 38:30 Donald Trump has refused to enforce the law with TikTok 39:45 Politicians are fearful of alienating TikTok users41:30 Jose Antonio Vargas joins the Chuck ToddCast! 42:00 What year did you go public with your undocumented status? 44:00 The atmospheric shift around immigration under Trump 45:30 George W. Bush was much more compassionate to immigrants 46:30 Immigration has been a bipartisan mess 47:30 Immigration has been the central issue in right wing media 49:00 Democrats haven't provided a positive counter narrative 50:15 Being undocumented is living a life of fear 51:45 Nobody at the Washington Post knew he was undocumented 53:30 People following the proper process are being arrested 56:00 Backlash to demographic changes 58:00 White immigrants can hide in plain sight 59:00 Anti-immigration is the currency of the Republican party 01:00:30 Immigration wasn't always covered politically 01:03:30 Jose was shocked he wasn't contacted by ICE 01:04:30 Both parties have used immigration to score political points 01:06:30 Coming out as gay was easier than coming out as undocumented 01:09:00 Obligation to be doing advocacy journalism? 01:11:30 We haven't felt the economic effects of mass deportation yet 01:13:45 Why is it so hard to positively sell immigration to conservatives? 01:16:30 Journalists need to be educators 01:18:15 We live in a post-literate world 01:21:15 Journalism vs Advocacy 01:22:30 Helping people tell immigrant stories 01:25:15 Holding people in power to account 01:26:30 Need for immigrants to compensate for declining birth rates 01:28:00 Immigrant stories rarely get told outside of economic impact 01:31:00 Segregation still exists, but it's in media/information ecosystems 01:32:45 Are we a nation of immigrants or a Judeo-Christian society? 01:37:30 The case for optimism 01:39:15 Journalists need to humanize the immigration issue01:40:45 Chuck's thoughts on interview with Jose Antonio Vargas 01:42:00 Is the rift between Tucker Carlson and Ted Cruz real or manufactured? 01:47:05 When did U.S. politics become so hyperpartisan? 01:52:00 Thoughts on the theory that Starlink tampered with voting machines?
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Trump CHOOSES War With Iran + Jake Tapper On PROBLEM With Electing Older Leaders Like Biden & Trump
Chuck Todd begins by reacting to President Donald Trump’s decision to order airstrikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities. He explains that diplomacy was still on the table, that Israel backed him into a corner, and why he believes that Kamala Harris would have made the same decision if she was president. He highlights the potential ways Iran could strike back, and debates whether this move actually will make the world safer. He also examines the state of the New York mayoral primary and why the Democratic establishment is scared of one particular candidate.Then CNN's Jake Tapper joins Chuck for an in-depth discussion that spans politics, media, and personal insights. The duo discuss Tapper’s bestselling new book “Original Sin” and explore critical questions about journalism's role in vetting political candidates, particularly examining President Biden's age and cognitive health, the media's coverage of his decline, and whether there was a coordinated effort to shield him from scrutiny. They offer their perspectives on Biden's decision to run for re-election, the dynamics surrounding Kamala Harris's selection as VP, and how the political establishment rewards seniority over merit in Congress.Beyond the serious political analysis, the conversation takes a more personal turn as Tapper discusses his approach to social media detox, his upcoming book about Nazi war criminal Klaus Barbie, and his thoughts on political satire from South Park to SNL. They also dive into lighter territory, covering everything from Philadelphia sports fandom and memorabilia collecting to streaming recommendations and the challenges of maintaining work-life balance as a high-profile journalist. This episode offers both sharp political commentary and genuine personal insights from two veteran journalists reflecting on their craft and the current media landscape.Finally, he answers questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment, and reflects on the life of his family dog Ruby after her passing. Timeline:(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)00:00 Introduction01:00 Trump orders attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities02:00 Nobody wants a nuclear arms race in the middle east02:30 Bombing was a choice, there were other options03:45 The consequences will affect the entire globe05:15 Other countries could race toward nukes06:00 Israel cornered the US government into airstrikes07:45 Kamala Harris probably would have ordered the airstrikes*09:15 Israel would have forced the president’s hand either way10:15 Trump didn’t make the case for strikes in remarks to the nation12:00 Iran could strike back asymmetrically 12:45 Congress has been sidelined, this is Trump’s war14:45 Did this make the U.S. and the world safer?17:30 Trump violated the law by not notifying Democrats about the strike19:30 Eric Swalwell issues an alarming statement about 2028 election20:45 NYC mayoral primary will show where the energy in the party is23:00 Mamdani’s candidacy scares the Democratic establishment24:20 Jake Tapper joins the Chuck ToddCast! 25:20 How Jake and Chuck met 29:40 Covid set back younger generation's social development 31:35 Disengaging from social media 33:50 Negative feedback online vs. in-person 35:20 Are politicians constantly suspicious of journalists? 37:20 Give politicians the benefit of the doubt? 38:20 Congress won't pass the STOCK Act 39:05 Biden's decision to run was the "original sin" 40:35 Biden originally ran with his family under duress 42:35 There are myths in the legend of Joe Biden 43:50 Biden's resilience led him to the bad decision to run 44:35 The "blame the media" narrative around Biden 45:50 How should the media change its vetting process for candidates? 47:35 Presidential health reports should be subject to perjury 48:20 Biden never took a cognitive test 49:20 Age cap on politicians requires constitutional amendment 50:20 No evidence that autopen was used 51:35 There's a culture of coddling "too old" members in congress 53:50 The system rewards seniority over accomplishment 55:50 Kay Granger being in a dementia center was covered up 57:20 Loss of local urgency in political coverage 59:20 Older politicians are less invested in the future 1:00:50 In any other sphere, Biden's decline is disqualifying 1:02:20 Was the cover up a lack of faith in Harris? 1:03:35 Harris VP choice was for political reasons, not governing 1:05:20 VP pick was between Harris and Whitmer 1:07:05 The super original sin was Obama endorsing Clinton 1:10:35 Start of Biden's decline can be traced back to Beau's death 1:12:20 Obama has never spoken on Biden's decline 1:14:50 What style of book do you like to write the most? 1:18:05 Jake's next book is about Klaus Barbie 1:19:05 Best current political satire? 1:22:35 South Park is the best at capturing the culture 1:24:20 Trump bit on SNL is worn out 1:26:20 Jake's streaming recommendations 1:30:20 Does Jake ever stop working? 1:31:50 Staying off social media 1:33:20 Journalists shouldn't be celebrities 1:34:35 Which Philly sports team will you follow even if they suck? 1:36:50 Collecting sports memorabilia 1:39:05 The entire SEC cheated 1:40:20 The long form podcast format vs short TV interviews 1:43:20 The public's reaction to "Original Sin" 1:45:20 Trump has been backed into a corner with Iran1:48:00 Chuck's thoughts on the interview Jake Tapper 1:48:30 Ask Chuck - Who would you put on Mt. Rushmore of DC media figures? 1:51:30 What should happen with the Nats after getting swept by the Rockies? 1:53:45 Chuck remembers his family dog Ruby. Rest in peace.
The Chuck ToddCast is back! If you're looking for smart, no-nonsense political conversation, you've come to the right place. The Chuck ToddCast goes beyond the headlines, featuring conversations with top reporters, insiders, and newsmakers from D.C. to the heartland. No scripts, no spin—just real discussions about what’s shaping our politics and why it matters.
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