STREAMING MAKING OF JBS, FEATURING THADDEUS MCCOTTER, 5-26-26.
1919 VERSAILLES AFTERWARD.
The current conflict in the Strait of Hormuz is described as a "tangle of talking, fighting, and arguing." While President Trump recently suggested he was "close to clinching" a major deal with Iran, the situation remains volatile; shortly after those remarks, the US bombed Iranian missile launch sites and boats to counter threats in the Strait. These military actions highlight the tenuous nature of mediation efforts aimed at securing a 60-day ceasefire, which would ideally reopen the waterway and lay the foundation for future nuclear talks. Host John Batchelor compares these ongoing negotiations to those of the Korean conflict, which began in 1950 and has yet to reach a final resolution.
Thaddeus McCotter argues that the US administration has failed to effectively communicate its concrete war aims, leading to domestic confusion. While the administration originally cited Iran's suspect nuclear weapons program as the primary casus belli in February, the focus has shifted toward the economic impact of the Strait's closure. The closure has left hundreds of ships marooned, threatening the global supply chain for fertilizer and high-end goods. McCotter notes that most Americans are "practical people" who judge the conflict based on the cost of living and prices at the gas pump, which will ultimately be an "accounting" factor in the upcoming November elections.
The Iranian regime is viewed by McCotter as an untrustworthy partner that treats its nuclear program as an "umbrella" to shield its exportation of terrorism and regional destabilization. He suggests that Iran believes "time is on their side" and may be using economic pain as leverage during the US election cycle. There is also concern that the US may be transitioning toward "tolerating nukes in Tehran" if it cannot find a way to destroy Iran's ability to recreate its nuclear program "root and branch."
Domestically, President Trump is "playing a hot hand," using his influence to shape the Republican Party's future through primary endorsements. For instance, he endorsed Ken Paxton against John Cornyn in Texas, signaling an effort to define the party's standard-bearers for 2027. McCotter observes that while Trump has been successful in these primaries, the real test will be whether that success translates to the general election in November.
Looking ahead to 2028, the conversation anticipates a "lame duck" period in which legislative agendas may stall if the opposition captures Congress. The Republican succession battle is expected to involve figures heavily identified with Trump, such as Marco Rubio and J.D. Vance. McCotter predicts that Trump's personality will lead him to "anoint" a successor, much as Andrew Jackson did with Martin Van Buren, rather than remaining neutral in the selection process. This political maneuvering is happening against a backdrop of ongoing "kinetic engagement" in the Middle East that lacks broad public attention or clear objectives.