The John Batchelor Show

SHOW 12-2-2026 THE SHOW BEGIJS WITH DOUBTS ABOUT AI --  a useful invetion that can match the excitement of the first decades of Photography. November 1955 NADAR'S BALLOON AND THE BIRTH OF PHOTOGRAPHY Colleague Anika Burgess, Flashes of Brilliance. In 1863, the photographer Nadar undertook a perilous ascent in a giant balloon to fund experiments for heavier-than-air flight, illustrating the adventurous spirit required of early photographers. This era began with Daguerre's 1839 introduction of the daguerreotype, a process involving highly dangerous chemicals like mercury and iodine to create unique, mirror-like images on copper plates. Pioneers risked their lives using explosive materials to capture reality with unprecedented clarity and permanence. NUMBER 1 PHOTOGRAPHING THE MOON AND SEA Colleague Anika Burgess, Flashes of Brilliance. Early photography expanded scientific understanding, allowing humanity to visualize the inaccessible. James Nasmyth produced realistic images of the moon by photographing plaster models based on telescope observations, aiming to prove its volcanic nature. Simultaneously, Louis Boutan spent a decade perfecting underwater photography, capturing divers in hard-hat helmets. These efforts demonstrated that photography could be a tool for scientific analysis and discovery, revealing details of the natural world previously hidden from the human eye. NUMBER 2 SOCIAL JUSTICE AND NATURE CONSERVATION Colleague Anika Burgess, Flashes of Brilliance. Photography became a powerful agent for social and environmental change. Jacob Riis utilized dangerous flash powder to document the squalid conditions of Manhattan tenements, exposing poverty to the public in How the Other Half Lives. While his methods raised consent issues, they illuminated grim realities. Conversely, Carleton Watkins hauled massive equipment into the wilderness to photograph Yosemite; his majestic images influenced legislation signed by Lincoln to protect the land, proving photography's political impact. NUMBER 3 X-RAYS, SURVEILLANCE, AND MOTION Colleague Anika Burgess, Flashes of Brilliance. The discovery of X-rays in 1895 sparked a "new photography" craze, though the radiation caused severe injuries to early practitioners and subjects. Photography also entered the realm of surveillance; British authorities used hidden cameras to photograph suffragettes, while doctors documented asylum patients without consent. Finally, Eadweard Muybridge's experiments captured horses in motion, settling debates about locomotion and laying the technical groundwork for the future development of motion pictures. NUMBER 4 THE AWAKENING OF CHINA'S ECONOMY Colleague Anne Stevenson-Yang, Wild Ride. Returning to China in 1994, the author witnessed a transformation from the destitute, Maoist uniformity of 1985 to a budding export economy. In the earlier era, workers slept on desks and lacked basic goods, but Deng Xiaoping's realization that the state needed hard currency prompted reforms. Deng established Special Economic Zones like Shenzhen to generate foreign capital while attempting to isolate the population from foreign influence, marking the start of China's export boom. NUMBER 5 RED CAPITALISTS AND SMUGGLERS Colleague Anne Stevenson-Yang, Wild Ride. Following the 1989 Tiananmen crackdown, China reopened to investment in 1992, giving rise to "red capitalists"—often the children of party officials who traded political access for equity. As the central government lost control over local corruption and smuggling rings, it launched "Golden Projects" to digitize and centralize authority over customs and taxes. To avert a banking collapse in 1998, the state created asset management companies to absorb bad loans, effectively rolling over massive debt. NUMBER 6 GHOST CITIES AND THE STIMULUS TRAP Colleague Anne Stevenson-Yang, Wild Ride. China's growth model shifted toward massive infrastructure spending, resulting in "ghost cities" and replica Western towns built to inflate GDP rather than house people. This "Potemkin culture" peaked during the 2008 Olympics, where facades were painted to impress foreigners. To counter the global financial crisis, Beijing flooded the economy with loans, fueling a real estate bubble that consumed more cement in three years than the US did in a century, creating unsustainable debt. NUMBER 7 STAGNATION UNDER SURVEILLANCE Colleague Anne Stevenson-Yang, Wild Ride. The severe lockdowns of the COVID-19 pandemic shattered consumer confidence, leaving citizens insecure and unwilling to spend, which stalled economic recovery. Local governments, cut off from credit and burdened by debt, struggle to provide basic services. Faced with economic stagnation, Xi Jinping has rejected market liberalization in favor of increased surveillance and control, prioritizing regime security over resolving the structural debt crisis or restoring the dynamism of previous decades. NUMBER 8 FAMINE AND FLIGHT TO FREEDOM Colleague Mark Clifford, The Troublemaker. Jimmy Lai was born into a wealthy family that lost everything to the Communist revolution, forcing his father to flee to Hong Kong while his mother endured labor camps. Left behind, Lai survived as a child laborer during a devastating famine where he was perpetually hungry. A chance encounter with a traveler who gave him a chocolate bar inspired him to escape to Hong Kong, the "land of chocolate," stowing away on a boat at age twelve. NUMBER 9 THE FACTORY GUY Colleague Mark Clifford, The Troublemaker. By 1975, Jimmy Lai had risen from a child laborer to a factory owner, purchasing a bankrupt garment facility using stock market profits. Despite being a primary school dropout who learned English from a dictionary, Lai succeeded through relentless work and charm. He capitalized on the boom in American retail sourcing, winning orders from Kmart by producing samples overnight and eventually building Comitex into a leading sweater manufacturer, embodying the Hong Kong dream. NUMBER 10 CONSCIENCE AND CONVERSION Colleague Mark Clifford, The Troublemaker. The 1989 Tiananmen Squaremassacre radicalized Lai, who transitioned from textiles to media, founding Next magazine and Apple Daily to champion democracy. Realizing the brutality of the Chinese Communist Party, he used his wealth to support the student movement and expose regime corruption. As the 1997 handover approached, Lai converted to Catholicism, influenced by his wife and pro-democracy peers, seeking spiritual protection and a moral anchor against the coming political storm. NUMBER 11 PRISON AND LAWFARE Colleague Mark Clifford, The Troublemaker. Following the 2020 National Security Law, authorities raided Apple Daily, froze its assets, and arrested Lai, forcing the newspaper to close. Despite having the means to flee, Lai chose to stay and face imprisonment as a testament to his principles. Now held in solitary confinement, he is subjected to "lawfare"—sham legal proceedings designed to silence him—while he spends his time sketching religious images, remaining a symbol of resistance against Beijing's tyranny. NUMBER 12 FOUNDING OPENAI Colleague Keach Hagey, The Optimist. In 2016, Sam Altman, Greg Brockman, and Ilya Sutskever founded OpenAI as a nonprofit research lab to develop safe artificial general intelligence (AGI). Backed by investors like Elon Musk and Peter Thiel, the organization aimed to be a counterweight to Google's DeepMind, which was driven by profit. The team relied on massive computing power provided by GPUs—originally designed for video games—to train neural networks, recruiting top talent like Sutskever to lead their scientific efforts. NUMBER 13 THE ROOTS OF AMBITION Colleague Keach Hagey, The Optimist. Sam Altman grew up in St. Louis, the son of an idealistic developer and a driven dermatologist mother who instilled ambition and resilience in her children. Altmanattended the progressive John Burroughs School, where his intellect and charisma flourished, allowing him to connect with people on any topic. Though he was a tech enthusiast, his ability to charm others defined him early on, foreshadowing his future as a master persuader in Silicon Valley. NUMBER 14 SILICON VALLEY KINGMAKER Colleague Keach Hagey, The Optimist. At Stanford, Altman co-founded Loopt, a location-sharing app that won him a meeting with Steve Jobs and a spot in the App Store launch. While Loopt was not a commercial success, the experience taught Altman that his true talent lay in investing and spotting future trends rather than coding. He eventually succeeded Paul Graham as president of Y Combinator, becoming a powerful figure in Silicon Valley who could convince skeptics like Peter Thiel to back his visions. NUMBER 15 THE BLIP AND THE FUTURE Colleague Keach Hagey, The Optimist. The viral success of ChatGPT shifted OpenAI's focus from safety to commercialization, despite early internal warnings about the existential risks of AGI. Tensions over safety and Altman's management style led to a "blip" where the nonprofit board fired him, only for him to be quickly reinstated due to employee loyalty. Elon Musk, having lost a power struggle for control of the organization, severed ties, leaving Altman to lead the race toward AGI. 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THE BLIP AND THE FUTURE Colleague Keach Hagey, The Optimist. The viral success of ChatGPT shifted OpenAI's focus from safety to commercialization, despite early internal warnings about the existential risks of AGI. Tensions over safety and Altman's management style led to a "blip" where the nonprofit board fired him, only for him to be quickly reinstated due to employee loyalty. Elon Musk, having lost a power struggle for control of the organization, severed ties, leaving Altman to lead the race toward AGI. NUMBER 16 FEBRUARY 1955

SILICON VALLEY KINGMAKER Colleague Keach Hagey, The Optimist. At Stanford, Altman co-founded Loopt, a location-sharing app that won him a meeting with Steve Jobs and a spot in the App Store launch. While Loopt was not a commercial success, the experience taught Altman that his true talent lay in investing and spotting future trends rather than coding. He eventually succeeded Paul Graham as president of Y Combinator, becoming a powerful figure in Silicon Valley who could convince skeptics like Peter Thiel to back his visions. NUMBER 15 SEPTEMBER 1952

THE ROOTS OF AMBITION Colleague Keach Hagey, The Optimist. Sam Altman grew up in St. Louis, the son of an idealistic developer and a driven dermatologist mother who instilled ambition and resilience in her children. Altmanattended the progressive John Burroughs School, where his intellect and charisma flourished, allowing him to connect with people on any topic. Though he was a tech enthusiast, his ability to charm others defined him early on, foreshadowing his future as a master persuader in Silicon Valley. NUMBER 14 JANUARY 1931

FOUNDING OPENAI Colleague Keach Hagey, The Optimist. In 2016, Sam Altman, Greg Brockman, and Ilya Sutskever founded OpenAI as a nonprofit research lab to develop safe artificial general intelligence (AGI). Backed by investors like Elon Musk and Peter Thiel, the organization aimed to be a counterweight to Google's DeepMind, which was driven by profit. The team relied on massive computing power provided by GPUs—originally designed for video games—to train neural networks, recruiting top talent like Sutskever to lead their scientific efforts. NUMBER 13 1955