AIB Market Talk

Join Jane Kavanagh from AIB's Corporate Treasury desk alongside David McNamara, Chief Economist, for this latest edition of AIB Market Talk. Using AIB's latest Irish Economic Outlook as the foundation, Jane and David unpack the key insights, exploring the global backdrop and the risks shaping growth, inflation and consumer behaviour in the year ahead.
In this episode the panel discusses:
Global resilience entering 2026, supported by strong performance, modest tariffs, and on-going AI-led investment
Shifts in the outlook driven by geopolitical tension, particularly in the Middle East, and implications for oil and inflation
Ireland's performance, with volatile GDP driven by exports and stronger focus on underlying domestic demand
Growth outlook moderating but remaining resilient, supported by a still-strong labour market
Inflation expected to rise to 4%, driven by energy costs but well below 2022 peaks
High exposure to energy shocks due to reliance on imported fossil fuels, highlighting need for long-term resilience
Consumer spending still growing, but with increasing caution as inflation impacts disposable income
Labour market remaining robust, with slower job growth and emerging signs of AI-related shifts
Housing and investment outlook improving, supported by government policy, though supply remains below demand
Overall outlook remains resilient, with strong public finances and economic fundamentals despite uncertainty
Read the AIB Irish Economic Outlook here: Irish Economic Outlook May 2026
Visit our website and subscribe to receive AIB's Economic Analysis direct to your inbox. Our full legal disclaimer can be viewed here https://aib.ie/fxcentre/podcast-disclaimer.

Registered in Ireland: No: 24173 
Allied Irish Bank p.l.c is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland
AIB Customer Treasury Services is a registered business name of Allied Irish Banks, p.l.c. Registered Office: 10 Molesworth Street, Dublin 2

Join Jane Kavanagh from AIB’s Corporate Treasury desk, alongside John Fahey, Senior Economist, and Pat O’Sullivan, Head of Real Estate Research, for this edition of AIB Market Talk. The discussion explores recent global market developments and what they mean for Ireland’s construction, housing and real estate sectors.
In this episode, the panel discusses:
The impact of geopolitical tensions on global markets, including energy prices, inflation expectations, interest rates and currency movements 
Diverging signals across financial markets, with equity markets showing resilience while interest rate markets continue to price inflation risks 
What the latest Irish Construction PMIs reveal about activity levels, new orders, employment trends and sector confidence 
Developments in the Irish housing market, including price trends, regional differences, supply constraints and affordability pressures 
Progress on housing supply, with a focus on apartment construction, government policy interventions and planning reforms 
The role of the National Development Plan and infrastructure investment in supporting future housing delivery 
Supports available to first-time buyers and what the medium-term outlook looks like for housing supply and demand
Read the AIB Ireland Construction PMI® here.
 
Visit our website and subscribe to receive AIB's Economic Analysis direct to your inbox. Our full legal disclaimer can be viewed here https://aib.ie/fxcentre/podcast-disclaimer.

Registered in Ireland: No: 24173 
Allied Irish Bank p.l.c is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland
AIB Customer Treasury Services is a registered business name of Allied Irish Banks, p.l.c. Registered Office: 10 Molesworth Street, Dublin 2

Join Jane Kavanagh from AIB’s Corporate Treasury desk, AIB Chief Economist David McNamara, Donal Whelton, Head of Agriculture & Food Manufacturing with AIB Business Banking, and Patrick Higgins, Head of Consumer Research, Food & Beverage at Goodbody, for this edition of AIB Market Talk focusing on Ireland’s agriculture and food manufacturing sector.
In this episode, the panel discusses:
How the agriculture and food manufacturing sector entered 2026 from a position of financial strength following a robust 2025
The impact of global geopolitical developments on energy, commodity prices, inflation, and interest rate expectations
Rising input costs, fertiliser availability, and energy price volatility, and what this means for farmers and food manufacturers
Financial resilience across the sector, including liquidity levels, balance sheet strength, and cash flow considerations
Evolving consumer behaviour and demand trends, including health, nutrition, and protein consumption
Sustainability and climate transition challenges facing the sector, including emissions reduction targets, and changing farming practices
Key risks and opportunities for Irish agri‑food producers and manufacturers in 2026, including regulatory uncertainty and longer‑term competitiveness
Visit our website and subscribe to receive AIB's Economic Analysis direct to your inbox. Our full legal disclaimer can be viewed here https://aib.ie/fxcentre/podcast-disclaimer.

Registered in Ireland: No: 24173 
Allied Irish Bank p.l.c is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland
AIB Customer Treasury Services is a registered business name of Allied Irish Banks, p.l.c. Registered Office: 10 Molesworth Street, Dublin 2

Join Jane Kavanagh from AIB’s Corporate Treasury desk, AIB Chief Economist David McNamara, and Jonathan Clarke, Head of Hospitality, Tourism & Leisure with AIB Business Banking, for the first Market Talk podcast of 2026.

In this wide‑ranging episode, the panel reflects on how the Irish economy and key sectors performed through a challenging 2025 and shares their outlook for 2026 amid ongoing geopolitical uncertainty and shifting market dynamics. Tune in for:
A deep dive into Ireland’s hospitality and tourism sector, including a slow start to 2025 followed by a strong rebound in visitor numbers and consumer spending
Insights into changing consumer behaviour, premiumisation trends, and the challenges facing pubs, restaurants, and rural hospitality businesses
An overview of Ireland’s domestic economic resilience, labour market strength, and how Ireland compares with global peers
Global market perspectives covering the US, Eurozone, UK, and Asia, with a focus on growth trends, equity markets, and investor sentiment
Central bank outlooks for the ECB, Bank of England, and Federal Reserve, including expectations for interest rate cuts in 2026
Currency market analysis, including euro/dollar and euro/sterling forecasts and what exporters should watch
Discussion on US trade policy, tariffs, and what recent developments mean for Ireland and European trade
A forward-looking view on tourism demand, hotel supply, cost pressures, and why the sector remains cautiously optimistic for the year ahead
Stay informed with expert analysis and practical outlooks for the new year. Subscribe to AIB Market Talk for ongoing financial market insights.
AIB Economic Analysis - https://aib.ie/fxcentre
AIB Business Banking Hospitality - https://aib.ie/business/sector-expertise/hospitality

Visit our website and subscribe to receive AIB's Economic Analysis direct to your inbox. Our full legal disclaimer can be viewed here https://aib.ie/fxcentre/podcast-disclaimer.

Registered in Ireland: No: 24173 
Allied Irish Bank p.l.c is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland
AIB Customer Treasury Services is a registered business name of Allied Irish Banks, p.l.c. Registered Office: 10 Molesworth Street, Dublin 2

Join Jane Kavanagh from AIB’s Corporate Treasury desk and AIB Senior Economist John Fahey for the final Market Talk podcast of 2025. In this special year-end episode, they reflect on a year dominated by uncertainty, trade tensions, and shifting central bank policies. Tune in for:
A recap of 2025’s biggest market themes, including the impact of US tariffs and global trade agreements.
Insights into central bank decisions: Fed, ECB, and Bank of England rate moves and what’s next for 2026.
Currency market highlights: Dollar weakness, euro resilience, and sterling’s rollercoaster year.
Forward-looking views on economic growth, inflation, and what could shape the markets in the year ahead.
Quick-fire predictions for euro/dollar and euro/sterling pairs.
Stay informed with expert analysis and practical outlooks for the new year. Subscribe to AIB Market Talk for ongoing financial market insights.
Visit our website and subscribe to receive AIB's Economic Analysis direct to your inbox. Our full legal disclaimer can be viewed here https://aib.ie/fxcentre/podcast-disclaimer.

Registered in Ireland: No: 24173 
Allied Irish Bank p.l.c is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland
AIB Customer Treasury Services is a registered business name of Allied Irish Banks, p.l.c. Registered Office: 10 Molesworth Street, Dublin 2