AIB Market Talk

Join Jane Kavanagh from AIB’s Corporate Treasury desk and AIB Senior Economist John Fahey for the final Market Talk podcast of 2025. In this special year-end episode, they reflect on a year dominated by uncertainty, trade tensions, and shifting central bank policies. Tune in for:A recap of 2025’s biggest market themes, including the impact of US tariffs and global trade agreements.Insights into central bank decisions: Fed, ECB, and Bank of England rate moves and what’s next for 2026.Currency market highlights: Dollar weakness, euro resilience, and sterling’s rollercoaster year.Forward-looking views on economic growth, inflation, and what could shape the markets in the year ahead.Quick-fire predictions for euro/dollar and euro/sterling pairs.Stay informed with expert analysis and practical outlooks for the new year. Subscribe to AIB Market Talk for ongoing financial market insights.Visit our website and subscribe to receive AIB's Economic Analysis direct to your inbox. Our full legal disclaimer can be viewed here https://aib.ie/fxcentre/podcast-disclaimer. Registered in Ireland: No: 24173 Allied Irish Bank p.l.c is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland AIB Customer Treasury Services is a registered business name of Allied Irish Banks, p.l.c. Registered Office: 10 Molesworth Street, Dublin 2

Join host Jason Rehill from the AIB Treasury Services team, alongside AIB Senior Economist John Fahey, and special guest Pat O’Sullivan, Head of AIB Real Estate Finance Research, as they discuss the final Construction PMI survey reports for 2025 in this special episode of AIB Market Talk.Tune in as they discuss: The key aspects of the construction index number with commercial and residential construction falling below 50 in November with activity losing momentum. The Irish CRE market which has fallen by both 30 - 40% giving a significant decline seen since the 1970s.Employment growth and firms pushing to return to high-quality office space are supporting selective demand, particularly for prime assets. However, vacancy rates remain elevated, and financing conditions are still tight.Ireland’s commercial property offering some of the highest yields in Europe, attracting renewed investor interest after recent value corrections.A review into what the construction sector should look like in 2026.Visit our website and subscribe to receive AIB's Economic Analysis direct to your inbox. Our full legal disclaimer can be viewed here https://aib.ie/fxcentre/podcast-disclaimer. Registered in Ireland: No: 24173 Allied Irish Bank p.l.c is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland AIB Customer Treasury Services is a registered business name of Allied Irish Banks, p.l.c. Registered Office: 10 Molesworth Street, Dublin 2

Join host Jonathan Weir from AIB Treasury and AIB Chief Economist Dave McNamara for the latest PMIs edition of AIB Market Talk. In this episode, they delve into the November AIB Ireland Manufacturing and Services PMI data, exploring:How both sectors bounced back, with manufacturing and services posting robust growth after a softer patch earlier in the year.The key drivers behind the manufacturing recovery, including renewed export orders and the easing of tariff uncertainty.What’s fuelling the fastest expansion in services sector activity since April 2022 and why employment trends are diverging between sectors.The first rise in transport, tourism, and leisure in 10 months, and the evolving impact of AI on technology, media, and telecom employment.Insights into inflation pressures, input costs, and what the latest PMI figures signal for Ireland’s economic outlook as we head into 2026. Tune in for expert analysis, forward-looking business sentiment, and all the latest market insights, only on AIB Market Talk.Visit our website and subscribe to receive AIB's Economic Analysis direct to your inbox. Our full legal disclaimer can be viewed here https://aib.ie/fxcentre/podcast-disclaimer. Registered in Ireland: No: 24173 Allied Irish Bank p.l.c is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland AIB Customer Treasury Services is a registered business name of Allied Irish Banks, p.l.c. Registered Office: 10 Molesworth Street, Dublin 2

Join host Cormac Cunnane from the AIB Treasury team and AIB Chief Economist David McNamara as they break down the latest Economic Outlook report:Ireland’s growth forecast is revised up, with strong domestic demand and resilient multinationals.Tariff risks have eased, with effective rates lower than expected and key sectors shielded.Labour market growth is slowing, but wage growth remains solid.Risks are more balanced, with inflation and global events still in focus.This edition’s theme: AI’s early impact on growth, jobs, and productivity. Stay informed and subscribe for more expert insights on Ireland’s economy and financial markets.Visit our website and subscribe to receive AIB's Economic Analysis direct to your inbox. Our full legal disclaimer can be viewed here https://aib.ie/fxcentre/podcast-disclaimer. Registered in Ireland: No: 24173 Allied Irish Bank p.l.c is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland AIB Customer Treasury Services is a registered business name of Allied Irish Banks, p.l.c. Registered Office: 10 Molesworth Street, Dublin 2

In this episode of AIB Market Talk, host Joanne McCabe from AIB’s Customer Treasury Services team is joined by Senior Economist John Fahey to unpack the latest developments in global financial markets.Tune in as they discuss:The outcomes of recent ECB, Bank of England, and Federal Reserve meetings, including policy decisions and market surprises.Why the ECB remains steady, the Fed delivered a rate cut but with less dovish guidance, and the Bank of England signals a possible cut in December.The impact of the US government shutdown on monetary policy and market data, and how its resolution could influence the Fed’s next move.Currency market trends, with a focus on the US dollar’s renewed momentum, euro-dollar forecasts, and the factors shaping sterling’s outlook ahead of the UK budget.Insights into interest rate expectations for the eurozone, US, UK, and Japan, and what these mean for investors and businesses as we approach year-end.Whether you’re a business leader, investor, or simply keen to stay informed, this episode delivers expert analysis on the forces driving today’s markets. Subscribe to AIB Market Talk for regular updates and insights from AIB’s team of specialists.Visit our website and subscribe to receive AIB's Economic Analysis direct to your inbox. Our full legal disclaimer can be viewed here https://aib.ie/fxcentre/podcast-disclaimer. Registered in Ireland: No: 24173 Allied Irish Bank p.l.c is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland AIB Customer Treasury Services is a registered business name of Allied Irish Banks, p.l.c. Registered Office: 10 Molesworth Street, Dublin 2