Drop Site Livestream

Eight months into the US-Iran war, the Strait of Hormuz is still contested—and the oil shock nearly everyone predicted never arrived.
Gregory Brew, senior energy analyst at Eurasia Group and a historian of modern Iran, explains why crude sits in the $90–$110 band instead of $250: alternative pipeline routes, high global inventories, a steep cut in Chinese imports, and an oil market practiced at absorbing shocks. He also breaks down the US escort operation moving 9 to 10 million barrels a day through the strait—supertankers running dark through the Omani channel—and why he calls it a Band-Aid.Also: the attack on Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline, Iranian production down to 2 million barrels a day, record US diesel prices ahead of the midterms, and why Brew expects Tehran to escalate rather than capitulate.
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Chapters:
0:00 Intro: Gregory Brew on the Oil War
0:22 Why the $250 Oil Catastrophe Never Came
4:59 7-Day Regional Oil Exports Average ~17 Million Barrels
9:18 Supertankers Going Dark Through the Omani Channel
11:41 How Long Can US Navy Keep Up Its Escort Operation Through Strait?
15:08 Qatar's LNG Problem
17:46 Yemen and the Attack on the East-West Pipeline
22:47 Iran's Oil Is Running Out — Will It Capitulate?
30:42 How Iran May Escalate
35:13 Diesel at Record Highs and PossibleExport Ban
39:37 Global Economy: Can it Absorb Another Year of This?
43:55 The Future of US-Iran Relations
48:55 A Divided GCC and the Case for Accommodating Iran
51:25 Closing
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In this week’s episode of The War Brief Murtaza Hussain and Sarmad discuss the steady stream of leaks coming out of the War Department, the real number of deaths to U.S. personnel, the high and ongoing price of war against Iran, Saudi Arabia potentially turning to Israel for aid, how Ansarallah managed to shoot down a F-15A fighter jet, and more. Murtaza then discusses why Saudi Arabia, and the Gulf Arab states, cannot put together an effective fighting force.
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Ryan Grim interviews Yemeni journalist Hussain Al-Bukhaiti on the state of the conflict in Yemen. Al-Bukhaiti told Drop Site that Saudi-backed forces in eastern areas of Al-Jawf are essentially driving around empty desert for the cameras and presenting it as an advance.“They just go to an open area and keep shooting at a hill or a small mountain, and there’s no one there,” he said, adding that the forces are also “sitting ducks” for Ansarallah fighters who hold all the key high ground in the west of the province.Albukhaiti also predicted that oil- and gas-rich Marib province will fall “exactly like Mocha,” saying it “could be easier” because Ansarallah has already sharply limited Saudi air cover.
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00:00–01:01 — Saudi Arabia and Ansarallah Escalate
01:02–03:09 — Advice for MBS & Why Saudi Arabia Broke the 2022 Truce
03:10–05:52 — Ansarallah’s New Demands for Riyadh
05:53–09:22 — What’s Happening in Al-Jawf
09:23–16:10 — Why Saudi-Backed Forces Collapsed on Yemen’s West Coast
16:11–20:41 — Why Ansarallah Went on the Offensive
20:42–26:00 — The Battle for Marib and Ansarallah’s Strategy
26:01–34:39 — Could Saudi Arabia Lose Territory?
34:40–35:52 — Iran, the U.S. and Ansarallah’s Regional Strategy
35:53–38:19 — Red Sea Shipping and Bab al-Mandab
38:20–43:17 — Why Ansarallah Is Detaining UN Aid Workers
43:18–43:42 — Journalism and Closing Remarks


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In the first episode of War Brief, Murtaza Hussain and Sarmad Jawad dig into the latest military updates from around the world, including China's positive overtures to Iran, Donald Trump once again threatening Iran with tactical nuclear weapons, Iran's successful attack on a U.S. military base in Jordan, and more.
We then deep dive into what went into making Ansarallah's drive to capture western Yemen successful. The War Brief is a new show by Drop Site News that covers all things related to major armed conflicts and wars around the world.
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FOLLOW Drop Site News for more independent news on war and politicsStay INFORMED on our latest reporting: DropSiteNews.com
WATCH our weekly live show, streaming every TUESDAY morning, on Substack, YouTube, and X
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To help support our work, please consider upgrading to a paid subscription, it’s what fuels our reporting: https://www.dropsitenews.com/subscribe
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Twenty-five years after 9/11, the United States is again fighting a major war in the Middle East. Drop Site’s Ryan Grim and Murtaza Hussain speak with Vali Nasr, professor of international affairs and Middle East studies at Johns Hopkins SAIS and a former senior adviser in the Obama administration, and Rob Malley, a senior fellow at Yale’s Jackson School of Global Affairs, former U.S. special envoy for Iran, longtime Middle East peace negotiator, and head of the Middle East program at the International Crisis Group.
The conversation covers Ansarallah’s advance in Yemen, the battle over the Strait of Hormuz, Iran and the US duel strategies of economic pressure, the future of U.S. military bases in the Gulf, the collapse of the JCPOA, Iran’s nuclear calculations, and whether Washington has learned the lessons of Iraq, Afghanistan and the broader post-9/11 wars.
0:00 Intro: Oil Tops $105, Saudi-Backed Forces Collapse in Yemen2:35 How Ansarallah Swept Western Yemen, and Why Now5:23 Vali Nasr: Iran Will Break Trump’s “New Normal” Before the Midterms10:50 Can Trump Sustain a Low-Grade War for Two More Years?17:05 Gulf Disillusionment, From the Iraq War to the JCPOA20:45 Is American Protection in the Gulf Breaking Down?23:17 The Gulf’s Two Failed Wagers: U.S. Bases and Détente With Iran28:55 The Lessons of Losing Wars: Vietnam, Iraq, Afghanistan, Iran30:05 Who Warned Trump? A Broken Decision-Making Process33:44 What Iran Would Accept to End the War39:16 Why the 14-Point MOU Collapsed42:53 Malley: Failed Wars Have Heavier Consequences47:16 25 Years After 9/11: Has Washington Learned Anything?52:22 Malley: Why Iran May Now Want a Bomb54:45 Nuclear Debate Inside Iran 58:06 Is the U.S. Basing System in the Gulf Coming to an End?1:03:23 Closing Thoughts and Book Recommendations


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