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The U.S. military escalation in the Strait of Hormuz is taking center stage as President Donald Trump contemplates whether to resume the war against Iran. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said on Tuesday that the ceasefire remains in effect despite some limited military activity since Trump announced Sunday that the U.S. would begin an operation to “guide” merchant vessels from the Strait of Hormuz. Iran has declared that it remains in full control of the management of the Strait and is proceeding with consolidating a new regime of rules governing transit.
A senior Iranian official told Drop Site that Tehran believes a resumption of the war is highly likely and that it would include operations along Iran’s coastline and potentially strikes aimed at assassinating Iranian military and political leadership. Iranian military officials say they have been preparing to resume their retaliatory attacks across the Persian Gulf and attacks against Israel. Indirect negotiations between the U.S. and Iran are ongoing, but Trump has denounced recent Iranian proposals, saying, “they have not yet paid a big enough price.” Tehran charges that the U.S. is issuing maximalist demands and Iran has no intention of capitulating. “Project Freedom is Project Deadlock,” Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi wrote on X on Monday, referring to the new U.S. military operations in the Strait. “Events in Hormuz make clear that there’s no military solution to a political crisis. As talks are making progress with Pakistan’s gracious effort, the U.S. should be wary of being dragged back into [a] quagmire by ill-wishers.”
On the Drop Site News livestream, Jeremy Scahill and Ryan Grim speak to Abas Aslani, Senior Research Fellow at the Center for Middle East Strategic Studies in Tehran about the latest developments. Aslani describes Iran’s position on negotiations, the future of the Strait of Hormuz, the current decision making process in Tehran and the economic realities facing both Iran and the U.S.


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The United Arab Emirates announced on Tuesday it will leave OPEC effective May 1, ending its membership in the oil cartel that dates to 1967 and removing the group’s third-largest energy producer.
Drop Site’s Ryan Grim, Sharif Abdel Kouddous, and Maysa Mustafa discuss the implications of the move.
They are also joined by Jacquline Sweet to discuss her latest investigation revealing the highest paid employees of the Israeli group running the infamous doxxing site Canary Mission.
And as Israeli attacks on Lebanon continue with daily airstrikes, shelling and demolition in the south, NYU journalism professor Mohamad Bazzi joins to discuss Israel’s 50-year war on Lebanon, Hezbollah’s increasing use of fiber optic FPV drones as a tactic of asymmetric warfare, Israel’s campaign of destruction and erasure in southern Lebanon, and more.


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Uncertainty remains over whether a new round of talks between the U.S. and Iran will take place in Pakistan before the ceasefire agreement between the two countries is set to expire on Wednesday. As of Tuesday afternoon, there has been no official confirmation from either Washington or Tehran on whether the talks will happen.
Drop Site’s Ryan Grim and Jeremy Scahill discuss the current state of play, President Donald Trump’s comments, Iran’s view of the negotiations, and how developments in the Strait of Hormuz over the weekend exacerbated tensions. They also play clips of Jeremy’s interview with prominent Iranian analyst Hassan Ahmadian, Associate Professor of Middle East Studies at Tehran University.



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The war against Iran launched by the U.S. and Israel on February 28 has not gone according to plan. What was initially portrayed as a quick regime change action that would destroy the Islamic Republic and spark a domestic uprising soon morphed into a war of attrition in which Iran stunned the U.S., Israel, and international observers. Six weeks after the opening strikes that assassinated much of Iran’s leadership, it is President Donald Trump who appears desperate to find an exit. The Iran war is now at a definitive crossroads and the coming days will prove decisive.
While the U.S. and Israel have pounded Iran with massive airstrikes, killing more than 3,300 people, Tehran has inflicted unprecedented damage on U.S. military infrastructure across the Persian Gulf. It forced the evacuation of more than a dozen military bases and other facilities and repeatedly hit Israel with ballistic missile and drone strikes, despite daily claims by the U.S. and Israel that its weapons capacity had been all but wiped out. Iran’s consolidation of control over the strategically-vital Strait of Hormuz has proven a potent symbol of its ability to impact not only the global economy, but to accentuate the political and strategic crisis Trump faces.
The two-week ceasefire agreed between the U.S. and Iran on April 7 is set to expire on Wednesday. Tehran was deeply skeptical of accepting a temporary agreement with the U.S. Twice in one year, the U.S. and Israel launched massive military attacks against Iran in the middle of supposed negotiations. Iranian officials and analysts have consistently said they believe that scenario is likely to be repeated. But Iran ultimately moved forward with the Islamabad talks, after concluding that it had a stronger negotiating position than at any point since the 2015 nuclear agreement was voided in 2018 by Trump during his first term as president.
In a wide-ranging interview, Drop Site’s Jeremy Scahill spoke with Iranian analyst Dr. Hassan Ahmadian, Associate Professor of Middle East Studies at Tehran University. Since the war began, Ahmadian has become one of the most prominent Iranian commentators in the Islamic world because of his viral appearances on Al Jazeera Arabic. He is frequently placed on debate shows where he battles as many as seven other guests and hosts. Scahill and Ahmadian talk about what Iran would be willing to accept as part of a deal with the U.S., how it could ensure that the U.S. and Israel do not renege on an agreement and restart the war, and how Iran will approach the issue of its enriched uranium stockpiles.
“Iranians do not trust the Trump administration at all. But what they’re banking on is the fact that they stood against an aggression and forced them out of this aggression, short of achieving any of their goals,” Ahmadian said. “The Iranians see that they can balance asymmetrically the power of the United States and can push it back.”
Ahmadian and Scahill discuss the internal decision-making process in Iran, debates among the political, religious and military echelons, and the role of Parliament Speaker Mohammed Baghar-Ghalibaf, Tehran’s lead negotiator in the current talks with the U.S. Ahmadian also offers a comprehensive overview of Iranian strategy and its perspective on reestablishing deterrence and regional balance in the aftermath of the U.S.-Israeli wars.
“Iran wanted to push back in a way that forces its foes to think twice and thrice before attacking Iran once more. And I think they did that. The United States will think more than once before attacking Iran,” Ahmadian said. “Name another system whose top echelon are assassinated and is capable of continuing and also waging a retaliatory war effort against two big foes. I don’t see any historical parallel to this—that speaks volumes to the institutional, institutionalized level of the [Iranian] system.”



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Negotiations in Islamabad between Iran and the United States this past weekend ran for 21 hours from Saturday into Sunday and failed to produce a deal. When Vice President JD Vance emerged from the talks, he said that the U.S. had presented Iran with its “final and best offer,” framing the impasse around nuclear specifically—a framing Iran rejected. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, who helped lead the Iranian delegation, said Iran and the U.S. were “inches away” from an “Islamabad MoU” following “intensive talks at highest level in 47 years,” but the talks fell through because of U.S. “maximalism, shifting goalposts and blockade.”
Meanwhile, as Israel continued to bombard Lebanon on Tuesday and Hezbollah conducted retaliatory attacks, Israeli and Lebanese government officials met in Washington, DC, for their highest-level direct talks in decades. In the run-up to the meeting, Lebanon’s presidency said the talks would focus on announcing a ceasefire and setting a start date for bilateral talks. However, Israel has said it would not discuss a ceasefire during the talks and instead would focus on disarming Hezbollah and establishing peaceful relations between Israel and Lebanon. Hezbollah Secretary-General Naim Qassem in a televised address Monday rejected the planned meeting, calling the talks “futile” and urging the Lebanese government to take “a historic and heroic stance” by refusing to attend.
Drop Site’s Jeremy Scahill and Sharif Abdel Kouddous discuss the latest with Palestinian American journalist Rami Khouri , a distinguished public policy fellow at the American University of Beirut and nonresident senior fellow at the Arab Center Washington, DC.
Jeremy and Sharif also discuss the case of American born Kuwaiti journalist Ahmed Shihab-Eldin, who was arrested six weeks ago in Kuwait where he remains in detention and faces prosecution in a special tribunal over social media posts related to the Iran war.



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