Sharp Football Analysis by Warren Sharp

NFL Week 6 takeaways from the numbers. Atlanta had the best run game in the week on a per carry basis and called 12 rushes, the fewest in the week, while Michael Penix got blitzed and sacked at the second worst rates of any quarterback. The Cowboys slipped, literally, and ran the worst early down run game of any first half in the week. 2026 is the second most penalized start to a season since 2000 and delay of game flags are at an all time high. The Steelers went from first and goal with 1:38 left to fourth and goal with 1:23 left and needed overtime to beat Tampa Bay. The Giants collapsed against the Saints, and Jalen Hurts' London numbers fell off a cliff after halftime on 36 hours without sleep, before the news that he is out for the season. Plus a best bet for Monday Night Football with Curtis.
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Players and coaches discussed: Michael Penix, Bijan Robinson, Kevin Stefanski, Tommy Rees, Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb, Mike Tomlin, Cam Skattebo, Najee Harris, Jalen Hurts, Jayden Daniels.
What you'll learn
• Atlanta's first half drives: two three and outs, a turnover on downs, one touchdown, one punt, and a 21 to 7 halftime deficit
• The Falcons ran it 12 times, the fewest in the week, with a 16.7 percent explosive rush rate, the best in the week
• Michael Penix was blitzed on 52.6 percent of dropbacks and sacked on 13.2 percent, both second worst, with a 31.6 percent bust rate, the worst
• Bijan Robinson averaged 12.8 yards on 4 first half carries and the Falcons kept throwing
• The Cowboys' first half early down runs averaged -0.37 EPA, the worst first half mark in the week, and Dallas threw 78 percent of its passes at 10 air yards or less, the most in the week
• 97 delay of game penalties through six weeks, the previous high was 75, and offenses have committed 690 flags, the most through Week 6 since at least 2000
• Offensive holding is up 58 percent since 2022
• The Steelers threw on first and goal and third and goal with 1:38 left and two Tampa Bay timeouts on the board
• Pittsburgh's first half was the worst in the week by EPA per play and EPA per dropback
• The Giants' catastrophe against New Orleans
• Jalen Hurts is out for the season, and what 36 hours without sleep did to his London numbers: 69 to 42 percent completions, +0.38 to -0.32 EPA per attempt, 7.6 to 4.1 yards per attempt
• Monday Night Football: Commanders at 49ers, with Curtis on the matchup he likes
Chapters
00:00 Intro
00:45 Atlanta's failure to launch
08:43 Cowboys issues
12:58 Penalties are out of control
18:16 Subscribe
18:42 Steelers end of game clock management
23:44 Giant catastrophe
27:57 Jalen Hurts, 36 hours with no sleep
32:21 Free newsletter
32:53 Monday Night Football: Commanders at 49ers, with Curtis
44:26 Wrap-up and a look at Week 7
Free NFL stats tools: Pass Rate Over Expected and more, free on the new stats page: https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/stats-nfl/
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Guests: Curtis Hirsch
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NFL Week 6 best bets, player props and picks for Cowboys at Packers, Bears at Falcons, Texans at Jaguars in London, Cardinals at Rams and Steelers at Buccaneers, plus the Week 6 referee report and three big college football games.
Warren Sharp opens with three keys to the Week 6 betting board: the Green Bay defense facing Dallas, the first half angle on short road favorites, and Houston in London. Ryan McCrystal breaks down Alabama at Tennessee, Notre Dame at BYU and Ohio State at Indiana. Rich Hribar brings three props, two from Cardinals at Rams and one from Steelers at Buccaneers. Joe Gibbs runs the referee report for Ravens at Browns and Cowboys at Packers on Sunday Night Football. Warren closes with his best bet of the week, 39-15 lifetime on this show.
Free week of OddsJam with code WARREN, then 40% off your first month: oddsjam.com
What You'll Learn
• Why Green Bay's defensive numbers need context, and the schedule behind them
• The first half angle on short road favorites
• How Houston should attack Jacksonville in London
• What decides Alabama at Tennessee, Notre Dame at BYU and Ohio State at Indiana
• How the Week 6 referee crews call games, and which teams it helps
• Warren's best bet of the week and the matchup behind it
• The free pass rate over expected and stats tools on the Sharp site
Chapters
00:00 Week 6 best bets and player props: the preview
01:07 Cowboys at Packers: Green Bay's backup QB schedule
06:05 Short road favorites: the first half angle
07:26 Texans at Jaguars in London
11:56 College football with Ryan McCrystal
12:19 Alabama at Tennessee
14:42 Notre Dame at BYU
18:22 Ohio State at Indiana
22:50 Rich Hribar prop 1: Cardinals at Rams
25:58 Rich Hribar prop 2: Cardinals at Rams
30:02 Rich Hribar prop 3: Steelers at Buccaneers
32:44 Pass rate over expected and the free stats tools
34:50 The Week 6 referee report with Joe Gibbs
35:25 Ravens at Browns: the referee crew
38:07 Cowboys at Packers on Sunday night: the referee crew
41:51 Warren's best bet of the week: Bears at Falcons
Guests
Rich Hribar, Ryan McCrystal, Joe Gibbs
More Resources
Free Sharp Football newsletter with our written analysis and best bets: sharp.football
Watch the show on YouTube: Warren Sharp
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NFL Week 6 preview and matchups: Cowboys at Packers on Sunday Night Football, Bears at Falcons, Texans vs Jaguars in London and Steelers at Buccaneers. The pressure rates, personnel splits, run game numbers and coverages that decide each game, plus two sneaky matchups: 49ers at Commanders and Saints at Giants.
Jordan Love, Matt LaFleur, Tucker Kraft, Dak Prescott, Bijan Robinson, Montez Sweat, Caleb Williams, Ben Johnson, C.J. Stroud, Woody Marks, Aaron Rodgers, Todd Bowles, Brock Purdy, Cam Skattebo.
WHAT YOU'LL LEARN
• How Green Bay stopped getting Jordan Love hit, and the personnel and play action change behind it
• Why the way Dallas defends heavy sets plays right into the Packers' hands
• Why the Cowboys offense is the biggest test the Green Bay defense has seen all year
• How bad the Bears run defense really is once you look at who it has faced, and what Bijan Robinson does on outside zone
• What happens to Chicago's run defense when Montez Sweat is off the field
• Caleb Williams inside the pocket vs outside it, and why Atlanta wants him to drop back
• The run game mismatch in London: Houston's ground game against a Jacksonville front that has not been tested
• Why the Jaguars are a pass funnel, and what that opens up for C.J. Stroud
• Aaron Rodgers against Todd Bowles: the quick game, the blitz and the coverage he has struggled with
• Brock Purdy against base defense, and why Washington plays so much of it
• The one run concept the Saints shut down, and why the Giants run it so often
CHAPTERS
00:00 Week 6: what you need to know
00:46 MATCHUP 1: Jordan Love vs the Cowboys defense
03:49 How Green Bay fixed the protection
07:27 The Cowboys offense vs Green Bay
08:57 Subscribe
09:19 MATCHUP 2: Bijan Robinson vs the Bears run defense
14:20 Montez Sweat on and off the field
16:03 Caleb Williams and the Bears offense
19:17 MATCHUP 3: Texans run game vs the Jaguars, London
26:39 Rich's Worksheets
27:34 MATCHUP 4: Aaron Rodgers vs Todd Bowles
31:12 Tampa Bay's Cover 3 and Rodgers
33:11 SNEAKY: Brock Purdy vs Washington's base defense
35:27 SNEAKY: Giants run game vs the Saints
38:22 Wrap
Watch the show on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2vGRyoc6V2A
Rich writes a full Worksheet preview for every game, every week: https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/fantasy/the-worksheet/
Hosted by Warren Sharp (@SharpFootball) and Rich Hribar (@LordReebs). New shows every week: Matchups on Thursday, Best Bets on Friday, the recap on Monday.
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NFL Week 5 takeaways from the numbers. The Seahawks handed the 49ers all three touchdowns on turnovers and still finished last in the week in EPA per play, the Commanders led 12 to 3 at the half and let the Giants run the best second half of any offense, the Chargers offense broke in Denver and the Broncos won anyway, the Browns ran one shotgun look into the blitz for four quarters, and LaFleur finally threw over the loaded box. Plus a best bet for Monday Night Football, Rams at Bills, with Curtis.
Get the free newsletter, every article plus free bets and player props: sharp.football
What You'll Learn
• Seattle gave up three touchdowns off turnovers and ranked last in EPA per play, series conversion and plays per drive
• The Seahawks' early down runs produced -0.66 EPA per rush, the worst in the week, with a 13.8 percent drop rate, the highest
• The Giants went from a 20 percent first half success rate, worst in the week, to 61.5 percent in the second half, the best
• Washington's coverage flipped at halftime: man coverage from 22 to 43 percent, two high from 50 to 18 percent, and Jameis Winston went +0.67 EPA per attempt with three touchdowns
• Jayden Daniels was blitzed on 73.3 percent of dropbacks, the highest rate any quarterback faced
• Harbaugh's Chargers used two back sets on 41.3 percent of snaps, the most in the week, and Justin Herbert's sack plus interception rate was 21.4 percent, the highest
• Denver ranked last in third down conversion and pass success rate and won
• Cleveland lined up in shotgun on 96.9 percent of snaps against a 56.1 percent blitz rate and took 8 sacks
• Green Bay saw 7 or more in the box on 89.8 percent of snaps and Jordan Love averaged 11.8 yards per attempt over it
• Chicago turned it over on 41.7 percent of drives with backup quarterbacks, and what the last three weeks say about Caleb Williams
• The Steelers put 8 in the box on 75 percent of Colts runs against a 39 percent league average
• Monday Night Football: Rams at Bills, with Curtis on the matchup he likes
Chapters
00:00 Intro
00:20 Seahawks gave away the game
05:19 Commanders defense let down again
11:13 Herbert and a broken Chargers offense
15:57 The Broncos won with the worst offense of the week
18:43 Browns ran one shotgun look into the blitz
21:43 Subscribe
22:22 LaFleur finally gets it
24:57 The Bears gave it away, and need Caleb Williams back
28:58 Texans step up in London
31:20 Steelers did not respect Daniel Jones
33:24 The free newsletter
34:28 Monday Night Football: Rams at Bills, with Curtis
46:44 Wrap-up
Watch the show on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bahxb0Z9IZ4
More Resources
Free NFL stats tools, Pass Rate Over Expected and more: sharpfootballanalysis.com/stats-nfl
Weekly, monthly and full season packages: sharpfootballanalysis.com/packages
Follow Us
X: @SharpFootball and @SharpFBAnalysis
YouTube: Sharp Football Analysis

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NFL Week 5 best bets, player props and referee picks, plus three of the biggest college football games of the weekend. It starts with three keys that decide how you bet the weekend: Sam Darnold against a 49ers defense that takes away the middle of the field, the Bengals possibly without Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins and why that might help Chase Brown against a Dolphins run defense with a split, and the Bears running outside zone at a Packers defense that cannot stop it. Then Ryan McCrystal on Alabama at Georgia, Oklahoma vs Texas and UCLA at Oregon, Rich Hribar with three props including Monday night, Joe Gibbs on the referees for Lions at Cardinals, Ravens at Falcons and Bills at Rams, and the best bet of the week to close.
$5 for all of our Week 5 NFL picks with code WEEK5: https://sharp.football
Free week of OddsJam with code WARREN.
Watch the show: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DlVpbB-tBa0
00:00 What is on the show this week
01:17 Who wins the middle of the field
05:41 Could losing the receivers help Chase Brown?
09:12 Outside zone against Green Bay
12:58 Ryan McCrystal on three college games
23:50 $5 for Week 5 with code WEEK5
24:45 Rich Hribar's three props
31:55 Joe Gibbs on the Week 5 referees
41:57 OddsJam
42:37 Best bet of the week
50:05 Good luck this weekend

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