Sharp Football Analysis by Warren Sharp

The NFL is quietly going back under center, and it is not one or two teams, it is almost everybody. Warren Sharp charts every 2026 preseason week 1 offense against 2025 on first half early downs: shotgun rate, target depth, personnel groupings, pre-snap motion and where quarterbacks are throwing. 21 teams have a new offensive coordinator, and week 1 showed you what each of them wants to run.

Get the 2026 NFL Preview book. 619 pages, every roster ranked, detailed strength of schedule, rest edges and lines for every game all season. Use code BOOK20 to drop it to $19.99. https://www.sharp.football

Featuring Tua Tagovailoa, Joe Burrow, Aaron Rodgers, Cam Ward, Malik Willis, Sam Darnold, Drew Lock, Deshaun Watson, Tanner McKee, Andy Dalton, Teddy Bridgewater, Jayden Daniels, Kevin Stefanski, Mike McDaniel, Davis Webb, Matt Nagy and Todd Monken.

WHAT YOU'LL LEARN

• Why 21 new offensive coordinators are quietly moving the whole league back under center

• Which offenses changed the most from 2025, with the exact numbers behind every one

• How Cincinnati changed with the same quarterback, head coach and coordinator, including Joe Burrow's shotgun rate falling from 88% to 57%

• Which offenses got more aggressive downfield, Miami, Denver and the Chargers, and which pulled everything short

• What Tua Tagovailoa's first action in Atlanta actually looked like

• Why Las Vegas went the opposite way on pre-snap motion while the rest of the league cut it

• Which preseason numbers are real signal and which to throw out once the starters play

THE NUMBERS

• Atlanta cut its shotgun rate from 78% to 46%, third highest in the league down to what would rank 27th

• Philadelphia went from 75% to 35%

• Washington, the most shotgun-heavy offense in football last season at 85%, dropped to 50%

• Miami more than doubled its air yards per attempt, 6.0 to 12.1, and led the NFL in week 1 at 13.4

• Denver nearly doubled its own, 7.1 to 13.8

• The Chargers went from 35% to 77% on two running back sets

• Cincinnati's air yards per attempt fell from 6.9 to 4.0, a 42% drop

• Las Vegas raised pre-snap motion from 49% to 63% while everyone else cut it

CHAPTERS

0:00 Intro

0:12 What we measured

0:45 21 new offensive coordinators

2:09 Why only first half early downs

2:47 The 7 offenses that changed the most

3:22 The league-wide trend: motion and shotgun are down

5:13 Atlanta Falcons - Tua's debut

6:58 Philadelphia Eagles - the backup QB battle

9:48 Miami Dolphins - the opposite swing

11:19 Detroit Lions - Bridgewater retires

12:13 Denver Broncos - the offense Warren likes most

13:59 Los Angeles Chargers - Mike McDaniel's two-back look

16:40 Seattle Seahawks - Sam Darnold over the middle

18:11 Pittsburgh Steelers - life after Rodgers

20:39 Baltimore Ravens - three straight AFC North teams

21:26 Cincinnati Bengals - what changed with no changes

23:24 Arizona Cardinals - new head coach, new offense

25:16 Cleveland Browns - Todd Monken's problem

26:26 New York Giants - Matt Nagy's two-back look

28:20 Kansas City Chiefs - Eric Bieniemy returns

29:46 Washington Commanders - the biggest shotgun drop

30:28 Las Vegas Raiders - going the other way on motion

31:58 Tennessee Titans - Cam Ward

WATCH THIS EPISODE
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JclvAR0FbDk

MORE RESOURCES

2026 NFL Preview book, code BOOK20: https://www.sharp.football

Fantasy packages: https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/fantasy-packages/

Follow Us

Warren Sharp on X: @SharpFootball

Sharp Football Analysis: https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com

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Best ball fantasy football draft for 2026, this time in full PPR — 20 rounds from the No. 3 pick, playing for a $3,000,000 first prize.

Get the 2026 Fantasy Football Draft Kit + In-Season bundle and take $20 off with promo code BUNDLE20 (or KIT5 for $5 off the Draft Kit alone): https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/fantasy-packages/

Rich Hribar and Raymond Summerlin fire up their first full-PPR best ball draft of the year and take every pick live: Christian McCaffrey at 1.3, Malik Nabers, DeVonta Smith, Josh Jacobs, Mike Evans, Jadarian Price, Jalen Hurts, Harold Fannin Jr., Michael Pittman Jr., Brock Purdy, Rachaad White, Rashid Shaheed, Jonah Coleman, Dontayvion Wicks, Ryan Flournoy, Gunnar Helm, AJ Barner, DeMond Claiborne, Eli Stowers and Seth McGowan.

What You'll Learn:

• How strategy changes moving from half PPR to full PPR — and which positions get the value bump

• The case for Christian McCaffrey at pick 3, and why best ball makes it a free square

• Why the elite RB tier is gone by the time pick 3 comes back around

• How to build stacks without forcing them: the Hurts–Smith and Evans–Purdy pairs both arrived at fair prices

• Reading the QB room: Josh Allen goes early, then a massive gap — when to strike

• The 20-round endgame: the dart-throw RBs, WRs and tight ends worth your last five picks

Chapters:

0:00 Welcome: first full PPR draft of the year

1:02 Chuba Hubbard injury news

2:01 The Draft Kit and the fantasy bundle

3:00 Half PPR vs full PPR: what actually changes

5:00 The pick 3 question

6:26 Pick 1.3: Christian McCaffrey

10:04 Pick 2.10: Malik Nabers

11:21 Pick 3.3: DeVonta Smith

12:59 Jordyn Tyson over Chris Olave

15:26 Pick 4.10: Josh Jacobs

16:41 Pick 5.3: Mike Evans (planting the Purdy stack)

18:10 Josh Allen early, then the QB gap

21:34 Pick 6.10: Jadarian Price

22:20 Pick 7.3: Jalen Hurts, stacked with Smith

23:33 The Jonathan Brooks head-scratcher

24:16 Darren Waller to Carolina: fantasy fallout

27:08 Harold Fannin on the radar (Pick 8.10 at 28:04)

29:06 Pick 9.3: Michael Pittman Jr.

30:13 Mahomes is falling: how stacks drive QB ADP

31:53 Xavier Worthy doubts and the Matthew Golden theory

33:15 Pick 10.10: Brock Purdy (the stack completes)

33:43 Pick 11.3: Rachaad White

35:50 The Mark Andrews Rorschach test

38:17 Pick 12.10: Rashid Shaheed

39:18 Pick 13.3: Jonah Coleman

40:14 Ray Davis, the best handcuff in football

41:44 Not scared of Travis Hunter

43:12 Pick 14.10: Dontayvion Wicks

44:11 Pick 15.3: Ryan Flournoy

48:21 Pick 16.10: Gunnar Helm

49:27 Pick 17.3: AJ Barner

53:39 Pick 18.10: DeMond Claiborne

55:34 Pick 19.3: Eli Stowers

58:43 Pick 20.10: Seth McGowan

59:36 Full team recap from pick 3

1:03:09 What's next: a live draft every Friday

Watch the draft board on screen in the YouTube version: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u5mNuUnxcLY

Promo code KIT5 for $5 off the Draft Kit, BUNDLE20 for $20 off the fantasy bundle.

More Resources:

Rich Hribar's positional draft plans (in the Draft Kit): https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/fantasy-packages/

All 2026 Sharp Football packages: https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/packages/

Rich Hribar: @LordReebs | Raymond Summerlin: @RMSummerlin | Warren Sharp: @SharpFootball

Follow Us

X: https://x.com/SharpFootball

Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/sharpfootball/

TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@sharpfootballanalysis

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Warren Sharp runs through everything that matters heading into preseason week 1: what the Commanders lose with Laremy Tunsil gone, Patrick Mahomes vs Josh Allen for best quarterback of the decade, the 2026 schedule traps hiding behind last year's late quarterback surges in New Orleans and Jacksonville, the new Highmark Stadium, and what a single sack actually costs a drive.

Rich Hribar joins to explain moving Christian McCaffrey to No. 3 overall, and where Mahomes and Allen land for fantasy this season.

Get the 2026 Sharp Football Preview: https://sharp.football

CHAPTERS

0:00 What's on today's show

1:25 Three shows a week, and a favour

3:35 The Commanders lose Laremy Tunsil

7:13 Washington's kicking problem

10:05 Mahomes vs Allen, best QB of the decade

14:36 The 2026 Sharp Football Preview

16:27 Rich Hribar: Christian McCaffrey to No. 3

26:57 Rich Hribar: Mahomes vs Allen for fantasy

34:24 Was it real, or was it the schedule

36:12 New Orleans and the schedule behind the surge

38:37 Jacksonville, the same story

44:51 The new Highmark Stadium

47:51 Sack avoidance and Caleb Williams

52:46 Kyler Murray, and what Minnesota asks of a QB

55:26 Denver's new offense and Bo Nix

59:08 Outro

 

Warren Sharp - https://x.com/SharpFootball

Rich Hribar - https://x.com/LordReebs

Sharp Football Analysis - https://sharp.football

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Raymond Summerlin and Rich Hribar draft a best ball team live from the number two pick, covering 2026 fantasy football ADP, best ball strategy, roster construction and the Stefan Diggs signing.

Get $20 off the fantasy football bundle with promo code BUNDLE20: https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/

Stefan Diggs is signing with the Washington Commanders, and the guys open by working through what it means for Terry McLaurin, Jayden Daniels, Chig Okonkwo and the late-round tight end market, plus why Deebo Samuel's move back into a familiar system is more interesting than the efficiency numbers suggest.

Then it is a live draft from the 2 spot. Bijan Robinson comes off the board first, the back half of round one turns into an RB-RB pile-up, and the team ends up with seven running backs, two Cardinals by accident, and a tight end room the guys openly call their weakest position.

What You'll Learn:

• What Stefan Diggs to Washington does to Terry McLaurin, Jayden Daniels and the late-round tight end crowd

• Why the back half of round one has become RB-RB no matter which site you draft on

• Rashee Rice, touchdown regression, and the red zone numbers behind the call

• David Montgomery and the prototypical dead zone running back profile

• The Colston Loveland bet, and what the team would have looked like if Brock Bowers fell one more spot

• The full roster recap, and Malik Nabers' fantasy playoff schedule

Chapters:

0:00 Cold open

0:18 Weekly live drafts through August

1:27 The Fantasy Draft Kit

2:24 Breaking: Stefan Diggs signs with Washington

2:59 What it means for McLaurin, Daniels and Okonkwo

5:41 Deebo Samuel back in a familiar system

7:21 The draft begins, on the clock at pick 2

10:02 Why the back half of round 1 turned into RB-RB

12:10 Rashee Rice and touchdown regression

14:20 David Montgomery and the dead zone profile

18:01 Marvin Harrison Jr. and the receiver run

21:53 Xavier Worthy, Jordan Addison and the WR3 tier

26:13 Deebo over Dobbs, and hunting a second QB

28:18 C.J. Stroud and the second tight end problem

31:28 Round 15: pounding running backs

36:17 Cyrus Allen, Jerry Jeudy and the fun picks

41:08 The full roster recap

44:29 Nabers' fantasy playoff schedule

45:30 Wrap-up and BUNDLE20

New live draft every Friday through August and into the first week of September. Watch the picks happen on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@SharpFootball?sub_confirmation=1

More Resources: Fantasy Football Draft Kit and the full fantasy bundle: https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/

Follow Us

Sharp Football Analysis: https://x.com/SharpFBAnalysis

Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/sharpfbanalysis/

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Warren Sharp ranks every NFL starting quarterback into tiers for 2026, covering all 32 teams, NFL QB rankings, quarterback tiers, betting futures and fantasy football draft value.

Get the 2026 Football Preview Book, 619 full color pages on all 32 teams. Use code SHARPQB to save $10 on the PDF: https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/warren-sharp-book-nfl-football-preview/

Training camps are open, so Warren Sharp puts every starting quarterback in the NFL on one board and sorts them into five tiers, from "we can win the Super Bowl because of you" down to "we need to replace you."

This is not a career ranking. It is a 2026 ranking: the quarterback, the coaching staff, and the talent around him, judged for this season only. Warren goes team by team from Arizona to Washington with the numbers behind every call.

Some of the placements that will start arguments: Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen land in different tiers, Justin Herbert sits in tier three, Bryce Young is placed below Jacoby Brissett, Sam Darnold does not crack tier two, and Bo Nix does.

What You'll Learn:

• Why "win playoff games because of you" and "win playoff games in spite of you" are two different tiers

• Why Jacoby Brissett is better than the league thinks, above average across the board among 45 qualifying quarterbacks

• The Justin Herbert verdict: elite talent, tier three placement, and what has to change

• Drake Maye vs Jayden Daniels, and how roster building rather than talent separated the same draft class

• The full tier board at the end, including where Kirk Cousins and Shedeur Sanders shake out

Chapters:

0:00 The five QB tiers, explained

0:26 The 2026 Football Preview Book

1:19 How the tiers work

2:33 Jacoby Brissett

3:16 Tua Tagovailoa & Michael Penix Jr.

4:15 Lamar Jackson

6:28 Josh Allen

7:32 Bryce Young

10:09 Caleb Williams

11:36 Joe Burrow

12:35 Shedeur Sanders / Deshaun Watson

13:47 Dak Prescott

14:58 Bo Nix

16:29 Jared Goff

17:39 Jordan Love

18:27 C.J. Stroud

19:57 Daniel Jones

20:47 Trevor Lawrence

21:45 Patrick Mahomes

22:56 NFL Futures package

23:32 Justin Herbert

25:28 Fernando Mendoza

25:53 Matthew Stafford

27:16 Malik Willis

28:13 Aaron Rodgers

28:48 Kyler Murray

29:27 Drake Maye

31:48 Tyler Shough

32:34 Jaxson Dart

33:02 Geno Smith

33:19 Jalen Hurts

34:23 Brock Purdy

35:06 Sam Darnold

36:03 Baker Mayfield

36:28 Cam Ward

36:48 Jayden Daniels

38:20 The final tier board and wrap-up

For more NFL rankings, betting analysis and data-driven football coverage, subscribe to Sharp Football Analysis on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@SharpFootball?sub_confirmation=1

NFL Futures package, 18+ recommendations. Use code FUTURES50 for 50% off: https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/futures-package/

More Resources: Fantasy Football Draft Kit: https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/

2026 NFL Preview Book: https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/

Follow Us

Warren Sharp: https://x.com/SharpFootball

Sharp Football Analysis: https://x.com/SharpFBAnalysis

Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/sharpfbanalysis/

TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@sharpfbanalysis

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