Sharp Football Analysis by Warren Sharp

NFL Week 4 takeaways from the numbers. The most penalties in any NFL week since 2015 and record offensive flags in the red zone, the Texans blew a 10 point lead because they cannot run, the Eagles went three and out five times in the second half, the Rams won while playing left handed, and the Bengals offense fell apart without Ja'Marr Chase. Plus a best bet for tonight's Monday Night Football with Curtis.
WHAT YOU'LL LEARN
17 penalties per game in Week 4, the most in any week since 2015 and the most after September since 2005
Offenses flagged 6.18 times per 100 snaps, the most through four weeks since 2000, with record red zone penalties
How Houston built a 16-6 lead from under center, then went 72% shotgun and ran six times in the second half
Dallas in the second half: 56% success, +0.50 EPA per play, a first down on 41% of snaps, all number one
Jalen Hurts on third down: 8.4 yards to go, 90% of throws short of the sticks, one completion
Rams by personnel: -0.14 EPA per play in 11, +0.87 in 12, +0.98 in 13, and the second half run game that won it
The Bengals with and without Chase: +0.40 to +0.04 EPA per attempt, 89% to 69% completions
Bo Nix: 24 first half attempts at 3.9 yards each, 41% of throws at or behind the line
The new free stats page and the Pass Rate Over Expected tool
Monday Night Football: Falcons at Saints, with Curtis on the matchup he likes
CHAPTERS
00:00 Intro
00:32 The refs: 17 penalties per game and record offensive flags
08:27 Subscribe
09:04 Texans can't run and it cost them
12:32 The Cowboys second half offense
15:00 Strength of schedule: Texans and Jaguars
15:53 Eagles offense still broken
18:14 Rams played left handed and won
20:32 Ja'Marr Chase injury was massive for Cincy
23:57 What is the Broncos offense doing?
28:57 Monday Night Football: Falcons at Saints, with Curtis
31:48 The new free stats page and Pass Rate Over Expected tool
38:23 Wrap-up
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NFL Week 4 best bets, player props and referee picks, plus three of the biggest college football games of the weekend. Warren Sharp opens with three matchups that decide how you bet the weekend, then Ryan McCrystal on the Saturday college slate, Rich Hribar with three favorite props including the first London game of the year, Joe Gibbs on the Week 4 referee crews, and the best bet of the week to close.
50% off any season long or monthly package with code SHOW50: https://sharp.football
Covered in this episode: Brian Flores, Kirk Cousins, Trevor Lawrence, Joe Burrow, Daniel Jones, Brad Allen, Craig Wrolstad, Land Clark.
WHAT YOU'LL LEARN
• Why the number one blitz rate in the NFL on early downs is a problem for a quarterback who has not faced an above average blitz yet
• The play action split that makes one offense look like two different teams, and the defense that is elite without it and bottom five against it
• Why a pass rush that gets home on 59% of third downs only gets there on 25% of early downs, and what that means for a quarterback who is barely pressured
• Three college games where a coordinator change, a missed tackle rate and a quarterback holding the ball decide the number
• How three referee crews are calling penalties this season and which teams it helps
CHAPTERS
00:00 What is on the show this week
01:39 Why this show is more than the bets
02:52 Brian Flores gets the team that fired him
05:36 The play action lever Las Vegas is not pulling
11:04 Trevor versus time
14:20 Ryan McCrystal on three college games
23:14 50% off with code SHOW50
24:20 Rich Hribar's three props
34:01 Joe Gibbs on the Week 4 referees
42:50 OddsJam
43:19 Best bet of the week
52:14 Back on Monday

Watch the full show on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_7s695JYfdg
PROMO CODES
SHOW50 for 50% off any season long or monthly betting package at https://sharp.football
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GUESTS
Ryan McCrystal, college football betting analyst, Sharp Football Analysis
Rich Hribar, Sharp Football Analysis
Joe Gibbs, referee analyst, Sharp Football Analysis
MORE RESOURCES
Sharp Football Analysis: https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com
Betting packages: https://sharp.football
Follow Us
Warren Sharp on X: @SharpFootball
Rich Hribar on X: @LordReebs
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Warren Sharp and Rich Hribar break down the four matchups that decide Week 4, plus two under-the-radar games nobody is talking about.
WHAT YOU'LL LEARN
Why the Eagles pass defense ranking is a mirage, and the three quarterbacks it was built on
The coverage Vic Fangio has quietly taken away from Matthew Stafford in every meeting
Where Sean McVay gets Kyren Williams the box count he never sees anywhere else
The one formation split that explains the entire Joe Burrow vs Jacksonville matchup
What happens to the Jaguars pass defense when the pass rush does not get home
The Buffalo coverage call that broke Drake Maye last season, and whether a new coordinator goes back to it
What Drake Maye actually does well, and the exact moment in a dropback when it falls apart
The change D'Amico Ryans has made in Houston, and why Dallas is built to attack it
What Nico Collins is worth to C.J. Stroud
The play action split that should decide Chiefs at Raiders
Why the Chargers offensive line is walking into the worst possible building
50% off monthly and full season packages with code SHOW50 at sharp.football
CHAPTERS
00:00 Cold open
00:30 Welcome, and the week ahead
00:59 MATCHUP 1: Rams offense vs the Eagles defense
10:27 The schedule Jalen Hurts has actually faced
13:53 Subscribe
14:32 MATCHUP 2: Joe Burrow vs the Jaguars defense
19:40 The pass protections Jacksonville has faced
22:09 50% off monthly and full season packages, code SHOW50
23:37 MATCHUP 3: Drake Maye vs the Bills pass defense
25:06 The Cover 6 blueprint
30:25 The Worksheet
31:00 MATCHUP 4: the Texans defense vs Dak Prescott
35:43 What Nico Collins is worth to C.J. Stroud
37:46 SNEAKY: Raiders play action vs the Chiefs
40:13 SNEAKY: Seahawks pass rush vs Justin Herbert
42:36 Wrap
Rich writes a full Worksheet preview for every game, every week at sharpfootballanalysis.com
New shows every week: Matchups on Thursday, Best Bets on Friday, the recap on Monday.

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NFL Week 3 takeaways from the numbers. Dallas mismanaged the clock at the Baltimore 7, the Chargers got 5 Buffalo turnovers and did not even cover, and halftime adjustments decided several games. Plus a few best bets for Monday Night Football, Eagles at Bears, with Curtis.
What You'll Learn
• Why the Cowboys' timeout with 15 seconds left, the throwaway and the touchback handed Baltimore a chance
• Derrick Henry's short yardage numbers: 53% first down rate on 75 runs, ranked 70th of 73 backs
• How teams plus 4 in turnovers with 3 or fewer punts were 151-3 straight up since 1990, and the Chargers still lost
• The four Chargers drives inside the Bills 30 that produced three field goals, a miss and an interception
• Mike McCarthy's halftime change: shotgun from 73% to 52%, third downs from 7.2 to 4.3 yards to go
• Why Cincinnati saw the lightest boxes of the week and still ran only 16 times
• Jacksonville's run game against the Patriots, and why New England's early down runs against light boxes had a 0% success rate
• Drake Maye holding the ball 3.3 seconds and the lowest third down passer rating of the week
• How Seattle threw for 393 yards, outgained Washington 6.8 to 4.0 yards per play, and lost
• Marcus Mariota pressured on 54% of dropbacks with 0 interceptions and 3 touchdowns
• Bryce Young against man coverage versus zone
• Monday Night Football: Eagles at Bears, with Curtis on the angles he is watching
Chapters
00:00 Intro
00:44 The Cowboys botched the end of the game in Baltimore
03:53 Derrick Henry in short yardage
07:06 How did the Chargers not even cover?
12:25 Subscribe and the Best Bet record
13:17 Steelers offensive tweaks at halftime
13:39 Cincinnati saw light boxes and still rarely ran
15:56 What happened to the Patriots offense?
20:25 The Commanders unlikely win over Seattle
23:37 Bryce Young was fine against man coverage
25:08 Monday Night Football: Eagles at Bears, with Curtis
33:59 Subscribe to the free newsletter
34:39 Wrap-up
Watch on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cTi_Vlrn9kI
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Guests: Curtis Hirsch
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NFL Week 3 best bets, player props and referee picks, plus three of the biggest college football games of the weekend. Warren Sharp is 38-13 (75%) lifetime on podcast best bets, and this is the full Week 3 card: his best bet of the week plus a second bet, three props from Rich Hribar, Ryan McCrystal on three Saturday games and Joe Gibbs on the Week 3 referees.
It starts with four NFL matchups. The Chargers defense, stout against the run and falling apart against the pass, going to Buffalo to face Josh Allen. Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who has every Seattle touchdown this season, against a Washington defense that blitzes. The Cleveland Browns, who have played the two toughest run defenses in the league and now get one of the softest. And Drake Maye going to Jacksonville, into the coverage that keeps finding him.
45% off the season: the computer totals are back, and code SHOW45 takes 45% off any full season betting package. 70% on computer total recommendations historically over the last six seasons, and 739-431 since 2006, a 63% win rate. sharp.football
Games covered: Ole Miss at Florida, USC at Oregon, Texas at Tennessee, Chargers at Bills, Seahawks at Commanders, Browns at Panthers, Patriots at Jaguars, Jets at Lions, Titans at Giants, Chiefs at Dolphins, Texans at Colts, Rams at Broncos on Sunday Night Football and Eagles at Bears on Monday Night Football.
WHAT YOU WILL LEARN
• Why the Chargers are number two in the NFL against early down runs and still in trouble in Buffalo
• The play action and two high mismatch that Buffalo does not have to work to create
• Jaxon Smith-Njigba’s blitz usage and what Washington’s blitz rate does to it
• Why Cleveland’s whole offensive profile has been a strength of schedule story, and what changes this week
• The coverage Drake Maye keeps seeing, and who plays it most in the NFL
• Ryan McCrystal on three Saturday games, including the one data point he trusts this early in the season
• Rich Hribar’s three Week 3 props and the numbers behind each one, including where he ladders
• The referee trends behind Joe Gibbs’ three picks, including a crew the Broncos are 1-6 with at home
• Warren’s Week 3 best bet, plus one more bet on a second game
CHAPTERS
00:00 Warren’s best bets record and today’s show
01:33 Chargers at Bills
05:11 Seahawks at Commanders
08:21 Browns at Panthers
13:26 Patriots at Jaguars
16:06 College football with Ryan McCrystal
16:24 Ole Miss at Florida
18:53 USC at Oregon
20:42 Texas at Tennessee
24:46 45% off the season with code SHOW45
25:57 Rich Hribar prop 1: Jets at Lions
29:35 Prop 2: Titans at Giants
33:04 Prop 3: Chiefs at Dolphins
36:38 The ref report with Joe Gibbs
37:10 Texans at Colts
38:51 Rams at Broncos, Sunday Night Football
41:00 Eagles at Bears, Monday Night Football
42:41 OddsJam, code WARREN
43:11 Warren’s best bet of the week
47:43 One more bet
50:04 Wrap-up
Watch the video version on YouTube: Sharp Football Analysis
PROMO CODES
SHOW45: 45% off any full season betting package at sharp.football
OddsJam code WARREN: free week trial and 40% off your first month, oddsjam.com
GUESTS
Rich Hribar, Sharp Football Analysis, @LordReebs
Ryan McCrystal, Sharp Football Analysis, college football
Joe Gibbs, Sharp Football Analysis, referee analysis
Hosted by Warren Sharp, @SharpFootball
MORE RESOURCES
The Worksheet
The 2026 Football Preview book
All packages
Follow Us
YouTube • X • sharpfootballanalysis.com

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