Sharp Football Analysis by Warren Sharp

NFL Week 8 takeaways from the numbers with Warren Sharp. Minnesota put seven in the box on 88 percent of Detroit's snaps and blitzed Jared Goff on 79 percent of his dropbacks, both the most in the week, and the Lions ran for 218 yards anyway as Jahmyr Gibbs went from 3.4 yards a carry in the first half to 9.7 in the second. Baker Mayfield completed 0 passes and Tampa Bay won. Dallas led Arizona 17-3, ran it 15 times for 1.9 a carry on second half early downs, threw on the drive that should have ended the game and lost in overtime. Denver finally gave the ball to Jonah Coleman and beat Kansas City, Buffalo beat Baltimore 36-10, and the AFC picture changed. Plus Curtis on Monday Night Football, Bears at Seahawks.
The show opens with a tribute to Brendan Donahue, our mock draft expert, who passed away last week at 45. The most accurate mock drafter in the nation for seven straight years and a friend to everyone at Sharp Football. We will miss him.
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Players and coaches discussed: Jahmyr Gibbs, Jared Goff, Dan Campbell, Baker Mayfield, Michael Penix, Dak Prescott, Gardner Minshew, George Pickens, Brian Schottenheimer, Jonah Coleman, J.K. Dobbins, Bo Nix, Sean Payton, Lamar Jackson, Kirk Cousins, Caleb Williams, Sam Darnold.
What You'll Learn
• Minnesota put 7 plus in the box on 88 percent of Detroit's snaps and blitzed Goff on 79 percent of dropbacks, both the most any offense saw this week
• Detroit ran for 218 yards at 6.4 a carry anyway, both second in the week, with the top elusiveness rating of the week, 19.4
• Gibbs by half: 3.4 yards a carry, -0.49 EPA per rush and 18 percent success before the break, 9.7, +0.40 and 75 percent after it, against the same boxes
• The fix was inside zone: two first half inside zone runs went 19 and 12, Detroit doubled the calls after halftime and averaged 14.8 a carry on them
• Baker Mayfield completed 0 passes, Tampa Bay has won two straight on 7 total completions
• Arizona's first seven drives: punt, downs, interception, punt, field goal, fumble, punt, then four touchdowns in the final 17 minutes with Gardner Minshew
• Up 24-17 at the Arizona 16 with 4:13 left, Dallas ran, threw a 1 yard pass, threw incomplete on third and 11 and kicked. Up 27-24 at the 20, same result. Arizona tied it with 10 seconds left
• Dallas second half early downs: 15 runs at 1.9 a carry and -0.31 EPA, 14 dropbacks at 8.3 yards per attempt and +0.26 EPA, and the run calls kept coming
• Dallas motion fell from 55.6 percent of first half snaps to 7.1 percent, and George Pickens was targeted less than backup TE Brevin Spann-Ford
• The Broncos finally went to Jonah Coleman against the Chiefs
• Buffalo 36, Baltimore 10, and what the AFC looks like through Week 8
• Monday Night Football: Bears at Seahawks, with Curtis on the matchup he likes
Chapters
00:00 Intro
00:18 Remembering Brendan Donahue
02:49 Jahmyr Gibbs is special
05:13 Cowboys epic failure
12:26 Two blowouts that taught us nothing
16:01 The AFC picture
19:12 Broncos finally went to Jonah Coleman
21:54 Night night for the Ravens
23:30 Monday Night Football: Bears at Seahawks, with Curtis
32:14 Wrap-up
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NFL Week 8 best bets, player props and picks for Ravens at Bills, Browns at Steelers, Colts at Jaguars, Titans at Bengals, Chiefs at Broncos and Bears at Seahawks on Monday Night Football, plus the Week 8 referee report.
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Warren Sharp opens with strength of schedule. Seven weeks in, who has played the easiest and hardest schedules, and who has the softest road the rest of the way? Then the Steelers backfield, Jaylen Warren vs Rico Dowdle, in Browns at Steelers, and Parker Washington against the Colts' slot defense in Colts at Jaguars. Rich Hribar brings three props from Titans at Bengals, Colts at Jaguars and Bears at Seahawks, with the Jeffery Simmons trade in play. Joe Gibbs runs the referee report for Ravens at Bills and Bears at Seahawks on Monday Night Football. Warren closes with his best bet of the week, 40-16 lifetime on this show.
WHAT YOU'LL LEARN
• Which teams have played the easiest and hardest schedules so far, and who has the easiest road from here
• Why Jaylen Warren should get the lion's share of the Steelers backfield
• How Parker Washington matches up with the Colts' slot defense
• How the Jeffery Simmons trade changes Titans at Bengals and Bears at Seahawks
• How Clay Martin's and Shawn Smith's crews call games, and Seattle's record with Smith
• Warren's best bet of the week and the matchup behind it
CHAPTERS
00:00 Week 8 best bets and player props: the preview
00:53 Strength of schedule: who has had it easy, and who has it easy next
07:56 Browns at Steelers: Jaylen Warren vs Rico Dowdle
12:47 Colts at Jaguars: Parker Washington and the Colts' slot defense
19:06 Rich Hribar prop 1: Titans at Bengals
22:29 Rich Hribar prop 2: Colts at Jaguars
24:21 Rich Hribar prop 3: Bears at Seahawks
27:49 The Week 8 referee report with Joe Gibbs
28:11 Ravens at Bills: the referee crew
31:55 Bears at Seahawks on Monday night: the referee crew
36:56 Warren's best bet of the week: Chiefs at Broncos
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NFL Week 8 preview and matchups: Ravens at Bills, Vikings at Lions, Chiefs at Broncos and Falcons at Buccaneers. Lamar Jackson's return against a Bills defense giving up points, Jared Goff against the Brian Flores blitz, Bo Nix against Steve Spagnuolo and the numbers that decide each one, plus two sneaky matchups: Sam Darnold vs the Bears on Monday night and the Patriots passing game at Miami.
Josh Allen, D.J. Moore, Lamar Jackson, Derrick Henry, Zay Flowers, Jared Goff, Brian Flores, Jahmyr Gibbs, Bo Nix, Sean Payton, Steve Spagnuolo, Patrick Mahomes, Kenneth Walker, Bijan Robinson, Michael Penix, Baker Mayfield, Todd Bowles, Sam Darnold.
WHAT YOU'LL LEARN
• Why the Ravens defense has not faced a real passing offense yet, and what happened the two times it did
• How Josh Allen's downfield passing changes with D.J. Moore on the field
• The Bills defense is allowing the most points per drive in the NFL, and what Lamar Jackson's return does to that
• Derrick Henry's numbers with Lamar on the field and what Baltimore's offense looked like in his last half of football
• Zay Flowers in the slot against a Buffalo defense that struggles with slot receivers
• Brian Flores is blitzing at a rate the league has never seen, and how Jared Goff has handled the blitz this year versus last year's meetings
• Why Jahmyr Gibbs keeps getting stuck in pass protection against Minnesota
• Denver has played the hardest schedule of defenses in the NFL, and why the offense is still last in the league in four categories
• How Bo Nix handled the Arizona blitz and the downfield throws he missed
• Patrick Mahomes' Week 1 air yards against Denver and the Chiefs' passing game since
• Kenneth Walker's 173 yards at Denver in Week 1 and whether the Broncos run defense has changed
• Can Bijan Robinson run on Tampa Bay, and what Michael Penix does with a quick-release passing game
• Baker Mayfield playing through a thumb injury against the Falcons pass defense
• Sam Darnold against the Bears pass defense on Monday night, and the trades both teams just made
• The Patriots passing game against a Miami defense that cannot cover tight ends
CHAPTERS
00:00 Week 8: what you need to know
00:56 MATCHUP 1: Josh Allen's Bills offense vs the Ravens defense
08:09 Lamar Jackson's return: the Ravens offense vs the Bills defense
14:35 Subscribe
15:04 MATCHUP 2: Jared Goff vs the Brian Flores blitz
22:09 Jahmyr Gibbs vs the Vikings
27:29 Splash Sports: the $100K NFL Bloody Survivor
28:25 MATCHUP 3: Sean Payton's Broncos offense vs Steve Spagnuolo
33:43 Kenneth Walker vs the Broncos run defense
39:14 MATCHUP 4: Can Bijan run? The Falcons offense vs the Bucs defense
46:35 SNEAKY: Sam Darnold vs the Bears pass defense
50:19 SNEAKY: The Patriots passing game vs the Dolphins
52:56 Wrap
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NFL Week 7 takeaways from the numbers with Warren Sharp. Seattle took Kenneth Walker out of the game after he led the NFL in yards per carry, rushing yards, explosive rate and EPA through six weeks, and Kansas City became the only offense in the week that never reached the red zone. The Dolphins beat Aaron Glenn and the Jets, Baltimore keeps owning first halves and losing second halves, Cincinnati went from 0 first half points to 35 after the break, Sean Payton and Bo Nix beat Arizona with a quarterback as the leading rusher, the 49ers punted once in nine drives and still lost in Atlanta, Tampa Bay has faced the hardest schedule of pass defenses in the league, and Houston punted six times against the Giants. Plus Curtis on Monday Night Football, Cowboys at Eagles.
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Players and coaches discussed: Kenneth Walker, Patrick Mahomes, Mike Macdonald, Sam Darnold, Aaron Glenn, Malik Willis, Lamar Jackson, Derrick Henry, Declan Doyle, Joe Burrow, Bo Nix, Sean Payton, Michael Penix, Bijan Robinson, Raheem Morris, Baker Mayfield, Bryce Young, J.J. McCarthy, DeMeco Ryans, Dak Prescott, Tanner McKee, Saquon Barkley.
What You'll Learn
• Kenneth Walker through six weeks: 6.3 yards per carry, 665 rushing yards, a 14.2 percent explosive rate and +0.16 EPA per rush, all first in the NFL
• What Seattle did differently: a light box on 57 percent of his runs instead of 20, an 8 plus man box on 21 percent instead of 48
• Kansas City reached the red zone on 0 percent of its drives, scored 0.38 points per drive and gained a first down on 22 percent of its plays, all the lowest in the week
• Patrick Mahomes saw two high on 61.8 percent of dropbacks, held the ball 3 plus seconds on 44.1 percent and posted the lowest accurate throw rate in the week, 78.8 percent
• Seattle won on third down, 68.8 percent to 27.3, and is the first team since 1984 to hold its first seven opponents under 180 passing yards
• Miami ran 39 first half plays to the Jets' 18, converted 94.7 percent of its series and averaged +0.81 EPA per dropback, the best first half mark in the week
• Cincinnati's halves: 0 points and 3.1 yards per play before halftime, 35 points, 0.66 EPA per play and a 94.7 percent series conversion rate after it
• Baltimore first halves this season: 118 points and a +65 margin, both first. Second halves: 44 points and a -70 margin, second worst and last
• Bo Nix against the blitz in the first half: 3 of 8 for 9 yards, 0 percent success, -0.73 EPA per attempt
• Denver threw 20 plus air yards on 33.3 percent of attempts, the most in the week, and Nix hit 4 of 13 throws past 5 yards downfield
• The 49ers punted once on nine drives and still lost: two fumbles, a turnover on downs and two interceptions, four of them inside the Atlanta 30
• Atlanta scored on 60 percent of its drives, the best in the week
• Tampa Bay has faced the most difficult schedule of pass defenses in the NFL, five top 10 pass defenses in its last six games, and Atlanta is not one of them
• The Giants ran 22 personnel on 22 snaps, the most in the week, and J.J. McCarthy averaged 14.8 yards per attempt in the first half, the best mark in the week
• Houston's offense: 6 punts, the most in the week, 23.6 yards per drive and a first down on 22.2 percent of plays
• Monday Night Football: Cowboys at Eagles, with Curtis on the matchup he likes
Chapters
00:00 Intro
00:15 Kenneth Walker grounded
05:30 Chiefs were dominated
09:12 Dolphins beat Aaron Glenn
12:35 Subscribe
13:10 Ravens, first half vs second half
21:09 Sean Payton and Bo Nix
25:41 49ers at Falcons
30:27 Buccaneers and Baker Mayfield's return
34:14 DeMeco Ryans' defense
38:06 Monday Night Football: Cowboys at Eagles, with Curtis
52:18 Wrap-up
Watch the show on YouTube: Sharp Football Analysis on YouTube
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Guests: Curtis on Monday Night Football.
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NFL Week 7 best bets, player props and picks for Chiefs at Seahawks on Sunday Night Football, Packers at Lions, Rams vs Raiders, Buccaneers at Panthers, Colts vs Vikings, Giants at Texans and 49ers at Falcons, plus the Week 7 referee report and three big college football games.
Warren Sharp opens with the Rams: 2-4 after the loss to Arizona, and without Davante Adams for months. What has to change against Las Vegas? Then Brian Flores, who pressures and blitzes like no one else, as Minnesota meets Daniel Jones and the Colts, and how Carolina should handle Todd Bowles' blitz in a big NFC South game. Ryan McCrystal breaks down Ole Miss at Texas, Houston at Utah and LSU at Auburn. Rich Hribar brings three props from Buccaneers at Panthers, Giants at Texans and 49ers at Falcons, and Warren shares his advice on betting through a slump. Joe Gibbs runs the referee report for Packers at Lions and Chiefs at Seahawks on Sunday Night Football. Warren closes with his best bet of the week, 39-16 lifetime on this show.
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What You'll Learn
• What the Rams have to change without Davante Adams
• Why Brian Flores blitzes like no one else, and what it means for the Colts
• How Carolina should attack Todd Bowles' blitz
• What decides Ole Miss at Texas, Houston at Utah and LSU at Auburn
• How the Week 7 referee crews call games, including John Hussey's record with home teams
• How to bet through a slump
• Warren's best bet of the week and the matchup behind it
Chapters
00:00 Week 7 best bets and player props: the preview
01:13 Rams vs Raiders: the Rams without Davante Adams
08:19 Colts vs Vikings: Brian Flores and the blitz
10:43 Buccaneers at Panthers: beating Todd Bowles' blitz
13:18 College football with Ryan McCrystal
13:39 Ole Miss at Texas
18:15 Houston at Utah
20:20 LSU at Auburn
24:19 Rich Hribar prop 1: Buccaneers at Panthers
28:27 Rich Hribar prop 2: Giants at Texans
31:46 Rich Hribar prop 3: 49ers at Falcons
36:29 The Week 7 referee report with Joe Gibbs
37:05 Packers at Lions: the referee crew
39:53 Chiefs at Seahawks on Sunday night: the referee crew
45:19 Warren's best bet of the week: Rams vs Raiders
Guests
Rich Hribar, Ryan McCrystal, Joe Gibbs
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