The Carbon Curve

Episode 65 is with Luke Connell (CarbonRun), Trish Nixon (Amplify), and Brandon Vlaar (Mangrove Systems) recorded live during Toronto Climate Week
For this special Toronto Climate Week wrap-up, Na’im sits down in person with three of the sharpest minds in the Toronto climate scene, each bringing a different vantage point on where carbon removal really stands. Trish Nixon (Venture Partner at Amplify Capital) brings the finance and capital side, Brandon Vlaar (CEO of Mangrove Systems) brings measurement and verification, and Luke Connell (CEO of CarbonRun) brings the supplier and operator side. A year after many feared the bottom would fall out of climate, the conversation is candid about the headwinds: a venture market that cannot scale this sector alone, a punishing “missing middle” in project finance, and an affordability lens now applied to every climate policy. At the same time, the panel makes the case that the structural foundations for a durable market are further along than the vibes suggest. It is an honest look at the valley of death ahead, and the real opportunity waiting for the companies that make it to the other side.
In this episode, we discuss:
* Whether the sector feels better or worse than a year ago, and why we are “over the hype cycle”
* The “missing middle” in project finance, and why venture was the wrong tool to scale an infrastructure-heavy market
* Canada as a safe haven for carbon removal: real advantage or comforting story?
* CarbonRun’s first verified river alkalinity enhancement credits, and how audits expose optimistic models fast
* The role of MRV and VVBs in reducing friction from operational activity to revenue
* Consolidation ahead for a field of roughly 1,100 permanent-CDR companies, and why that can be healthy
* The affordability trap, the move from “desktop to deployment,” and what success looks like five years out
Guests
Trish Nixon, Venture Partner, Amplify Capital. Trish is a climate-finance leader with roots in project finance and impact investing. She co-led CoPower, a clean-energy fintech, through its acquisition by Vancity, then served as Managing Director of Climate Finance at VCIB. At Amplify Capital she invests in early-stage climate and health ventures, and she also advises companies in the space, including CarbonRun.
Brandon Vlaar, CEO & Co-Founder, Mangrove Systems. Brandon is a repeat founder who came up through Canadian fintech, co-founding Lending Loop, the country’s first peer-to-peer lending platform, before turning to climate. He launched Mangrove Systems in 2022, and today it builds digital MRV (dMRV) software trusted by some of the largest carbon projects in the world, spanning carbon removal, carbon capture, low-carbon fuels, and super-pollutants.
Luke Connell, CEO & Co-Founder, CarbonRun. Luke is an entrepreneur whose career has bridged social impact and commercialization before he found his way to carbon dioxide removal in 2020. He now leads CarbonRun, the Nova Scotia company pioneering river alkalinity enhancement: adding finely ground limestone to acidified rivers to restore them while permanently converting atmospheric CO₂ into stable ocean bicarbonate. Under Luke, CarbonRun recently issued its first verified credits.
Referenced in this episode
* CarbonRun
* Mangrove Systems
* Amplify Capital
* Carbon Removal Canada
* Toronto Climate Week
This episode was made possible thanks to the generous support of the Consecon Foundation.
This episode was created and published by Na’im Merchant. Episode production and content support provided by Tank Chen.
Na’im Merchant is the co-founder and Executive Director of Carbon Removal Canada, a policy initiative focused on scaling carbon removal in Canada. He is on the advisory board of the Carbon Removal Standards Initiative and Terraset, and a former policy fellow with Elemental Impact. He previously ran carbon removal consulting practice Carbon Curve, and publishes The Carbon Curve newsletter and podcast. Every two weeks, Na’im will release a short interview with individuals advancing the policies, technologies, and collective action needed to scale up carbon removal around the world.
Tank Chen is the Head of Content and Community at CDR.fyi, a public benefit corporation dedicated to accelerating carbon removal through transparency. He is also the co-founder of CDRjobs, a career platform for the carbon removal industry. Based in Taiwan, Tank is a carbon removal advocate focused on educating policymakers, corporate leaders, and the public on the importance of carbon removal, using data-driven insights to support communication and policy advocacy.
If you enjoyed this episode, please subscribe to this podcast on your favorite podcast app or subscribe via The Carbon Curve newsletter here. If you’d like to get in touch with Na’im, you can reach out via LinkedIn.


This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit carboncurve.substack.com

Episode 64 is with Dr. Julio Friedmann, Chief Scientist at Carbon Direct
In this episode, Na’im speaks with Dr. Julio Friedmann about Carbon Direct’s recent publication “ 5 Pillars of Successful Project Deployment and Delivery” on what the carbon dioxide removal industry needs to de-risk projects in order to attract new buyers and to stand up infrastructure-scale carbon removal projects.In this episode, Na’im and Julio discuss:
* How CDR 1.0 built markets
* What buyers today really want
* Overview of Five Pillars Carbon Direct outlined
* Why project assurance matter
* The bottleneck project management talents
* Industry-led standard setting
* Basics of bankable offtake agreements
Relevant Links:
* CDR 2.0: Five Pillars of Successful Project Deployment and Delivery - Report
* 2026 State of the Voluntary Carbon Market - Report
* 2026 State of the Voluntary Carbon Market - Webinar
* Carbon Direct - Website
* Advance Carbon Removal Coalition - Website
* Quebec Surficial Mineralization Hub
About Dr. Julio Friedmann:  Julio is Chief scientist at Carbon Direct. He works directly with clients, the science team, and the leadership of Carbon Direct to solve major technical challenges around carbon management and CO2 removal, making clean power in products and reducing greenhouse gas emissions.
Dr. Friedmann is one of the most widely known and authoritative experts in the US on carbon dioxide removal, CO2 conversion, and hydrogen industrial decarbonization and carbon capture and sequestration. He recently served as principal deputy assistant secretary for the Office of Fossil Energy at the Department of Energy, where he was responsible for doe’s r and d program in advanced fossil energy systems, carbon capture and storage, CO2 utilization, and CO2 removal.
More recently, he was a senior research scholar at the Center on Global Energy Policy at Columbia. He has held positions at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, including Chief Energy Technologist.
About Carbon Direct: Carbon Direct is a trusted energy and climate solutions company that combines world-class scientific expertise, technical rigor, and market insights to help clients achieve their business goals. Carbon Direct 70 plus scientists work closely with their finance policy and market experts to design diligence and deliver decarbonization solutions across industries. From JP Morgan Chase to Microsoft. Carbon Direct helps leading companies with carbon dioxide removal, carbon measurement from clean power opportunities and low carbon energy solutions.
This episode was made possible thanks to the generous support of the Consecon Foundation.
This episode was created and published by Na’im Merchant. Episode production and content support provided by Tank Chen.
Na’im Merchant is the co-founder and Executive Director of Carbon Removal Canada, a policy initiative focused on scaling carbon removal in Canada. He is on the advisory board of the Carbon Removal Standards Initiative and Terraset, and a former policy fellow with Elemental Impact. He previously ran carbon removal consulting practice Carbon Curve, and publishes The Carbon Curve newsletter and podcast. Every two weeks, Na’im will release a short interview with individuals advancing the policies, technologies, and collective action needed to scale up carbon removal around the world.
Tank Chen is the Head of Content and Community at CDR.fyi, a public benefit corporation dedicated to accelerating carbon removal through transparency. He is also the co-founder of CDRjobs, a career platform for the carbon removal industry. Based in Taiwan, Tank is a carbon removal advocate focused on educating policymakers, corporate leaders, and the public on the importance of carbon removal, using data-driven insights to support communication and policy advocacy.
If you enjoyed this episode, please subscribe to this podcast on your favorite podcast app or subscribe via The Carbon Curve newsletter here. If you’d like to get in touch with Na’im, you can reach out via LinkedIn.


This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit carboncurve.substack.com

Episode 63 is with Jack Andreasen Cavanaugh
Last week, Heatmap reported that Microsoft — the single largest buyer of durable carbon dioxide removal in the world, accounting for 80–90% of all purchases ever made — is pausing new CDR purchases. Jack Andreasen Cavanaugh, Director of the Carbon Management Program at Columbia’s Center on Global Energy Policy, published a piece over the weekend arguing this isn’t really a Microsoft story. The real story is that Microsoft was ever alone in the first place.
In this conversation, Jack makes the case that voluntary corporate buying was never going to get us to gigatonnes, and that policy has to do the heavy lifting — just like it did for solar and wind. We get into what the next 12 months actually look like for CDR companies, why enhanced oil recovery deserves a fresh look, the limits of 45Q, and the one policy Jack would write into law tomorrow if he could.
In this episode:
* Why Microsoft’s dominance was a structural vulnerability, not market health — and the “seven buyers in a trench coat” problem
* Governments have committed $45M to CDR purchases but spent essentially $0
* The case for enhanced oil recovery and why “greenwashing” arguments fall apart under scrutiny
* Where 45Q falls short and why most CDR pathways still get no support
* Why Big Tech lobbying for CDR policy may be worth more than their purchases
* Jack’s dream policy: a low-carbon-intensity product standard embedded in global trade
About the guest:
Jack Andreasen Cavanaugh is Director of the Carbon Management Program at the Center on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University’s School of International and Public Affairs. He previously led Carbon Management Policy at Breakthrough Energy.
Referenced in this episode:
* Jack’s piece: “The Private Sector Built the Market — Time for Us to Scale It”
* Heatmap’s reporting on Microsoft’s CDR pause
This episode was made possible thanks to the generous support of the Consecon Foundation.
This episode was created and published by Na’im Merchant. Episode production and content support provided by Tank Chen.
Na’im Merchant is the co-founder and Executive Director of Carbon Removal Canada, a policy initiative focused on scaling carbon removal in Canada. He is on the advisory board of the Carbon Removal Standards Initiative and Terraset, and a former policy fellow with Elemental Impact. He previously ran carbon removal consulting practice Carbon Curve, and publishes The Carbon Curve newsletter and podcast. Every two weeks, Na’im will release a short interview with individuals advancing the policies, technologies, and collective action needed to scale up carbon removal around the world.
Tank Chen is the Head of Content and Community at CDR.fyi, a public benefit corporation dedicated to accelerating carbon removal through transparency. He is also the co-founder of CDRjobs, a career platform for the carbon removal industry. Based in Taiwan, Tank is a carbon removal advocate focused on educating policymakers, corporate leaders, and the public on the importance of carbon removal, using data-driven insights to support communication and policy advocacy.
If you enjoyed this episode, please subscribe to this podcast on your favorite podcast app or subscribe via The Carbon Curve newsletter here. If you’d like to get in touch with Na’im, you can reach out via LinkedIn.


This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit carboncurve.substack.com

Episode 62 is with Robert Höglund (Head of Climate Strategy and CDR, Milky Wire; Co-Founder, CDR FYI; CEO, Marginal Carbon).
In this episode, host Na’im Merchant catches up with Robert Höglund to discuss his latest thinking on the carbon removal sector’s trajectory. Robert makes the case that CDR needs a narrative shift away from speed and scale, toward prove and learn. They explore why aviation and shipping are largely ignoring carbon removal in their decarbonization plans, why voluntary demand may outpace compliance demand for the next decade or more, and why the sector should stop treating CDR as a last resort and start positioning it as a legitimate mitigation solution alongside everything else.
Key Topics:
* From “Speed and Scale” to “Prove and Learn”: Focus on driving down costs, proving out methods, and nailing MRV rather than racing toward gigatons by mid-century.
* Voluntary vs. Compliance Demand: Voluntary buyers, led by high-profit, low-emission sectors like tech, could remain the larger demand source for 10 to 15 years.
* Aviation and Shipping’s CDR Blind Spot: Legislation like Refuel EU and Fuel EU Maritime effectively shuts out carbon removal in favor of fuel switching, reflecting an advocacy gap in international forums.
* CDR Is Not a Last Resort: Carbon removal is rate-limited, not stock-limited, and should compete on cost and sustainability alongside other mitigation solutions.
* The Ability to Pay: There are plenty of high-profit, low-emission companies that could be buying CDR today but aren’t yet.
About Robert Höglund:
Robert is the Head of Climate Strategy and CDR at Milky Wire, Co-Founder of CDR FYI, and CEO of Marginal Carbon. He writes reports for Carbon Gap and serves on several advisory groups including the EU Commission’s Expert Group on Carbon Removal and the Science Based Targets Initiative’s Expert Working Group.
Relevant Links:
* The carbon removal sector needs a new story — Robert Hoglund
* Marginal Carbon Substack
* Robert Höglund’s LinkedIn Profile
* The Billion Tonne Blueprint — Carbon Removal Canada
* Removals into Revenue — Carbon Removal Canada
* Advance Carbon Removal Coalition
This episode was made possible thanks to the generous support of the Consecon Foundation.
This episode was created and published by Na’im Merchant. Episode production and content support provided by Tank Chen.
Na’im Merchant is the co-founder and Executive Director of Carbon Removal Canada, a policy initiative focused on scaling carbon removal in Canada. He is on the advisory board of the Carbon Removal Standards Initiative and Terraset, and a former policy fellow with Elemental Impact. He previously ran carbon removal consulting practice Carbon Curve, and publishes The Carbon Curve newsletter and podcast. Every two weeks, Na’im will release a short interview with individuals advancing the policies, technologies, and collective action needed to scale up carbon removal around the world.
Tank Chen is the Head of Content and Community at CDR.fyi, a public benefit corporation dedicated to accelerating carbon removal through transparency. He is also the co-founder of CDRjobs, a career platform for the carbon removal industry. Based in Taiwan, Tank is a carbon removal advocate focused on educating policymakers, corporate leaders, and the public on the importance of carbon removal, using data-driven insights to support communication and policy advocacy.
If you enjoyed this episode, please subscribe to this podcast on your favorite podcast app or subscribe via The Carbon Curve newsletter here. If you’d like to get in touch with Na’im, you can reach out via LinkedIn.


This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit carboncurve.substack.com

Episode 61 is with Giana Amador (Executive Director, Carbon Removal Alliance), Erin Burns (Executive Director, Carbon180), and Peter Minor (CEO, Absolute Climate).
In this inaugural Removers Roundtable episode, host Na’im Merchant sits down with three leaders in the carbon removal space: Giana Amador (Executive Director, Carbon Removal Alliance), Erin Burns (Executive Director, Carbon180), and Peter Minor (CEO, Absolute Climate). They discuss the current state of US carbon removal policy, industry consolidation, and the sector’s evolution from hype to maturity—emphasizing that carbon removal is playing the long game, building toward gigatonnes over decades, not years.
Key Topics:
* Policy Wins in Appropriations: Congress allocated $45 million for the CDR purchase pilot prize and over $70 million for RD&D at DOE, signaling bipartisan support. The DAC hubs program saw $1 billion redirected, leaving $800 million remaining.
* Shift from Hype to “Prove and Learn”: The industry is transitioning to real-world deployment, with opportunities to engage communities and understand practical challenges like permitting and project finance.
* Industry Consolidation: Mergers bring advantages of scale including better supplier terms and buyer confidence.
* Talent and Long-term Vision: While some talent may leave as the market normalizes, the focus should be on creating durable political coalitions and maintaining strategy rather than reacting to short-term politics.
Guest Bios:
* Erin Burns is the Executive Director of Carbon180, a US nonprofit focused on scaling carbon removal through equitable, science-based policy and market development.
* Peter Minor is the CEO and Co-Founder of Absolute Climate and serves as a Science Advisor to the Carbon Removal Alliance.
* Giana Amador is the Executive Director of the Carbon Removal Alliance, a nonprofit coalition focused on advancing carbon removal policy and market development.
Relevant Links:
* Noah Deich’s Substack
* The carbon removal sector needs a new story - Robert Hoglund
* Durable carbon removal delivers 1 million tons - Carbon Herald
This episode was made possible thanks to the generous support of the Consecon Foundation.
This episode was created and published by Na’im Merchant. Episode production and content support provided by Tank Chen.
Na’im Merchant is the co-founder and Executive Director of Carbon Removal Canada, a policy initiative focused on scaling carbon removal in Canada. He is on the advisory board of the Carbon Removal Standards Initiative and Terraset, and a former policy fellow with Elemental Impact. He previously ran carbon removal consulting practice Carbon Curve, and publishes The Carbon Curve newsletter and podcast. Every two weeks, Na’im will release a short interview with individuals advancing the policies, technologies, and collective action needed to scale up carbon removal around the world.
Tank Chen is the Head of Content and Community at CDR.fyi, a public benefit corporation dedicated to accelerating carbon removal through transparency. He is also the co-founder of CDRjobs, a career platform for the carbon removal industry. Based in Taiwan, Tank is a carbon removal advocate focused on educating policymakers, corporate leaders, and the public on the importance of carbon removal, using data-driven insights to support communication and policy advocacy.
If you enjoyed this episode, please subscribe to this podcast on your favorite podcast app or subscribe via The Carbon Curve newsletter here. If you’d like to get in touch with Na’im, you can reach out via LinkedIn.


This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit carboncurve.substack.com