Clearer Thinking is a podcast about ideas that truly matter. If you enjoy learning about powerful, practical concepts and frameworks, wish you had more deep, in...
Evidence-Based Medicine and its discontents (with Gordon Guyatt)
Read the full transcript here. How were decisions made about which treatments to trust before the advent of "evidence-based" medicine? How strong are biological arguments for or against various treatments? When did the Evidence-Based Medicine (EBM) movement begin? How did the EBM movement overcome initial resistance among medical professionals? What resources do doctors have at their disposals to find up-to-date information about treatment efficacies? Why is the pharmaceutical industry allowed such influence over information about treatments? What is the GRADE approach to EBM? What does EBM have to say about the role of patient preferences and values? How bad is being overweight? What are "surrogate" or "substitute" outcomes? How rigorous is the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (DSM)? How often do treatments suffer from a lack of high-quality evidence of an effect versus plenty of high-quality evidence of a lack of an effect? What's the state of evidence about the placebo effect? What are the most exciting current initiatives in EBM?Gordon Guyatt is a McMaster University Distinguished Professor. His work has focused on Evidence-Based Medicine and promoting high-quality healthcare without financial barriers for all Canadians. His Order of Canada citation acknowledges both contributions. He has been honored as a Canadian Institute of Health Research Researcher of the Year and a member of the Canadian Medical Hall of Fame. Learn more about Gordon and his work at clarityresearch.ca.Further reading"This is why you shouldn’t believe that exciting new medical study" by Julia Belluz @ Vox StaffSpencer Greenberg — Host / DirectorJosh Castle — ProducerRyan Kessler — Audio EngineerUri Bram — FactotumWeAmplify — TranscriptionistsMusicBroke for FreeJosh WoodwardLee RosevereQuiet Music for Tiny Robotswowamusiczapsplat.comAffiliatesClearer ThinkingGuidedTrackMind EasePositlyUpLift[Read more]
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1:15:12
AI, US-China relations, and lessons from the OpenAI board (with Helen Toner)
Read the full transcript here. Is it useful to vote against a majority when you might lose political or social capital for doing so? What are the various perspectives on the US / China AI race? How close is the competition? How has AI been used in Ukraine? Should we work towards a global ban of autonomous weapons? And if so, how should we define "autonomous"? Is there any potential for the US and China to cooperate on AI? To what extent do government officials — especially senior policymakers — worry about AI? Which particular worries are on their minds? To what extent is the average person on the street worried about AI? What's going on with the semiconductor industry in Taiwan? How hard is it to get an AI model to "reason"? How could animal training be improved? Do most horses fear humans? How do we project ourselves onto the space around us?Helen Toner is the Director of Strategy and Foundational Research Grants at Georgetown's Center for Security and Emerging Technology (CSET). She previously worked as a Senior Research Analyst at Open Philanthropy, where she advised policymakers and grantmakers on AI policy and strategy. Between working at Open Philanthropy and joining CSET, Helen lived in Beijing, studying the Chinese AI ecosystem as a Research Affiliate of Oxford University's Center for the Governance of AI. Helen holds an MA in Security Studies from Georgetown, as well as a BSc in Chemical Engineering and a Diploma in Languages from the University of Melbourne. Follow her on Twitter at @hlntnr. StaffSpencer Greenberg — Host / DirectorJosh Castle — ProducerRyan Kessler — Audio EngineerUri Bram — FactotumWeAmplify — TranscriptionistsMusicBroke for FreeJosh WoodwardLee RosevereQuiet Music for Tiny Robotswowamusiczapsplat.comAffiliatesClearer ThinkingGuidedTrackMind EasePositlyUpLift[Read more]
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1:21:57
Getting a handle on your goals and big life changes (with Tee Barnett)
Read the full transcript here. What are the best things to do to help someone achieve their goals? What kind of person should see a personal coach? And when should they do so? What makes for a good personal coach? How do you know which coaches are legit given that they aren't certified like counselors? Can everyone benefit from meeting with a coach? How can you harness modernity to live the kind of life you want? In what ways do people treat themselves as resources? What are the most common causes of burnout? How high should our internal standards be? What should people be thinking about as they make large life changes? Should people always try to improve themselves? What are some challenges that are specific to leaders? How can people make more time for and focus better on less tangible challenges like assessing their vision and goals for the future? How can you resurrect seemingly dead parts of your inner life?Tee Barnett is a Personal Strategist who has coached a variety of high-functioning leaders across several industries. He has also run coaching training programs and recently helped launch Supercycle, a personal and professional development community platform that brings an interdisciplinary approach to personal growth, including philosophy, phenomenology, natural sciences, sociology, etc. Learn more about him at his personal website, teebarnett.com, or Supercycle's website, supercycle.org; follow him on Twitter / X at @teebarnettsays; or email him at [email protected]. StaffSpencer Greenberg — Host / DirectorJosh Castle — ProducerRyan Kessler — Audio EngineerUri Bram — FactotumWeAmplify — TranscriptionistsMusicBroke for FreeJosh WoodwardLee RosevereQuiet Music for Tiny Robotswowamusiczapsplat.comAffiliatesClearer ThinkingGuidedTrackMind EasePositlyUpLift[Read more]
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1:23:29
Avoiding major investment mistakes (with Jim O'Shaughnessy)
Read the full transcript here. What are the biggest mistakes people make when investing? What's the best thing to do with extra savings? How can we overcome emotional biases that might negatively impact our investment strategies? What is "hyperbolic discounting"? How can you know when to pull your money out of an investment? How can journaling help with investing? Is it irrational to invest only in companies based in your country? What's the optimal mix of stocks and bonds? Are short-term bonds better than long-term bonds, or vice versa? How can you tell genuine growth from too much hype? How predictable is the stock market? If you find an investment strategy that works, should you tell others about it? What's the best way to cope with bubbles? Who should apply for ventures?Jim O'Shaughnessy was in quantitative asset management for most of his career until selling his company, O'Shaughnessy Asset Management, to Franklin Templeton in 2021. In 2023, he formed O'Shaughnessy Ventures, which is engaged in book publishing, filmmaking, and partnering with podcasters, Substack writers, and other new media ventures. Their venture capital arm invests in companies that they think have winning business strategies in regards to what Jim calls "The Great Reshuffle". O'Shaughnessy Ventures also gives equity-free fellowships and grants ranging from $10,000 to $100,000. Learn more about Jim at O'Shaughnessy Ventures's website, osv.llc. StaffSpencer Greenberg — Host / DirectorJosh Castle — ProducerRyan Kessler — Audio EngineerUri Bram — FactotumWeAmplify — TranscriptionistsMusicBroke for FreeJosh WoodwardLee RosevereQuiet Music for Tiny Robotswowamusiczapsplat.comAffiliatesClearer ThinkingGuidedTrackMind EasePositlyUpLift[Read more]
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1:19:25
Creating a new city from scratch (with Erick Brimen)
Read the full transcript here. What does it take to start a new city, especially one designed to be a special economic zone (SEZ)? What are the advantages and disadvantages to having a private company as manager of a city? Should governments be profit-maximizing? Can people choose to live in one of the Zonas de Empleo y Desarrollo Económico (ZEDE) cities in Honduras while also opting out of its specific government services? What are some legitimate reasons governments should regulate businesses? Are medicines produced in SEZs safe? How do ZEDE investors make money? To what extent can (or should) a SEZ's laws override state and federal laws? What do the ZEDEs in Honduras look like right now? How many people live in them? Why has there been pushback against them? Are SEZs considered "political" projects? Can a SEZ take land from private owners? Is anyone allowed to move into a SEZ?Erick Brimen is a finance professional, team leader, and serial entrepreneur who is passionate about investing in life-enhancing opportunities that further human flourishing. He has led Honduras Próspera Inc.'s ongoing development of the Próspera ZEDE free zone in Honduras, raising nearly $110 million to advance his vision of eliminating poverty through delivering free market governance as a service. Erick started his career in private banking, working at Brown Brothers Harriman & Co. He later moved to investment banking as a mergers and acquisition sell-side advisor for AG Edwards & Sons (now Wells Fargo). After investment banking, Erick joined Ernst & Young's London consulting practice, where he advised buy-side private equity clients as they considered acquisition targets. Soon after, he was recruited by the Borealis Group to join as CFO of Latin American operations, leading the creation of multiple business units. When the time was right, Erick started his entrepreneurial career in the world of financial intermediation as a founder of ComparaMejor.com. In late 2013, Erick sold another of his tech companies to start NeWay Capital. NeWay Capital LLC is globally-focused and seeks to identify free zone opportunities with partner host countries throughout the world. As Chairman and CEO of NeWay Capital LLC's affiliate Honduras Próspera Inc., Erick is focused on replicating the success of Dubai, Hong Kong, and Singapore in a Honduran free zone located primarily on the beautiful island of Roatán. He has three young children with his wife, Colleen Brimen. He was born Venezuelan and is a U.S. Citizen by choice. Learn more about him at his website, erickbrimen.com. StaffSpencer Greenberg — Host / DirectorJosh Castle — ProducerRyan Kessler — Audio EngineerUri Bram — FactotumWeAmplify — TranscriptionistsMusicBroke for FreeJosh WoodwardLee RosevereQuiet Music for Tiny Robotswowamusiczapsplat.comAffiliatesClearer ThinkingGuidedTrackMind EasePositlyUpLift[Read more]
Clearer Thinking is a podcast about ideas that truly matter. If you enjoy learning about powerful, practical concepts and frameworks, wish you had more deep, intellectual conversations in your life, or are looking for non-BS self-improvement, then we think you'll love this podcast! Each week we invite a brilliant guest to bring four important ideas to discuss for an in-depth conversation. Topics include psychology, society, behavior change, philosophy, science, artificial intelligence, math, economics, self-help, mental health, and technology. We focus on ideas that can be applied right now to make your life better or to help you better understand yourself and the world, aiming to teach you the best mental tools to enhance your learning, self-improvement efforts, and decision-making. • We take on important, thorny questions like: • What's the best way to help a friend or loved one going through a difficult time? How can we make our worldviews more accurate? How can we hone the accuracy of our thinking? What are the advantages of using our "gut" to make decisions? And when should we expect careful, analytical reflection to be more effective? Why do societies sometimes collapse? And what can we do to reduce the chance that ours collapses? Why is the world today so much worse than it could be? And what can we do to make it better? What are the good and bad parts of tradition? And are there more meaningful and ethical ways of carrying out important rituals, such as honoring the dead? How can we move beyond zero-sum, adversarial negotiations and create more positive-sum interactions?
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