Manifold

This is the second episode of our series based on interviews for the documentary film, Dreamers and Doomers, about the SF Bay Area in the last days before AGI. 

Steve interviews Jesse Hoogland, co-founder and executive director of Timaeus, an AI safety research org working on applications of Singular Learning Theory (SLT) for AI safety. SLT establishes a connection between the geometry of the loss landscape and internal structure in models. This connection is used to develop scalable, rigorous tools for evaluating, interpreting, and aligning neural networks. Jesse is one of the leading young minds in the new generation of AI safety researchers.
https://www.jessehoogland.com/

(00:00) - Jesse interview at FAR Labs, Berkeley

(00:54) - Introduction

(01:50) - From Physics to AI Safety

(08:36) - AI Is Dangerous

(26:08) - Funding, P(Doom), and Futures

(56:21) - Trauma and Safety Vibes

(01:00:39) - Asymptotic Guarantees Debate

(01:03:54) - Mapping the Safety Tribes

(01:26:09) - Timelines, AI Pause, and Failure Modes

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Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU. Please send any questions or suggestions to [email protected] or Steve on X @hsu_steve.

Jeremy Nixon is a prominent AI researcher, entrepreneur, and the co-founder of AGI House, a leading "hacker house" community for artificial intelligence developers in Silicon Valley. He studied Applied Math, Computer Science, and Economics at Harvard and was previously a researcher at Google Brain.

This footage was shot for a documentary project, "Dreamers and Doomers," about the SF Bay Area and the dawn of AGI.

(00:00) - Dreamers and Doomers: Jeremy Nixon at AGI House – #105

(01:47) - Introduction and Welcome

(05:56) - Jeremy Nixon's biography

(08:48) - AGI House and collectives

(43:59) - AI and Scientific Research

(45:52) - Existential Risks and Doom

(54:14) - AI and Human Progress

(01:26:42) - Job Automation and Society

(01:31:35) - Future of AI and Technology

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Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU. Please send any questions or suggestions to [email protected] or Steve on X @hsu_steve.

Links:
Breakneck: China's Quest to Engineer the Future
https://www.amazon.com/Breakneck-Chinas-Quest-Engineer-Future/dp/1324106034

Dan's 2025 annual letter
https://danwang.co/2025-letter/
Related episodes:
Jian Lian on Industrial Maximalism, Manifold Episode #99
https://www.manifold1.com/episodes/jian-lian-on-chinas-industrial-policy-and-global-strategy-99

(00:00) - Introduction and Welcome

(02:14) - Breakneck - Dan's huge book

(05:00) - China's Technological and Political Landscape

(21:07) - Industrial Maximalism and its Discontents

(47:59) - Chinese Researchers in Silicon Valley and Tsinghua

(51:09) - Excerpts from Dan's 2025 annual letter

(52:56) - China's Market Competition and Innovation

(56:34) - AI, Automation, and Future Risks

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Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU. Please send any questions or suggestions to [email protected] or Steve on X @hsu_steve.

Steve and Alf discuss geopolitical events of 2025 and what they expect in 2026.

Links:
Manifold episode with Han Feizi, Letter From Beijing
https://www.manifold1.com/episodes/letter-from-beijing-with-han-feizi-72

Previous crossover episodes:

Weeks Where Decades Happen
https://www.manifold1.com/episodes/seeking-truth-from-facts-weeks-where-decades-happen

AI, China, Tariffs, Geopolitics
https://www.manifold1.com/episodes/seeking-truth-from-facts-ai-china-tariffs-geopolitics-84

(00:00) - Geopolitics 2026, crossover with Seeking Truth From Facts podcast – #103

(02:10) - US-China Economic Tensions

(05:45) - Technology and Strategic Shifts

(08:48) - Trump's Geopolitical Strategy

(17:43) - Middle East Developments

(28:41) - US-China Competition and Taiwan

(33:44) - Venezuela and International Law

–
Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU. Please send any questions or suggestions to [email protected] or Steve on X @hsu_steve.

This is a two-part episode. The first ~30m covers the most important 2025 breakthroughs in polygenic embryo screening, while the second 30m focuses specifically on AI capabilities at the frontier of human knowledge. Both segments make predictions for 2026 and beyond.
Links:

Chinese billionaires, Philo-semitism, and the Chosen embryos:
https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/2000206116823675078

My talk from Reproductive Frontiers 2025 in Berkeley:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n64rrRPtCa8

Previous episodes on frontier AI capabilities in math and theoretical physics
https://www.manifold1.com/episodes/theoretical-physics-with-generative-ai-101
https://www.manifold1.com/episodes/ais-win-math-olympiad-gold-prof-lin-yang-ucla-97
Chapter Markers:

(00:00) - Introduction

(02:22) - Advancements in Polygenic Prediction of Human Traits

(03:20) - Polygenic Risk Scores in Healthcare

(08:15) - Embryo Selection and IVF

(20:37) - Public Perceptions: billionaires and FOMO

(31:40) - AI advances in 2025: High end capabilities and use of AI at the frontier of human knowledge

(55:33) - Conclusion and predictions for 2026

–
Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty positions at Yale, the University of Oregon, and MSU. Please send any questions or suggestions to [email protected] or Steve on X @hsu_steve.