Weather Geeks

Guest: Amber Sullins, Chief Meteorologist at ABC15
When most people think about dangerous weather, they think about hurricanes, tornadoes, or blizzards. But in the deserts of the Southwest, one of the most impactful—and often overlooked—hazards can arrive as a towering wall of dust. Today on Weather Geeks, we're joined by Amber Sullins, a longtime Arizona meteorologist who has spent her career helping people navigate everything from extreme heat and monsoon storms to the massive dust storms that have become synonymous with life in the desert Southwest. We'll talk about her journey forecasting some of the country's most unique weather, and we'll take a deep dive into the development of the new PHX-DUST scale—a groundbreaking effort designed to classify dust storms and better communicate their impacts to the public. From the science behind the scale to the challenges of translating complex research into actionable information, we'll explore how meteorologists are working to improve awareness and resilience in the face of one of Arizona's signature weather threats.
Chapters
00:00 Introduction to Dust Storms in the Southwest
01:00 Amber Sullins' Journey in Meteorology
02:21 Unique Weather Challenges in Arizona
03:22 Forecasting Monsoon and Dust Storms
05:05 Factors Influencing Dust Storm Severity
07:16 Impact of Water Scarcity on Dust Storms
08:40 Health Risks from Dust Storm Particulates
10:33 Types of Dust Storms and Their Detection
14:15 Break 1
14:18 Development of the Phoenix Dust Scale
17:02 Using Air Quality Data for Dust Severity
20:27 Safety Tips for Dust Storms
22:11 Assessing Dust Storm Intensity Quickly
24:17 Applicability of the Dust Scale Elsewhere
25:19 Break 2
28:37 Sharing the Dust Scale with the Public
30:01 Acceptance and Validation of the Scale
32:41 Future Weather Challenges in Arizona
33:40 Upcoming Weather Events and Outlook

Resources
phoenixdust.asu.edu - https://phoenixdust.asu.edu
American Meteorological Society - https://www.ametsoc.org
Arizona State University - https://www.asu.edu
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Guest: Dr. Michael Brennan, Director of NOAA's National Hurricane Center
The peak of hurricane season is right around the corner—and whether you live along the coast or hundreds of miles inland, what happens in the tropics can have real impacts on your life. The question is: what do you actually need to know before the season really ramps up? Today on Weather Geeks, we’re getting a preview straight from the source. Dr. Michael Brennan, Director of the National Hurricane Center, joins us to walk through what forecasters are watching this year, how hurricane prediction continues to improve, and where the biggest challenges still remain. We’ll also talk about new tools and products coming out of the National Hurricane Center, how technology is shaping the future of forecasting, and what all of this means for you when the next storm is on the horizon.
Chapters
00:00 Introduction to Hurricane Season and Its Impacts
02:45 Understanding Tropical Storm Arthur and Its Effects
05:41 El Niño's Influence on Hurricane Activity
08:34 The Importance of Preparedness and Messaging
11:59 Evolving Forecasting Techniques and Challenges
14:15 Break 1
14:40 Advancements in Predictive Modeling and AI
17:44 The Role of Communication in Weather Forecasting
20:46 Inland Hurricane Threats and Their Impacts
23:51 Future Directions in Hurricane Research and Forecasting
26:54 Conclusion and Final Thoughts on Hurricane Preparedness
26:58 Break 2
27:09 Conclusion and Final Thoughts on Hurricane Preparednes

Resources
NOAA National Hurricane Center - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
Google DeepMind - https://deepmind.com/
Hurricane Forecasting Models (HWRF, HAFS) - https://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/products/hwrf/

Guest Links
Twitter - https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic
LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/in/michael-brennan-5a90322b2

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Guest: Dr. Mike Farrar, Booz Allen Hamilton
Weather forecasting has come a long way—from hand-drawn maps and limited observations to a world driven by supercomputers, satellites, and real-time data. But as technology continues to evolve, so does the challenge of making forecasts faster, smarter, and more useful for the people who rely on them every day. Today on Weather Geeks, we’re joined by Dr. Mike Farrar, whose career has spanned research, operations, and leadership across the meteorological community. His company has been tasked to help modernize the National Weather Service, and with that he’s helping shape what the future of forecasting could look like for both meteorologists and the public alike. We’ll talk about the biggest challenges facing weather operations today, how emerging technologies like AI and cloud computing are changing the forecasting landscape, and why communication and public trust remain just as important as the science itself.
Chapters
00:00 Introduction and Career Background of Dr. Mike Farrar
01:30 The Evolution of Weather Forecasting Technologies
04:18 Transformational Advances in Meteorology
09:15 The Private Sector and Meteorology's Growth
12:16 Break 1
12:19 The Impact of AI and Cloud Computing
19:28 Modernizing the National Weather Service
22:55 The Role of Human Forecasters in the Age of AI
26:51 Break 2
28:01 The North Star of Meteorology: Science and Service
30:18 Skills for Future Meteorologists
33:50 Embracing Change in the Meteorological Field
34:29 Closing Remarks and Resources

Resources
Booz Allen Hamilton - https://www.boozallen.com
NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Prediction - https://www.weather.gov/ncep/
American Meteorological Society - https://www.ametsoc.org
AWIPS (Advanced Weather Information Processing System) - https://vlab.noaa.gov/web/nws-heritage/-/introducing-awips
NCAR (National Center for Atmospheric Research) - https://ncar.ucar.edu

Guest links
LinkedIn - linkedin.com/in/mikefarrar-wx
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Guest: Dr. Jennifer Francis, Woodwell Climate Research Center
When we think about the Arctic, it's easy to picture a remote landscape of sea ice and polar bears. But what happens in the far north doesn't stay there. As the Arctic continues to warm at an unprecedented pace, scientists are uncovering how those changes may be influencing weather patterns across the Northern Hemisphere—from prolonged heat waves and persistent droughts to heavy rainfall and unusual swings in the jet stream. Today on Weather Geeks, we're joined by atmospheric scientist Dr. Jennifer Francis, whose pioneering research has helped shape our understanding of the connection between Arctic climate change and the behavior of the jet stream. We'll explore why the Arctic is warming so rapidly, how those changes can ripple through the atmosphere, and what they may mean for the persistent weather patterns we've seen in recent years—including the extreme heat that has gripped much of Europe this summer.
Chapters
00:00 Dr. Jennifer Francis's background and interest in weather
05:22 Jet stream patterns and their role in extreme weather
13:21 Break 1
14:31 Mechanisms of Arctic amplification and feedbacks
22:57 Stratospheric polar vortex and winter weather effects
25:04 Break 2
25:58 Summer jet stream behavior and climate connections
32:08 Ocean heat waves and their influence on jet stream patterns
34:33 Current research and future challenges in Arctic climate studies
37:06 Closing remarks and resources

Resources
Woodwell Climate Research Center - https://www.woodwellclimate.org/
Jennifer Francis - Research Profile - https://www.woodwellclimate.org/our-scientists/jennifer-francis/
Clausius-Clapeyron Relationship - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clausius%E2%80%93Clapeyron_relation
Guest links
Twitter - https://x.com/WoodwellClimate https://x.com/JFrancisClimate
Research Center - https://www.woodwellclimate.org/
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Guest: Dr. Jennifer Collins & Dr. Nadia Bloemendaal
When it comes to hurricanes, we often rely on a familiar scale to understand their strength — categories based largely on wind speed. But anyone who’s experienced a storm knows that impacts go far beyond just how fast the winds are blowing. Today, we’re joined by Jennifer Collins and Nadia Bloemendaal, whose work is helping to rethink how we model and measure tropical cyclones. They’re the minds behind the STORM model, a powerful tool for simulating thousands of storms across the globe, and the developers of the Tropical Cyclone Severity Scale — a new way of looking at storm risk that goes beyond traditional categories. In this episode, we’ll explore how large-scale modeling is changing our understanding of hurricane risk, why current classification systems may fall short, and how new approaches could improve the way we communicate danger and prepare for future storms.
Chapters
00:00 Introduction to the New Storm Model
00:20 The Storm Model's Impact on Various Sectors
01:02 Challenges in Developing a Global Storm Model
02:21 Modeling Hazards Beyond Wind: Rain and Surge
04:31 Motivation for a New Hurricane Severity Scale
06:42 Limitations of the Wind-Only Scale
08:35 The New Scale: Incorporating Multiple Hazards
10:27 Break 1
11:28 The Concept of a Category 6 Storm
13:05 Public Perception and Education Strategies
15:22 Localized and Personalized Risk Communication
17:27 Real-World Applications and Case Studies
19:20 Future Directions and Climate Change Impacts
21:54 Inertia and Adoption Challenges in Meteorology
23:49 Break 2
25:00 Public Perception of Storm Categories
27:33 The Path Toward Standardization and Adoption
30:12 Future Collaborations and Final Thoughts
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