Oscars Outsider

The Oscar race keeps getting messier. We break down the first reactions to Digger, the New York Film Festival relaunch of Paper Tiger, the growing momentum behind I Play Rocky, and the latest category-placement news around The Odyssey. Then we dive into what may be the most controversial Oscar category: Best Documentary.
We make our early documentary predictions and get into NAZA, Musk, 14th, You Can See Everything, The History of Concrete, Once Upon a Time in Harlem and more — plus the bizarre history of a category where Academy voters once reportedly used flashlights to signal when they wanted a movie eliminated.
And before we wrap up, we preview next week’s Oscars Outsider fantasy draft and some of the rule changes we’re making for year two.

Is Digger already in trouble before it even opens?With the film’s release approaching, we look at the warning signs around Warner Bros.’ campaign, the strange press tour built around Tom Cruise’s “Mr. Movies” persona, and whether Cruise can still sell an original movie the way his reputation suggests.We also wrap up TIFF, where La Bola Negra won the People’s Choice Award and cemented itself as a major Best Picture contender, before previewing the New York Film Festival. Which films could surge in New York—and which could leave with their Oscar stock damaged?Plus: Artificial, Behemoth!, Fjord, Paper Tiger, You Can See Everything, I Play Rocky, and more as the fall festival season starts reshaping the Oscar race.Oscars Outsider covers the awards race, film festivals, Hollywood history, and the movies fighting their way toward Oscar night.Our last year's Oscars fantasy draft: https://youtu.be/wlQ7VZcnNPo

The fall festival season is starting to reshape the Oscar race.We break down the surprising end of the Venice Film Festival, where Woman Unknown pulled off an unexpected Golden Lion win, before turning to one of the biggest questions coming out of Telluride and TIFF: is Fjord suddenly in trouble? After winning the Palme d’Or at Cannes, its North American reception has been much more divided—and the backlash could matter when awards season gets serious.We also get into the huge TIFF response to I Play Rocky, whether it could become this year’s crowd-pleasing Best Picture contender, the growing buzz around Artificial, Netflix finally giving some of its awards movies real theatrical windows, France’s latest International Feature dilemma, and some increasingly wild Oscar predictions.Oscars Outsider looks at the awards race, film festivals, Hollywood, and Oscar history from slightly outside the usual consensus.Subscribe for weekly Oscar predictions, reactions, and film history.I’d use “Is Fjord Starting to Fall?” rather than repeating “Is Fjord in Trouble?” verbatim—the thumbnail and title reinforce each other without saying exactly the same thing.

The Best International Feature Film Oscar is the most chaotic, politically charged, and scandal-ridden category in Academy history — and Dylan, Craig, and Sean are here to prove it.

In this episode: a full history of the award from its 1948 origins to today, including the infamous 1993 Uruguay scandal (a disqualified film, a federal lawsuit, and a French co-production sitting on the same ballot), the 1967 race where The Battle of Algiers won the Golden Lion while French critics boycotted its Venice premiere and stormed out of the auditorium, and the Michael Haneke Caché controversy that rewrote the language rules forever.

Plus: how the Anatomy of a Fall debacle directly caused a sweeping new AMPAS rule — and what it means for the 2025 race. Early country submissions are in: Romania is claiming the Palme d'Or winner Fjord, Japan grabbed the Hamaguchi film All of a Sudden, South Korea went with Possible Love over Hope. And the hosts react to mid-Venice buzz on Wild Horse Nine, Robert Pattinson in Prime Time, and Nathan Fielder's surprise Elizabeth Holmes documentary from Telluride.

Films discussed: The Battle of Algiers, A Man and a Woman, Fjord, All of a Sudden, Possible Love, Wild Horse Nine, Anatomy of a Fall, Caché, Paradise Now, La Strada, A Place in the World, Close to Eden, Loves of a Blond, and more.

Chapters:
0:00 Venice & Telluride news
13:58 History of Best International Film
28:36 The 1993 Uruguay disqualification scandal
42:15 The 1967 race: Battle of Algiers vs. A Man and a Woman
1:09:28 New AMPAS rule & 2025 race submissions

Venice 2025 is days away — and awards season is officially on. Dylan and Craig break down the full in-competition lineup, make their Golden Lion predictions, and identify the Oscar sleepers you need to know before the first screenings drop.

On the table: Is Wild Horse Nine the safest Golden Lion bet, or can Lee Chang-dong's long-awaited Possible Love pull off a surprise? Why Florian Zeller's Bunker (Penélope Cruz, Paul Dano, Stephen Graham) could be the dark horse Oscar launch of the festival. The shocking stat about South Korean cinema at the Oscars — only ONE nomination ever, and it won Best Picture. Plus: the late-addition NASA documentary from the No Other Land directors (produced by Jonathan Glazer), Maggie Gyllenhaal as jury president and what that signals, Nanni Moretti's return to Venice after 36 years, and a brief history of how Venice went from the Mussolini Cup to Hollywood's favourite awards launchpad.

Films discussed: Wild Horse Nine · Possible Love · Ink · Bunker · Primetime · Company · Look Back · Woman Unknown · NASA · All of a Sudden · Minotaur · Nomadland · The Shape of Water · Poor Things · Roma · Joker

Categories: Best Picture · Best International Feature Film · Best Documentary · Golden Lion

🎬 Subscribe for Venice reaction episodes and our upcoming deep-dive into Best International Feature Film history.

Chapters:
0:00 Introduction & news
8:11 Venice history
15:07 Golden Lion predictions
23:31 Oscar sleepers & dark horses
32:26 Personal picks & wrap-up