Reasonably Optimistic

Trust in public health institutions has fractured since the covid-19 pandemic began, even as the threat of new outbreaks remains. Ebola is spreading in parts of Central Africa. Hantavirus has left some cruise ship passengers under quarantine. Neither is a repeat of covid-19 — and public health officials say the risk to most Americans remains low — but even distant outbreaks now provoke fear, skepticism and debate.

Host Megan McArdle talks with physician and Washington Post contributing columnist Leana S. Wen about what we learned from covid-19, why trust in public health infrastructure has become so fragile and whether America is better prepared for the next serious outbreak — or simply more exhausted and distrustful.

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Europe promises a life many Americans envy: longer vacations, universal health care, beautiful cities and a slower pace. But those benefits come with trade-offs.Host Megan McArdle looks past the usual America versus Europe arguments to explore what economic indicators reveal about quality of life.

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Boys and men are struggling across some of the most important measures: education, employment, family life and mental health. But too often, attempts to talk seriously about these problems get pulled into a culture-war fight. So, what’s actually happening, who is struggling and how we can help them without the conversation being framed as men versus women?

Host Megan McArdle is joined by Richard Reeves, author of "Of Boys and Men," to break down the reality of the gender divide.

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Host Megan McArdle explores the rise of the celebrity candidate, from Ronald Reagan to Arnold Schwarzenegger to Trump himself. She explains how parasocial relationships shape modern elections, and why Trump’s success depended on a unique mix of media savviness, outsider status, timing and luck that may be impossible to replicate. And she argues that if America wants a more stable political future, it will need to return to a more normal kind of politics.

Prediction markets are having a moment. But what are they actually good for? Economist Robin Hanson has been thinking about this for decades. Long before betting markets went mainstream, he argued they could do more than forecast the future — they could help us make better decisions.

Host Megan McArdle talks with Hanson about how prediction markets work, why they often beat other forms of forecasting and how today’s versions could be improved.

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