Reasonably Optimistic

Host Megan McArdle explores the rise of the celebrity candidate, from Ronald Reagan to Arnold Schwarzenegger to Trump himself. She explains how parasocial relationships shape modern elections, and why Trump’s success depended on a unique mix of media savviness, outsider status, timing and luck that may be impossible to replicate. And she argues that if America wants a more stable political future, it will need to return to a more normal kind of politics.

Prediction markets are having a moment. But what are they actually good for? Economist Robin Hanson has been thinking about this for decades. Long before betting markets went mainstream, he argued they could do more than forecast the future — they could help us make better decisions.

Host Megan McArdle talks with Hanson about how prediction markets work, why they often beat other forms of forecasting and how today’s versions could be improved.

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The hantavirus outbreak has reminded many about the mistakes of covid-19. In this episode, hosts Adam O'Neal, James Hohmann, Carine Hajjar and Kate Andrews discuss whether the confirmed cases on the Hondius cruise ship should cause concern — or if the media and public are overreacting.

Zohran Mamdani ran for mayor of New York on a platform of taxing the rich, proposing new levies targeting billionaires. Host Megan McArdle argues we’ve seen this kind of rapid shift before.

In the 1970s, New York spiraled into crisis as rising spending, a shrinking tax base and economic change led to crime, population loss and near-bankruptcy. Those lessons still matter today, especially as remote work and mobile wealth make cities more vulnerable to decline. But these same forces also create opportunities for cities that adapt, grow and make themselves attractive places to live and work.

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Social media is designed to keep us scrolling. But is it also keeping us angry? Rage bait is rewarded and amplified. It’s easy to react and even easier to get pulled in. Over time, this has changed how we interact with the world — and with each other. But is this just bad behavior, or something closer to addiction?

Host Megan McArdle is joined by Keith Humphreys, a Stanford professor and psychologist, to break down the mechanics of addiction and how they might apply to life online. Together, they explore why rage is so compelling, how platforms keep us hooked and whether it’s possible to break the cycle.

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