Reasonably Optimistic

Artificial intelligence can feel as though it arrived overnight. But today’s AI boom grew out of a vision championed by a small group of researchers who believed machines could one day rival human intelligence. That once far-fetched idea has become a global race that no one seems to know how to stop.

Host Megan McArdle talks with Kevin Roose, author of "The AGI Chronicles," about the unusual people and rivalries behind the AI revolution, why the race for superintelligence is so difficult to slow down and whether governments can shape what comes next.

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When journalist Jon Ronson’s son arrived at a Connecticut castle expecting a party, the owner told him and his friends that they had actually been invited to appear on a reality show. It quickly became clear that the show wasn’t what it seemed. That bizarre encounter — and the investigation it set in motion — became the basis for Ronson's new book, “The Castle: Adventures in a World of Unraveling Men,” which is about men struggling to find their place in the world.

Host Megan McArdle talks with the author about modern masculinity, the false promise of online fame, how outrage can become an identity and what happens when attention begins to replace purpose.

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The streaming revolution promised viewers an endless library of movies and shows for less than cable. Netflix led that charge, becoming the era's dominant streaming service. That transformation upended the economics that made television such a reliable business and created an industry with more competition, higher costs and a constant fight to keep viewers from canceling.

Host Megan McArdle breaks down what Netflix’s recent leadership shake-up signals — and why the company that transformed television may have to learn some lessons from the old system.

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The Democratic Socialists of America was once on the fringes of American politics. Now, DSA candidates are winning primaries, challenging establishment Democrats and pushing the Democratic Party leftward on everything from housing and health care to policing and Israel. But can the movement turn that energy into lasting political power?

Host Megan McArdle is joined by David Weigel, a national politics reporter at Semafor, to discuss the DSA’s rise and the question it raises for Democrats: Is democratic socialism the future of their party?

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On platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket, users can bet on elections, interest-rate cuts, corporate earnings and almost any question with an answer that will eventually be revealed. Those bets can produce a different kind of forecast than a traditional poll. But what happens when betting on everything becomes easier and more socially acceptable?

Host Megan McArdle is joined by Robin Hanson, an economist at George Mason University and one of the earliest advocates for prediction markets. They discuss how betting markets compare with polls and experts, the risks of manipulation and insider trading, whether people should be able to bet on elections and wars, and what it would take for prediction markets to become a useful tool for business and government.

This episode was originally published on May 13, 2026.

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