Macro Hive Conversations With Bilal Hafeez

Jay Pelosky is the founder of TPW Advisory. He has over 35 years of buy-side and sell-side financial market experience. Before going independent, Jay was at Morgan Stanley, where he was ranked #1 by Institutional Investor in Global Equity Strategy and Global Asset Allocation Strategy. In this podcast, we discuss:
The Tripolar World & Spending Super Cycle
US Valuation "Haircut" vs. Non-US Bargains
Reframing Bearish Narratives & High Nominal Growth
European Plays: Financial Consolidation, Spain, and Poland
Emerging Markets, China's Tech/Biotech, and Brazil Rate Cuts
Energy Security, Clean Energy Adoption, and Battery Plays
US Midterm Outlook & Policy Incoherence
Year-End "Face Ripper" Rally & Answering AI ROI

Rory Johnston is a Toronto-based oil market researcher, the founder of Commodity Context, a lecturer at the University of Toronto's Munk School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, as well as a Fellow with both the Canadian Global Affairs Institute and the Payne Institute for Public Policy at the Colorado School of Mines. Prior to founding Commodity Context, Rory led commodity economics research at Scotiabank. In this podcast, we discuss: 

$100 Brent and Historic Backwardation
The Global Refined Product Crisis
Hormuz "Shuttle Trade" and War Insurance Costs
The Red Sea Chokepoint and Houthi Threat
Russian Refinery Attacks and Fuel Export Bans
China's Import Cuts and Hidden SPR Release
China's Potential Winter Refining Bailout
US Midterm Dilemmas and Export Ban Risks
India's LPG Crisis and Offshore SPR Deals
US Equity in Venezuela and Heavy Crude Spreads
Canada's Westward Pipeline Push

In this solo episode, Bilal flips the script to pull back the curtain on his personal research workflow, addressing a surge of questions from peers on how to effectively apply AI to financial market analysis using six core principles. Some key points include:
Machines Speaking Human
The "CLEAR" Prompting Framework
Gold-Standard Human Evaluation
Converting Prompts to "Skills"
Custom Session Memory & Feedback Loops
Delegating to "Co-Work" Agents
Reliable Market Analysis via RAG

Dominique Dwor-Frecaut is the Chief US economist and macro strategist for Macro Hive and is based in Los Angeles. Before that, she worked at various hedge funds, including Bridgewater. Prior to the buy side, she worked at the New York Fed, IMF, and the World Bank. She holds a PhD in Economics from the London School of Economics. In this podcast, we discuss:
The "Low-Hire, Low-Fire" Labour Puzzle
The Imported AI Capex Illusion
Chips as the New Oil Supply Shock
The K-Shaped Consumer & GFC-Level Delinquency
The Fragile Savings Rate Cushion
The Return of FOMC Dissension
The Waller Swing Vote & the 2026 Rate Path
The 2027 AI De-escalation Surprise

Jon Turek is the founder and CEO of JST Advisors, a hedge fund advisory service that publishes a weekly research note with global macro trade ideas. JST Advisors works closely with hedge funds on developing asymmetric macro trade ideas and market themes. Outside of JST Advisors, Jon worked as a portfolio manager at Brevan Howard and as an analyst at Moore Capital. In this podcast, we discuss:
The Substack Divide of Equities vs. Macro
The Buy-Side Paradox of PM Asymmetry and Pod Reality
The "Owl" Fed and Political Optimisation over Conviction
The Trillion-Dollar AI Fiscal Program
The Death of the 2010s Savings Glut
Treasury Buybacks and "Whack-A-Mole" Markets
Europe's Impending China Tariff Shock
The Simmering Geopolitical In-Between for Oil