Macro Hive Conversations With Bilal Hafeez

Martin Wolf is the chief economics commentator at the Financial Times in London. He was awarded the CBE (Commander of the British Empire) in 2000 'for services to financial journalism'. In this podcast, we discuss:
AI: The Ultimate General-Purpose Technology
Market Complacency in the Middle East
Jay Powell's "Superb" but Flawed Legacy
The "Perverse" Risks of Kevin Warsh
The UK's Productivity Puzzle and Brexit
From "Democratic Recession" to Depression
The "Graduate Trap" and Disaffected Youth
Advice for the Next Generation

Daniel Rasmussen is the founder and managing partner of Verdad Advisers, an investment firm with over $1 billion in assets under management across multiple asset classes. He is the author of The Humble Investor (2025) and American Uprising (2011). Prior to founding Verdad, he worked at Bain Capital Private Equity and Bridgewater Associates. In this podcast, we discuss:
Investing as Meta-analysis
The Evolution of Private Equity
Stranded Software Assets
The Private Credit Mirage
The "Adjusted EBITDA" Trap
Small-Cap Growth Dangers
The AI Capex Cycle
AI Productivity Mindset

Neil Dutta is Head of Economic Research at Renaissance Macro Research (renMac). He leads their macroeconomic research efforts, with an emphasis on analysing the US economy, the Federal Reserve, global trends, and cross-market investment themes. He is considered a market economist, looking at the economic data and trying to highlight the risks to the consensus as he sees them. 

Prior to RenMac, Neil spent seven years at Bank of America-Merrill Lynch. There, he was a Senior Economist covering both the United States and Canada. In this podcast, we discuss:
Neil's Wall Street "Origin Story"
The Four Pillars of Economic Analysis
The Real Income Squeeze
AI, RSUs, and State Tax Revenues
Pervasive Optimism and Reflexivity Risk
The Fed's "Path of Least Resistance"
The Warsh Nomination and Forward Guidance
Productivity Boom or Demand Story?
AI's Wealth Effect Beyond Accounting
The 2027 Fiscal Headwind
Substack vs. Institutional Research

Dr. Dirk Willer is a Managing Director and Global Head of Macro and Asset Allocation at Citi Research in New York. Prior to this role, Dirk headed global Emerging Market Strategy, where he and his teams were consistently ranked in the top three in the institutional investor surveys. Previously, Dirk worked at Omega Advisors and RHG Capital as a global macro strategist and portfolio manager, and at Swiss Bank as a fixed income strategist for Russia and Eastern Europe. Dirk holds a PhD and MSc in Economics from the London School of Economics. Dirk is also the author of an influential book on how to trade emerging market fixed income, published by Wiley in 2020, and of a book on global macro trading, released in 2026. In this podcast, we discuss:
Unlearning the QE Reflex
Trading "Close to the Fire"
The Nearest Neighbour Regime Framework
PMIs vs. "Noisy" Indicators
Yield Curve Inversions and Fed Lags
The "GMO" Bubble Methodology
Credit as the Equity Canary
The Four-Indicator Dollar Model
Fading Geopolitical Shocks
The Role of Human Judgment in AI

Dylan is the founder of arcMacro, where he analyses macro and private markets. His previous roles include serving as an economist at Goldman Sachs and Rosenberg Research, and later as a private market consultant at McKinsey. In this podcast, we discuss:
The Hormuz Supply Shock
Stagflation as the New Base Case
AI Capex vs. Energy Headwinds
A Hawkish Fed Outlook
Canada's Productivity Pivot
The USMCA Trade Cloud
Private Market Maturation
Normalising Credit Defaults
AI's Private Market Future