More or Less

It’s an AI-heavy episode with real stakes: Jessica digs into OpenAI’s evolving approach to shopping and why “closing the loop” on commerce could be the proving ground for consumer monetization. The group sparrs over charts: OpenAI vs. Anthropic annualized revenue, what “slope” investors actually care about, and whether Anthropic’s developer-first strategy (code, tokens, and high ARPU) is the smarter path than consumer mindshare.Sam argues that “intelligence” is heading toward a global, frictionless commodity market (bad for margins, great for usage) and introduces the idea of “dark pools” (proprietary access/data/relationships) as the only durable moat. Dave counters with the more optimistic take: AI is collapsing the line between “consumer” and “developer,” turning everyone into a builder, and launching a new creative medium (with examples spanning from software to film). Brit adds fuel with “nano-targeted” commerce and a tour through A16Z’s Top 50 GenAI web products list, highlighting both mainstream shifts and the internet’s… more ‘unexpected’ categories.Finally: a truly out-of-left-field deal pitch from Jess: should someone buy the Tennis Channel for ~$1B? Plus a rapid-fire pop culture close (Kelce’s return, Oscars bets, and what everyone’s watching) before Sam heads back to the sauna.Chapters:0:00 — Intro & Sam's Sauna Hat1:33 — First-Ever MOL Podcast Ad3:54 — ChatGPT's Shopping Pivot7:19 — The Chart: OpenAI vs Anthropic Revenue11:52 — The Slope: Linear or Super Linear?16:10 — Commerce Is Bad. Attention Is Good.19:04 — AI Is Turning Everyone Into a Builder20:15 — "$1B Raised, $900M spent on Inference"23:17 — AI Is Worse Than the Cable Business35:58 — Dark Pools: Death of the Open Marketplace40:45 — The P50 Problem: What Happens to Average People?42:38 — "Software Is Totally Commoditized"45:43 — Brit's Bot Corner: Anime Husband Chatbots 50:44 — Should You Buy the Tennis Channel for $1B?54:22 — Pop Culture CornerWe’re also on ↓X: https://twitter.com/moreorlesspodInstagram: https://instagram.com/moreorlessSpotify: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/moreorlesspodOn demand reactions powered by AI: https://molchat.ai/ Connect with us here:1) Sam Lessin: https://x.com/lessin2) Dave Morin: https://x.com/davemorin3) Jessica Lessin: https://x.com/Jessicalessin4) Brit Morin: https://x.com/brit

This week the squad breaks down the Anthropic vs OpenAI drama (Fire Sam Altman is trending again), debates whether Apple is quietly winning the AI race by spending $0 while everyone else burns $100 billion, and confronts the question no one in Silicon Valley wants to answer: why aren't 200,000 software engineers talking about losing their jobs? Sam's answer: "Because it would be to admit you're in the 200,000 getting fired, not the 200,000 getting paid more." Plus: is China winning the open source AI phenomenon, is a recession coming (Lux Capital thinks so), and how Sam believes “code is just content” despite having built six apps in a week while on conference calls, including an AI clone of the podcast using everyone's real voices. It’s your weekly dive of More or Less.
Chapters:
1:30 — Fire Sam Altman Trending Again: Dario's Leaked Slack Memo
10:15 — Sam's Vibe Coding Week: 6 Apps Including AI Versions of the Hosts
17:00 — Why AI Content Tends to Zero
20:00 — Apple M5 Chip: The Local AI Inference Play
23:30 — Block Cuts 40% of Workforce
25:30 — Will 200,000 Bay Area Software Engineers Lose Their Jobs?
30:00 — "Code Wins Arguments — But Now Everyone Can Code"
34:30 — Josh Wolfe's (Lux Capital) Recession Warning Email
36:30 — The Triangle Trade: DC, Silicon Valley & Wall Street's Narrative Collusion
39:00 — Yemen/Houthi Strike & Defense Tech
41:00 — Is Open Source AI a Chinese Phenomenon?
46:00 — The Second Wave: Agents Are the Website of This Era
49:00 — David's Protein Ice Cream

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Starting with a mini celebration: Dave defends his ski racing crown, before Sam declares software dead and capitalism broken. Even among GPs at Upfront Summit, the mood is uncertain: nobody knows whether to invest in software anymore, and many are quietly struggling to raise.The debate heats up over whether AI will democratize software creation or just accelerate capitalism's race to zero margins. Sam argues that when intelligence becomes abundant, it becomes worthless, making the entire AI industry, and by extension Silicon Valley, "pretty bad business." Dave counters that we're about to see a Cambrian explosion of software creators, finally giving billions of people agency over their digital lives.Plus: whether Stripe should buy PayPal during this opportunistic Trump-administration window, Gen Z panic-buying original iPods, Sam's shitposting-to-funding pipeline, and whether OnlyFans has the best KYC in fintechChapters:7:24 - Upfront Summit: Where Are All the LPs?
10:49 - Are VCs Still Investing in Software?
12:04 - Slow Ventures Going Contrarian: Investing While Others Freeze
13:27 - When Intelligence Goes to Zero: Why AI is Bad Business
15:53 - Polsia: $100K to $700K ARR in One Week (AI Agents Only)
19:39 - Capitalism's Black Hole: AI Makes Markets Too Efficient
25:00 - Creator Fund Thesis: Investing in Cults, Not Content
28:20 - Who Makes Money When Margins Hit Zero?
34:41 - Silicon Valley's Advantage is DEAD (The Magic Wizard Hat)
37:35 - Who Should Buy PayPal? (Stripe's One-Shot Window)
42:11 - Agentic Commerce: Do Payment Networks Even Matter?
45:18 - OpenAI Smart Speaker: Eddie Cue's Son Working on It
46:51 - Gen Z Buying Original iPods: The Analog Rebellion
We’re also on ↓X: https://twitter.com/moreorlesspodInstagram: https://instagram.com/moreorlessSpotify: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/moreorlesspodConnect with us here:1) Sam Lessin: https://x.com/lessin2) Dave Morin: https://x.com/davemorin3) Jessica Lessin: https://x.com/Jessicalessin4) Brit Morin: https://x.com/brit

In this episode of More or Less, we go from Sam's urgent care drama to the hottest debates in AI. Dave dives into his news about joining the OpenClaw Foundation board as the fastest-growing open source project in internet history faces a new chapter. While the OpenClaw founder is heading to OpenAI, Meta is launching competing agents, and the battle for personal AI is officially ON. How the "Internet of Putting iPads on Things" era returning, Anthropic vs Pentagon drama, whether AI intelligence will become worthless like cheap electricity, and why your 'normie' friends will be sending you their vibe-coded apps within 12 months.

Chapters:
3:02 Sam's Ski Injury Saga
5:00 OpenClaw Founder Going To OpenAI & Dave's Foundation Role
8:07 OpenClaw vs. Manus (On-Device vs. Cloud)
11:02 Vibe Coding: Building an App a Day
12:03 Meta vs. OpenAI Rivalry
22:00 The Fundraising Market: Mega Rounds & Narrative Capitalism
27:04 The Big Debate: Bay Area Engineers in 3 Years
41:01 Anthropic vs. The Pentagon
45:01 Intelligence as a Commodity
53:50 Tennis with Madison Keys plug

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1) Sam Lessin: https://x.com/lessin
2) Dave Morin: https://x.com/davemorin
3) Jessica Lessin: https://x.com/Jessicalessin
4) Brit Morin: https://x.com/brit

We're recording this from Jackson Hole after three days of wheeling and dealing—and yes, canceling meetings for powder. This week we're going deep on OpenClaw. The meetup had 1,500 people show up (Kevin Rose, Marissa Mayer, Ashton Kutcher were some notable guests). And now we're all spending thousands of dollars a month on AI agents we've named after Friends characters while debating whether "developer" is even a job title anymore.We talk about:•⁠ ⁠Why founders are working 24/7 and possibly burning out•⁠ ⁠The decentralized AI future (and why it's not great for OpenAI)•⁠ ⁠Dark software factories where only agents write code•⁠ ⁠Whether everyone's jobs are about to disappear (spoiler: we disagree)•⁠ ⁠The SaaS-pocalypse coming for legacy software•⁠ ⁠Personal AI sovereignty and why Apple's just sitting back laughingAlso: Google's CC assistant is… fine? And we have strong opinions about Heated Rivalry.Chapters:0:00 - Intro: Skiing in Jackson Hole2:30 - Conference Takeaways: Founders Are Working Relentlessly 7:15 - AI Burnout & the 24/7 Work Cycle12:40 - Naming Your AI Agents (Friends Edition)15:20 - How Much Are You Spending on Bots?18:45 - Google CC Assistant Review22:10 - OpenClaw Meetup: 1500 People Show Up28:30 - What Even Is a Developer Anymore?35:50 - OpenAI vs Decentralized AI: The Big Debate42:15 - Personal AI & Data Sovereignty47:20 - Dark Software Factories & Agentic Engineering52:10 - Are All the Jobs Going Away?55:40 - The SaaS Apocalypse58:20 - Pop Culture: Heated Rivalry, Nancy Guthrie Case, StrangersWe’re also on ↓X: https://twitter.com/moreorlesspodInstagram: https://instagram.com/moreorlessYouTube: https://youtu.be/KUA7ue5vB1EConnect with us here:1) Sam Lessin: https://x.com/lessin2) Dave Morin: https://x.com/davemorin3) Jessica Lessin: https://x.com/Jessicalessin4) Brit Morin: https://x.com/brit