Run the Numbers

• Is Product-Market Fit Getting Harder to Keep?

  Everyone loves talking about finding product-market fit. But what if the real challenge in 2025 is keeping it?In this solo episode, I riff on why PMF has become more fleeting than ever. I unpack what Harry Stebbings, Jason Lemkin and Rory O’Driscoll observed —companies that once had a five-year runway now fall out of PMF in five weeks. We explore AI-fueled growth curves, the myth of “escape velocity,” and why today's go-to-market edge can vanish overnight.I also shares a brutal hill from a recent road race (and the startup metaphor it unlocked), plus a text exchange with a growth investor on the hunt for vertical SaaS alpha.If you’re an operator, investor, or CFO trying to understand the new physics of scaling, this one’s for you.Run the Numbers is sponsored by Gelt. You already know tax season isn’t just a deadline—it’s a lever.At Gelt, they work with CFOs who aren’t just looking to stay compliant—they’re looking to unlock strategic value from their tax position. Think: optimized entity structures, real-time visibility across complex ownership, and proactive tax planning that actually moves the needle on cash flow.Gelt gives you quarterly strategy check-ins and proactive estimates, all designed to lower your effective tax rate, protect equity value, and drive long-term efficiency. You get direct access to your Gelt CPA and a clean, modern platform to track it all.Learn if you qualify at go.joingelt.com/mostlymetrics and schedule a call to learn more. Get full access to Mostly metrics at www.mostlymetrics.com/subscribe

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  7:07
• Not All Revenue Is Good Revenue: Rob Paterson of Employment Hero Explains

  In this episode, CJ sits down with Rob Paterson, CFO of Employment Hero, to talk about smart growth, why not all revenue is good revenue, and Australia's startup scene. They start by discussing when to turn down growth opportunities and which financial metrics are more distracting than helpful. Rob explains the challenges of holding people accountable when you are a growth CFO and how to be a Chief Reality Officer instead of a “CF-No”. He offers a view into the Australian startup ecosystem, highlighting what sets it apart, the challenges local founders face, and why global expansion from day one is a must. Rob also outlines his approach to forecasting and cost control, including how he applies the 80/20 rule to revenue, before sharing a wild fraud story from his auditing days.If you're looking for an ERP head to NetSuite: https://netsuite.com/metrics and get the CFO’s Guide to AI and Machine Learning.—SPONSORS:Vanta's trust management platform takes the manual work out of your security and compliance process and replaces it with continuous automation. Over 9000 businesses use it to automate compliance needs across over 35 frameworks like SOC 2 and ISO 27001. Centralize security workflows, complete questionnaires up to five times faster, and proactively manage vendor risk. For a limited time, get $1,000 off of Vanta at vanta.com/metrics.Tropic is an intelligent spend management solution that consolidates your spend data and processes into one unified offering, enabling insights and decisive action. From spotting hidden optimization opportunities to automating painful procurement workflows and giving you the best market data to turn vendor negotiations in your favor, Tropic combines smart insights with real human expertise to keep you ahead of the curve. Visit tropicapp.io/mostlymetrics to learn how.NetSuite provides financial software for all your business needs. More than 40,000 companies have already upgraded to NetSuite, gaining visibility and control over their financials, inventory, HR, eCommerce, and more. If you're looking for an ERP platform, head to NetSuite https://netsuite.com/metrics and get the CFO’s Guide to AI and Machine Learning.Planful is a financial performance management platform designed to streamline financial tasks for businesses. It helps with budgeting, closing the books, and financial reporting, all on a cloud-based platform. By improving the efficiency and accuracy of these processes, Planful allows businesses to make better financial decisions. Find out more at www.planful.com/metrics.Subscript is a modern billing and revenue recognition platform designed for SaaS finance teams that need flexibility and accuracy. From automated invoicing and dunning to compliant, transparent revenue recognition and real-time analytics, Subscript eliminates manual work, reduces errors, and gives you a single source of truth for all your financial data. Book a free demo at subscript.com.Rippling Spend is a spend management solution that handles your entire company’s spending in one unified system. It enables you to bring your corporate cards, expense management, bill pay, and more into one place to achieve real-time visibility and uniquely granular control with automated policy controls across every type of spend. Get a demo to see how much time your org would save at rippling.com/metrics.—FOLLOW US ON X:@cjgustafson222 (CJ)—TIMESTAMPS:(00:00) Preview and Intro(02:18) Sponsor – Vanta | Tropic | NetSuite(07:06) Not All Revenue Is Good Revenue(14:09) Metrics: Overrated and Underrated(16:14) Sponsor – Planful | Subscript | Rippling Spend(20:18) Lifetime Value (LTV)(20:11) Vertical and Horizontal P&L(21:27) Chief Reality Officer: Holding People Accountable(24:37) Staying Approachable as a CFO(26:04) The Australian Startup Ecosystem(27:28) What Sets Australian Startups Apart(29:39) Going Global on Day One(31:47) The Remote-First Superpower(32:52) Competitiveness and Tall Poppy Syndrome(35:24) Mastering the 80/20 Rule(39:17) Building Strong Management(41:32) Long-Ass Lightning Round: The Fraud Story(46:10) Finance Software Stack(47:06) Craziest Expense Story Get full access to Mostly metrics at www.mostlymetrics.com/subscribe

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  49:35
• Inside the "Triangle of Doom”: How Great CFOs Navigate CEO and Board Dynamics

  Rick Smith, multi-time CFO, founder of Bonfire Advisory, and author, joins CJ to discuss the complexities and nuances of the CFO role in venture-backed companies. They delve into the dynamics of the CEO-CFO relationship and examine the qualities CEOs think they want in a CFO versus what they need. Rick introduces the concept of “The triangle of doom” that exists between the CEO, the CFO, and the board, and how to navigate situations when forced to pick sides. Having been a CFO of five different organizations across industries and stages, Rick then explains how he categorizes company stages relating to CFO needs. As the founder of Bonfire Advisory, Rick talks about how founders can set themselves up for financial success before they need a full-time CFO and breaks down some of the most common mistakes early-stage companies make.If you're looking for an ERP head to NetSuite: https://netsuite.com/metrics and get the CFO’s Guide to AI and Machine Learning.—SPONSORS:Tropic is an intelligent spend management solution that consolidates your spend data and processes into one unified offering, enabling insights and decisive action. From spotting hidden optimization opportunities to automating painful procurement workflows and giving you the best market data to turn vendor negotiations in your favor, Tropic combines smart insights with real human expertise to keep you ahead of the curve. Visit tropicapp.io/mostlymetrics to learn how.NetSuite provides financial software for all your business needs. More than 40,000 companies have already upgraded to NetSuite, gaining visibility and control over their financials, inventory, HR, eCommerce, and more. If you're looking for an ERP platform ✅, head to NetSuite https://netsuite.com/metrics and get the CFO’s Guide to AI and Machine Learning.Planful is a financial performance management platform designed to streamline financial tasks for businesses. It helps with budgeting, closing the books, and financial reporting, all on a cloud-based platform. By improving the efficiency and accuracy of these processes, Planful allows businesses to make better financial decisions. Find out more at www.planful.com/metrics.Subscript is a modern billing and revenue recognition platform designed for SaaS finance teams that need flexibility and accuracy. From automated invoicing and dunning to compliant, transparent revenue recognition and real-time analytics, Subscript eliminates manual work, reduces errors, and gives you a single source of truth for all your financial data. Book a free demo at subscript.com.Rippling Spend is a spend management solution that handles your entire company’s spending in one unified system. It enables you to bring your corporate cards, expense management, bill pay, and more into one place to achieve real-time visibility and uniquely granular control with automated policy controls across every type of spend. Get a demo to see how much time your org would save at rippling.com/metrics.Vanta's trust management platform takes the manual work out of your security and compliance process and replaces it with continuous automation. Over 9000 businesses use it to automate compliance needs across over 35 frameworks like SOC 2 and ISO 27001. Centralize security workflows, complete questionnaires up to five times faster, and proactively manage vendor risk. For a limited time, get $1,000 off of Vanta at vanta.com/metrics.—FOLLOW US ON X:@cjgustafson222 (CJ)LINKS:Demystifying the Role of the CFO in Venture and Growth Stage Companies - https://www.amazon.com/Demystifying-Role-CFO-Venture-Companies/dp/B0DS9KF2C8Rick Smith on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/in/rick-smith-906939/—TIMESTAMPS:(00:00) Preview and Intro(02:13) Sponsor – Tropic | NetSuite | Planful(06:49) The Challenges of the CFO-CEO Relationship(12:59) What CEOs Think They Want in a CFO Versus What They Need(17:46) Sponsor – Subscript | Rippling Spend | Vanta(21:21) Hatred of Failure and Personal Accountability(24:38) Establishing Trust With a New CEO(28:21) Navigating Ethics When the CEO Is Dishonest(32:54) Picking Sides Between the Board & CEO(36:42) How To Exit When You Disagree With the CEO(38:19) Categorizing Company Stages(41:21) Why Early-Stage Companies Should Have Fractional CFOs(43:51) Common Mistakes for Early-Stage Companies(48:49) The Types of CFOs You Need at Different Stages(53:14) What Rick Likes About Working With Series A and B(54:54) Rick’s Book(57:15) Anecdotes From Rick’s Career(01:00:47) Long-Ass Lightning Round: Leases(01:04:49) Advice to Younger Self(01:05:38) Rick’s Recommended Tech Stack(01:08:54) Craziest Expense Story Get full access to Mostly metrics at www.mostlymetrics.com/subscribe

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  1:12:16
• How I Lost $209,640 (and Found My Own PMF)

  Welcome back to Run the Numbers. Now that I’m full time, I promised that I’d let you all in on the Business of Mostly Metrics. And chapter of that story is the my own failed startup - Bubba Booking.On this episode we’ll cover ten lessons I learned, how I lost over $200K, and what came of this face plant.Check out our sponsor Gelt, who makes this podcast possible.You can get 10% off year one - https://go.joingelt.com/mostlymetricsAt Gelt, they work with CFOs who aren’t just looking to stay compliant—they’re looking to unlock strategic value from their tax position. Think: optimized entity structures, real-time visibility across complex ownership, and proactive tax planning that actually moves the needle on cash flow.And here’s the thing: the tax landscape is changing fast—especially for high-growth businesses, alternative investors, and companies navigating multi-entity complexity. Whether it’s preparing for a capital event, evaluating compensation structures, or just avoiding costly surprises, your tax strategy should be as agile as the rest of your business.They give you quarterly strategy check-ins and proactive estimates designed to lower your effective tax rate, protect equity value, and drive long-term efficiency—all delivered through clear communication with your Gelt CPA and a powerful, modern platform.You can get 10% off year one - https://go.joingelt.com/mostlymetrics Get full access to Mostly metrics at www.mostlymetrics.com/subscribe

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  12:18
• “I Lost Money – It Was Beautiful” – Brad Channer on Why You Should Fail at a Startup at Least Twice

  In this episode, CJ Gustafson sits down with Brad Channer, the CFO of UBIO and possibly the world's most interesting CFO and accountant. He describes his unconventional career path from acting to accounting and the he lessons learned from some entrepreneurial failures along the way. Brad also discusses communication and leadership, including how his acting background shaped his style in the boardroom. He breaks down the biggest mistakes CFOs make when explaining financials and why some accountants struggle to reach the C-suite even if they’re brilliant on paper. He shares insights on neurodiversity in the workplace and how to unlock its advantages before unpacking why the UK has produced fewer tech giants than the US and the one regulatory shift that could potentially supercharge the industry.If you're looking for an ERP head to NetSuite: https://netsuite.com/metrics and get the CFO’s Guide to AI and Machine Learning.—SPONSORS:NetSuite provides financial software for all your business needs. More than 40,000 companies have already upgraded to NetSuite, gaining visibility and control over their financials, inventory, HR, eCommerce, and more. If you're looking for an ERP platform ✅, head to NetSuite https://netsuite.com/metrics and get the CFO’s Guide to AI and Machine Learning.Planful is a financial performance management platform designed to streamline financial tasks for businesses. It helps with budgeting, closing the books, and financial reporting, all on a cloud-based platform. By improving the efficiency and accuracy of these processes, Planful allows businesses to make better financial decisions. Find out more at www.planful.com/metrics.Subscript is a modern billing and revenue recognition platform designed for SaaS finance teams that need flexibility and accuracy. From automated invoicing and dunning to compliant, transparent revenue recognition and real-time analytics, Subscript eliminates manual work, reduces errors, and gives you a single source of truth for all your financial data. Book a free demo at subscript.com.Rippling Spend is a spend management solution that handles your entire company’s spending in one unified system. It enables you to bring your corporate cards, expense management, bill pay, and more into one place to achieve real-time visibility and uniquely granular control with automated policy controls across every type of spend. Get a demo to see how much time your org would save at rippling.com/metrics.Vanta's trust management platform takes the manual work out of your security and compliance process and replaces it with continuous automation. Over 9000 businesses use it to automate compliance needs across over 35 frameworks like SOC 2 and ISO 27001. Centralize security workflows, complete questionnaires up to five times faster, and proactively manage vendor risk. For a limited time, get $1,000 off of Vanta at vanta.com/metrics.Tropic is an intelligent spend management solution that consolidates your spend data and processes into one unified offering, enabling insights and decisive action. From spotting hidden optimization opportunities to automating painful procurement workflows and giving you the best market data to turn vendor negotiations in your favor, Tropic combines smart insights with real human expertise to keep you ahead of the curve. Visit tropicapp.io/mostlymetrics to learn how.—FOLLOW US ON X:@cjgustafson222 (CJ)—TIMESTAMPS:(00:00) Preview and Intro(02:32) Sponsor - NetSuite | Planful | Subscript(05:39) From Actor to Management Accountant(10:25) Brad’s Bold Move to the UK(13:02) His Journey into Entrepreneurship and Accounting(16:07) Sponsor - Rippling Spend | Vanta | Tropic(20:08) Reclaiming the F Word: Failure(23:37) Communicating Like a Human(25:42) Acting Lessons for Accountants(29:49) How to Understand Your Audience(35:36) Navigating Neurodiversity in Business(36:35) How to Adapt Your Communication for Founders(38:30) Why Some Accountants Don’t Make it to the C-Suite(40:38) Learning to Ask Questions(43:29) Leadership in Large Companies Versus SMEs or Scale-Ups(45:24) The UK Versus US Tech Scene(47:10) Tall Poppy Syndrome in the UK(51:38) Long-ass lightning round: Do Your Research(55:14) Advice to Younger Self(56:15) Finance Software Stack(56:58) Craziest Expense Story Get full access to Mostly metrics at www.mostlymetrics.com/subscribe

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  59:32

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