TikTok Will Beat Amazon, Google Is Going to Zero, and Other Wild Predictions With VC Turner Novak
Facebook is undermonetized, TikTok poses an existential threat to Amazon, and ChatGPT has probably already captured most of Google’s high-value users. These are the opinions of today's guest, a venture capitalist deeply embedded in consumer networks and social product investing. In this episode, CJ chats with Turner Novak, the Founder and Managing Partner of Banana Capital, host of The Peel podcast, and a man who is known for his Twitter threads and podcast interviews as much as he is for his impressive portfolio. Turner breaks down the monetization models of some of the world's biggest platforms. Together, they discuss undervalued and overvalued business models, the long-term viability of subscription models, how platforms can identify and serve their highest-value users, and how to adapt acquisition strategies as AI reshapes the customer journey. Turner also reveals what excites him for future investments and the underestimated power of memes as a marketing tool.—LINKS:Turner Novak on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/turnernovakTurner Novak on X (@TurnerNovak): https://x.com/TurnerNovakBanana Capital: https://www.bananacapital.vcThe Peel: https://www.youtube.com/@ThePeelPodthespl.it: CJ on X (@cjgustafson222): https://x.com/cjgustafson222Mostly metrics: —TIMESTAMPS:(00:00) Preview and Intro(02:09) Sponsor – Rillet | Pulley | Brex(06:15) Turner’s Embarrassing Accounting Story(08:10) How Turner Became an Accidental Influencer(09:02) Monetizing Content(12:22) How Turner Built His Media Platform(16:02) Sponsor – Aleph | RightRev | Navan(20:26) From Fantasy VC Portfolios to Podcasting(24:30) Turner’s Main Business: Media Versus VC(25:42) Monetizing Premium Experiences on Social Products(30:27) Finding and Targeting High-Value Customers(32:27) Memes as a Tool for Marketing(36:10) Identifying High-Value Users and Opportunities(41:00) Why Pinterest Is Undermonetized(42:57) TikTok Versus Amazon for E-Commerce(46:30) Is ChatGPT Coming for Facebook and Google’s Cash Flow(48:36) Facebook as an Undermonetized Business(54:24) The Long-Term Viability of Subscriptions(1:00:31) Customer Acquisition in a Platform-Dominated World(1:04:09) Paid Acquisition in the Era of AI(1:06:23) The Increasing Cost of CAC(1:08:59) What Turner Is Investing in Now(1:15:25) Doing Hard Things as a Moat(1:19:12) Wrap—SPONSORS:Rillet is the AI-native ERP modern finance teams are switching to because it’s faster, simpler, and 100% built for how teams operate today. See how fast your team can move. Book a demo at https://www.rillet.com/metrics.Pulley is the cap table management platform built for CFOs and finance leaders who need reliable, audit-ready data and intuitive workflows, without the hidden fees or unreliable support. Switch in as little as 5 days and get 25% off your first year: https://pulley.com/mostlymetrics.Brex offers the world's smartest corporate card on a full-stack global platform that is everything CFOs need to manage their finances on an elite level. Plus, they offer modern banking and treasury as well as intuitive expenses and accounting automation, bill pay, and travel. Find out more at https://www.brex.com/metricsAleph automates 90% of manual, error-prone busywork, so you can focus on the strategic work you were hired to do. Minimize busywork and maximize impact with the power of a web app, the flexibility of spreadsheets, and the magic of AI. Get a personalised demo at https://www.getaleph.com/runRightRev automates the revenue recognition process from end to end, gives you real-time insights, and ensures ASC 606 / IFRS 15 compliance—all while closing books faster. For RevRec that auditors actually trust, visit https://www.rightrev.com and schedule a demo.Navan is the all-in-one travel and expense solution that can give you access to exclusive, proprietary Nasdaq-validated data that reveals what's happening with corporate travel investments. See the Navan Business Travel Index at https://navan.com/bti.#VentureCapital #BusinessModels #GoogleVsChatGPT #ConsumerNetworks #SocialCommerce This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.mostlymetrics.com
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