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Run the Numbers

CJ Gustafson
Run the Numbers
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  • Do vanity plates bring serious business? | Mostly Growth
    In this Thanksgiving-week Mostly Growth episode, CJ Gustafson and Kyle Poyar ditch the serious finance talk for a looser, drinks-in-hand conversation with Ben Hillman, bouncing between CJ’s nostalgic emo-punk concert adventure, the curse of vanity license plates, and the epidemic of “Y-axis crimes” in founder charts. They riff on Spotify Wrapped copycats, YouTube becoming living-room TV, kids’ YouTube empires, and the game theory behind The Traitors and the Monty Hall problem before shifting into real-world pricing: newsletter perk economics, the pitfalls of hourly consulting, and why value-based packaging always wins. The episode stays playful but still sneaks in sharp insights on growth, psychology, and how weird the business world can be when you actually pay attention.—SPONSORS:Pulley is the cap table management platform built for CFOs and finance leaders who need reliable, audit-ready data and intuitive workflows, without the hidden fees or unreliable support. Switch in as little as 5 days and get 25% off your first year: https://pulley.com/mostlymetricsMetronome is real-time billing built for modern software companies. Metronome turns raw usage events into accurate invoices, gives customers bills they actually understand, and keeps finance, product, and engineering perfectly in sync. That’s why category-defining companies like OpenAI and Anthropic trust Metronome to power usage-based pricing and enterprise contracts at scale. Focus on your product — not your billing. Learn more and get started at https://www.metronome.com—LINKS:Mostly Metrics: https://www.mostlymetrics.comCJ on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/cj-gustafson-13140948/Growth Unhinged: https://www.growthunhinged.com/Kyle on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/kyle-poyar/Brian Balfour: brianbalfour.comBrian on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/bbalfour/Slacker Stuff: https://www.slackerstuff.com/Ben on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/slackerstuff/https://x.com/parikpatelcfa/status/1992706757073023191?s=46https://www.wired.com/story/null-license-plate-landed-one-hacker-ticket-hell/https://x.com/im_roy_lee/status/1992692253257855261/photo/1https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2025/01/16/the-traitors-a-reality-tv-show-offers-a-useful-economics-lessonhttps://www.cdccard.com/https://nyulangone.org/news/one-third-americans-are-trying-avoid-gluten-it-villain-we-think-it-ishttps://x.com/techsalesguy3/status/1991585201601016161?s=46https://www.fletchpmm.com/https://paintvine.co.nz/blogs/news/the-legend-of-picassos-napkin-sketch?srsltid=AfmBOooiyTYGfUdKJZLpblbQAcJzQLg011Os_xeyaCgSpEIXrtIuD6hHhttps://cityfeedandsupply.com/https://www.linkedin.com/posts/cj-gustafson-13140948_started-from-the-email-now-were-here-activity-7397607230600126465-iVPv/https://cooking.nytimes.com/recipes/1018731-buttermilk-brined-roast-chickenhttps://cooking.nytimes.com/recipes/1026610-porcini-ragu—RELATED EPISODES:Is a weekly martini ARR? | with Dave Kellogghttps://youtu.be/Yb1lUQLJ6qw—TIMESTAMPS:00:00:00 Special Message00:00:35 Preview and Intro00:01:41 Sponsors – Pulley & Metronome00:04:01 Mostly Drinks Episode00:05:14 Concert Stories & Pop-Punk Nostalgia00:08:05 Concert Parenting & Full-Circle Moment00:08:36 Business Blunders Begin00:10:26 License Plate Fails & Accounting Humor00:12:08 Y-Axis Crime Chart Review00:14:21 Global Podcast “Success” & Listener Jokes00:16:00 Spotify Wrapped: Retention vs. Acquisition00:17:04 YouTube as the Future of Podcasts00:17:56 Kids’ Shows, Blippi & Creator Economics00:18:55 The Traitors Show Overview00:20:30 Game Theory & Winning as a Traitor00:22:46 Monty Hall Problem Setup00:24:27 Game Show Logic & Gambler’s Fallacies00:26:09 Pricing in the Real World00:27:03 Community Discount Card Business Model00:29:09 Newsletter Perks & Subscriber Value00:30:34 Marketplace Discount Math00:32:01 Negotiating Like a CFO00:33:00 Gluten-Free Nights & Pricing Strategy00:35:24 Outbound Pizza as a Go-to-Market Play00:37:03 Outbound Pizza Tuesdays to Gluten-Free Tuesdays00:37:37 Pricing Services: Value vs. Hourly00:40:47 The Picasso Pricing Story00:42:55 Harvard Business School Case Study & Kim K Photo00:44:02 Thanksgiving Cooking: Roast Chicken & Porcini Ragu00:44:56 Wrap & Credits#MostlyGrowthPodcast #SaaSOperators #BusinessStrategyPod #CreatorEconomyTalks #FinanceNerds This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit cjgustafson.substack.com
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  • Chirag Shah on Scaling From $30M to $1B and Prepping Companies for IPOs | Mostly Classics
    How do you know when a company is ready to go public? And what do you do to prepare for this? Chirag Shah, CFO of Motive and former CFO of Kong and Cornerstone OnDemand, joins CJ to share insights from his experience of scaling businesses from $30 million to nearly $1 billion and tripling ARR. He talks about taking companies public and how he helped take one private again in a $5.2 billion deal. In this episode, he explains what signals indicate that a company is ready to accelerate its growth, the art and science of building sales capacity, and how to balance efficiency and growth in hypergrowth mode. He also covers how to achieve a great valuation without a strong performance, the biggest headache on the road to IPO, and whether you should IPO in the first place or remain private.—SPONSORS:Mercury is business banking built for builders, giving founders and finance pros a financial stack that actually works together. From sending wires to tracking balances and approving payments, Mercury makes it simple to scale without friction. Join the 200,000+ entrepreneurs who trust Mercury and apply online in minutes at https://www.mercury.comRightRev automates the revenue recognition process from end to end, gives you real-time insights, and ensures ASC 606 / IFRS 15 compliance—all while closing books faster. For RevRec that auditors actually trust, visit https://www.rightrev.com and schedule a demo.Tipalti automates the entire payables process—from onboarding suppliers to executing global payouts—helping finance teams save time, eliminate costly errors, and scale confidently across 200+ countries and 120 currencies. More than 5,000 businesses already trust Tipalti to manage payments with built-in security and tax compliance. Visit https://www.tipalti.com/runthenumbers to learn more.Aleph automates 90% of manual, error-prone busywork, so you can focus on the strategic work you were hired to do. Minimize busywork and maximize impact with the power of a web app, the flexibility of spreadsheets, and the magic of AI. Get a personalised demo at https://www.getaleph.com/runFidelity Private Shares is the all-in-one equity management platform that keeps your cap table clean, your data room organized, and your equity story clear—so you never risk losing a fundraising round over messy records. Schedule a demo at https://www.fidelityprivateshares.com and mention Mostly Metrics to get 20% off.Metronome is real-time billing built for modern software companies. Metronome turns raw usage events into accurate invoices, gives customers bills they actually understand, and keeps finance, product, and engineering perfectly in sync. That’s why category-defining companies like OpenAI and Anthropic trust Metronome to power usage-based pricing and enterprise contracts at scale. Focus on your product — not your billing. Learn more and get started at https://www.metronome.com—Chirag Shah on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/chirag-shah-787b1b20/Motive: https://gomotive.com/CJ on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/cj-gustafson-13140948/Mostly metrics: https://www.mostlymetrics.com—RELATED EPISODES:From $30M to Almost $1B: A Guide to Hypergrowth, IPO Prep, and Navigating the Public Markethttps://youtu.be/_pJfdN5p-ik—TIMESTAMPS:00:00:00 Preview and Intro00:02:57 Sponsors – Mercury | RightRev | Tipalti00:06:49 Motiv CFO Intro & Company Background00:07:01 Product Market Fit as a CFO00:09:26 Lessons From Taking Companies Public00:11:04 Preparing for Life as a Public Company00:11:26 Moving From Finance Into a GM Role00:12:50 Learning the Business Beyond Finance00:14:23 Empathy for Sales & Carrying a Quota00:15:51 Sponsors – Aleph | Fidelity Private Shares | Metronome00:19:03 Asking Better Questions After Operating Experience00:21:23 Knowing When to Accelerate Growth00:23:16 High-ROI Capacity Signals00:24:51 Scaling Requires Supporting Functions00:26:19 The Art + Science of Adding Reps00:27:53 Sales Team Buy-In Before Scaling00:29:15 Reading Product-Market Fit Through Sales00:30:08 Where Scaling Breaks First (Enablement)00:31:36 Importance of SE / SC Ratios00:33:13 Timing Supporting Hires00:34:32 Maintaining Momentum While Scaling00:36:33 Longest Pole in IPO Prep: Predictability00:38:47 Building Confidence Through Consistency00:40:45 Large Deals Swing Small Companies00:42:41 Growth Still Drives Quarterly Volatility00:44:43 Investor Education as a Core IPO Task00:46:00 Harder to Make Big Changes Publicly00:47:39 Managing Morale in Volatile Markets00:48:33 Taking Cornerstone Private00:52:32 Advice: Know Why You Want to Go Public00:56:18 Efficiency Without Sacrificing Growth01:00:58 Operating Roles Prepared Him for CFO01:06:23 Finance Software Stack Overview#RunTheNumbersPodcast #Hypergrowth #IPOreadiness #CFOInsights #MostlyClassics This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit cjgustafson.substack.com
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  • From SMB to Enterprise: The CFO Scaling Playbook With Andrew Casey | Mostly Classics
    Serving SMB mid-market customers is one thing, but when you go upstream to enterprise sales, everything changes: go-to-market strategy, the sales process, how you structure deals, even how you define customer value. Today’s guest, Andrew Casey, has helped scale four SaaS companies: ServiceNow, WalkMe, Lacework, and his current company, Amplitude. At ServiceNow, he worked closely with Snowflake’s Mike Scarpelli and Coatue’s David Schneider, and he was instrumental in establishing the company’s deal desk to support its sales motion. As an operationally focused CFO, he shares a wealth of knowledge on the importance of staying close to the customer, structuring deals that work for both sides, establishing transparency in usage-based pricing, aligning incentives and strategy in sales, the pros and cons of multi-year deals, the problem with auto-renewals and what to do instead, and how to adapt your go-to-market strategy when moving from SMB mid-market to enterprise.—SPONSORS:Metronome is real-time billing built for modern software companies. Metronome turns raw usage events into accurate invoices, gives customers bills they actually understand, and keeps finance, product, and engineering perfectly in sync. That’s why category-defining companies like OpenAI and Anthropic trust Metronome to power usage-based pricing and enterprise contracts at scale. Focus on your product — not your billing. Learn more and get started at https://www.metronome.comMercury is business banking built for builders, giving founders and finance pros a financial stack that actually works together. From sending wires to tracking balances and approving payments, Mercury makes it simple to scale without friction. Join the 200,000+ entrepreneurs who trust Mercury and apply online in minutes at https://www.mercury.comRightRev automates the revenue recognition process from end to end, gives you real-time insights, and ensures ASC 606 / IFRS 15 compliance—all while closing books faster. For RevRec that auditors actually trust, visit https://www.rightrev.com and schedule a demo.Tipalti automates the entire payables process—from onboarding suppliers to executing global payouts—helping finance teams save time, eliminate costly errors, and scale confidently across 200+ countries and 120 currencies. More than 5,000 businesses already trust Tipalti to manage payments with built-in security and tax compliance. Visit https://www.tipalti.com/runthenumbers to learn more.Aleph automates 90% of manual, error-prone busywork, so you can focus on the strategic work you were hired to do. Minimize busywork and maximize impact with the power of a web app, the flexibility of spreadsheets, and the magic of AI. Get a personalised demo at https://www.getaleph.com/runFidelity Private Shares is the all-in-one equity management platform that keeps your cap table clean, your data room organized, and your equity story clear—so you never risk losing a fundraising round over messy records. Schedule a demo at https://www.fidelityprivateshares.com and mention Mostly Metrics to get 20% off.—Andrew Casey on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/andrew-casey-6b14875/Amplitude: https://amplitude.comCJ on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/cj-gustafson-13140948/Mostly metrics: https://www.mostlymetrics.com—RELATED EPISODES:An Operationally-Focused CFO’s Guide to Scaling From SMB to Enterprise: Lessons From ServiceNowhttps://youtu.be/iUpMAQ14YpM—TIMESTAMPS:00:00:00 Preview and Intro00:03:27 Sponsors – Metronome, Mercury, RightRev00:07:08 Andrew joins the podcast00:08:10 Becoming an operational CFO00:09:25 Early customer-empathy beginnings at Sun00:11:34 How customer-empathy shaped Andrew’s career00:14:08 Navigating HP’s troubled EDS contracts00:16:05 Sponsors – Tipalti, Aleph, Fidelity Private Shares00:19:37 Returning from ads – running toward hard markets00:20:13 Scaling ServiceNow’s sales operations00:23:27 Breaking into the trusted circle after the Q1 miss00:25:26 Building and scaling the ServiceNow deal desk00:28:11 Principles of transparent, value-aligned pricing00:30:17 Rethinking metering models and usage alignment00:33:01 Diagnosing budget constraints vs. cash timing00:36:14 Incentives, comp plans, and high-trust selling00:39:21 Training enterprise reps for long-term value00:40:17 Multi-year deals and when they actually work00:43:05 Overselling, discount levers, and ZIRP contract bloat00:45:58 How enterprise scale transforms go-to-market00:51:03 Pipeline coverage and maturity modeling00:54:02 Not all pipeline dollars are created equal00:57:05 Career-risk mindset in enterprise selling01:00:02 Defining enterprise and moving upmarket01:01:00 A business-first approach to the CFO role01:03:10 Getting hired at ServiceNow01:06:37 Building GTM finance, deal desk, and a 400-person org01:08:00 Lightning round – biggest mistakes and IR lesson01:11:10 Advice to his younger self and leading through change01:13:34 Defining customers, ARR accuracy, and hierarchy pitfalls01:15:12 The wildest expense attempt ever submitted#RunTheNumbersPodcast #SaaSFinance #EnterpriseSelling #GTMStrategy #CFOInsights This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit cjgustafson.substack.com
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  • Running the Product-Market Fit Treadmill with Brian Balfour | Mostly Growth
    Brian Balfour, Founder & CEO of Reforge and former VP of Growth at HubSpot, joins Mostly Growth to explore why product-market fit is a moving target. He introduces the concept of the Product-Market Fit Treadmill, a state where rising customer expectations and competitive pressure make it harder than ever to stay ahead. Brian breaks down how AI has accelerated PMF collapse, explains the hidden costs of product adoption, and shares how Reforge shipped five AI-native products with a team of just 20 people. Packed with frameworks, strategic insight, and startup realism, this episode is essential listening for product leaders, operators, and founders navigating the next wave of GTM.—SPONSORS:Pulley is the cap table management platform built for CFOs and finance leaders who need reliable, audit-ready data and intuitive workflows, without the hidden fees or unreliable support. Switch in as little as 5 days and get 25% off your first year: https://pulley.com/mostlymetricsMetronome is real-time billing built for modern software companies. Metronome turns raw usage events into accurate invoices, gives customers bills they actually understand, and keeps finance, product, and engineering perfectly in sync. That’s why category-defining companies like OpenAI and Anthropic trust Metronome to power usage-based pricing and enterprise contracts at scale. Focus on your product — not your billing. Learn more and get started at https://www.metronome.com—LINKS:Mostly Metrics: https://www.mostlymetrics.comCJ on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/cj-gustafson-13140948/Growth Unhinged: https://www.growthunhinged.com/Kyle on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/kyle-poyar/Brian Balfour: brianbalfour.comBrian on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/bbalfour/Slacker Stuff: https://www.slackerstuff.com/Ben on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/slackerstuff/https://brianbalfour.com/four-fits-growth-frameworkhttps://x.com/amasad/status/1981201454032703662?s=46https://getlatka.com/companies/firefliesaihttps://x.com/rowancheung/status/1988218743952916537?https://gamma.app/insights/how-we-built-a-usd100m-business-differently—RELATED EPISODES:When the marketing math doesn’t math | with Emily Kramerhttps://youtu.be/sSuoV_YSrlwWhy Founders Are Posting Sad Dinnershttps://youtu.be/Zl6NSIHF2Gk—TIMESTAMPS:00:00:00 Preview and Intro00:01:51 Sponsors – Pulley, Metronome00:04:11 Introducing Brian Balfour & Reforge background00:07:22 Evergreen frameworks & Four Fits resurgence00:11:01 PMF treadmill and rising expectations00:14:26 AI shocks and PMF collapse (Chegg)00:16:43 CRM expectations & AI-native workflows00:20:44 R&D as ongoing cost to serve00:22:26 Customers buying based on future product velocity00:24:32 Communicating rapid releases & driving adoption00:25:17 Reforge’s expanding AI product suite00:27:52 Product delivery vs. product adoption bottlenecks00:29:32 Platform distribution shifts introduction00:30:51 Evaluating emerging platforms00:32:04 The open → close platform cycle00:33:31 Moats, escape velocity & platform dominance00:36:32 Choosing major vs. emerging platforms00:40:22 ChatGPT dominance in AI discovery00:42:16 Hiring, resumes & filtering AI-generated applications00:43:30 AI note-taking market & “Flintstoning”00:47:03 Trying Gamma & AI-generated presentation tools00:50:08 AI onboarding innovations (WhatsApp agent)#MostlyGrowthPodcast #ProductMarketFit #BrianBalfour #StartupStrategy #Reforge This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit cjgustafson.substack.com
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  • Mercury, Snowflake, and Boulder Care Finance Pros Weigh In | Campfire Roundup
    In this special episode of Run the Numbers, CJ Gustafson records live from Campfire’s AI Finance Forward conference in San Francisco, serving up a trio of rapid-fire interviews with top-tier finance leaders. First, Daniel Kang, CFO of Mercury, breaks down the quality of fintech revenue streams, the mechanics of float in a falling rate environment, and what investors really value. Then, Brad Floering, SVP of Finance at Snowflake, shares war stories on usage-based pricing, forecasting consumption, and the role of AI in modern FP&A. Finally, Mitzi Yue of Boulder Care brings a mission-driven perspective, reflecting on dual roles in finance and culture, career product-market fit, and the ethical frontier of AI in healthcare. It’s a fast, thoughtful taste of where modern finance is headed.—LINKS:Daniel Kang on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/dmkang/Mercury: https://mercury.com/Brad Floering on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/brad-floering/Snowflake: https://www.snowflake.com/Mitzi Yue on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/mitziyue/Boulder Care: https://www.boulder.care/CJ on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/cj-gustafson-13140948/Mostly metrics: https://www.mostlymetrics.com—RELATED EPISODES:Grindr’s $0 CAC Secret from the CFO Who Launched Disney+ | Vanna Krantzhttps://youtu.be/ijFIMmtpLNw—TIMESTAMPS:00:00:00 Preview and Intro00:04:03 Sponsors – Fidelity Private Shares, Metronome, Mercury00:06:49 Guest – Daniel Kang (Mercury) joins00:07:55 Lessons from being first finance hire00:10:49 Finance collaborating on product decisions00:13:12 Comparing customer segments and revenue models00:16:58 Sponsors – Right Rev, Tipalti, Aleph00:21:11 Market shift for consumer fintech models00:23:14 Balancing gross profit with product growth00:24:41 Misconceptions about fintech revenue00:26:57 Guest – Brad Floering (Snowflake) joins00:30:22 Aligning pricing with cloud resource consumption00:33:17 Forecasting challenges with usage-based revenue00:35:06 Complexity of sales commissions under consumption model00:38:23 Lessons from AWS: committing for discounts00:41:16 Cold start forecasting challenges and the role of employee size00:44:01 Customer behavior and rollover credit challenges00:47:08 Using professional services to recover unused credits00:49:05 Seasonality and forecasting challenges in Q400:54:16 Guest – Mitzi Yue (Boulder Care) joins00:57:05 The pandemic’s impact on telemedicine adoption01:00:33 Finance decisions with human consequences in healthcare01:02:26 Finding personal product-market fit in Series B/C stage01:03:33 Finance as the central nervous system of the company01:07:10 Nonprofits inspired by personal values and experience01:10:52 Exploring AI’s potential in healthcare and finance—SPONSORS:Fidelity Private Shares is the all-in-one equity management platform that keeps your cap table clean, your data room organized, and your equity story clear—so you never risk losing a fundraising round over messy records. Schedule a demo at https://www.fidelityprivateshares.com and mention Mostly Metrics to get 20% off.Metronome is real-time billing built for modern software companies. Metronome turns raw usage events into accurate invoices, gives customers bills they actually understand, and keeps finance, product, and engineering perfectly in sync. That’s why category-defining companies like OpenAI and Anthropic trust Metronome to power usage-based pricing and enterprise contracts at scale. Focus on your product — not your billing. Learn more and get started at https://www.metronome.comMercury is business banking built for builders, giving founders and finance pros a financial stack that actually works together. From sending wires to tracking balances and approving payments, Mercury makes it simple to scale without friction. Join the 200,000+ entrepreneurs who trust Mercury and apply online in minutes at https://www.mercury.comRightRev automates the revenue recognition process from end to end, gives you real-time insights, and ensures ASC 606 / IFRS 15 compliance—all while closing books faster. For RevRec that auditors actually trust, visit https://www.rightrev.com and schedule a demo.Tipalti automates the entire payables process—from onboarding suppliers to executing global payouts—helping finance teams save time, eliminate costly errors, and scale confidently across 200+ countries and 120 currencies. More than 5,000 businesses already trust Tipalti to manage payments with built-in security and tax compliance. Visit https://www.tipalti.com/runthenumbers to learn more.Aleph automates 90% of manual, error-prone busywork, so you can focus on the strategic work you were hired to do. Minimize busywork and maximize impact with the power of a web app, the flexibility of spreadsheets, and the magic of AI. Get a personalised demo at https://www.getaleph.com/run—#RunTheNumbersPodcast #FintechStrategy #UsageBasedPricing #HealthcareFinance #AIinFinance This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit cjgustafson.substack.com
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About Run the Numbers

Run the Numbers is a twice-weekly podcast about financial metrics and business models, designed for ambitious people operating tech startups. It's a collection of things host CJ Gustafson (CFO at Partstech and writer of Mostly Metrics) has learned and thought about in the trenches as a tech CFO. This show is meant to serve as a playbook of sorts for the stuff CJ wishes he knew earlier in his career, both from experience and from copying people smarter than himself. Topics frequently touch upon Startup SaaS Metrics, Annual Budgeting, Financial Forecasting, Headcount, Equity, Dilution, and Fundraising – and how all of these drive business performance and growth. cjgustafson.substack.com
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