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Run the Numbers

CJ Gustafson
Run the Numbers
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  • Fire bad customers save great ones | Cassie Young
    Cassie Young brings hard earned lessons from a career spanning CRO roles, customer success leadership, turnarounds, and now investing as a General Partner at Primary Venture Partners. She talks about building and rebuilding go to market teams, why sometimes you should fire customers on purpose, and how churn is a lagging indicator that hides deeper retention issues. Cassie shares strong views on overrated metrics like NPS, the incentives that actually drive behavior inside a business, and the myth of finding one perfect KPI. She also brings signature Cassie isms like sunlight is the best disinfectant and the reminder that leaders often get stuck working in the business instead of on it offering practical insights for anyone trying to keep their SaaS metrics from going sideways.—SPONSORS:Aleph automates 90% of manual, error-prone busywork, so you can focus on the strategic work you were hired to do. Minimize busywork and maximize impact with the power of a web app, the flexibility of spreadsheets, and the magic of AI. Get a personalised demo at https://www.getaleph.com/runFidelity Private Shares is the all-in-one equity management platform that keeps your cap table clean, your data room organized, and your equity story clear—so you never risk losing a fundraising round over messy records. Schedule a demo at https://www.fidelityprivateshares.com and mention Mostly Metrics to get 20% off.Sage Intacct is the cloud financial management platform that replaces spreadsheets, eliminates manual work, and keeps your books audit-ready—so you can scale without slowing down. It combines accounting, ERP, and real-time reporting for retail, financial services, logistics, tech, professional services, and more. Sage Intacct delivers fast ROI, with payback in under six months and up to 250% return. Rated #1 in customer satisfaction for eight straight years. Visit Sage Intacct and take control of your growth: https://bit.ly/3Kn4YHtMercury is business banking built for builders, giving founders and finance pros a financial stack that actually works together. From sending wires to tracking balances and approving payments, Mercury makes it simple to scale without friction. Join the 200,000+ entrepreneurs who trust Mercury and apply online in minutes at https://www.mercury.comRightRev automates the revenue recognition process from end to end, gives you real-time insights, and ensures ASC 606 / IFRS 15 compliance—all while closing books faster. For RevRec that auditors actually trust, visit https://www.rightrev.com and schedule a demo.Tipalti automates the entire payables process—from onboarding suppliers to executing global payouts—helping finance teams save time, eliminate costly errors, and scale confidently across 200+ countries and 120 currencies. More than 5,000 businesses already trust Tipalti to manage payments with built-in security and tax compliance. Visit https://www.tipalti.com/runthenumbers to learn more.—LINKS:Cassie on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/cassyoung/Primary Venture Partners: https://www.primary.vc/CJ on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/cj-gustafson-13140948/Mostly metrics: https://www.mostlymetrics.com—RELATED EPISODES:Getting fired 4 times made me a founder | Sam Jacobs of Pavilionhttps://youtu.be/8X-JVOF-1A0—TIMESTAMPS:00:00:00 Preview and Intro00:02:30 Sponsors Aleph | Fidelity Private Shares | Sage Intacct00:05:21 Returning From Pavilion & GTM Summit Takeaways00:06:49 What Makes a Great Executive00:11:07 The Importance of True P&L Fluency00:12:17 First Team Leadership vs Functional Loyalty00:13:33 Reading the Macro Environment and Market Forces00:14:29 Sponsors Mercury | RightRev | Tipalti00:18:26 Applying First Team Leadership in Practice00:22:24 Churn as a Lagging Indicator00:24:23 Finding Real Leading Indicators of Renewal00:25:30 Customer Value as the Only Path to Enterprise Value00:26:52 Product Adoption Perception and Retention00:29:16 Price to Value Ratio as a Predictor of Guaranteed Churn00:30:37 The Ultimate Question What Gets Your Customer Promoted00:32:33 How NPS Is Actually Calculated00:34:56 Sailthru’s Minus 26 NPS and What It Signaled00:37:31 Rebuilding Customer Trust Through Transparency00:40:24 Why Net and Gross Retention Must Be Paired00:42:51 Aligning the Executive Team Through a Unified Bonus Plan00:45:18 Firing Customers When Misaligned Segments Drain the Org00:49:35 Carrot vs Stick How to Motivate a Modern GTM Org00:52:31 Why MBO Plans Fail CSMs01:03:51 Why Time to Value Matters More Than Ever#RunTheNumbersPodcast #CustomerSuccess #ChurnPrevention #GoToMarket #VentureCapital This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit cjgustafson.substack.com
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  • From Birding Apps to Billion-Dollar Bundles | Mostly Growth
    Mostly Growth on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@MostlyGrowthMostly Growth on Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/mostly-growth/id1842238102Mostly Growth on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/3KDtaLaXx1obFp5PUhZ6V3In this episode of Mostly Growth, CJ Gustafson and Kyle Poyar bounce between sharp SaaS insights and delightfully weird internet culture. They start with an unexpected dive into competitive bird-watching apps, then break down recent software mergers like Superhuman + Grammarly + Coda and what they signal about scaling, cross-sell strategy, and private equity mechanics. CJ and Kyle explore why PE portfolios are becoming powerful distribution channels for AI solutions, how niche data “signals” are outpacing generic ones in sales, and share hedge-fund-style tactics for uncovering proprietary business information. The conversation rounds out with “business blunders” — from Y-axis chart crimes to clickbait headlines — and a lively discussion on Spotify’s pricing power and how companies should (and absolutely should not) communicate price increases.—SPONSORS:Pulley is the cap table management platform built for CFOs and finance leaders who need reliable, audit-ready data and intuitive workflows, without the hidden fees or unreliable support. Switch in as little as 5 days and get 25% off your first year: https://pulley.com/mostlymetricsMetronome is real-time billing built for modern software companies. Metronome turns raw usage events into accurate invoices, gives customers bills they actually understand, and keeps finance, product, and engineering perfectly in sync. That’s why category-defining companies like OpenAI and Anthropic trust Metronome to power usage-based pricing and enterprise contracts at scale. Focus on your product — not your billing. Learn more and get started at https://www.metronome.com—LINKS:Mostly Metrics: https://www.mostlymetrics.comCJ on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/cj-gustafson-13140948/Growth Unhinged: https://www.growthunhinged.com/Kyle on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/kyle-poyar/Slacker Stuff: https://www.slackerstuff.com/Ben on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/slackerstuff/—RELATED EPISODES:The Layer-Cake Playbook for Vertical SaaS Growth | with Roland Ligtenberghttps://youtu.be/yPxWvhPISKo—TIMESTAMPS:00:00:00 Preview and Intro00:01:43 Sponsors – Pulley and Metronome00:04:05 Birding, Big Year & AI Bird Apps00:06:42 Software M&A Trends in SaaS00:08:57 Superhuman–Grammarly–Coda Reverse Merger00:10:34 How Larger Valuations Attract a New Investor Class00:11:55 Streaming Wars & Platform Consolidation00:13:20 Private Equity as a Distribution Channel for AI00:14:48 How PE Firms Drive Multi-Company Expansion00:15:56 AI for Efficiency: The PE CFO Playbook00:17:44 When AI ROI Really Matters in PE00:19:23 Signal-Based Selling: High-Intent Buyer Detection00:21:15 Signal Fatigue & the Hunt for Better Data00:22:50 Why Proprietary Signals Win00:24:05 Creative (and Creepy) Data Tactics00:26:09 Pinterest vs. Google: Aspirational vs. Actual Behavior00:27:17 Blurring Work & Personal Signals in AI Tools00:27:46 The Michael Jordan of Y-Axis Crimes00:30:33 Notion Agents Billboard: “Let Them Cook”00:32:31 Pricing in the Real World: Spotify00:34:60 → 00:35:00 How to Communicate a Price Increase00:35:40 Closing Credits#MostlyGrowthPodcast #PricingStrategy #AIGrowth #GoToMarket #PrivateEquity This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit cjgustafson.substack.com
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  • $1B AI Finance: How CoreWeave’s CFO Built a Rocket Ship | Nitin Agrawal
    CoreWeave CFO Nitin Agrawal joins Run the Numbers to unpack the finance engine behind one of the fastest-growing AI infrastructure companies on the planet. CJ and Nitin dive into what it takes to build financial discipline in an environment where business models are being invented in real time, discussing the company’s 700% growth last year and massive first-quarter performance as a newly public company. They cover capex strategy, securitizing GPUs, managing billion-dollar revenue backlogs, and structuring incentives for hyperscale deals, all while keeping investors grounded and servers running at full tilt. If you want a front-row seat to finance in the AI arms race, this episode delivers.—SPONSORS:Tipalti automates the entire payables process—from onboarding suppliers to executing global payouts—helping finance teams save time, eliminate costly errors, and scale confidently across 200+ countries and 120 currencies. More than 5,000 businesses already trust Tipalti to manage payments with built-in security and tax compliance. Visit https://www.tipalti.com/runthenumbers to learn more.Aleph automates 90% of manual, error-prone busywork, so you can focus on the strategic work you were hired to do. Minimize busywork and maximize impact with the power of a web app, the flexibility of spreadsheets, and the magic of AI. Get a personalised demo at https://www.getaleph.com/runFidelity Private Shares is the all-in-one equity management platform that keeps your cap table clean, your data room organized, and your equity story clear—so you never risk losing a fundraising round over messy records. Schedule a demo at https://www.fidelityprivateshares.com and mention Mostly Metrics to get 20% off.Sage Intacct is the cloud financial management platform that replaces spreadsheets, eliminates manual work, and keeps your books audit-ready—so you can scale without slowing down. It combines accounting, ERP, and real-time reporting for retail, financial services, logistics, tech, professional services, and more. Sage Intacct delivers fast ROI, with payback in under six months and up to 250% return. Rated #1 in customer satisfaction for eight straight years. Visit Sage Intacct and take control of your growth: https://bit.ly/3Kn4YHtMercury is business banking built for builders, giving founders and finance pros a financial stack that actually works together. From sending wires to tracking balances and approving payments, Mercury makes it simple to scale without friction. Join the 200,000+ entrepreneurs who trust Mercury and apply online in minutes at https://www.mercury.comRightRev automates the revenue recognition process from end to end, gives you real-time insights, and ensures ASC 606 / IFRS 15 compliance—all while closing books faster. For RevRec that auditors actually trust, visit https://www.rightrev.com and schedule a demo.—LINKS:Nitin on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/nitin-agrawal-cloudcfo/Company: https://www.coreweave.com/CJ on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/cj-gustafson-13140948/Mostly metrics: https://www.mostlymetrics.com—RELATED EPISODES:The Art and Science of a Day-One IPO Pop with OneStream Software CFO Bill Koefoedhttps://youtu.be/kYCn7XNkCBcFrom Facebook’s Hypergrowth to Daffy’s Disruption: A CFO’s Playbook for Saying Yeshttps://youtu.be/bRIZ6oNPGD0—TIMESTAMPS:00:00:00 Preview and Intro00:02:54 Sponsors – Tipalti | Aleph | Fidelity Private Shares00:06:12 Interview Begins: Scaling CoreWeave00:06:52 CoreWeave’s Pivot From Crypto to AI00:11:41 Why CoreWeave Is Uniquely Positioned to Lead AI Infrastructure00:13:32 Hiring for Both Scrappiness and Scale00:16:01 Post-IPO Whirlwind: Acquisitions, Debt Raises, and 10-Year Deals00:16:43 Sponsors – Sage Intacct | Mercury | RightRev00:20:13 Managing Investor Expectations With Radical Transparency00:22:39 Doubling Active Power in Six Months00:25:19 Risk-Balanced Capital Deployment: Power First, GPUs Second00:27:12 Financing GPUs With Delayed-Draw Facilities00:29:38 CoreWeave Rated Platinum for GPU Cluster Performance00:32:25 Compute as the Bottleneck for AI Growth00:33:47 Explaining Revenue Backlog Shape & Timing00:35:06 The Strength of Reserved Instance Contracts00:36:07 Giving Tight but Honest Guidance00:40:26 How Mega-Deals Require C-Suite Participation00:42:19 Tackling Revenue Concentration Through Diversification00:44:05 Building an AI-Only Cloud, Not a General-Purpose Cloud00:46:27 Capital Markets Muscle: Raising Billions at Speed00:47:47 Accounting Complexity in a Business With No Precedent00:49:33 Even the CFO Must Unlearn Old Cloud Assumptions00:51:29 Scaling Public-Company Processes in 90-Day Cycles00:54:42 The Couch Fire vs. House Fire Framework00:57:17 Balancing Risk Mitigation With Opportunity Seeking01:00:30 No Downtime for ERP Changes During Hypergrowth01:02:33 Why the Team Stays Energized Despite the Chaos#RunTheNumbersPodcast #CFOInsights #Hypergrowth #AIInfrastructure #FinanceStrategy This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit cjgustafson.substack.com
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  • Driving revenue without selling | Greg Henry of 1Password
    In this episode of Run the Numbers, CJ sits down with Greg Henry, CFO of 1Password and one of the most commercially minded finance leaders in tech, to break down why he left the public-company grind at Couchbase for a PLG-driven security business and what he’s relearning in the private sphere. Greg explains how forecasting changes when the product does the selling, how to think about comp and pricing in a usage-led world, and the early tells that a model is quietly over- or under-performing. He shares why CFOs should meet far more customers than they do, how finance can drive revenue without stepping on sales, and what it actually takes for a company to plan with clarity instead of reacting. Greg also recounts the near-derailing of the Couchbase IPO, reflects on the “back nine” of his career, and offers grounded advice for aspiring first-time CFOs.—SPONSORS:RightRev automates the revenue recognition process from end to end, gives you real-time insights, and ensures ASC 606 / IFRS 15 compliance—all while closing books faster. For RevRec that auditors actually trust, visit https://www.rightrev.com and schedule a demo.Tipalti automates the entire payables process—from onboarding suppliers to executing global payouts—helping finance teams save time, eliminate costly errors, and scale confidently across 200+ countries and 120 currencies. More than 5,000 businesses already trust Tipalti to manage payments with built-in security and tax compliance. Visit https://www.tipalti.com/runthenumbers to learn more.Aleph automates 90% of manual, error-prone busywork, so you can focus on the strategic work you were hired to do. Minimize busywork and maximize impact with the power of a web app, the flexibility of spreadsheets, and the magic of AI. Get a personalised demo at https://www.getaleph.com/runFidelity Private Shares is the all-in-one equity management platform that keeps your cap table clean, your data room organized, and your equity story clear—so you never risk losing a fundraising round over messy records. Schedule a demo at https://www.fidelityprivateshares.com and mention Mostly Metrics to get 20% off.Metronome is real-time billing built for modern software companies. Metronome turns raw usage events into accurate invoices, gives customers bills they actually understand, and keeps finance, product, and engineering perfectly in sync. That’s why category-defining companies like OpenAI and Anthropic trust Metronome to power usage-based pricing and enterprise contracts at scale. Focus on your product — not your billing. Learn more and get started at https://www.metronome.comMercury is business banking built for builders, giving founders and finance pros a financial stack that actually works together. From sending wires to tracking balances and approving payments, Mercury makes it simple to scale without friction. Join the 200,000+ entrepreneurs who trust Mercury and apply online in minutes at https://www.mercury.com—LINKS:Greg on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/greghenry23/1Password: https://1password.com/CJ on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/cj-gustafson-13140948/Mostly metrics: https://www.mostlymetrics.com—RELATED EPISODES:Behind the Earnings Calls: Couchbase CFO Greg Henry on Consumption Models & Analyst Relationshttps://youtu.be/o_pDfz5a-Hw—TIMESTAMPS:00:00:00 Preview and Intro00:02:57 Sponsors – RightRev | Tipalti | Aleph00:07:03 Back in the Private Sphere: Why Greg Joined 1Password00:07:49 Greg’s Four-Part Framework for a Great Role00:10:12 Thinking About the “Back Nine” & Legacy00:13:16 Transitioning to PLG & SLG at 1Password00:15:12 Blending PLG Efficiency with Enterprise Sales00:17:12 Sponsors – Fidelity Private Shares | Metronome | Mercury00:20:03 B2C vs. B2B ARPU Contrast00:22:41 Forecasting in PLG vs. Sales-Led Models00:24:18 Building Toward Chunky Enterprise Upside00:25:39 Comp Plans: Complexity, Pitfalls & the Alexander Group00:27:35 Keep Comp Plans Simple & Focused on ARR00:29:10 Why Mid-Year Comp Plan Changes Are Dangerous00:31:04 Governance & Guardrails for SPIFFs00:33:19 Using the CFO Network to Drive Revenue00:34:52 Why CFOs Must Meet Customers Directly00:36:19 Wallet Share & Being a Buyer AND a Seller00:38:08 Why He Avoids 3-Year+ Commitments00:40:20 How Much Discount Is a “Year” Worth?00:42:31 Greg’s Structured Annual Planning Framework00:43:50 3–5% Upside/Downside Menu00:44:57 Comp Plans Must Go Out Early00:47:23 January Compensation & System Cutover Challenges00:48:31 Why Roadmap Alignment Must Kick Off Planning00:50:21 Sustain / Differentiate / Durable Growth / World-Class Teams Framework00:52:29 Couchbase IPO Almost Going Sideways00:54:59 How to Actually Become a CFO01:00:11 Legacy Greg Wants to Leave at 1Password#RunTheNumbersPodcast #CFOInsights #SaaSLeadership #PLGvsSLG #FinanceStrategy This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit cjgustafson.substack.com
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  • Do vanity plates bring serious business? | Mostly Growth
    In this Thanksgiving-week Mostly Growth episode, CJ Gustafson and Kyle Poyar ditch the serious finance talk for a looser, drinks-in-hand conversation with Ben Hillman, bouncing between CJ’s nostalgic emo-punk concert adventure, the curse of vanity license plates, and the epidemic of “Y-axis crimes” in founder charts. They riff on Spotify Wrapped copycats, YouTube becoming living-room TV, kids’ YouTube empires, and the game theory behind The Traitors and the Monty Hall problem before shifting into real-world pricing: newsletter perk economics, the pitfalls of hourly consulting, and why value-based packaging always wins. The episode stays playful but still sneaks in sharp insights on growth, psychology, and how weird the business world can be when you actually pay attention.—SPONSORS:Pulley is the cap table management platform built for CFOs and finance leaders who need reliable, audit-ready data and intuitive workflows, without the hidden fees or unreliable support. Switch in as little as 5 days and get 25% off your first year: https://pulley.com/mostlymetricsMetronome is real-time billing built for modern software companies. Metronome turns raw usage events into accurate invoices, gives customers bills they actually understand, and keeps finance, product, and engineering perfectly in sync. That’s why category-defining companies like OpenAI and Anthropic trust Metronome to power usage-based pricing and enterprise contracts at scale. Focus on your product — not your billing. Learn more and get started at https://www.metronome.com—LINKS:Mostly Metrics: https://www.mostlymetrics.comCJ on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/cj-gustafson-13140948/Growth Unhinged: https://www.growthunhinged.com/Kyle on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/kyle-poyar/Brian Balfour: brianbalfour.comBrian on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/bbalfour/Slacker Stuff: https://www.slackerstuff.com/Ben on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/slackerstuff/https://x.com/parikpatelcfa/status/1992706757073023191?s=46https://www.wired.com/story/null-license-plate-landed-one-hacker-ticket-hell/https://x.com/im_roy_lee/status/1992692253257855261/photo/1https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2025/01/16/the-traitors-a-reality-tv-show-offers-a-useful-economics-lessonhttps://www.cdccard.com/https://nyulangone.org/news/one-third-americans-are-trying-avoid-gluten-it-villain-we-think-it-ishttps://x.com/techsalesguy3/status/1991585201601016161?s=46https://www.fletchpmm.com/https://paintvine.co.nz/blogs/news/the-legend-of-picassos-napkin-sketch?srsltid=AfmBOooiyTYGfUdKJZLpblbQAcJzQLg011Os_xeyaCgSpEIXrtIuD6hHhttps://cityfeedandsupply.com/https://www.linkedin.com/posts/cj-gustafson-13140948_started-from-the-email-now-were-here-activity-7397607230600126465-iVPv/https://cooking.nytimes.com/recipes/1018731-buttermilk-brined-roast-chickenhttps://cooking.nytimes.com/recipes/1026610-porcini-ragu—RELATED EPISODES:Is a weekly martini ARR? | with Dave Kellogghttps://youtu.be/Yb1lUQLJ6qw—TIMESTAMPS:00:00:00 Special Message00:00:35 Preview and Intro00:01:41 Sponsors – Pulley & Metronome00:04:01 Mostly Drinks Episode00:05:14 Concert Stories & Pop-Punk Nostalgia00:08:05 Concert Parenting & Full-Circle Moment00:08:36 Business Blunders Begin00:10:26 License Plate Fails & Accounting Humor00:12:08 Y-Axis Crime Chart Review00:14:21 Global Podcast “Success” & Listener Jokes00:16:00 Spotify Wrapped: Retention vs. Acquisition00:17:04 YouTube as the Future of Podcasts00:17:56 Kids’ Shows, Blippi & Creator Economics00:18:55 The Traitors Show Overview00:20:30 Game Theory & Winning as a Traitor00:22:46 Monty Hall Problem Setup00:24:27 Game Show Logic & Gambler’s Fallacies00:26:09 Pricing in the Real World00:27:03 Community Discount Card Business Model00:29:09 Newsletter Perks & Subscriber Value00:30:34 Marketplace Discount Math00:32:01 Negotiating Like a CFO00:33:00 Gluten-Free Nights & Pricing Strategy00:35:24 Outbound Pizza as a Go-to-Market Play00:37:03 Outbound Pizza Tuesdays to Gluten-Free Tuesdays00:37:37 Pricing Services: Value vs. Hourly00:40:47 The Picasso Pricing Story00:42:55 Harvard Business School Case Study & Kim K Photo00:44:02 Thanksgiving Cooking: Roast Chicken & Porcini Ragu00:44:56 Wrap & Credits#MostlyGrowthPodcast #SaaSOperators #BusinessStrategyPod #CreatorEconomyTalks #FinanceNerds This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit cjgustafson.substack.com
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About Run the Numbers

Run the Numbers is a twice-weekly podcast about financial metrics and business models, designed for ambitious people operating tech startups. It's a collection of things host CJ Gustafson (CFO at Partstech and writer of Mostly Metrics) has learned and thought about in the trenches as a tech CFO. This show is meant to serve as a playbook of sorts for the stuff CJ wishes he knew earlier in his career, both from experience and from copying people smarter than himself. Topics frequently touch upon Startup SaaS Metrics, Annual Budgeting, Financial Forecasting, Headcount, Equity, Dilution, and Fundraising – and how all of these drive business performance and growth. cjgustafson.substack.com
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