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Run the Numbers

CJ Gustafson
Run the Numbers
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  • Too Big to Fail: The OpenAI Edition | Mostly Growth
    In this episode of Mostly Growth, CJ Gustafson and Kyle Poyar dig into what it means to be useful rather than just right at work, exploring how communication, empathy, and impact matter more than technical precision as careers mature. They share candid lessons from their own paths—CJ’s focus on making others look good to earn promotions and Kyle’s evolution into a domain expert through public writing—before unpacking what separates good from great VPs of Sales with insights from Pavilion founder Sam Jacobs. The conversation then shifts to OpenAI’s “too big to fail” claims, the economic ripple effects of AI infrastructure spending, and how finance leaders can stay grounded in reality. Rounding out the episode, the hosts preview their latest research—CJ’s “Agentic Finance” report on AI in the finance stack and Kyle’s 2025 SaaS Benchmarks—and close with lighthearted banter about founder age stats, home maintenance mishaps, and the price of professional Christmas lights—LINKS:Mostly Metrics: https://www.mostlymetrics.comCJ on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/cj-gustafson-13140948/Growth Unhinged: https://www.growthunhinged.com/Kyle on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/kyle-poyar/Slacker Stuff: https://www.slackerstuff.com/Ben on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/slackerstuff/https://sarahcharlton.substack.com/p/from-being-right-to-being-usefulhttps://www.highalpha.com/saas-benchmarkshttps://www.mostlymetrics.com/p/presenting-the-state-of-the-agentic-financial-stackhttps://www.mostlymetrics.com/p/finance-in-2030https://worksinprogress.co/issue/the-algorithm-will-see-you-now/https://www.theinformation.com/briefings/openai-ceo-sam-altman-forecasts-20-billion-annualized-revenue-yearhttps://www.growthunhinged.com/p/your-pricing-is-broken—RELATED EPISODES:When the marketing math doesn’t math | with Emily Kramerhttps://youtu.be/sSuoV_YSrlwGetting fired 4 times made me a founder | Sam Jacobs of Pavilionhttps://youtu.be/8X-JVOF-1A0How To Win at Early Stage Sales With the Guy Who Helped Take Snyk From $0 to $100M+https://youtu.be/VKrZCte8fyM996 Culture, Exploding AI Bills & SaaS Chaoshttps://youtu.be/qhrxDL0gsRo—TIMESTAMPS:00:00:00 Preview and Intro00:02:18 Sponsors – Pulley and Metronome00:05:09 Flight Cancellation and Airport Chaos00:07:58 Being Right vs. Being Useful00:11:17 Getting Promoted Early by Making Others Look Good00:15:25 What Separates a Good VP of Sales from a Great One00:18:24 Sales Leaders as Capital Allocators00:21:14 The Organizational Tax of Sales Support00:22:33 Is OpenAI Too Big to Fail?00:25:31 AI Investments, Alternatives, and Market Impact00:27:50 Bailouts and Economic Reality00:28:20 Agentic Finance and the AI-Driven Finance Stack00:31:43 SaaS Benchmarks Report 2025 Overview00:33:59 Growth Rates by ARR Tier and Scale00:35:40 AI’s Impact on Engineering Teams00:37:45 Age and Startup Success00:39:42 Building Durable Businesses Over Time00:41:25 Something You Tried This Week – HVAC Cleaning00:43:19 Outsourcing Holiday Cheer – Professional Light Installation00:47:08 Credits – Mostly Growth Closing Remarks—SPONSORS:Pulley is the cap table management platform built for CFOs and finance leaders who need reliable, audit-ready data and intuitive workflows, without the hidden fees or unreliable support. Switch in as little as 5 days and get 25% off your first year: https://pulley.com/mostlymetricsMetronome is real-time billing built for modern software companies. Metronome turns raw usage events into accurate invoices, gives customers bills they actually understand, and keeps finance, product, and engineering perfectly in sync. That’s why category-defining companies like OpenAI and Anthropic trust Metronome to power usage-based pricing and enterprise contracts at scale. Focus on your product — not your billing. Learn more and get started at https://www.metronome.com—#MostlyGrowthPodcast #StartupFinance #AIPodcast #SaaSLeadership #GoToMarket This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit cjgustafson.substack.com
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  • SPACs Are Back (Maybe) | Jeff Bernstein of Riveron
    In this episode of Run the Numbers, CJ sits down with Jeff Bernstein, managing partner at Riveron, to unpack what really happens when a company decides it might be time to go public. Jeff draws on his experience across banking, hedge funds, operating roles, and advisory work to break down IPOs, dual-track processes, and the surprising realities behind price discovery—including why a 20x-oversubscribed book isn’t what it seems. He also dives into the re-emergence of SPACs, what’s different this time, and the key considerations CFOs should weigh before choosing that route. From IPO-readiness must-haves to building the muscle memory needed for public-company life to the sketchiest EBITDA adjustment he’s ever seen, Jeff brings stories, frameworks, and hard-won lessons for any finance leader thinking about the road to the public markets.—LINKS:Jeff Bernstein on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jeff-bernstein-498a23158/Company: https://riveron.com/CJ on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/cj-gustafson-13140948/Mostly metrics: https://www.mostlymetrics.com—TIMESTAMPS:00:00:00 Preview and Intro00:02:59 Sponsors – Tipalti, Aleph, Fidelity Private Shares00:06:20 The Mechanics of Going Public at Riveron00:09:59 The State of Tech Capital Markets00:11:19 Comparing the Internet, Mobile, and AI Waves00:14:11 Understanding Dual Track Processes00:15:34 Sponsors – Metronome, Mercury, RightRev00:19:35 Why Companies Choose to Go Public or Sell00:23:02 Why Price Discovery Is Harder in Today’s Market00:26:05 The Pros and Cons of Direct Listings00:29:16 Balancing Fairness Between Employees and Investors00:30:47 Inside the IPO Pricing Process00:34:26 How Banks and Investors Game Allocations00:41:22 The Return of SPACs and Why They’re Back00:43:46 Key Considerations for CFOs Evaluating SPAC Mergers00:47:53 The Most Successful SPACs to Date00:49:00 Building Public Company Readiness00:52:03 Developing Muscle Memory for Quarterly Reporting00:55:31 The CFO’s Role as Chief Communicator00:57:47 Long-Ass Lightning Round – Overhyped Metrics and Sketchy EBITDA—SPONSORS:Tipalti automates the entire payables process—from onboarding suppliers to executing global payouts—helping finance teams save time, eliminate costly errors, and scale confidently across 200+ countries and 120 currencies. More than 5,000 businesses already trust Tipalti to manage payments with built-in security and tax compliance. Visit https://www.tipalti.com/runthenumbers to learn more.Aleph automates 90% of manual, error-prone busywork, so you can focus on the strategic work you were hired to do. Minimize busywork and maximize impact with the power of a web app, the flexibility of spreadsheets, and the magic of AI. Get a personalised demo at https://www.getaleph.com/runFidelity Private Shares is the all-in-one equity management platform that keeps your cap table clean, your data room organized, and your equity story clear—so you never risk losing a fundraising round over messy records. Schedule a demo at https://www.fidelityprivateshares.com and mention Mostly Metrics to get 20% off.Metronome is real-time billing built for modern software companies. Metronome turns raw usage events into accurate invoices, gives customers bills they actually understand, and keeps finance, product, and engineering perfectly in sync. That’s why category-defining companies like OpenAI and Anthropic trust Metronome to power usage-based pricing and enterprise contracts at scale. Focus on your product — not your billing. Learn more and get started at https://www.metronome.comMercury is business banking built for builders, giving founders and finance pros a financial stack that actually works together. From sending wires to tracking balances and approving payments, Mercury makes it simple to scale without friction. Join the 200,000+ entrepreneurs who trust Mercury and apply online in minutes at https://www.mercury.comRightRev automates the revenue recognition process from end to end, gives you real-time insights, and ensures ASC 606 / IFRS 15 compliance—all while closing books faster. For RevRec that auditors actually trust, visit https://www.rightrev.com and schedule a demo.—#RunTheNumbersPodcast #IPOmistakes #CFOinsights #SPACs #FinanceLeadership This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit cjgustafson.substack.com
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  • The Marketplace Plus Model Explained | Colin Gardiner of Yonder VC
    In this episode of Run the Numbers, CJ Gustafson sits down with Colin Gardiner, General Partner at Yonder VC and former Chief Revenue and Product Officer at Outdoorsy, to unpack what really drives successful marketplace businesses. Colin shares lessons from scaling a peer-to-peer RV platform, where the biggest unlock came not from casual users but from power hosts optimizing utilization and yield through the SaaS tools they built. He introduces his “Marketplace Plus” investing framework—showing how layering SaaS and professional tools can transform a platform into an operating system—and where founders risk overreaching by taking on inventory or managing supply too tightly. The conversation dives deep into monetization, pricing psychology, take rates, and the fine balance between product-market fit and margin obsession, before zooming out to explore how AI and the decline of SEO are reshaping marketplace discovery.—LINKS:Colin on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/colingardiner/Company: https://www.yonder.vc/CJ on X (@cjgustafson222): https://x.com/cjgustafson222Mostly metrics: https://www.mostlymetrics.com—RELATED EPISODES:996 Culture, Exploding AI Bills & SaaS Chaoshttps://youtu.be/qhrxDL0gsRo“Keep the Take Rate Low” - Turo’s Chuck Fisher on Scaling a Successful Peer-to-peerhttps://youtu.be/LKH8o1MjnZoThe Art of Stacking S-Curves: Olo’s Winning Vertical SaaS Strategy with CFO Peter Benevideshttps://youtu.be/1X2VoYogj44—TIMESTAMPS:00:00:00 Intro and Guest Overview00:02:57 Sponsors – RightRev, Tipalti, and Aleph00:07:13 Outdoorsy and the RV Market00:10:33 Balancing Supply and Demand00:13:05 Marketplace Plus Model00:16:59 Sponsors – Fidelity Private Shares, Metronome, and Mercury00:21:45 Professionalizing Marketplaces00:24:10 Building Software, Insurance, and Financing Layers00:28:07 Avoiding Fully Managed Models00:32:34 Take Rates and Pricing Strategy00:35:00 Monetizing Both Sides00:37:06 Advertising and Marketplace Scale00:39:48 Marketplaces Meet Social Platforms00:42:36 AI and Marketplace Distribution00:45:54 AI Agents and Matchmaking00:47:03 When AI Becomes the Supply00:49:09 Negative Gross Margins and Scale00:53:04 Picking a Side – Supply or Demand00:54:35 Branding, Utilization, and Growth00:55:42 Closing and Credits—SPONSORS:RightRev automates the revenue recognition process from end to end, gives you real-time insights, and ensures ASC 606 / IFRS 15 compliance—all while closing books faster. For RevRec that auditors actually trust, visit https://www.rightrev.com and schedule a demo.Tipalti automates the entire payables process—from onboarding suppliers to executing global payouts—helping finance teams save time, eliminate costly errors, and scale confidently across 200+ countries and 120 currencies. More than 5,000 businesses already trust Tipalti to manage payments with built-in security and tax compliance. Visit https://www.tipalti.com/runthenumbers to learn more.Aleph automates 90% of manual, error-prone busywork, so you can focus on the strategic work you were hired to do. Minimize busywork and maximize impact with the power of a web app, the flexibility of spreadsheets, and the magic of AI. Get a personalised demo at https://www.getaleph.com/runFidelity Private Shares is the all-in-one equity management platform that keeps your cap table clean, your data room organized, and your equity story clear—so you never risk losing a fundraising round over messy records. Schedule a demo at https://www.fidelityprivateshares.com and mention Mostly Metrics to get 20% off.Metronome is real-time billing built for modern software companies. Metronome turns raw usage events into accurate invoices, gives customers bills they actually understand, and keeps finance, product, and engineering perfectly in sync. That’s why category-defining companies like OpenAI and Anthropic trust Metronome to power usage-based pricing and enterprise contracts at scale. Focus on your product — not your billing. Learn more and get started at https://www.metronome.comMercury is business banking built for builders, giving founders and finance pros a financial stack that actually works together. From sending wires to tracking balances and approving payments, Mercury makes it simple to scale without friction. Join the 200,000+ entrepreneurs who trust Mercury and apply online in minutes at https://www.mercury.com—#RunTheNumbersPodcast #MarketplaceStrategy #AIPoweredBusiness #SaaSModel #StartupFinance This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit cjgustafson.substack.com
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  • Guess That Name: Pop Star or SaaS Bro? | Mostly Growth
    In this high-energy episode of Mostly Growth, CJ Gustafson, Kyle Poyar, and Ben Hillman dive into the hidden levers of SaaS growth and what truly separates startups that scale to $20M+ ARR from those that stall out. They explore eye-opening data from 6,500 companies, revealing how the best improve net retention, raise pricing, and re-engineer their revenue models over time. Alongside the metrics, there’s plenty of playful chaos—like a naming debate over “Yoshinobu Yamamoto Gustafson,” a rapid-fire game of “Founder or Pop Star,” and CJ’s accidental IPO embargo break. It’s part insight, part inside joke, and 100% for SaaS operators and C-suite climbers.—LINKS:Mostly Metrics: https://www.mostlymetrics.comCJ on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/cj-gustafson-13140948/Growth Unhinged: https://www.growthunhinged.com/Kyle on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/kyle-poyar/Slacker Stuff: https://www.slackerstuff.com/Ben on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/slackerstuff/https://www.growthunhinged.com/p/the-compounding-startuphttps://www.growthunhinged.com/p/the-odds-of-making-ithttps://www.superme.ai/kylepoyar?conversationId=VgDXTOl2Z89mW7UYXstU0bhttps://a16z.com/anatomy-of-an-enterprise-platform-company/https://www.investopedia.com/terms/h/hhi.asphttps://navan.com/https://www.mostlymetrics.com/p/navan-ipo-s1-breakdownhttps://x.com/amendandpretend/status/1983588137453416763?s=46https://x.com/ryan_c_walsh/status/1983705182371475630?s=46https://www.reddit.com/r/TwinCities/comments/z6hxp8/how_much_are_people_paying_for_residential_snow/—RELATED EPISODES:Getting fired 4 times made me a founder | Sam Jacobs of Pavilionhttps://youtu.be/8X-JVOF-1A0Why Founders Are Posting Sad Dinnershttps://youtu.be/Zl6NSIHF2Gk—TIMESTAMPS:00:00:00 Preview and Intro00:01:55 Sponsors – Pulley & Metronome00:04:25 Dodgers Banter & Baby Naming00:05:38 Founder or Pop Star Game00:07:50 ChartMogul Data & Growth Levers00:08:30 Expansion, Upsell & Retention Discussion00:15:53 Testing Kyle’s AI Avatar00:17:07 CJ’s AI Self-Query & Beta Discussion00:18:04 AI Use Cases & Knowledge Retention00:22:03 Platform Debate & A16z Analysis00:24:29 Herfindahl-Hirschman Index Explained00:25:34 Platform Metrics & Valuation Upside00:26:48 CrowdStrike, Datadog & Multi-Product Expansion00:28:13 Core Systems of Record & AI’s Impact00:29:49 Business Blunders – Navan IPO & Snowflake CRO00:34:07 Snow Removal Pricing & Insurance Logic00:35:56 Closing Remarks & Credits—SPONSORS:Metronome is real-time billing built for modern software companies. Metronome turns raw usage events into accurate invoices, gives customers bills they actually understand, and keeps finance, product, and engineering perfectly in sync. That’s why category-defining companies like OpenAI and Anthropic trust Metronome to power usage-based pricing and enterprise contracts at scale. Focus on your product — not your billing. Learn more and get started at https://www.metronome.comPulley is the cap table management platform built for CFOs and finance leaders who need reliable, audit-ready data and intuitive workflows, without the hidden fees or unreliable support. Switch in as little as 5 days and get 25% off your first year: https://pulley.com/mostlymetrics—#MostlyGrowthPodcast #SaaSGrowth #StartupStrategy #B2BTech #RevenueRetention This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit cjgustafson.substack.com
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  • Getting fired 4 times made me a founder | Sam Jacobs of Pavilion
    In this episode of Run the Numbers, CJ Gustafson sits down with Sam Jacobs, Founder and CEO of Pavilion, the global community for GTM leaders. Sam shares how getting fired multiple times as a CRO led him to build a business rooted in belonging — one that monetized members first, prioritized intimacy over growth, and turned a Slack group into a multimillion-dollar company. He and CJ unpack the mechanics of community: the tradeoffs between exclusivity and expansion, why venture capital doesn’t always fit human-centered businesses, and how Pavilion balances pricing, curation, and access. They also explore the evolution of the GTM function — from the myth of the plug-and-play VP of Sales to how AI is reshaping RevOps, forecasting, and leadership. Finally, Sam reflects on building durable value beyond personal brand and what it really takes to scale trust as a product.—LINKS:Sam Jacobs on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/samfjacobs/Company: https://www.joinpavilion.com/CJ on X (@cjgustafson222): https://x.com/cjgustafson222Mostly metrics: https://www.mostlymetrics.com—RELATED EPISODES:E120: What does the future of tech look like when it costs $0 to switch software?https://www.youtube.com/live/Cpw2pkq-FXI?si=-0y0tcLTIlIbkmyOCFOs: Want to Outmaneuver Your Competitors? Here’s the Jedi Mind Trickhttps://youtu.be/Yte_fe1xF90?si=hVfgdd0Fg0PQuuoSThe Gross Margin Episode with Sarah Wang of a16zhttps://youtu.be/72aP5ohBxvE—TIMESTAMPS:00:00:00 Preview and Intro00:03:05 Sponsors – Mercury, RightRev, and Tipalti00:06:50 Pavilion, Community, and Go-to-Market Leadership00:10:28 Career Tenure and Executive Turnover00:12:55 Compensation Structure and Equity Negotiation00:14:31 Building Wealth Through Equity00:16:30 Sponsors – Aleph, Fidelity Private Shares, and Metronome00:19:36 Managing Wealth, Lifestyle, and Longevity in Leadership00:22:58 Founding Pavilion to Empower Operators00:25:13 Taking Roles for Learning, Titles, and Leverage00:28:47 Contrarian Executives, Team Dynamics, and Leadership Lessons00:30:36 What Makes a Great VP of Sales00:33:23 Revenue, Profitability, and Misaligned Incentives00:35:08 Quota Setting, Forecasting, and Spreadsheet Pitfalls00:39:07 AI in Sales and the Myth of the AI SDR00:40:32 The Future of Playbooks in the Age of AI00:43:38 The Dangers of AI and the Need for Humans in the Loop00:45:27 Monetizing Pavilion – Memberships, Sponsors, and Pricing Strategy00:49:30 Building Higher-Margin Community Businesses00:57:46 Building a Personal Brand with Long-Term Value01:01:52 Closing Credits and Outro—SPONSORS:Mercury is business banking built for builders, giving founders and finance pros a financial stack that actually works together. From sending wires to tracking balances and approving payments, Mercury makes it simple to scale without friction. Join the 200,000+ entrepreneurs who trust Mercury and apply online in minutes at https://www.mercury.comRightRev automates the revenue recognition process from end to end, gives you real-time insights, and ensures ASC 606 / IFRS 15 compliance—all while closing books faster. For RevRec that auditors actually trust, visit https://www.rightrev.com and schedule a demo.Tipalti automates the entire payables process—from onboarding suppliers to executing global payouts—helping finance teams save time, eliminate costly errors, and scale confidently across 200+ countries and 120 currencies. More than 5,000 businesses already trust Tipalti to manage payments with built-in security and tax compliance. Visit https://www.tipalti.com/runthenumbers to learn more.Aleph automates 90% of manual, error-prone busywork, so you can focus on the strategic work you were hired to do. Minimize busywork and maximize impact with the power of a web app, the flexibility of spreadsheets, and the magic of AI. Get a personalised demo at https://www.getaleph.com/runFidelity Private Shares is the all-in-one equity management platform that keeps your cap table clean, your data room organized, and your equity story clear—so you never risk losing a fundraising round over messy records. Schedule a demo at https://www.fidelityprivateshares.com and mention Mostly Metrics to get 20% off.Metronome is real-time billing built for modern software companies. Metronome turns raw usage events into accurate invoices, gives customers bills they actually understand, and keeps finance, product, and engineering perfectly in sync. That’s why category-defining companies like OpenAI and Anthropic trust Metronome to power usage-based pricing and enterprise contracts at scale. Focus on your product — not your billing. Learn more and get started at https://www.metronome.com#RunTheNumbersPodcast #Finance #CommunityBuilding #Leadership #GoToMarket This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit cjgustafson.substack.com
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About Run the Numbers

Run the Numbers is a twice-weekly podcast about financial metrics and business models, designed for ambitious people operating tech startups. It's a collection of things host CJ Gustafson (CFO at Partstech and writer of Mostly Metrics) has learned and thought about in the trenches as a tech CFO. This show is meant to serve as a playbook of sorts for the stuff CJ wishes he knew earlier in his career, both from experience and from copying people smarter than himself. Topics frequently touch upon Startup SaaS Metrics, Annual Budgeting, Financial Forecasting, Headcount, Equity, Dilution, and Fundraising – and how all of these drive business performance and growth. cjgustafson.substack.com
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