Blain’s Morning Porridge Nov 20th, 2025 – If it’s not AI, will it be Private Capital Markets that trigger crisis?
If it’s not AI, will it be Private Capital Markets that trigger crisis?“Private Capital Markets thrive because other markets arerun by compliance and over-regulated.” Markets are less fragile than we think. There are always people watching, waiting and ready to catch bargains. Some risks are in plain sight. But in Private Capital Markets they are hidden – which is why many market players believe the scale of losses might be hidden. Will Private Markets trigger the next crisis? I doubt it. You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on www.morningporridge.com, and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!
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Blain’s Morning Porridge Nov 19th, 2025 – Scotland, Kilts and Fitba’, has the world gone mad?
Scotland, Kilts and Fitba’, has the world gone mad?“We’re on the march wi’ Ally’s Army… we’ll really shakeem up when we win the World Cup…”The world has gone mad, but fear not, Scotland qualifying for the World Cup will trigger growth, prosperity and happiness (for a wee while – 3 games I expect). The imminent launch of Scottish KILTS bonds will open a Pandora’s box of difficult questions.Forget the impending bubble pop in AI. Fear not the loomingcredit bust that is Private Credit. Be unconcerned about Japanese bond yields starting to spike. Sleep sound as bitcoin proves as hollow, pointless and scammy as I always said it was. Ignore the possibility a global inflationary impulse is about to sink bond markets triggering global market mayhem. The clearest signs yet of absolute irrational market exuberanceis about to hit are to be found in two improbable things before breakfast: Scotland has qualified for the World Cup next year – 47 years after the greatest World Cup goal in the history of the Galaxy,Archie Gemmill vs Holland in the Argentina World Cup, and 27 years after Scotland had the temerity to score vs Brazil in the 1998 cup (I was there), finally there is a chance Football will be coming home to where it belongs… Hampden. Even more improbably…. my team, Heart of Midlothian, (The Jambos) the perennial10th best team in a two-team league, isleading the Scottish Premier League, and hasn’t lost a game this season! They are 7 points clear of the mighty Celtic. And to cap it all, Scotland nearly beat the magnificent AllBlacks last weekend at Rugby. (We won’t mention how they snatched a humiliating defeat from certain victory against the Pumas on Saturday.) What has this got to do with markets you are thinking? LOTS.. lets talk about KILTS.
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Blain’s Morning Porridge Nov 18th, 2025 – AI is dead! Long Live AI!
“It’s the end of the world all over again…” Headlines about a deepening stock sell off, the rising fear” gauge, and unsustainable valuations, are dominating the news flow. Relax. End of the world market crashes happen all the time. Sit back and enjoy the show. Get your buying boots ready. “No company is going to be immune , including us” saidSundar Pichai of Google. Peter Theil has sold out of Nvidia. When one of my chums, a “creative” up in London, asked on Sunday if she should invest in AI, you know it’s way too late. Even the BBC has noticed the AI bubble might be a bust…But it won’t be the end of the World… Something new will emerge. There was a time, not long ago, when calling the end of theAI bubble would have made me a contrarian. Not anymore. It’s the new consensus. Before launching into this morning’s Porridge on why AI is going to become a massively profitable utility post the inevitable correction. Let me just post a warning: There is a chance… a small one, that a market correction nowdevelops into something much, much worse that will trigger bond markets and global chaos…. but why worry now about something we’re only going to have to worry about later… This morning its AI is Dead, Long Live AI!
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Blain’s Morning Porridge Nov 17th 2025 – The Political Weaponisation of Gilts
In bonds there is truth – at least there was until politicalcampaigners realised what a powerful tool they might be to amplify political failure. Destabilising markets by roiling bonds is unlikely to end well. The consequences could be fearful. Something snapped last week in Gilts, the UK’s GovernmentBond market. Normally I would call a sudden wobble in sentiment as a judder-moment, when something critical happens – like an athlete’s hamstring tearing – underminesconfidence and impacts market direction. Last week it was a succession of events suddenly overwhelming the market’s confidence in the Labour Government. But…. I smell a rat. Lots of them. I see my self-appointed job writing the Morning Porridge as cutting through the Noise to get to the Signal. At the risk of peeving lots of Tory and Reform readers, let me say what I suspect. I think what we are seeing in Gilts is a result of deliberate misinformation and deflection. I reckon the government is being overwhelmed by a deliberate programme of Weaponising the Gilts Market to undermine confidence. When strange things happen, ask who benefits. In this case, theDark Minds of the Right Wing, who see what has been achieved in the USA, spotted the opportunity to undermine government. They don’t seek to boost the now largely irrelevant and clueless Tories, but Reform, who are, as yet, blank policy pages to be written on. They intend to be filling in these policy blanks. The Right Wing weaponizing the Gilts Market is a pretty bigcharge to start off Monday morning. Some may think I’ve gone full foil-hat conspiracy theorist, but let’s go with it…
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Blain’s Morning Porridge 14th Nov 2025 – How low will Bitcoin go this time?
How low will Bitcoin go this time?“Trading is playing market sentiment. Investment is aboutpredicting the future.”Bitcoin believers are perfectly entitled to believe what they want to believe. The rest of us: too clever to fall for the hype, ortoo stupid to understand – depending on your perspective, have grandstand seats for the BTC “how low will it go this time” championship. Bitcoin is the ultimate trading asset. It is the pure essenceof what a perfect market could be – a refined distillation of the beliefs and sentiment underlying it. BTC is largely untroubled by the difficult base questions that distort other assets, distractions such as the economy, monetary or fiscal developments, conflict and noise. At least that’s what it likes us to think.For an asset class that is supposed to be defi from trad money and the ructions caused by the evils of fiat monetary manipulation, Bitcoin is highly correlated to traditional market weaknesses!
Bill Blain is well know market commentator and has published the daily Morning Porridge explaining markets sincee 2007. This podcast is a daily update of the Porridge.
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