Blain's Morning Porridge

• The US economy, Potemkin Markets and QE

  Blain’s Morning Porridge Dec 11th, 2025 – The US economy, Potemkin Markets and QE“The IQ of a mob is the IQ of the dumbest member divided by the number of the crowd.”Y’day we had yet another Judder Moment for markets as the Fed surrendered to Trump and prepares to juice the markets with renewed QE. Have we learnt nothing? No, I guess we have not. Pretend and keep pretending as we enter the Potemkin Economy era. This will not end well.LINK TO PODCASTWhat should we make of yesterday’s Fed Meeting? A cut in Fed Funds to 3.50-3.75%. Huzzah! Ah, the madness of crowds… “Oh no, here we go again” said the bowl of petunias.What we witnessed at yesterday’s Fed meeting was extraordinary. A bunch of academics debating angels on a pinhead while under the presidential cosh? Were they thinking about their role as the guardians of price stability and job security.. or were they focused on the political trend. Lots of talk about elevated risks to inflation and jobs.. but lots of what looked like dither and analysis paralysis.In the ongoing absence of tangible and real data, and current politics.… lots to argue about. It’s clear what the president wants – lower rates to keep juicing the stock market into the Mid-Terms in 11 months time.. A strong stock market looks like a strong America. Simple As.Welcome to the Potemkin Political Economy…

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• What does new US Security Strategy mean for Markets and Outlook?

  Blain’s Morning Porridge Dec 9th, 2025 – What does new US Security Strategy mean for Markets and Outlook?“For he on honey-dew hath fed, and drunk the milk of Paradise.”The new US National Security Strategy (NSS) revealed last week confirms just how much the world has changed. It was a kick in the teeth for Europe and leaves the door ajar on Taiwan. It’s unlikely to foster stability. It increases the pressure on Europe to swiftly rearm, and unify its defence and deterrence capabilities. For America – it raises fundamental questions about its declining power, strength, might and economic outlook. A number of Porridge Readers asked yesterday why I hadn’t commented on President Trump’s new US National Security Strategy (NSS) yesterday. The Strategy was released last Thursday, but given my close involvement with Spitfire Strategic Capital, the hybrid PE/Defence Fund, I held off till I’d discussed it with the Fund Principals.(For the record: The comments below are entirely my own, and don’t represent the views of the Fund.)The US NSS puts the recent launch of the Spitfire Fund into an even more urgent context. As others have commented, “it could have been authored by Putin.” Europe now has even less time to rebuild its defensive capabilities and prepare itself for decades of crisis. The only way it will survive is through deterrence and being prepared against multiple threats – Russia is the immediately obvious one. Others will be coming.Sadly, I am utterly unconvinced European governments collectively appreciate the urgency and scale of the threat facing them. They are still failing to prioritise the urgency of new defence spending.You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on ⁠www.morningporridge.com⁠, and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!

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• Markets, The Global Economy and the ‘26 US Midterms.

  Blain’s Morning Porridge Dec 8th, 2025 – Markets, TheGlobal Economy and the ‘26 US Midterms.  “It’s all about the economy, stupid…”This week will see the Fed ease rates, stocks will rally on happyretail buying any dip, and everyone will go into the holidays joyful… Except they won’t. There is so much still bubbling under the hood of the US economy that can go “bang”. Don’t watch the USA – watch China for clues.You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on ⁠www.morningporridge.com⁠, and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!

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• Hans-Jeorge Rudloff could teach us much about markets…

  Blain’s Morning Porridge Dec 4th, 2025 – Hans-Jeorge Rudloff could teach us much about markets… “When the Eurobond market exploded, it made London the centre of the world…” This is not an obituary – but a story about markets. Hans-Jeorge Rudloff, who passed away earlier this week, was the dominant figure of the Eurobond market. His insights and vision were extraordinary – understanding how marketsworked, how to dominate them, and setting the foundations for today’s $120 trillion global market!Yesterday one of my chums and market mentors called me with the news Hans-Jeorge Rudloff, one of the founding fathers of the Euromarkets, had passed away on Monday. Between us, my friend and I must have over 90 years of market experience, but we both owe our careers and success to the market that Rudloffand a small number of others created. In 1985 – when I first started bothering my betters in finance - the Eurobond market funded around $165 bln in new debt. It was young and developing - the rules were being made up as it developed, but it was tremendously exciting. In its first 2 decades (from 1963) the Euro-market had grown from zero to 10% of global market debt capacity of a couple of trillion dollars! Today, the Global bond markets are a $120 trillion plus phenomena! There are multiple subsets of the fixed income markets – most of which thrive. Asia is set to overtake the USA as the largest component of fixed income flows later this decade.You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on ⁠www.morningporridge.com⁠, and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!

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• Pantomime, King Rat, and Outrageous Predictions

  Blain’s Morning Porridge Dec 3rd, 2025 – Pantomime, King Rat, and Outrageous Predictions "It’s behind you, oh no it isn’t!” What’s not to like about Panto? Saxo Bank’s excellent Outrageous Predictions for 2026 are out.. Lets dig into why Sir Keir Starmer might consider rejoining Europe to peeve Nigel Farage, how China will dominate trade through Tech and a gold-linked Yuan, and why SpaceX is unlikely to be the first $1 trillion IPO.You can read the Morning Porridge by subscribing on ⁠www.morningporridge.com⁠, and have it delivered fresh to your inbox every morning!

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