Lots More on the Big Problem With the Monthly Jobs Report
We've been in a strange labor market for a while now. The unemployment rate is still nice and low at 4.2%. But the pace of job creation has been slowing markedly. And furthermore, not only has the pace of job creation been slowing, it seems almost every monthly Non-Farm Payrolls number ends up getting revised lower. Of course, this comes at a time of some big transitions in the workforce — whether we're talking immigration changes, aging demographics, or AI. As such, just understanding the monthly data has never been more difficult. And because it's so difficult, it's also challenging to get a read-through from data to policy. On this episode we speak with Steven Englander, global head of G10 FX research and North America strategy at Standard Chartered Bank. In addition to talking about the state of the labor market, we also discuss the goings-on in bond markets, and why the stress is particularly acute in Europe. Only Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox — now delivered every weekday — plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlotsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
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24:04
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24:04
What's Behind the Boom in Buy Now Pay Later
Buy Now Pay Later is everywhere nowadays. Companies like Affirm, Afterpay, and Klarna have brought installment payments into everyday life, while big banks and tech firms also now racing into the space. With the market growing so rapidly, there are obvious concerns over whether BNPL is adding a new layer of 'hidden leverage' to the economy, giving online shoppers an alternative to more traditional financing like credit cards and bank loans. Data about BNPL usage is notoriously limited, and BNPL firms have so far resisted sharing information. In this episode, we speak with Julie Margetta Morgan, formerly at the CFPB and now president of The Century Foundation, about what's driving the BNPL market, how BNPL companies make money, and the macroeconomic impacts of the BNPL boom. Read more:Klarna, Backers Seek $1.27 Billion in IPO After Tariff PauseDollar Tree Boosts Outlook as Consumers Keep Hunting for Deals Only Bloomberg - Business News, Stock Markets, Finance, Breaking & World News subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlotsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
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36:08
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36:08
Dan Wang on China's Breakneck Economic Growth
In the past couple of years, the world has fully awoken to the incredible economic and technological growth exhibited by China. But what lessons are there for America? Are there even lessons for America? Dan Wang, research fellow at Stanford University's Hoover History Lab, has probably been one of the foremost commentators and observers on China's rise, having taken seriously their efforts to push the technological frontiers for years now. Now, he's out with a new book BREAKNECK: China's Quest to Engineer the Future. On this episode, we talk about what he's seen in the country, whether China is legitimately on the road to socialism, and how perceptions of the country have changed since he started doing his research. Read more:Samsung, SK Hynix Lose US Waivers on Chip Gear for China PlantsChina Warns Against Excess Competition in Booming AI Race Only Bloomberg - Business News, Stock Markets, Finance, Breaking & World News subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlotsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
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49:59
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49:59
Big Take: Taylor Swift Wedding Predictions Are the Hottest New Trade
Gamblers on prediction sites like Polymarket and Kalshi are already trying to cash in on Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce’s engagement — betting on everything from their wedding timeline to her next single.On today’s Big Take podcast, host Sarah Holder sits down with Bloomberg personal finance reporter Francesca Maglione and wealth reporter Annie Massa to dig into what a high-profile engagement can teach us about the rapidly growing predictions industry, the challenges with regulating it and who’s investing in its future. Like this episode? Listen and Subscribe to the Big Take podcast on Apple, Spotify, iHeart or wherever you get your podcastsOnly Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox — now delivered every weekday — plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlotsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
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15:27
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15:27
Emi Nakamura on Central Bank Credibility and the Taylor Rule
The post-Covid inflation will prove to be a treasure trove for academic economists, as they study what drives inflation, and the power that central banks have to contain it once it gets going. At this year's Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, UC Berkeley professor Emi Nakamura presented a new paper — co-authored with her Berkeley colleagues Jón Steinsson and Venance Riblier — titled Beyond the Taylor Rule. The paper sought to look at the wide range of choices that global central banks made in dealing with inflation to see what if anything could be learned about the Taylor Rule, a load-bearing idea in modern economics that describes what optimal monetary policy looks like when successfully balancing the Federal Reserve's objectives. Their paper discovers that in any bout of inflation, a central bank that has a greater history of fighting inflation also has the ability to deviate further from strict Taylor Rule guidelines, without achieving worse inflation outcomes. In an interview recorded in Jackson Hole, we speak with Professor Nakamura about her work and its implications for central bankers going forward. Only Bloomberg.com subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox — now delivered every weekday — plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlotsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Bloomberg's Joe Weisenthal and Tracy Alloway explore the most interesting topics in finance, markets and economics. Join the conversation every Monday and Thursday.
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