Odd Lots

Last week, the US joined forces with Japan to try to stop the yen’s slide. It’s the first time the two sides have intervened in the Japanese currency in 15 years, and in many ways it was an unprecedented and unusual move, with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent choosing to sell euros (as opposed to dollars) and the use of a little-known Federal Reserve repo facility. So why did the yen’s value drop so precipitously in the first place? And will this intervention be enough to stop it? Brad Setser, senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, explains why the Bank of Japan initially refrained from raising rates, why East Asian currencies (not just the yen) have been so weak lately, the improving fiscal outlook for Japan, and what to look out for next.
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Bloomberg Opinion columnist David Fickling tells us you can think of tungsten mining as “a century old prediction market for war.” As he writes in a recent piece, tungsten is “a super-element that can determine the fate of nations.” While the commercial market for tungsten is fairly small, it can be crucial in war manufacturing, due to its high density and melting point. He learned more about tungsten mining, and its increasing geopolitical necessity, during a visit to Australia's Dolphin Mine, which has a history of opening up during times of war, and then closing again during times of peace. He explains to us why investors are once again interested in tungsten mining and why it's been so hard (over the last century) to sustain production outside of China.
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Insurers have quietly become a major driver of the private credit boom, with numerous private equity shops striking deals with insurance companies or buying them outright. But the entanglement with private credit is also changing the insurance industry itself, raising a number of questions about risk and regulation. Today we speak to Andrew Granato and Pranjal Drall, authors of a new paper, “Private Credit's State Backstop: How Private Equity Socializes Risk Through Insurers," examining the relationship between private credit and insurance. Granato (an assistant professor at the UT Austin Law School) and Drall (JD-PhD student in Financial Economics at Yale) talk to us about how PE got so interested in insurance in the first place, how both sides benefit from the relationship, and why taxpayers might ultimately be on the hook.
Read more:
Blue Owl Surges as Leaders Stress It’s More Than a Direct Lender
Ares $29 Billion Private Credit Fund Sees Uptick in Non-Accruals
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After the Iranian Revolution of 1979, the country's new leaders — religious and political — promised to redistribute the country's wealth and made moves to make Iran independent from western influence and business interests. In the decades since, Iran's economy completely transformed, and it is closer to what Yeganeh Torbati and Bozorgmehr Sharafedin describe as a "mafia state," where fealty to various factions is baked into the country's political economy. In their new book Stolen Revolution: Betrayal and Hope in Modern Iran they trace the massive changes Iran's political economy has undergone since the revolution, and they speak to us today about this history, how average Iranians navigate everyday cronyism, how Iranian leaders treated the country's burgeoning tech sector, and why the recent peace talks might not change all that much about how the country's economy currently operates.
Read more:A New Age of Missiles Reshapes Battlefields Around The WorldUS War With Iran Set to Drag On for Months Over Hormuz Deadlock
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It's pretty obvious by now that globalization has fallen out of favor. And while many pundits have deemed economic globalism dead, we are still figuring out what to call this new era. Branko Milanovic's chosen phrase is "national market liberalism," a term that sums up how a world once defined by the free movement of capital has begun to contract as the most powerful governments have come to favor mercantilism and nationalism. In his new book, The Great Global Transformation: The United States, China, and the Remaking of the World Economic Order, the famed economist explains what comes after globalization. He talks to us about China's economic evolution, the pressure it has put on elites in the West, and much more.
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