Palisades Gold Radio

Stijn Schmitz welcomes Doomberg to the show. Doomberg is Head Writer For The Doomberg Team and Creator of the Doomberg Substack. The podcast explores the current geopolitical and energy landscape, focusing on the ongoing conflicts in the Middle East and potential global power dynamics. Discussing the current energy market disruptions, Doomberg suggests that while the Strait of Hormuz closure is significant, the market has been surprisingly stable. He estimates the potential oil supply disruption at around 8 million barrels per day, significantly lower than some analysts’ predictions.

The sophisticated oil markets have absorbed these challenges, with China potentially playing a crucial role by releasing strategic reserves and managing supply. The conversation delves into a potential grand geopolitical bargain that might be discussed in the upcoming meeting between Trump and Xi in Beijing. Doomberg speculates about a potential realignment of global interests, including a settlement of the Ukraine conflict on terms favorable to Russia, ceding Taiwan to China’s sphere of influence, and dividing Middle Eastern and Arctic territories among major powers. Regarding the US dollar and global economic shifts, Doomberg argues that we’re moving towards a multipolar or potentially Chinese-dominated unipolar world. He sees the sanctions against Russia after Crimea as the beginning of a new world order, with China and Russia challenging US global dominance.

The discussion highlights the United States’ significant natural gas advantage, with the country producing 110 billion cubic feet per day and poised to become a major LNG exporter. Doomberg emphasizes the potential for North American energy dominance, particularly through clean and abundant natural gas. Looking forward, Doomberg suggests a potential multipolar world with the US focusing on its Western Hemisphere, China gaining prominence, and Russia finding its place. He remains cautiously optimistic about a potential diplomatic resolution to current global tensions, while acknowledging the complexity of geopolitical negotiations.

Timestamps:

00:00:00 – Introduction

00:00:38 – Oil Supply Disruption Assessment

00:03:54 – China’s Oil Stockpiling Role

00:05:02 – Oil Price Mechanics Explained

00:10:24 – Supply Shortage Estimates

00:12:52 – Strait Reopening Impact

00:15:20 – Trump-Xi Meeting Significance

00:17:54 – Grand Bargain Outlines

00:22:45 – US Western Hemisphere Focus

00:26:30 – Fading Oil Spike Strategy

00:31:03 – Fertilizers and Commodity Impacts

00:34:53 – Helium Just-In-Time

00:36:16 – OPEC & the Petrodollar

00:39:20 – Geopolitical Shifts and Gold

00:46:46 – Unipolarity Outcomes

00:53:46 – Euro Hydrocarbon Resources

00:56:37 – Concluding Thoughts

Guest Links:

Substack: https://doomberg.substack.com

X: https://x.com/DoombergT

Website: https://doomberg.com

Doomberg is the anonymous publishing arm of a bespoke consulting firm providing advisory services to family offices and c-suite executives. Its principals apply their decades of experience across heavy industry, private equity, and finance to deliver innovative thinking and clarity to complex problems.

Stijn Schmitz welcomes Luke Gromen to the show. Luke Gromen is President and Founder of Forest For The Trees. Luke explores unprecedented global economic and geopolitical shifts, focusing on massive commodity supply disruptions and transforming monetary systems. He highlights several critical trends: the largest commodity supply flow disruption in history, unprecedented levels of globalization, sovereign debt, and market valuations. He argues that current global tensions, particularly around the Strait of Hormuz, could trigger significant economic challenges. The potential closure of strategic maritime routes could lead to dramatic supply chain breakdowns, potentially causing localized famines and massive economic disruptions.

Gromen suggests that while the US dollar will remain widely used, it will no longer be the primary wealth storage mechanism. China is strategically positioning itself by establishing yuan-gold settlement systems and offshore clearing banks, effectively creating a multi-currency framework with gold as the pivotal settlement asset.

Geographically, Gromen sees varied outcomes for different regions. He believes the United States has geographical advantages but warns against urban living during this transition. Europe appears most vulnerable, while Asian countries like China, Japan, and South Korea are potentially well-positioned to benefit from these shifts, particularly given their engineering capabilities and demographic dynamics.

Regarding commodities, Gromen anticipates a generational trend favoring strategic metals like copper, silver, nickel, rare earths, and uranium. He predicts that future commodity trades will increasingly require value-for-value exchanges, moving away from paper-based transactions. The underlying theme is a fundamental restructuring of global economic systems, driven by supply chain fragilities, geopolitical tensions, and the need for more resilient, productivity-focused economic models. Gromen suggests this transition will likely involve significant inflation and economic recalibration, with gold playing a central role in the emerging monetary landscape.

Timestamps:

00:00:00 – Introduction

00:00:44 – Unprecedented Energy Disruption

00:02:48 – Globalization and Debt Levels

00:05:00 – Equity Valuations Warning

00:07:20 – Market Pricing Liquidity

00:09:01 – Supply Chain Breakdowns

00:10:28 – Disruption Lag Effects

00:12:15 – Oil Policy Miscalculations

00:15:27 – Geopolitical Trade-offs

00:21:50 – Hubris vs Strategy

00:28:33 – China’s Strategic Benefits

00:33:56 – Monetary Order Shift

00:39:52 – Gold’s Reserve Role

00:45:06 – Future Debasement & Gold

00:49:46 – Regional Economic Outlooks

00:56:10 – Commodity Generational Trends

01:00:12 – New section

Guest Links:

X: https://x.com/lukegromen

Website: https://fftt-llc.com/

Luke Gromen began his career in the mid-1990s in Research at Midwest Research before moving over to institutional equity sales and becoming a partner. While in sales, Luke was a founding editor of Midwest’s widely-read weekly summary (“Heard in the Midwest”) for the firm’s clients. He aggregated and combined proprietary research from Midwest with inputs from other sources.

In 2006, Luke left FTN Midwest to become a founding partner of Cleveland Research Company. At CRC, Luke continued to work in sales and edit CRC’s flagship weekly research summary piece (“Straight from the Source”) for the firm’s customers.

In 2014, Luke left Cleveland Research to found FFTT, LLC (“Forest for the Trees”), a macro/thematic research firm catering to institutions and individuals that aggregates a wide variety of macroeconomic, thematic, and sector trends in an unconventional manner to identify investable developing economic bottlenecks.

Luke also provides strategic consulting services for corporate executives. He is a graduate of the University of Cincinnati and received his MBA from Case Western Reserve University and earned the CFA designation in 2003.

Stijn Schmitz welcomes back Colonel Douglas Macgregor to the show. Mr. Macgregor is a retired U.S. Army Colonel and a decorated combat veteran. In this in-depth discussion, Macgregor provides a critical analysis of the current geopolitical situation, focusing on the ongoing conflict in the Persian Gulf and its profound global economic implications. Macgregor argues that the current war has created a catastrophic disruption in global maritime trade, with commercial ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz down by over 90%. This disruption is causing severe economic challenges, including potential famines, skyrocketing energy prices, and significant supply chain disruptions.

He predicts oil prices could reach $150-$200 per barrel, which would have devastating economic consequences. The colonel is particularly critical of the U.S. approach to the conflict, suggesting that the war is primarily driven by Israeli interests rather than vital U.S. strategic objectives. He believes the strategic initiative has passed to Iran, which can absorb more punishment and endure more economic pain than the United States. Macgregor emphasizes the critical importance of resource sovereignty, arguing that countries must now focus on securing their own critical mineral supplies, refining capabilities, and energy infrastructure. He sees this conflict as a transformative moment that will fundamentally reshape global economic and geopolitical relationships, potentially accelerating the de-dollarization process and China’s economic rise.

The discussion highlights the urgent need for a diplomatic solution to stop the conflict, warning that continued military operations will only exacerbate global economic challenges. Macgregor suggests that the world needs to move towards a new approach of international cooperation, focusing on practical economic survival rather than military confrontation. Ultimately, Macgregor believes the current crisis will force nations to rethink their economic strategies, prioritize resource security, and develop more resilient and self-sufficient economic models.

Timestamps:

00:00:00 – Introduction

00:00:40 – Iran Campaign Prediction Review

00:00:40 – Iran War Phases Clarified

00:03:02 – Strait of Hormuz Closure

00:03:44 – Global Economic Catastrophe Warning

00:04:41 – Resource Sovereignty Essential Now

00:06:53 – Markets Manipulation and Warfare

00:09:00 – Revolution in Warfare

00:10:33 – Concealing War Strategic Disaster

00:13:00 – Trump’s Strategic Dilemma

00:16:43 – Commodity Investments Shift

00:20:26 – Gold Reserves De-Dollarization Trends

00:24:00 – War Duration and Oil Disruptions

00:30:10 – China & Oil Refining

00:36:43 – Western Reindustrialization

00:40:30 – US Reorganization Critical Minerals

00:44:20 – Reindustrialization and Direction

00:46:04 – Strategic Metal Concerns

00:49:35 – Concluding Thoughts

Guest Links:

Website: https://douglasmacgregor.com

X: https://x.com/DougAMacgregor

YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@douglasmacgregorTV

Articles: https://breakingdefense.com/author/doug-macgregor/

Substack: https://substack.com/@coloneldoug

Douglas Macgregor is a decorated combat veteran, an author of five books, a PhD, and a defense and foreign policy consultant.

Macgregor was commissioned in the Regular Army in 1976 after 1 year at VMI and 4 years at West Point. In 2004, Macgregor retired with the rank of Colonel. In 2020, the President appointed Macgregor to serve as Senior Advisor to the Secretary of Defense, a post he held until President Trump left office. He holds an MA in comparative politics and a PhD in international relations from the University of Virginia.

Macgregor is widely known inside the U.S., Europe, Israel, Russia, China and Korea for both his leadership in the Battle of 73 Easting, the U.S. Army’s largest tank battle since World War II, and for his ground breaking books on military transformation: Breaking the Phalanx (Praeger, 1997) and Transformation under Fire (Praeger, 2003). Macgregor’s recommendations for change in Force Design and “integrated all arms-all effects” operations have profoundly influenced force development in Israel, Russia and China. In 2010, Macgregor traveled to Seoul, Korea to advise the ROK Ministry of Defense on force design. In 2019, Transformation under Fire was selected by Lt. Gen. Aviv Kohavi, Chief of the Israeli Defense Force (IDF), as the intellectual basis for IDF transformation. His fifth book, Margin of Victory: Five Battles that Changed the Face of Modern War from Naval Institute Press is available in Chinese, as well as, English and will soon appear in Hebrew.

In 28 years of service Macgregor taught in the Department of Social Sciences at West Point, commanded the 1st Squadron, 4th Cavalry, and served as the Director of the Joint Operations Center at SHAPE during the 1999 Kosovo Air Campaign for which he was awarded the Defense Superior Service medal. In January 2002, at Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld’s insistence the USCENTCOM Commander listened to Colonel Macgregor’s concept for the offensive to seize Baghdad. The plan was largely adopted, but assumed no occupation of Iraq by U.S. Forces.

Macgregor has also testified as an expert witness before the Senate and House Armed Services Committees and appeared as a defense analyst on Fox News, CNN, BBC, Sky News and public radio. He is fluent in German.

Stijn Schmitz welcomes Grant Williams to the show. Grant Williams is Financial Advisor, Portfolio & Strategy Advisor, and a Co-Founder of Real Vision. In this wide-ranging discussion, Williams explores the potential transformation of the global monetary system, highlighting significant shifts in geopolitical and economic dynamics. He argues that the world is experiencing a fundamental reordering of monetary power, with the US dollar’s global dominance potentially eroding due to factors like sanctions, increasing government debt, and diminishing international trust.

Williams suggests that gold could emerge as a critical stabilizing asset during this transition, potentially serving as a temporary anchor for a new monetary system. He emphasizes that countries are increasingly losing confidence in the US dollar, with many gradually reducing their dollar reserves and turning to alternative assets like gold. This trend isn’t necessarily a deliberate choice, but a natural response to systemic uncertainties.

The conversation delves into the concept of a “fourth turning” – a generational framework that suggests periodic massive societal transformations. Williams sees the current global environment as consistent with this model, characterized by significant economic and geopolitical upheaval. He believes we’re transitioning from an era of virtual financial abstractions to a world focused on tangible assets and real value.

Regarding investment strategies, Williams recommends a patient approach to commodities. He suggests focusing on essential resources like oil, copper, and other critical minerals, noting that we’re likely entering a long-term commodity bull market. He advises investors to conduct thorough research, understand commodity dynamics, and be prepared for a potentially slower, more deliberate investment landscape.

Williams also cautions against complacency, arguing that the era of guaranteed government bailouts and easy monetary policies may be ending. He encourages investors to re-examine their assumptions, be open to new perspectives, and recognize that historical investment strategies might not work in this emerging economic environment.

Timestamps:

00:00:00 – Introduction

00:01:02 – Monetary Order Shifts

00:05:25 – Commodity Disruptions Impact

00:10:45 – Bailout Trust Erosion

00:13:49 – Gold Performance Analysis

00:16:31 – Global Reserve Changes

00:22:00 – Gold Standard Revival

00:24:10 – Geopolitical Considerations

00:27:00 – Gold & Fiat Printing

00:29:31 – Fourth Turning Cycles

00:35:45 – Commodity Investment Strategies

00:42:00 – Patience in Bull Cycles

00:44:10 – Commodities Outperformance

00:48:33 – North America Resource Risks

00:52:56 – Concluding Thoughts

Guest Links:

Website: https://grant-williams.com

Website: https://vongreyerz.gold/

X: https://x.com/ttmygh

Grant Williams, much to his dismay, has logged over 35 years in finance. During that time, he’s lived and worked in seven major financial centres from London to Sydney, building the kind of network that many others can only dream about.

He began his career in the Japanese equity market in the mid-1980s, before a three-year posting to Tokyo ensured he had a ringside seat as the twin bubbles in equities and real estate burst simultaneously and spectacularly at the end of 1989. After a short stint back in London, Grant relocated once again, this time to New York, where he spent 7 years. Subsequent postings have taken him to Hong Kong, Sydney, Singapore, and the Cayman Islands.

Currently, he is a senior advisor to Von Greyerz in Switzerland, and a portfolio and strategy advisor to Vulpes Investment Management in Singapore.

Back in 2014, Grant’s ambition to bring the most intelligent, engaging, and original people in finance to a wider audience led him to co-found Real Vision, an on-demand internet-based financial media platform.

Grant’s twin Real Vision interview series, In Conversation With… and On The Road raised the bar for financial content – engaging and educating viewers in equal measure and helping them learn the secrets behind a group of extraordinary investors’ success.

Long before Real Vision, however, Grant was guiding people around the fringes of finance with his regular newsletter, Things That Make You Go Hmmm…, a publication which, from humble beginnings as a daily note to a few friends and colleagues, has grown into one of the most widely-read financial publications in the world.

Stijn Schmitz welcomes Don Durrett to the show. Don Durrett is Author, Investor, and Founder of Goldstockdata.com. In this comprehensive interview, Durrett provides deep insights into the current economic landscape and his perspective on gold and silver investments. Durrett argues that the global economic system is fundamentally unsustainable, characterized by what he calls “voodoo economics” and modern monetary theory’s approach of continuous money printing. He believes the United States is trapped in a “doom loop” of increasing debt and economic challenges, which creates a compelling case for precious metals investments.

Drawing from his two decades of investing experience, Durrett explains his investment philosophy using a pyramid approach. He recommends building a foundation with physical metals, then progressively adding ETFs, major mining companies, mid-tier producers, and finally high-risk exploration stocks. His current portfolio contains 165 stocks, with an expectation of generating a seven to ten-fold return. Durrett is particularly bullish on gold, projecting prices potentially reaching $7,000 and expecting the current bull market to continue through 2028. He anticipates a “fair trade” scenario where gold’s value crosses the S&P 500’s value, indicating a significant market transformation. His investment strategy focuses on finding stocks with exceptional leverage and potential, particularly those that could provide 20x returns at higher metal prices.

Regarding the current market, Durrett sees significant opportunities in precious metals miners, especially those with potential for substantial growth. He’s not overly concerned with current production costs, instead focusing on a company’s potential valuation at higher gold and silver prices. He believes many investors and Wall Street are underestimating the potential of gold and silver mining companies. Through his website Goldstockdata.com, Durrett aims to provide investors with comprehensive data and educational resources to help them make informed investment decisions in the precious metals sector.

Timestamps:

00:00:00 – Introduction

00:00:41 – Market Overview & Bull Case

00:03:29 – Economic History and Voodoo Economics

00:08:37 – MMT Origins and Doom Loop

00:11:32 – Current Correction Buy Opportunity

00:12:54 – Geopolitical War Impacts Analysis

00:25:45 – Fear Trade and Gold Targets

00:31:18 – Miners & Bull Markets

00:37:04 – Investment Approaches

00:41:44 – Pain Point and Diversification

00:48:35 – Royalty Companies Evaluation

00:51:23 – Goldstockdata.com Overview

Guest Links:

X: https://x.com/DonDurrett

Website: https://www.goldstockdata.com

Substack: https://dondurrett.substack.com

Amazon Books: https://www.amazon.com.mx/How-Invest-Gold-Silver-Complete/dp/1427650241

Blog Posts: https://seekingalpha.com/author/don-durrett#regular_articles

YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/user/Newager23

Don Durrett received an MBA from California State University Bakersfield in 1990. He has worked in IT-related positions for 20+ years. He has been a gold investor since 1991, with a focus on Junior Mining stocks since 2004. Realizing the value of investing in gold and silver and noticing the lack of available material for first-time investors, Don set out to provide information. First, he wrote a book, How to Invest in Gold & Silver: A Complete Guide with a Focus on Mining Stocks. He followed up the book with a website (www.goldstockdata.com) to provide data, tools, and analysis for gold and silver stock investors. His gold and silver mining stock newsletter is widely regarded as one of the best. He is a frequent guest on financial podcasts and a contributor to SeekingAlpha.com.