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Palisades Gold Radio

Podcast Palisades Gold Radio
Collin Kettell
Podcast by Palisades Gold Radio

Available Episodes

5 of 30
  • Jeffrey Christian: The Tariff Trap – Navigating the Road to Recession and Inflation
    Tom Bodrovics, welcomes back Jeff Christian, Managing Partner of CPM Group, for a thought-provoking episode. The conversation begins around the far-reaching implications of tariffs on markets, industries, and economies. Tariffs are not one-size-fits-all, with their impact hinging on both the specific country and metal involved. Jeff expresses his disdain for tariffs, citing their detrimental effects on economic activity and inflation. The Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930 serves as a cautionary tale, illustrating the devastating consequences on imports, exports, and both the US economy and the global marketplace during the Great Depression. The threat of retaliation could trigger a US recession, while gold and silver might experience heightened demand due to market uncertainty. Tariffs involve importers bearing added costs, instigating inflation, complicating international trade, and affecting base metals. Two potential solutions for government funding - Value Added Tax (VAT) and gold-backed bonds - are examined, yet concerns over regressiveness, economic downturns, and practicality linger. Central banks have turned to gold as a means of securing dollar reserves amid past economic instability under the gold standard. Recent geopolitical developments have prompted some Eastern European countries to stockpile gold for safety against external pressures like Russia. The surge in demand for physical gold within the US is accompanied by a transition from London to New York, giving rise to borrowing and EFP premiums as markets grapple with economic and political uncertainties. Jeff discusses the problems inherent in all financial system and why those problems would also exist under a gold standard. He argues that the Fed has played an important role in reducing the severity of economic contractions. However, he cautions that the only financial system in history that has not failed is this the current one. Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:50 - Tariff Discussion12:10 - Impacts on Metals?14:38 - Various Scenarios19:58 - Inflationary/Recessionary26:03 - Fast Track U.S. Industry?28:13 - Effects on Currencies?31:13 - Recession Outlook?36:00 - Appalling Statistics38:00 - Income Tax & Trump42:07 - A Gold Backed Bond?45:49 - Fed & Depressions52:13 - C.B. Gold Reserves56:39 - CPM Client Concerns?59:55 - EFP Premiums & Supply1:07:48 - Reality & Forecast1:10:00 - Wrap Up Talking Points From This Episode Tariffs' detrimental effects on economic activity and inflation are discussed, with Smoot-Hawley Act as a historical reference. Central banks turn to gold as a hedge against economic instability; some countries stockpile for geopolitical safety. US recession potential and increased demand for gold and silver due to tariff uncertainty. Guest LinksTwitter: https://twitter.com/CPMGroupLLCWebsite: https://www.cpmgroup.com/Questions Email: [email protected] Link: https://www.youtube.com/c/CPMGroup/videos Jeffrey Christian is the Managing Partner of the CPM Group. He is considered one of the most knowledgeable experts on precious metals markets, commodities in general, and financial engineering, using options for hedging and investing purposes. He is the author of Commodities Rising 2006. Jeffrey Christian has been a prominent analyst and advisor on precious metals and commodities markets since the 1970s, with work spanning precious metals, energy markets, base metals, agricultural markets, and economic analysis. The company was founded in 1986, spinning off the Commodities Research Group from Goldman, Sachs & Co and its commodities trading arm, J. Aron & Company. He has advised many of the world's largest corporations and institutional investors on managing their commodities price and market exposures and providing advisory services to the World Bank, United Nations, International Monetary Fund, and numerous governments.
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  • Jaime Carrasco: Gold at the Heart of the New President’s Agenda?
    In this episode on Palisades Gold Radio, Tom Bodrovics welcomes back Jaime Carrasco. Jaime is Senior Portfolio Manager & Senior Investment Advisor at Harbourfront Wealth Management. They discuss the global economic landscape and the significance of gold in today's context. Carrasco expresses his belief that Trump's election and proposed policies could lead to a reset of debt and potential devaluation of US dollars held in treasuries around the world. He emphasizes the importance of understanding history, as previous periods saw significant increases in dividends from gold mining companies during times of monetary instability. Carrasco encourages investors to consider gold as a hedge against inflation, purchasing power loss, and political instability. He also recommends silver mining companies due to their current undervaluation compared to gold. Central banks are increasingly buying gold as a safe haven asset, and Trump's actions are aimed at rebuilding America for Americans, possibly necessitating a full reset. The location of US gold reserves and geopolitical issues like China's policy in Latin America, Europe's response to immigration, and the US-China-Russia alignment are significant sociological factors affecting the global economy. Despite the current uncertainty, Carrasco advocates for a decentralized world where nations can thrive and encourages investors to consider gold, silver, and Bitcoin as financial lifeboats. Talking Points From This Episode0:00 - Introduction0:42 - Current World State3:30 - S&P Bond Chart10:12 - Gold Bonds & Treasury15:45 - Free Cash Flow Chart19:23 - Hyper Financial World26:00 - Gold & Silver31:02 - Silver Volatility34:02 - Shelton & Blockchain36:20 - Resource Sec. Valuations38:13 - 40-Year Shift?42:22 - A Financial Reset?44:52 - Bonds in a Reset46:22 - PMs & Tariff Risks49:18 - A Double Edged Sword51:53 - Trump Implementation53:30 - European Problems56:00 - Negotiating Peace?1:02:09 - Surviving Inflation1:04:10 - Wrap Up Guest Links:Twitter: https://x.com/ijcarrascoLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/carrasco1/Website: https://harbourfrontwealth.com Jaime Carrasco is Senior Portfolio Manager & Senior Investment Advisor at Harbourfront Wealth Management. From 2014-2018 he worked as Director of Wealth Management and Associate Portfolio Manager for ScotiaMcLeod. Before this, he worked for Macquarie Group, CIBC Wood Gundy, BMO Nesbitt Burns, Gordon Capital, and Merrill Lynch. Jaime is a leading Canadian investment professional with 25 years of experience providing wealth management and investment counsel to affluent families, businesses, and institutions. He has garnered a reputation for questioning and challenging the status quo and exploring the most innovative investment strategies. Jaime, whose mother tongue is Spanish, also speaks Italian and French. He completed a BA in political science and economics at the University of Toronto in 1988. While a student, he worked for CS Yacht, a company that built luxury sailboats, thus spending his summers as a skipper for the Canadian establishment members. Jaime credits this experience and having survived sailing through Hurricane Bob in 1991. This experience taught him lessons that have become a metaphor for his financial investment strategies. "Like one's financial wealth, sailing is not about controlling the wind, but rather about adjusting the sails."
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  • Kevin Wadsworth & Patrick Karim: Major Capital Rotation Event into Gold is Just Starting
    In this episode of Palisades Gold Radio, Tom Bodrovics welcomes back Kevin Wadsworth and Patrick Karim for a discussion on the probably capital rotation event coming soon to commodities generally and the stock market. They explore evidence suggesting gold's outperformance over key indicators like US money supply, the dollar index, and major indices such as S&P 500, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, and Russell. Kevin and Patrick highlight that significant shifts occur when sectors underperform gold for extended periods (10-15 years), often leading to substantial drops before recovery. They caution Bitcoin holders about potential underperformance during this rotation, a sector historically correlated with tech stocks. The conversation delves into the historical performance of SPX and NASDAQ versus gold, noting tech stocks and Bitcoin's significant drawdowns but eventual recoveries. Yet, these assets often lag behind gold for prolonged periods, resulting in real losses for investors holding them. The charting duo emphasize the importance of comparing any investment assets to the benchmark of gold, to gauge market shifts. They advocate investing in gold during market confusion and stress understanding that gold is currently in a bull era. Additionally, they discuss the importance of risk management, patience, waiting for clear trends before entering markets, and avoiding concentration in single investments or chasing bottoms and tops of markets. Ultimately, Kevin and Patrick stress patience, a long-term perspective, and applying 'the gold test' before any investment decision. Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction1:20 - Capital Rotation Event2:07 - Capital Rotation Charts12:57 - Equities Vs. Gold14:18 - Bitcoin Correlations22:00 - Killing Narratives24:40 - Ratio Analysis & Trends28:34 - Gold Vs. Everything32:24 - DXY Vs. CPI Chart38:48 - A Technical Approach44:18 - Public Debt Analysis48:23 - Miners & Speculation52:04 - Most Commodities?54:08 - Risks - Tops/Bottoms57:57 - Technicals & Analysis1:04:53 - Entry Points & M.A.1:10:09 - Uranium Miners1:12:06 - Wrap Up Guest Links:Twitter: https://x.com/NorthStarChartsWebsite: https://NorthStarBadCharts.comYouTube: https://youtube.com/c/NorthstarCharts Kevin Wadsworth is a seasoned chart trader with over 15 years of experience and a strong following on social media. With a background in meteorology spanning over 30 years, he has worked in various professional roles, including military and civilian weather forecasting. Currently serving as a Civil Contingency Advisor, Kevin provides advanced warning and guidance for life-threatening weather events and collaborates with emergency response teams. His interest in the financial world was sparked by a colleague in the early 2000s, and he became particularly fascinated after the 2008 financial crash. Drawing parallels between weather forecasting and predicting market movements, Kevin emphasizes the importance of gathering evidence from various sources, much like assessing multiple weather models. His approach focuses on presenting clear, unbiased charts based on the weight of evidence, rather than personal bias. Kevin's expertise lies in distilling complex information into actionable insights, whether it's forecasting weather patterns or market trends. Guest Links:Twitter: https://twitter.com/badcharts1Website: https://NorthStarBadCharts.comYouTube: https://youtube.com/c/NorthstarCharts Patrick Karim is a proprietary capital manager and chart trader since 2006. Patrick's background in commerce, psychology, and an ongoing career in systems engineering has allowed him to evaluate trading scenarios systematically. His psychology background helps him understand the human factor: overcoming stress, which is mostly responsible for maintaining a successful career.
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  • Trader Ferg: All Roads Lead to Inflation
    In this Palisades interview, host Tom welcomes Trader Ferg, a full-time trader and author of the Trader Ferg Substack, discussing major narrative pivots in the energy market, focusing on topics like electric vehicles versus plug-in hybrids, net-zero projections, China's policy changes on renewable energy subsidies, battery technology shifts from lithium-ion to sodium-ion batteries, platinum group metals, geopolitical impacts like coal's comeback in Germany, and investment implications. Ferg also delves into the transformative potential of deep learning AI models, expressing excitement about their game-changing impact on technology and markets. Among these innovations, Ferg points to DeepSeek, an open-source AI model that is disrupting the tech industry and challenging major companies like NVIDIA, Microsoft, Google, and Facebook, potentially leading to significant declines in their valuations. Ferg also discusses platinum's unique market dynamics, noting its unpredictable demand and jurisdictional risks, particularly in key producing regions like South Africa. He emphasizes that new platinum supply is expected to remain limited after 2030. Declining production rates are also affecting industries such as oil and uranium. Despite these challenges, Ferg advises investors to maintain patience and position themselves strategically for future demand. Ferg identifies under-invested sectors, particularly the U.S. oil and gas industry, as opportunities for growth. He argues that while drilling activity will likely increase during Trump's second term, supply numbers have been overestimated, and demand remains steady but not overly strong. Additionally, Trump's plans to refill the Strategic Petroleum Reserve could create further demand. Ferg expresses his bullish outlook on oil plays in the market, despite current low prices. In conclusion, Ferg's investment strategy focuses on identifying major narrative shifts, understanding supply decline rates, and positioning investments to capitalize on demand when markets price it appropriately. Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction1:00 - Narratives & Pivots5:30 - Coal & Green Transitions?10:48 - Tariffs & Chinese EVs14:46 - China's A.I. Model21:04 - Sector Valuations?25:39 - Platinum Supply31:48 - Drill Baby Drill!37:03 - Trump & Inflation Risks42:00 - Gold, Rates, & Treasuries46:00 - Gold ETF Holdings48:43 - Resource Investment Risk54:00 - Derisking & Hated Sectors56:56 - Resource Costs & Inflation59:00 - Wrap Up Guest Links:Substack: https://traderferg.substack.com/X: https://x.com/trader_ferg Trader Ferg is a Full-time trader for going on 8+ years now. He has a habit of hanging out in hated corners of the market that are considered uninvestable. He enjoys sharing his research and thoughts about possible trades and markets.
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  • Vince Lanci: China’s Gold Buying is Back in a Big Way
    Tom Bodrovics welcomes back Professor Vince Lanci, MBA Finance and Publisher of the Goldfix Substack, for a discussion on polticis and recent global buying patterns particulary in China. Specifically the significant 'Chinese whale', Zhang Kai Futures. Despite public purchases, China's government has also bought gold clandestinely through other less obvious channels. Goldman Sachs updated projections reveal ongoing gold buying by China, causing market rallies and awareness. Vince explores Exchange for Physicals (EFPs) and premium spreads in bullion banks, discussing tariff anxiety's potential impact on global physical metal flows. The EFP mechanism links London's physical market to New York's financial center, but tariffs may influence production countries and traders' choices. Gold prices are expected to reach new all-time highs soon. Vince touches on tariffs' primary impact on silver in the U.S., as a significant importer compared to its gold production. Furthermore, they discuss America's potential need to become a manufacturing economy again and Trump's plans involving factories, jobs, and exports. The challenge lies in financing this project with China no longer buying U.S. debt. Trump proposes reducing the deficit through energy cost reductions and weakening the dollar through tariffs, but that approach could lead to inflation and deficit issues. Vince and Tom discuss potential changes in government funding, specifically regarding income taxes versus tariffs. Trump intends to negotiate with other countries using tariffs as leverage for domestic job creation and foreign investment. Vince emphasizes the importance of addressing economic conflicts to prevent escalation into full-blown conflicts. Timestamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:43 - China's Gold Whale12:38 - EFP Premiums & Spread25:00 - Supply & Net Imports28:24 - Silver Prices??34:48 - Manufacturing USA43:38 - Driving Dollar Lower47:00 - Tariffs & Income Tax54:54 - Historic Analogies58:03 - Economic World War1:00:47 - Tensions & Risks1:02:40 - Wrap Up Talking Points From This Episode China's government buys gold publicly and clandestinely through various back channels, including commercial banks and SAFE. Tariffs could significantly impact physical metal flows by influencing where silver is sourced and it's country of origin. Trump plans to revive American manufacturing through tariffs and changes in income tax. Guest Links:Website: https://vblgoldfix.substack.com/Twitter: https://x.com/SorenthekLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/vincentlanci/Boobs & Bullion: https://x.com/boobsbullion Vince Lanci, a seasoned finance professional, has served as Managing Partner at Echobay Partners LLC since 2008. His expertise spans over three decades in metals trading, option analysis, and technology development. In recent years, Mr. Lanci's insights have been sought after by industry legends. He was invited to be a resident expert on precious metals and option analysis for Larry Benedict's Opportunistic Trader project. In 2017, he co-authored a paper on Energy Volatility with Professor Robert Biolsi at the University of Connecticut. Prior to his current role, from 2004 to 2008, Mr. Lanci served as Co-Head of Metals & Energy Trading for CiS Options LLC. During this tenure, he managed the long-short and volatility arbitrage portfolios for the parent Limited Partnership fund. From 1993 to 2003, Mr. Lanci was the proprietor of Berard Capital LLC, where he led a team of option marketmakers. His earlier career included stints at Lehman Bros and Cooper Neff from 1987 to 1993, providing him with a solid foundation in finance. In 2000, Mr. Lanci co-founded Whentech (originally named Upperhand Technologies LLC) with David Wender. As chief architect of the "Pit-Trader" user interface logic, he played a pivotal role in the company's inception. Mr. Lanci's thought leadership extends beyond his professional engagements.
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