Palisades Gold Radio

Stijn Schmitz welcomes Rory Johnston to the show. Rory Johnston is a Commodity Market Research Specializing in Oil and Gas. Johnston describes an unprecedented period of volatility in oil markets, where the supply-demand balance swung radically within a single month. Following a ceasefire in the Strait of Hormuz, a surge of previously stranded tankers created a temporary mini-glut, flipping market structures from severe backwardation into contango. However, this glut proved fleeting as inbound empty tankers, initially driven by the most risk-tolerant owners, have dried up, leaving Gulf loadings constrained by available shipping capacity. Consequently, supply is tightening aggressively again.

The most significant factor absorbing the supply shock is China, which swung its crude imports down by five million barrels per day without clear economic damage domestically. Johnston explores speculative explanations, including massive refined product stock releases, a coal-to-petrochemical feedstock switch, or a geopolitical understanding with the US. He also suggests China may be using the crisis as a successful dry run for weathering a potential blockade in a Taiwan conflict scenario. This swing, totaling roughly half a billion barrels, dwarfs the collective releases from IEA member states. Beyond crude, the refined products market, particularly diesel, is critically tight. Diesel crack spreads have soared to staggering levels, driven by drone attacks damaging Russian refineries, prior damage in the Middle East, and China slashing product exports. Johnston clarifies that strategic petroleum reserves function as a supply boost, not passive inventory, and that operational tank minimums at hubs like Cushing primarily affect regional price differentials to discourage exports, not trigger infinite crude spikes.

He concludes that the overriding vulnerability is refining capacity, which is easy to target and hard to defend, making North American facilities a potentially valuable geopolitical safe haven in the current drone warfare era.

Timestamps:

00:00:00 – Introduction

00:00:29 – Guest Rory Johnson Introduction

00:01:06 – Energy Supply Demand Dynamics

00:04:30 – Mini-Glut and Market Flip

00:07:45 – Hormuz Traffic and Tankers

00:10:44 – China Import Swing Explained

00:15:00 – China Inventory Releases Analyzed

00:20:45 – Western SPR and Inventories

00:25:30 – Commercial vs Strategic Stocks

00:29:00 – Global Oil Deficit Calculation

00:34:00 – Refining Capacity Tightness

00:42:00 – Product Shortages and Prices

00:48:00 – Refinery Investment Outlook

00:52:50 – Concluding Thoughts

Guest Links:

Substack: https://www.commoditycontext.com/

X: https://x.com/Rory_Johnston

Rory Johnston is a Toronto-based oil market researcher, the founder of Commodity Context, a lecturer at the University of Toronto’s Munk School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, host of the Oil Ground Up podcast, as well as a Fellow with both the Canadian Global Affairs Institute and the Payne Institute for Public Policy at the Colorado School of Mines.

He is a leading voice on oil market analysis, advising institutional investors, global policy makers, and corporate decision makers. His views are regularly quoted in major international media including the Financial Times, New York Times, Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg News, Reuters, BNN Bloomberg, CBC, and Financial Post, and he frequently appears on numerous market and industry podcasts (e.g., Bloomberg’s Odd Lots, Hidden Forces, etc.).

Prior to founding Commodity Context, Rory led commodity economics research at Scotiabank where he set the bank’s energy and metals price forecasts, advised the bank’s executives and clients, and sat on the bank’s senior credit committee for commodity-exposed sectors.

In this special multi-guest episode filmed on the floor of the 2026 Rule Symposium, industry veterans share contrarian views amid a healthy pullback in precious metals. Gold and silver sit 30-50% off highs, creating “fire sale” prices for quality names while central banks quietly stack physical gold and currencies face ongoing debasement.

13 Featured experts: Adrian Day, Rick Rule, Brien Lundin, Dr. Nomi Prins, Tavi Costa, Jeff Phillips, Matthew Piepenberg, Robert Quartermain, Brent Cook, Rob McEwen, Sean Roosen, Shawn Khunkhun, and Willem Middelkoop

Key takeaways:
Best setup in years: ultra-low valuations, extreme negative sentiment, cashed-up juniors & developers in safe jurisdictions.
Focus areas: pure-play silver miners, copper (supply deficit + electrification), uranium, permitted gold developers, royalty/prospect generators.
Rick Rule: invest in yourself first—knowledge + relationships beat hot tips.
Long-term secular bull remains intact; producers generate massive free cash flow at current prices; expect M&A.
Volatility is normal—buy quality while fear is high. Perfect primer for resource investors seeking high-conviction ideas from the conference.

Find Out More About Palisades Goldcorp, Canada’s Leading Junior Resource Investment Company:
► Website: https://palisades.ca

Timestamps:
00:00:00 – Introduction
00:00:35 – Rick Rule – Invest in Yourself
00:04:55 – Brent Cook – Quality Projects
00:07:20 – Jeff Phillips – Healthy Pullback
00:09:44 – Dr. Nomi Prins – Silver & Confidence
00:12:14 – Matt Pipenburg – Buying Opportunities
00:16:54 – Robert Quartermain – Dakota Gold
00:20:03 – Rob McEwen – Macro Commodities Outlook
00:24:45 – Sean Roosen – Liquidity & Energy – Hard Assets
00:30:09 – Shawn Khunkhun – Good Valuations
00:31:52 – Willem Middelkoop – The Big Picture
00:35:00 – Tavi Costa – Rate Hikes & Geopolitical Drivers
00:39:00 – Adrian Day – Sentiment & Opportunity
00:42:09 – Brien Lundin – Debt, Deficits, Metals & Mining
00:43:05 – Rick Rule Wrap Up

Stijn Schmitz comes to you from the Rule Symposium in Boca Raton, Florida. Rick Rule begins by emphasizing the importance of investing in oneself through knowledge and relationships, arguing that this foundational step precedes successful capital allocation. He notes that the easy money in commodities has been made, but the “sure money” lies ahead, particularly in gold. Rule explains that gold maintains purchasing power, having increased at 8% compounded nominally in US dollars over 26 years, while he predicts the US dollar could lose 75% of its purchasing power in the next decade. He highlights that precious metals currently represent only 0.5% of US savings assets, far below the four-decade mean of 2%, suggesting a potential fourfold demand increase if reversion occurs.

Turning to oil, Rule describes a structural supply deficit due to chronic underinvestment in sustaining capital, amounting to roughly a trillion and a half dollars. He contrasts this with temporary disruptions, warning that the coming shortage will require massive capital input and cannot be quickly resolved. On silver, he shares his recent speculative strategy: he sold silver after a hyperbolic price spike, reallocating to physical gold, oil stocks, and silver equities, which he views as offering better risk-reward profiles. Rule also discusses the mining sector, cautioning that rising input costs

Timestamps:

00:00:00 – Introduction

00:00:25 – Investing in Yourself

00:02:10 – Contrarian Investing Approach

00:03:50 – Gold Purchasing Power

00:06:00 – Gold Market Share Reversion

00:09:20 – Conditions to Sell Gold

00:11:00 – 1970s Inflation Parallels

00:12:30 – Rising Mining Costs

00:15:20 – Palisades Gold Corp

00:16:20 – Junior Mining Optionality

00:21:00 – Silver Speculation Strategy

00:24:50 – Silver Miners Valuation

00:26:20 – Oil Underinvestment Issues

00:37:50 – BattleBank Services

00:43:40 – Concluding Thoughts

Guest Links:

X: https://x.com/@realrickrule

Website: https://ruleinvestmentmedia.com

YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@RuleInvestmentMedia

Classroom: https://ruleclassroom.com

Battle Bank: https://battlebank.com

Rick Rule has dedicated his entire adult life to many aspects of natural resources securities investing. Besides the knowledge and experience gained in a long and focused career, he has a global network of contacts in the natural resources and finance sectors.

Mr. Rule is a frequent speaker at industry conferences and is regularly interviewed for radio, television, print, and online media outlets concerning natural resources investment and industry topics. Prominent natural resources-oriented newsletters and advisories frequently quote him. Mr. Rule and his team have expertise in many resource sectors, including agriculture, alternative energy, forestry, oil and gas, mining, and water.

Stijn Schmitz welcomes Dr. Nomi Prins back to the show. Dr. Prins is the Founder of Prinsights Global and she’s a regular writer on her Substack. The discussion opened with Dr. Prins identifying the most significant investment opportunities in a market she sees as distorted by exaggerated paper selling. She argued that silver presents the greatest potential due to a historic disconnect between its heavily traded paper price and a persistent six-year physical supply deficit. Despite price volatility driven by algorithmic and ETF trading, demand for physical ounces from industry, particularly from Asia for solar applications, remains insatiable. Pure-play silver miners, which remain highly profitable even at current price levels, are therefore positioned as attractive opportunities.

The conversation shifted to uranium, where a different dynamic prevails. Uranium prices have held a new, high platform level due to utility companies securing long-term contracts well above the spot price, a sector lacking a significant futures market. Consequently, uranium miners have underperformed the commodity itself, creating a clear re-rating opportunity for stocks. For gold, Dr. Prins highlighted that its bull case is supported by sustained central bank buying, particularly in Asia and the Middle East, as nations seek independence from dollar-based monetary policy. She noted that over the long term, gold has significantly outperformed inflation, purchasing power, and treasuries. With major producers sitting on large cash reserves and facing their own supply constraints, well-managed junior developers in favorable jurisdictions with high-grade assets are becoming prime targets for acquisition, offering significant upside.

On the oil and gas sector, Dr. Prins observed that markets have normalized to a stable trading range after war-related spikes. This stability, combined with the ongoing need to replenish depleted strategic petroleum reserves globally, supports current price levels. She pointed to specific opportunities in regions like South America, where companies are producing the right grade of crude, often offering high dividends to supply U.S. refineries historically reliant on heavier oil. Her firm’s strategy focuses on identifying these macro-driven distortions and vetting junior companies through rigorous analysis of management and jurisdictional stability.

Timestamps:

00:00:00 – Introduction

00:00:36 – Market Opportunity Overview

00:02:49 – Uranium Investment Opportunities

00:04:25 – Silver Supply Gap Analysis

00:09:18 – Gold Market Dynamics

00:11:34 – Central Banks and Gold

00:13:13 – Gold Performance vs Inflation

00:14:50 – Junior Miner Selection Criteria

00:15:54 – Oil Market Normalization

00:19:22 – Oil Quality and Investments

00:21:03 – Recommendations

Guest Links:

X: https://x.com/nomiprins

Website: https://nomiprins.com

Substack: https://prinsights.substack.com

Dr. Nomi Prins as a Wall Street insider and outspoken advocate for economic reform, Nomi Prins is a leading authority on how the widespread impact of financial systems continues to affect our daily lives. She has spent decades analyzing and investigating economic and financial events at the ground level and meeting with those that shape the world’s geopolitical-economic framework. She continues to break stories by conducting independent research, writing best-selling books, and traversing the globe to share her knowledge and demystify the world of money.

Before becoming a renowned journalist and public speaker, Nomi reached the upper echelons of the financial world where she worked as a managing director at Goldman Sachs, ran the international analytics group as a senior managing director at Bear Stearns in London, was a strategist at Lehman Brothers and an analyst at the Chase Manhattan Bank. During her time on Wall Street, she grew increasingly aware of and discouraged by the unethical practices that permeated the banking industry. Eventually, she decided enough was enough and became an investigative journalist to shed light on the ways that financial systems are manipulated to serve the interests of an elite few at the expense of everyone else.

Stijn Schmitz welcomes Tavi Costa back to the show. Tavi Costa is the Founder and CEO of Azuria Capital. Tavi outlines a bullish macro view for precious metals, arguing that the recent sell-off in gold and silver presents a compelling accumulation opportunity within a secular bull market. He notes that gold itself is down 25 to 30 percent, while quality producers have corrected 40 to 50 percent, leaving them technically oversold. He favors large, well-established miners such as Agnico Eagle and Newmont as liquid ways to play this window over the next six to twelve months. Silver is also in an accumulation phase, though he cautions against fixating on a single price entry point. Copper, which has remained resilient near all-time highs, is expected to surge dramatically once current headwinds fade, offering significant operating leverage in the mining equities.

Costa emphasizes the strategic role of energy in a resource portfolio, describing it as an efficient hedge for metals investors. He highlights the historically low weighting of energy in the S&P 500 and points to structural demand drivers like data centers, electrification, and onshoring. Natural gas, in his view, is the only near-term solution to meet this demand, given the longer timelines for nuclear or renewables. He sees opportunities in midstream assets and in Latin America, where excess energy supply could attract strategic partnerships. The conversation also touches on agricultural commodities, which Costa believes are consolidating in a pattern similar to oil before its breakout.

Regarding critical minerals, Costa expresses skepticism, calling the sector a “disease” marked by misallocated capital. He warns that institutional money chasing small markets like rare earths often overlooks poor business fundamentals, and he advises focusing instead on copper, gold, and silver, which offer clear structural demand and supply constraints. He distills his investment approach into three pillars: metals and mining, energy, and Latin America. Costa is currently in the process of launching a fund and shares his research on Substack, with a formal announcement expected soon.

Timestamps:

00:00:00 – Introduction

00:00:29 – Current Market Opportunities

00:01:04 – Gold and Silver Outlook

00:02:53 – Finding Quality Opportunities

00:06:55 – Oil & Gas Potential

00:09:30 – Natural Gas Demand Drivers

00:12:07 – Critical Minerals

00:14:50 – Copper Highs & Outlook

00:17:17 – Concluding Thoughts

Guest Links:

X: https://x.com/tavicosta

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/otavio-tavi-costa-76368628

Substack: https://tavicosta.substack.com

Otavio (“Tavi”) Costa is the Founder and CEO of Azuria Capital LLC. He invented a macro model that identifies the current stage of the U.S. economic cycle through a combination of 16 factors.

His research is regularly featured in financial publications such as Bloomberg, The Wall Street Journal, CCN, Financial Post, The Globe and Mail, Real Vision, and Reuters. Tavi is a native of São Paulo, Brazil, and fluent in Portuguese, Spanish, and English. Before joining Crescat, he worked with the underwriting of financial products and international business at Braservice, a large logistics company in Brazil.

Tavi graduated cum laude from Lindenwood University in St. Louis with a B.A. degree in Business Administration with an emphasis in Finance and a minor in Spanish. Tavi played NCAA Division 1 tennis for Liberty University.