Palisades Gold Radio

Tom Bodrovics hosts both Bob Thompson from Raymond James and Larry McDonald, creator of the Bear Traps Report, for a discussion on inflation trends in the G7 economies. They emphasize the unprecedented $16 trillion debt increase since 2008 due to fiscal and monetary responses to crises, which has led to significant inflationary pressures, particularly in energy costs. They argue that the market's response is putting pressure on long-term bonds and the US currency, potentially requiring a hard asset tie for stability. They also discuss the implications of a strong US dollar for Trump's economic goals, with some factions favoring a weaker dollar. A strong dollar negatively affects U.S. manufacturing exports, hurts companies with sales outside the United States, and forces the Fed to buy bonds, potentially leading to inflation and an economy weakening. Central banks are increasing their gold purchases and shifting away from US treasuries due to sanctions and mistrust in the US government, which could negatively impact the dollar's strength. Gold stocks have underperformed the S&P 500, but may offer asymmetrical returns as interest rates remain low and inflation normalizes at a higher level. They discuss historical gold investing regimes and the transition back towards the one where real rates are favorable for gold. They emphasize the importance of recognizing trends, being ahead of the power curve, and investing accordingly. The possibility of the Federal Reserve's inflation target shifting towards 3% is discussed, which could benefit certain investment portfolios in sectors like industrial, metals, materials, oil, and gas. Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:48 - Fed & Inflation10:18 - Financial Conditions?13:13 - Misplaced Optimism?18:13 - Strong Dollar & Trump?24:56 - C.B. Gold Buying31:30 - Sectors & Momentum34:30 - Entry Points & Markets36:37 - Bull Markets42:03 - Strong/Weak Bull42:54 - Energy Demand & Silver49:03 - Rates & Fed Targets52:30 - Stocks Vs Commodities55:17 - Mining Clock Cycle57:18 - Concluding Thoughts1:01:13 - Wrap Up Talking Points From This Episode Unprecedented debt increase contributes to inflationary pressures, particularly in energy costs. Strong US dollar negatively impacts U.S. manufacturing exports and forces Fed bond buying. Gold stocks offer asymmetrical returns as interest rates remain low and inflation normalizes. Bob Thompson Links:Twitter: https://x.com/bobthompsonrjWebsite: https://www.raymondjames.ca/Website: https://bobthompson.ca When Bob Thompson started university, he thought he was headed towards a career in medicine. He graduated from Simon Fraser University with a Bachelor of Science (BSc), but with his family facing financial adversity, achieving financial security became first an interest and then a passion. Bob is now a Certified Investment Manager and Accredited Investment Fiduciary professional with more than 20 years of experience in the financial services industry. Over the course of his career, Bob has established himself as a respected portfolio manager and one of Canada's leading authorities on customized investments. With an in-depth knowledge and scientific approach to financial markets, Bob and his team help institutions and select clients to meet their specialized financial goals. He has won numerous awards for portfolio management, and has established himself as a sought after media resource and industry speaker. He is the author of Stock Market Superstars: Secrets of Canada's Top Stock Pickers, a "must-read" for both investors and portfolio managers. His perspective and insights into markets have been featured in Maclean's, the Globe and Mail and the Financial Post, and he is a popular guest on Bloomberg Canada, Business News Network and CBC News, among others. Bob is also a frequent guest speaker at international investment conferences on portfolio strategy and in specialized investments.

Tom Bodrovics welcomes a new guest Laurent Lequeu to the show. Laurent is an indpendent financial consultant and publisher of the Macro Butler Substack. Togther they delve into macroeconomic themes for the year ahead, focusing primarily on the business cycle and its impact on the US economy. The U.S., currently experiencing an inflationary boom due to low interest rates and increased government spending, is expected to face changes with the incoming presidency of Trump, particularly in terms of tariffs which could shift the economy from a boom phase to possibly an inflationary bust. Using ratios such as S&P to oil, gold to treasuries, and S&P to gold, they evaluate the current economic status in the U.S. and globally. However, potential tariffs could lead to higher costs for U.S. corporations and lower consumer confidence, impacting equity markets and the overall economy. Despite being in a potentially stagflationary environment by 2022, the US may face an inflationary bust in 2025, with economic trends like unemployment, manufacturing, and inflationary numbers having global implications. Geopolitical events such as U.S.-Russia relations, tensions in the Middle East, and potential war in Asia could also surprise many. Laurent suggests investing in equities and gold with a significant portion allocated to physical gold during uncertain economic conditions, while managing cash through short-term investment-grade US dollars bonds. He predicts higher treasury yields this year and suggested looking at commodities' performance relative to gold for potential re-ratings. Laurent expresses doubts about Bitcoin's utility for preserving wealth and encouraged risk management and minimizing drawdowns for investors in the coming years. They also touch upon China's economic situation, the U.S. remaining the strongest major economy due to energy independence and relative political stability. He suggests investing in sectors like oil and gas, aerospace and defense, and perhaps Canadian gold miners should the regulatory environment improve. Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:39 - Different Perspective2:28 - U.S. Business Cycle5:30 - Tariff Proposals7:22 - Stagflation & Trends10:28 - Conflicts & Risks14:33 - Powell & Trump18:34 - Fed & Liquidity19:40 - Global Econ. Outlook22:44 - Which Assets When24:52 - Gold Equities?29:00 - Gold & Currencies31:44 - Golden Ratios?33:30 - Uranium & Energy?36:56 - Bitcoin/Gold Ratio40:16 - Wrap Up Talking Points From This Episode US economy facing potential shift from boom to bust due to Trump's tariffs. Investing in equities, gold, and short-term bonds during uncertain economic times. US to face stagflationary environment by 2022, possible inflationary burst in 2025. Guest Links:Substack: https://themacrobutler.substack.com/X: https://x.com/TheMacroButler Laurent Lequeu, an independent financial consultant based in Singapore, specializes in managing wealth for High-Net-Worth Individuals. With a career spanning West and East, Laurent analyzes the world through the lens of the business cycle and its impact on asset class performance in a multi polar world. He also shares his insights through The Macro Butler, a global macro newsletter launched in January 2024.

Tom Bodrovics welcomes back Tom Luongo, Tom is the producer of the Gold, Goats and Guns newsletter and blog, editor at Newsmax Ultimate Wealth Report, and contributor to Financial Intelligence Report. The Tom's discuss the significant developments during Trump's first term, judge appointments, and Europe's economic instability. Luongo reflects on the impact of Trump's appointment of conservative judges and the Democrats' efforts to maintain control in certain jurisdictions. He discusses Europe's economic collapse, with concerns about the Euro's free fall, instability in the UK, US-German bond spreads, and tensions between the US and Russia. Luongo discusses Trump's options regarding a weaker dollar through protection tariffs, deregulation, and lower cost of capital. He explores market volatility due to central bank interventions and speculates on the implications of inflation, political tensions, and changes in power in Canada. Regarding oil, Luongo critiques undervalued prices and their impact on various economic aspects. He shares his thoughts on Judy Shelton's idea involving gold as collateral on the yield curve as a potential solution to the country's fiscal crisis. Luongo encourages listeners to focus on solutions rather than problems and discusses differences in economic policies under Powell-led Federal Reserves between Trump and Harris administrations. He expects that 2025 will be a new type of crazy. Timestamp References:0:00 - Introduction1:00 - Trumps 2nd Term11:07 - Euro Collapse Effects20:02 - Trump & Weaker Dollar27:56 - Dollar Assets & Markets39:46 - Views On America49:00 - DOGE & Reforming Gov't59:20 - Commodity Nations1:05:35 - Inflation & Trump?1:18:00 - Powell's Actions1:21:18 - Restructuring NATO?1:25:24 - Peak Oil & Incentives1:31:56 - Judy Shelton & Gold1:36:50 - Gold Redemptions?1:44:55 - Derailing Trump1:51:29 - 2025 A New Crazy1:55:00 - Wrap Up Talking Points From This Episode Trump's first term marked by conservative judge appointments influencing the court system. Europe's economic instability causing concerns, potential impact on US investors, and tensions with Russia. Tom advocates for America to save money through reducing overseas spending, closing military bases, and accepting losses. Guest Links:Website: https://tomluongo.meTwitter: https://twitter.com/TFL1728Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/GoldGoatsNGunsCornerstone Forum: https://www.showpass.com/cornerstone25/ Tom Luongo is a Former Research Chemist, Amateur Dairy Goat Farmer, Anarcho-Libertarian, and Obstreperous Austrian Economist whose work can be found on sites like ZeroHedge, Lewrockwell.com, Bitcoin Magazine, and Newsmax Media. Professionally, he has spent a lot of his waking hours inside various analytic laboratories testing your water and soil for contaminants. He watched an industry be created by government fiat and destroyed in the same manner. He ran for Florida House once and got 2.7% of the vote on Guy Fawkes Day and says, "I've since grown up a lot." Then he spent 5+ years solving the puzzle of an electroless Nickel-Boron coating that has intriguing wear-resistance properties. Too bad, the coating was better than the company's business model. Today, he is the publisher of the Gold Goats ‘n Guns Newsletter, in which he attempts to connect the false narratives of geopolitics to viable long-term investment theses. As for politics, his position is well-known through his past writings at Lewrockwell.com, Seeking Alpha, and the aforementioned erstwhile blogs. To sum up: "Individuals are the only people with enough knowledge about their own lives to have a hope of making the right decisions for themselves, and no amount of guidance or central planning can help that process along." He built the house he lives in and raises goats and milks them. In short, he says, "I'm a libertarian who distrusts all human organizations larger than a two-handed game of poker." Lastly,

Tom Bodrovics welcomes back long-term contrarian investor and entrepreneur Simon Mikhailovich for a discussion centered around first principles, focusing on precious metals, commodities, economics, geopolitics, trade, and monetary matters. The conversation begins with the acknowledgement of high levels of uncertainty and complexity, making accurate forecasts challenging. Mikhailovich distinguishes between speculating on precious metals versus using them as a reserve asset. For speculation, market drivers are pertinent. However, for gold as a reserve asset, its unique property as the only financial asset without a counterparty makes it inversely correlated to confidence and trust in other people's promises. The conversation touches upon the concept of the fourth turning and where we are in this cycle. Mikhailovich underscores the significance of understanding current problems before predicting future demand for gold. He also discusses how post-World War II arrangements have led to the United States' hegemonic role economically and militarily, and the start of financialization and globalization. Mikhailovich raises concerns about understated inflation and its potential impact on real economic growth or contraction. He also highlights the lack of clear guidance from Federal Reserve Chairman Jay Powell in navigating through uncertain conditions. They explore the winners and losers of the global economy, with tactical gains for Wall Street investors, technology industries, and certain countries like China. However, working people have been losing due to job outsourcing. Mikhailovich mentions China's growing power and desire for independence from the United States as potential challenges to the current economic order. The conversation delves into geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, with borders becoming less inviolable after World War One and World War Two. The Suez Canal's declining traffic and resulting increased costs serve as an example of inflationary pressures. Mikhailovich discusses the significance of gold as a financial asset and its increasing demand, particularly from China and other countries, as a response to a loss of confidence in the global financial system. He also mentions the relationship between digital currencies like Bitcoin and the US dollar, suggesting that regulatory actions could impact their independence from the dollar and the broader financial system. Lastly, Simon emphasizes understanding the complexities, considering various data points, focusing on resiliency, and looking at first principles. Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:44 - Uncertainties & Metals4:22 - The Fourth Turning9:00 - Statistics & Reality17:00 - Wars, Rumors & Borders26:47 - Economic Fragility33:55 - Gold & Eastern Buying38:30 - Trump & U.S. Dollar41:18 - Gold & Confidence50:07 - Trump & Bond Markets53:56 - World Has Changed1:03:02 - Inflation Vs. Panic1:05:20 - Socialism & Competence1:10:02 - A Serious Situation1:13:13 - Wrap Up Talking Points From This Episode Gold as a reserve asset is inversely correlated to confidence in other people's promises. Understanding current problems before predicting future demand for gold is crucial. Concerns about understated inflation, lack of clear guidance from Jay Powell, and China's growing power pose challenges. Guest Links:Twitter: https://c.com/S_MikhailovichWebsite: https://www.bullionreserve.com Simon A. Mikhailovich is a co-founder, lead manager of The Bullion Reserve, and a director. Mr. Mikhailovich is an entrepreneur and contrarian investor who predicted and profited from the financial crises of 2000 and 2008. Before co-founding TBR in 2014, Mr. Mikhailovich co-founded Eidesis Capital, a special situations investment firm. Between 1998 and 2014, the Eidesis team deployed over $2.5B of capital through special opportunity funds focused on high yield corporate bonds and loans, credit derivatives, distressed CDOs and MBS, and gold.