A podcast about risk, probability, philosophy and data science.Become a supporter of this podcast: https://www.spreaker.com/podcast/the-logic-of-risk--6469023/s...
LOR12: Keynes, Jeffreys, Jaynes and finally Kolmogorov
In this episode, we conclude our overview of the various schools of thought on probability.We begin by examining the logicist perspectives of Keynes, Jeffreys, and Jaynes before transitioning to Kolmogorov's axiomatic definition.We will briefly review the three basic axioms of probability and explain why the axiomatic approach is not a definition in the traditional sense, but rather a framework that transcends the objectivist–subjectivist debate.Are you ready to take the risk?Become a supporter of this podcast: https://www.spreaker.com/podcast/the-logic-of-risk--6469023/support.
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22:01
LOR11: Probability as logic, and the logic of probability.
This episode introduces logicism, examining how modern logic informs our understanding of probability. Can logicism be considered as a bridge between probabilistic objectivism and subjectivism? What did Wittgenstein think about probability?Is probability the new logic of science?Become a supporter of this podcast: https://www.spreaker.com/podcast/the-logic-of-risk--6469023/support.
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17:10
LOR10: Fighting the hydra of frequentism, or why subjectivism is preferable
In this episode, we delve into subjective probability by drawing on Bruno de Finetti’s ideas. We show how viewing probability as a fair bet may lead to coherent estimates. We discuss how de Finetti challenges the circular and limiting nature of the classical and frequentist definitions, arguing that personal judgment, informed by data, experts, and even intuition, is key.We also covers advanced ideas like Jeffrey's radical probabilism, ultimately emphasizing the need for continuous learning and humility in decision-making. Are you ready to take the risk?Become a supporter of this podcast: https://www.spreaker.com/podcast/the-logic-of-risk--6469023/support.
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14:40
LOR9: Probability does not exist, or the subjectivist approach
We introduce the subjectivist perspective on probability, featuring thinkers like Bruno de Finetti, Frank Ramsey, and Leonard Savage, who argue that probability is not an objective entity but rather something we invent to manage uncertainty arising from our limited knowledge.De Finetti’s “betting” approach interprets probability as the price one would pay for a chance to win a fixed payoff, showing how different beliefs produce different numerical values.From Laplace’s demon to everyday life, the notion of chance emerges because our knowledge is partial, compelling us to create probability and risk rather than discover them as objective realities. Are you ready to take the (subjective) risk?Become a supporter of this podcast: https://www.spreaker.com/podcast/the-logic-of-risk--6469023/support.
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18:33
LOR8: Propensity in play, from quantum mechanics to one-shot events
In this episode of The Logic of Risk, we continue our discussion on the propensity interpretation of probability. We start by showing how Popper thought propensity could cope with the peculiar uncertainty of quantum mechanics, as well as with the problem of one-shot events, which frequentism could not handle.We then briefly touch Gillies' view, and introduce the reference class problem we will encounter often in our future conversations.Ready to take the risk?Become a supporter of this podcast: https://www.spreaker.com/podcast/the-logic-of-risk--6469023/support.
A podcast about risk, probability, philosophy and data science.Become a supporter of this podcast: https://www.spreaker.com/podcast/the-logic-of-risk--6469023/support.
Ireland