There are many different objective functions you can use when building optimal portfolios. The majority of these approaches define risk from the perspective of variability or bad outcomes, but positive returns could be viewed as “risky” for those that don’t experience them, which is another way of saying that people experience regret (or FOMO, for our trendier listeners). Today, we are joined by David Blanchett, a return guest and the Managing Director and Head of Retirement Research for PGIM DC Solutions, the global investment management arm of Prudential Financial. He is also an Adjunct Professor of Wealth Management at The American College of Financial Services and a Research Fellow for the Alliance for Lifetime Income. David returns to the podcast for an articulate discussion about regret in portfolio construction, what drives it, and how financial advisors can cater to it. We then delve into how David is redefining optimal retirement income strategies, looking at retirement tools, retirement planning, compensation models in the industry, risk exposures, and portfolios. We also get a high-level overview of some of the fascinating work that David has done on home-country bias, plus so much more. For highly technical content presented in an accessible and practical way by one of the brightest minds in retirement planning, be sure to tune in today! Key Points From This Episode: • Differences between risk aversion and regret aversion. (0:03:57) • The distinctly human element that drives “investment FOMO.” (0:06:34) • Insight into how David models regret in his research. (0:09:06) • The asset pricing implications of approaching portfolio optimization this way. (0:12:11) • Tips for deciding on what the regret benchmark should be. (0:13:19) • How a portfolio optimization routine based on regret affects asset allocation. (0:14:08) • Ways that the effect of optimizing over regret changes depending on risk aversion. (0:16:55) • Other asset characteristics that might drive optimal allocation to regret assets. (0:18:04) • Why moving away from self-direction is the best thing to happen to 401(k) plans. (0:20:53) • How financial advisors should cater to investors interested in speculative assets. (0:24:00) • Unpacking some of the social and story-driven sources of regret. (0:29:03) • Downsides to modelling retirement liability as a static inflation-adjusted amount. (0:32:00) • Why it’s important to understand the composition of retiree spending and saving. (0:33:57) • David’s research into dynamic spending rules for retirement planning. (0:42:06) • Some of the key pitfalls of existing financial planning tools and solutions. (0:44:38) • Ways that safe withdrawal rates change when you incorporate dynamic spending. (0:51:10) • How advisor channel affects passive fund choice and how clients should respond. (0:57:56) • Insight into David’s research on foreign revenue and home-country bias. (1:02:27) © 2023 Rational Reminder Podcast 1     Links From Today’s Episode: David Blanchett — https://www.davidmblanchett.com/ David Blanchett on Twitter — https://twitter.com/davidmblanchett David Blanchett on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/david-blanchett-b0b0aa2/ © 2023 Rational Reminder Podcast 2 RRP 254 Show Notes PGIM — https://www.pgim.com/ E137: David Blanchett: Researching Retirement — https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/137 ‘Regret and Optimal Portfolio Allocations’ — https://www.pm-research.com/content/iijpormgmt/ early/2023/02/01/jpm20231464 ‘Keep Keeping Your Distance: An Updated Look at 401(k) Participant Behaviors During the COVID-19 Crisis’ — https://www.morningstar.com/articles/1032011/keep-keeping-your- distance-an-updated-look-at-401k-participant-behaviors-during-the-covid-19-crisis ‘Save more with less: The impact of employer defaults and match rates on retirement saving’ — https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/cfp2.1152 ‘Redefining the Optimal Retirement Income Strategy’ — https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/ 10.1080/0015198X.2022.2129947 ‘Focusing on Both Sides of the Balance Sheet: The Benefit of Liability Optimization’ — https:// web.p.ebscohost.com/abstract ‘The Problems with Monte Carlo are in Your Mind’ — https://www.advisorperspectives.com/ articles/2023/04/24/the-problems-with-monte-carlo-are-in-your-mind ‘Does Advisor Channel Influence Passive Fund Choice?’ — https:// www.financialplanningassociation.org/learning/publications/journal/APR22-does-advisor- channel-influence-passive-fund-choice-OPEN ‘Foreign Revenue: A New World of Risk Exposures’ — https://www.pm-research.com/content/ iijpormgmt/47/6/175 Rational Reminder on iTunes — https://itunes.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-rational-reminder- podcast/id1426530582. 
 Rational Reminder Website — https://rationalreminder.ca/ Rational Reminder on Instagram — https://www.instagram.com/rationalreminder/ Rational Reminder on YouTube — https://www.youtube.com/channel/ Rational Reminder Email — [email protected]
 Benjamin Felix — https://www.pwlcapital.com/author/benjamin-felix/ Benjamin on Twitter — https://twitter.com/benjaminwfelix Benjamin on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/benjaminwfelix/ Cameron Passmore — https://www.pwlcapital.com/profile/cameron-passmore/ Cameron on Twitter — https://twitter.com/CameronPassmore Cameron on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/cameronpassmore/

We have two guests joining us for this episode of the Rational Reminder podcast. First up, we have Paul Calluzzo, who is the Assistant Professor of Finance and Toller Family Fellow of Finance in the Smith School of Business at Queen's University in Kingston. Paul joins us today to discuss the findings in his paper, ‘Complex Instruments Have Increased Risk and Reduced Performance at Mutual Funds’. He explains the motivation for the paper, the research it expands upon, and the types of complex instrument allowances it investigates. We discuss reverse causality and find out how complex instrument allowance is related to fund performance and risk, respectively, before hearing Paul’s investment advice. For the second half of the show, we are joined by the author of Losing the Signal: The Spectacular Rise and Fall of BlackBerry, Sean Silcoff to discuss the BlackBerry revolution and its subsequent decline, and the film adaptation of the book. Tune in for our guests’ insights into best practices for investors and business leaders alike.   Key Points From This Episode:   •    Housekeeping: check out our CE courses and reach out for financial advice. (0:02:25) •    An introduction to Paul Calluzzo and our conversation with him about the impact of complex financial instruments on mutual funds. (0:05:20) •    The motivation for the paper, ‘Complex Instruments Have Increased Risk and Reduced Performance at Mutual Funds’, the research it expands upon, and the types of complex instrument allowances it investigates. (0:07:50) •    Reverse causality relating to complex instruments and mutual funds, and the mechanisms that could potentially harm investors in funds using complex instruments. (0:12:37) •    How the performance of funds was evaluated in the paper and how the usage of complex instruments evolved throughout the sample. (0:18:12) •    How complex instrument allowance is related to fund performance and risk. (0:23:06) •    The asymmetry of return patterns in up and down markets. (0:26:11) •    Paul’s investment advice, in the context of the paper’s findings. (0:33:05) •    Why complex products are growing despite their poor performance and how research can reach the market. (0:37:05) •    A quick recap of episode 39 with Rob Carrick. (0:40:48) •    Our brief review of Losing the Signal: The Spectacular Rise and Fall of BlackBerry by Sean Silcoff and Jacquie McNish. (0:41:49) •    Sean Silcoff breaks down the BlackBerry revolution and its subsequent demise. (0:44:53) •    Insight into the film adaptation of the book and what makes it such a compelling story. (1:04:51) •    What business leaders and investors can take away from the BlackBerry story. (1:08:09) •    Our after-show roundup! (1:15:12)     Participate in our Community Discussion about this Episode: https://community.rationalreminder.ca/t/episode-253-complex-financial-instruments-with-prof-paul-calluzzo-plus-sean-silcoff-on-losing-the-signal-discussion-thread/23482   Book From Today’s Episode: Losing The Signal: The Spectacular Rise and Fall of BlackBerry Kindle Edition — https://amzn.to/3OaA5Wa   Links From Today’s Episode: Rational Reminder on iTunes — https://itunes.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-rational-reminder-podcast/id1426530582. Rational Reminder Website — https://rationalreminder.ca/ Shop Merch — https://shop.rationalreminder.ca/ Join the Community — https://community.rationalreminder.ca/ Follow us on Twitter — https://twitter.com/RationalRemind Follow us on Instagram — @rationalreminder Benjamin on Twitter — https://twitter.com/benjaminwfelix Cameron on Twitter — https://twitter.com/CameronPassmore Paul Calluzzo — https://smith.queensu.ca/faculty_and_research/faculty_list/calluzzo-paul.php Sean Silcoff on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/sean-silcoff-777b0912 Sean Silcoff on Twitter — https://twitter.com/SeanSilcoff 'Complex Instruments Have Increased Risk and Reduced Performance at Mutual Funds' — https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2938146      

Understanding market efficiency is an important part of investment decision-making. It can help investors to identify the most appropriate investment strategies and develop realistic expectations for their returns. In this episode of the Rational Reminder Podcast, we sit down with Professor Burton Malkiel, the renowned economist, and author of the classic investing book A Random Walk Down Wall Street. Professor Malkiel is a distinguished figure in the world of economics and academia. He holds the prestigious title of Chemical Bank Chairman's Professor of Economics Emeritus and Senior Economist at Princeton, where he has made significant contributions to the field over the years. In our conversation, we discuss Professor Malkiel’s views on the stock market, the efficient market hypothesis, how behavioural finance relates to investing, and why index funds should be at the core of every portfolio. Throughout the episode, Professor Malkiel shares his insights on a wide range of topics related to personal finance and investing, including the benefits of index funds, the dangers of active stock picking, the impact of fees and taxes on investment returns, factor investing, and expensive asset classes. He also discusses research on socially responsible investing and how investors can incorporate ethical considerations into their portfolios without sacrificing performance. In this episode, listeners will gain a better understanding of the vital principles of investing and how to apply them to achieve their financial goals. Whether you're a novice investor or an experienced pro, this episode offers valuable insights and advice from one of the most respected economists in the field, Professor Malkiel. Key Points From This Episode: Professor Malkiel explains the efficient market hypothesis and what the term “efficient market” means. (0:03:42) What the media tends to get wrong about the concept of market efficiency and the mathematical theory behind a random walk market. (0:07:04) We discuss investing in index funds rather than actively managed strategies. (0:09:44) How his book, Random Walk, was received by professionals and academics in the industry (0:13:08) Hear about the inspiration behind the concept covered in his book, and how his investment advice has changed over the last 50 years. (0:19:18) Why index funds have become widely accepted, and the difference between investing and speculating. (0:23:38) He unpacks why past market bubbles are vital for managers to understand and shares some wise words for those who want to participate in market speculation investing. (0:28:21) How the existence and persistence of bubbles throughout history relate to markets being efficient. (0:32:10) © 2023 Rational Reminder Podcast 1 RRP 252 Show Notes Find out how the multiple, non-diversifiable risks in today’s financial markets impact the advice in his book, and learn about factor investing. (0:35:42) He shares advice and insights for people looking to invest in cheaper funds and his perspective on trending investment strategies. (0:37:55) Learn how the general findings from behavioural finance influence his advice on investing in index funds. (0:41:33) We explore the value of risk parity strategies and the problem with backtests, and he shares his view on expensive asset classes. (0:44:09) What impact super-low bond yields had on the return of bonds, and whether you should focus on the value or yield. (0:54:16) The importance of saving as opposed to an optimal investment strategy to investor outcomes. (0:57:56) Insights into investing according to your desired outcomes and whether Professor Malkiel thinks it is better to rent or own a home. (1:03:55) We discuss inflation and possible future trends and the role of financial planners and investment advisors. (1:10:29) Hear his concerns regarding the growth of index fund assets. (1:14:52) Details about his book writing journey and his definition of success. (1:18:46)   Links From Today’s Episode: Burt Malkiel — https://jrc.princeton.edu/people/burton-g-malkiel Wealthfront — https://www.wealthfront.com/ Theravance Biopharma — https://www.theravance.com/ Genmab A/S — https://www.genmab.com/ Rebalance IRA — https://www.rebalance360.com/ A Random Walk Down Wall Street: The Best Investment Guide That Money Can Buy — https://amzn.to/3BgepQz Princeton University — https://www.princeton.edu/ The Yale School of Management — https://som.yale.edu/ Vanguard — https://investor.vanguard.com/corporate-portal/ Trillions — https://www.amazon.com/Trillions-Renegades-Invented-Changed-Finance/dp/ 0593087682 S&P Dow Jones Indices — https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/ S&P Dow Jones Indices SPIVA — https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/research-insights/spiva/ Rational Reminder on iTunes — https://itunes.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-rational-reminder- podcast/id1426530582. 
 Rational Reminder Website — https://rationalreminder.ca/ Rational Reminder on Instagram — https://www.instagram.com/rationalreminder/ Rational Reminder on YouTube — https://www.youtube.com/channel/ Rational Reminder Email — [email protected]
 Benjamin Felix — https://www.pwlcapital.com/author/benjamin-felix/ Benjamin on Twitter — https://twitter.com/benjaminwfelix Benjamin on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/benjaminwfelix/ Cameron Passmore — https://www.pwlcapital.com/profile/cameron-passmore/ Cameron on Twitter — https://twitter.com/CameronPassmore Cameron on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/cameronpassmore/

We all have different levels of risk tolerance. But how is that risk measured for complex investment strategies like covered calls? And how can you be sure it's an accurate reflection of reality? For the first portion of today’s episode, we provide a detailed breakdown of everything you need to know about covered calls and why there is no perfect model for assessing risk-adjusted returns. We examine how incorrect measures of risk can make covered calls seem more attractive, what investors need to know about covered calls, and the fees, costs, and taxes you should be considering with these types of strategies. Next, we are joined by lifelong friends and colleagues Jonathan Hollow and Robin Powell to discuss their new book How to Fund the Life You Want: What everyone needs to know about savings, pensions and investments. They describe how their shared passion for financial education motivated them to write their book, before explaining how readers can best use the accompanying workbook to identify and reach their financial goals. Robin and Jonathan then go on to share their advice on day-to-day money management, finding a trustworthy advisor, and why it’s never too early to teach your child about money. Tune in for a detailed breakdown of covered calls and how to make informed decisions about your investments and finances!   Key Points From This Episode: An introduction to the concept of covered calls. (0:02:41) The definition of covered calls, how risk can be measured incorrectly to make covered call strategies look more attractive, and why risk can never be destroyed. (0:04:22) A breakdown of the assets involved in covered calls and why their yields can be misleading. (0:07:00) Why there is no perfect model for assessing risk-adjusted returns and what can be learned from looking at investors through a behavioural lens. (0:16:19) An overview of why fees, costs, and taxes are major considerations for these types of strategies. (0:20:15) Introducing Robin Powell, Jonathan Hollow and their new book How to Fund the Life You Want. (0:25:08) Jonathan and Robin’s long friendship, their shared interest in financial education, why they saw a need for their book, and how readers can get the most out of their workbook. (0:30:45) Insight into the six rules that Robin and Jonathan outline in their book and the eight keywords that they set up for managing money day to day. (0:35:07) Advice on how to keep up with finance news, including what you should pay attention to and what you can ignore. (0:40:37)  The importance of a day-to-day savings habit and suggestions on what kids should be taught about money. (0:43:20) Advice on how to find a first-rate advisor based on your needs and what questions you need to be asking of them. (0:49:54) How your financial advisor should act as your financial bodyguard and complement your weaknesses. (0:56:02) Ben and Cameron share news about their next podcast appearances, Rational Reminder education courses for financial advisors, and upcoming meetups. (0:57:43) Learn about the webinars that Ben and Cameron have been hosting and how you can sign up. (01:03:00)     Links From Today’s Episode:   Robin Powell on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/robinpowell/ Jonathan Hollow on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/jonathanhollow/ How to Fund the Life You Want: What everyone needs to know about savings, pensions and investments — https://www.amazon.co.uk/dp/1399404601/ Covered Calls — https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/coveredcall.asp Episode 27: Robin Powell: Evidence Based Investing: Changing the Minds of Advisors and Investors — https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/27 Patrick Boyle on YouTube — https://www.youtube.com/c/PatrickBoyleOnFinance Sharpe Ratio — https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/sharperatio.asp Sortino Ratio — https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/sortinoratio.asp S&P 500 — https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/indices/equity/sp-500/#overview Episode 167: Prof. Hersh Shefrin: Fear, Hope, and the Psychology of Investing — https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/167 ‘Behavioral Aspects of the Design and Marketing of Financial Products’ — https://www.jstor.org/stable/3665864 Episode 171: Prof. Campbell R. Harvey: The Past and Future of Finance — https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/171 ‘Portfolio Performance Manipulation and Manipulation-Proof Performance Measures’ — https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=302815 Adviser 2.0 — https://www.advicereinvented.com/ Sensible Investing — https://sensibleinvesting.tv/ Financial Times — https://www.ft.com/ Rob Carrick — https://www.theglobeandmail.com/authors/rob-carrick/ The Globe and Mail — https://www.theglobeandmail.com/ The Money and Meaning Show — https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-money-and-meaning-show/id1449894787 The Most Hated F Word — https://themosthatedfword.com/ New Self-Regulatory Organization of Canada — https://www.newselfregulatoryorganizationofcanada.ca/ FP Canada — https://www.fpcanada.ca/ Rational Reminder Continuing Education — learn.rationalreminder.ca PWL Capital — https://www.pwlcapital.com/ PWL Capital on YouTube — https://www.youtube.com/c/Pwlcapital-Montreal/videos IAFP Symposium — https://iafpsymposium.ca Burt Malkiel — https://jrc.princeton.edu/people/burton-g-malkiel David Blanchett — https://www.davidmblanchett.com/ Meir Statman — https://www.scu.edu/business/finance/faculty/statman/ Nick Maggiulli — https://www.linkedin.com/in/nicholasmaggiulli/ Jill Schlesinger — https://www.jillonmoney.com/ Rational Reminder on iTunes — https://itunes.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-rational-reminder-podcast/id1426530582. Rational Reminder Website — https://rationalreminder.ca/  Rational Reminder on Instagram — https://www.instagram.com/rationalreminder/ Rational Reminder on YouTube — https://www.youtube.com/channel/ Rational Reminder Email — [email protected] Benjamin Felix — https://www.pwlcapital.com/author/benjamin-felix/  Benjamin on Twitter — https://twitter.com/benjaminwfelix Benjamin on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/benjaminwfelix/ Cameron Passmore — https://www.pwlcapital.com/profile/cameron-passmore/ Cameron on Twitter — https://twitter.com/CameronPassmore Cameron on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/cameronpassmore/

Navigating the world of finance and investing is undeniably complicated, sometimes unnecessarily so. And all too often the people who end up making the most costly financial mistakes are those who can least afford to do so. But what exactly needs to change in order for more people to make wise and well-informed financial decisions? And how do we go about implementing those changes? Joining us today to help us unpack this topic and the many decisions involved in the world of investing is John Y. Campbell, a British-American economist, professor of economics at Harvard, and founding partner at Arrowstreet Capital, a systematic asset management firm based in Boston. John has published over a hundred of articles on a range of topics including fixed income, equality valuation, portfolio choices, and household finance, all of which we explore in today’s expansive conversation. We kick things off by discussing utility theory, why it’s so important to the study of finance, and what it can teach us about risk aversion, before delving into portfolio structure, asset allocation, and hedging. John also expands on the study of household finance, the mistakes that households typically make, why household behaviour tends to differ from theoretical predictions, and how to bring theory and behaviour into alignment. We wrap things up by discussing how financial literacy, education, and regulation can improve outcomes for households before hearing John’s advice on selecting an optimal mortgage contract along with an overview of the type of risk that mortgage contracts expose you to. Today’s episode is jam-packed with information and insights from a profoundly knowledgeable figure in academia.   Key Points From This Episode:   •    An overview of asset pricing theory; unpacking the utility function in finance, what it teaches us about being risk averse, and how it is used to determine the value we place on any amount of money. (0:04:01) •    The implications of using the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) for portfolio choice. (0:13:58) •    The difference between arbitrage pricing theory and the Intertemporal Capital Asset Pricing Model (ICAPM). (0:18:15) •    How predictability in stock returns affects portfolio advice for long-term investors and why John prefers the cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings (CAPE) ratio. (0:23:40) •    Why a long-term inflation index bond is the ideal risk-free asset for a long-term investor, and how portfolio advice, concerning bonds, changes when inflation index bonds are not available. (0:28:32) •    The impact that labour income should have on optimal portfolio choice and the relationship between human capital and financial assets as you age. (0:35:31) •    Learn about John’s 2004 paper entitled ‘Bad Beta, Good Beta’ and how intertemporal asset pricing explains differences in returns between value and growth stocks. (0:38:33) •    The benefits and drawbacks of value investing: why historically they do well on average, but extremely poorly over certain periods. (0:41:12) •    A breakdown of stochastic volatility and how it affects portfolio choice for long-term investors. (0:47:16) •    How long-term equity investors should approach foreign currency hedging in their portfolios, and how fixed-income investors should deal with foreign currency exposure. (0:50:07) •    The study of household finance, what it aims to answer, and the major challenges in this area of study. (0:53:54) •    An overview of the mistakes that households typically make, how costly they can be, and why household behaviour tends to differ from theoretical predictions. (0:59:57) •    Suggestions on how household behaviour and theoretical predictions can be brought into alignment and the methods that have the most potential to improve outcomes for households. (01:04:47) •    What households should take into account when selecting an optimal mortgage contract and the different types of risk that mortgage contracts expose people to.[01:10:18] •    How John’s definition of success has shifted over the years, the joy of academia, and why he is especially grateful for the opportunity to connect with students on their educational journey. (01:16:04)       Participate in our Community Discussion about this Episode: https://community.rationalreminder.ca/t/episode-250-prof-john-y-campbell-financial-decisions-for-long-term-investors-discussion-thread/23202   Links From Today’s Episode: Rational Reminder on iTunes — https://itunes.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-rational-reminder-podcast/id1426530582.  Rational Reminder Website — https://rationalreminder.ca/ Shop Merch — https://shop.rationalreminder.ca/ Join the Community — https://community.rationalreminder.ca/ Follow us on Twitter — https://twitter.com/RationalRemind Follow us on Instagram — @rationalreminder Benjamin on Twitter — https://twitter.com/benjaminwfelix Cameron on Twitter — https://twitter.com/CameronPassmore John Y. Campbell — https://scholar.harvard.edu/campbell/home 'Who Should Buy Long-Term Bonds' — https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w6801/w6801.pdf 'Inflation Bets or Deflation Hedges? The Changing Risks of Nominal Bonds' — https://scholar.harvard.edu/files/campbell/files/campbellsunderamviceira_20160523.pdf 'Growth or Glamour? Fundamentals and Systematic Risk in Stock Returns' — https://scholar.harvard.edu/sites/scholar.harvard.edu/files/campbell/files/gorg20090319_copyedited.pdf 'Bad Beta, Good Beta' — https://scholar.harvard.edu/sites/scholar.harvard.edu/files/campbell/files/bbgb_2004_nberw9509.pdf 'An Intertemporal CAPM with Stochastic Volatility' — https://scholar.harvard.edu/sites/scholar.harvard.edu/files/campbell/files/cgpt_volatilityrisk20170123final.pdf 'Global Currency Hedging' — https://scholar.harvard.edu/sites/scholar.harvard.edu/files/campbell/files/globalcurrencyhedging_20090128_manuscript.pdf 'Biases in long-horizon predictive regressions' — https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0304405X21004013 'What Drives Booms and Busts in Value?' — https://scholar.harvard.edu/sites/scholar.harvard.edu/files/campbell/files/cgp_valueboomsbusts_20230311.pdf 'Household Finance' — https://scholar.harvard.edu/sites/scholar.harvard.edu/files/campbell/files/householdfinance_jof_2006.pdf 'The Cross-Section of Household Preferences' — https://scholar.harvard.edu/sites/scholar.harvard.edu/files/campbell/files/calvetcampbellgomessodini_20221027.pdf 'Restoring Rational Choice: The Challenge of Consumer Financial Regulation' — https://scholar.harvard.edu/sites/scholar.harvard.edu/files/campbell/files/elylecture_march2016.pdf 'Down or Out: Assessing the Welfare Costs of Household Investment Mistakes' — https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/abs/10.1086/524204 'A Model of Mortgage Default' — https://scholar.harvard.edu/sites/scholar.harvard.edu/files/campbell/files/mortdefault13022014.pdf 'Household Risk Management and Optimal Mortgage Choice' — https://scholar.harvard.edu/campbell/publications/household-risk-management-and-optimal-mortgage-choice 'Predicting the Equity Premium Out of Sample: Can Anything Beat the Historical Average?' — https://www.nber.org/papers/w11468 'An Asset Allocation Puzzle' — https://www.nber.org/papers/w4857