Two investment bankers weekly explore how tech, finance, markets and regulations are radically redefining the world of energy: Renewable Energy, Electric Cars, ...
As the price of gas and LNG (Liquified Natural Gas) becomes a key factor for the value of the world’s energy, we have decided to bring in a top gas expert to explain where the market is and how is it going to evolve.Seb Kennedy is a leading market analyst and Founding Editor of Energy Flux (www.EnergyFlux.news), an independent newsletter that analyses global gas and LNG markets through the lens of Europe's energy transition.We review the numerous phases that the market has faced since the beginning of the decade, COVID, post COVID, Russia-Ukraine. We delve into the incredible expansion of US Exports capacity, with 8 terminals now operational and a forecasted growth of another 50% by the end of the decade.We analyse how the market is inherently volatile, which make long term investment difficult but still inside a band. If the LNG gets too high, then consumers will switch; if it gets too low, then some capacity will be shelved. We focus on Qatar, the world’s lowest cost producer, which will continue to grow no matter what. Seb anticipates a surplus in the coming years with massive extra capacities coming on the market from USA and Qatar. But the role of Iran and Russia, which hold the largest reserves, remain a huge uncertainty. Europe’s attitude towards LNG is a complex web of contradictions, between decarbonisation, security and affordability of supply, and global geopolitics. In conclusion, a strategic source of energy, but difficult to apprehend.
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166. Green Equities Performance: Core vs Periphery - Jan 2025
For the first episode of 2025, Gerard and Laurent have the pleasure of welcoming Shanu Mathew. Shanu is a Senior Vice President at Lazard Asset Management and Portfolio Manager/Analyst on US Sustainable Equity. We are going to analyse the performance of “Cleantech” Equities throughout 2024 and discuss what to expect for 2025. Let’s be honest: 2024 was an annus horribilis for “Core” Cleantech with major indices (S&P Global Clean Energy Index) down 20%. But 2024 was also an exceptional year for “Periphery” (or adjacent) Cleantech with companies like Siemens Energy and GE Vernova being star performers.Why such a divergence between “Core” and “Periphery”? What fundamentals are sustaining such trends? Beside interest rates, political uncertainties, competition of China, there are some green shoots that certain segments have better captured than others.And of course, we are talking about load growth and the rise of datacenters. A rising tide lift all boats, and Core Cleantech having been so much slaughtered in recent years due to past excesses, we foresee a positive rebalancing in 2025.Overall, a very vast panorama of how the market values the future of the Energy Transition.
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165. Our Predictions for 2025
Happy new year to all our listeners. It has become a tradition for the first episode of the year: Gerard, Laurent and Michael present their 2025 Predictions in the Energy Transition.Here are the predictions that were made a year ago.1) Stellantis will outsource its EV production in China2) Politics: Elections in 2024 could derail the Energy Transition3) Oversupply of everything energy related – Prices are going down4) Stronger top-down governance of Transmission and Interconnection5) The return of Clean Energy shares6) China will gain massive international market in Wind and EVs Winner for best predictions is Michael Barnard, and the loser is Laurent (as usual) And here are our 6 predictions for 20251) Oil production down in the US in 20252) Oil prices will hit 40USD/bl in 20253) Geopolitics, stressed supply chains and Energy bonanza will bring a more innovative and better world4) A bloodbath for Hydrogen in the Transportation sector5) Record installation of Solar (700GW), EVs (20m) and Batteries (200GWh)6) The end of all financial products labelled ESG, Climate and Carbon We wish all our listeners an excellent year 2025 and we love you all.
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164. 2024 Wrap up: Successes, Surprises and Shocks
Merry Christmas. This is our last Episode of the Year where Laurent and Gerard summarise what impressed them, surprised them and shocked them. AI, Hydrogen, Renewables, USA vs Europe vs China, Climate. What worked, what did not work.2024 is a year that will be remembered at pivotal in so many aspects. We salute our friends, our influencers and unveil our book of the year: “The coming wave” by Mustafa Suleyman, not purely about Energy, but about the digital transformation that is revolutionising the world.Laurent and Gerard wish our listeners wonderful year end celebrations and… Buckle up for 2025.
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163. Gerard is live at TedXBerlin / Welcome to the Era of Energy Disruption
Gerard delivered a master class at TedXBerlin about the four forces driving the Energy Revolution Solar, Batteries, Electronics and China. It is called “Welcome to the Era of Energy Disruption” An excellent introduction for tomorrow’s world. You can watch Gerard on YouTube:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VXwGvLj4rak
Two investment bankers weekly explore how tech, finance, markets and regulations are radically redefining the world of energy: Renewable Energy, Electric Cars, Hydrogen, Battery Storage, Digitisation...Your co-hosts: from Berlin, Gerard Reid and from London, Laurent Segalen.Our LinkedIn page: https://www.linkedin.com/company/redefining-energy/X handle: @Redef_Energy
Ireland