Redefining Energy

• 201. Battery Boom or Policy Bust? The Big EV Divergence - Oct25

  We are in the middle of a battery boom, for EVs and even more for BESS. What's really happening in the electric vehicle (EV) market? Is China dominating the field, or are serious alternatives emerging? What roles are Europe, the U.S., and other global regions playing? Which chemistries are winning out, and how are prices trending?  These are the questions we ask ourselves every day — and today, Gerard and Laurent are thrilled to have someone who can help us answer them. Laurent and Gerard are joined by the brilliant Iola Hughes, Head of Research at Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, following its acquisition of Rho Motion.  Iola leads research across the battery demand spectrum — from EVs to stationary storage — managing forecasts, tracking battery chemistries, and analyzing the impact of everything from regulation to OEM strategies and technology roadmaps.   According to Benchmark Mineral Intelligence and Rho Motion, as of 2025:The Battery Energy Storage Systems (BESS) sector is growing at 40% year-over-yearThe EV market is expanding by 25% year-over-year But perhaps the most surprising trend is that forecasts made just 18 months ago are being exceeded — in nearly every region except the United States. There, the current administration appears to be kneecapped the industry by rolling back both incentives (like tax credits) and regulations (such as CAFE and emissions standards). Nissan in the US is moving back from EVs to hybrids while GM passes billions of impairments.  On the industrial side, it’s increasingly a case of China versus the world. China now has the capacity to manufacture a staggering 50 million vehicles per year, far outpacing domestic demand and sparking concerns about overcapacity.  In summary: we are witnessing a growing divide in the global battery and EV space. China is clearly in the lead. Europe and others are racing to catch up. And the U.S.? It’s at risk of falling further behind — not for lack of potential, but because of political and policy choices.https://www.benchmarkminerals.com/  https://www.linkedin.com/in/iolahughes/  https://x.com/RhoMoIola  Stunning visuals from FT on the development of batteries (most of the sources came from Benchmark)  https://ig.ft.com/mega-batteries

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• 200. “200 slides, Energy, AI, and the End of ESG” with Nat Bullard - Oct25

  For our 200th episode, we had the pleasure and privilege of speaking with Nat Bullard, one of the sharpest minds in the energy world. A leading analyst in climate and energy, Nat is known for his clear insights on clean energy, decarbonization, and the global energy transition. Formerly Chief Content Officer at BloombergNEF, he is now also a co-founder of the AI company Halcyon.  Nat is perhaps best known for his annual 200-slide deck, a rich compilation of global data and charts that paints a clear, fact-based picture of where the energy sector is heading.  Our conversation spans major shifts shaping the future: the electrification of the Global South, the rise of AI and datacenters, the unravelling of ESG, and the evolving geopolitics of energy through the lens of "Electrostates vs. Petrostates"—and how investment flows are responding.  We also explore the dominant narratives in the energy space, many of which, we agree, are self-serving and unhelpful.  Ultimately, the energy transition is being held back less by technology and more by entrenched interests and a lack of curiosity. But the world is changing fast—and there is reason for hope.   We thank AFRY for supporting the show.  Reference for reports quoted during the showThe Electrotech Revolution – Ember and Kingsmill Bond   https://ember-energy.org/latest-insights/the-electrotech-revolution/  Afry: Market and regulatory overview of the North Atlantic Transmission One -Link project https://afry.com/en/exploring-nato-l-project-and-transatlantic-power-exchange-decarbonised-future   "AFRY provides engineering, design, digital and advisory services to accelerate the transition towards a sustainable society. At AFRY, we are 19,000 devoted experts in industry, energy and infrastructure sectors, creating impact for generations to come. Best example of AFRY expertise is the report they just released on the Regulatory and Revenue Models for the North Atlantic Transmission One – Link."   

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• 199. The LNG Mirage - Oct25

  The oil and gas industry is clinging to the narrative that we're entering a "Golden Age of Gas" — especially when it comes to LNG. Riding this assumption, companies have been pouring in investments at an aggressive pace, with plans to double LNG export capacity by the end of the decade.US LNG FIDs are breaking all records in 2025, with 55 mtpa of liquefaction capacity sanctioned since the start of the year. This is the second-best year for global LNG FIDs (Final Investment Decision), second only to 2019, when over 70 mtpa of FIDs .The latest example is the 14bnUSD FID for Sempra’s Port Arthur 2 in Texas in September 2025, mostly financed by large funds Blackstone, KKR, Apollo, Goldman Sachs.Currently, LNG exports make up about 16% of U.S. gas consumption. Projections suggest that figure could rise to 30% by 2030. But two major uncertainties loom large:Demand: Will international markets absorb this flood of LNG? China's pivot toward Russian and Central Asian pipelines, Qatar’s own ramp-up in production, and Europe’s push to reduce reliance on expensive imported gas all cast doubt on future demand.Supply: Will the U.S. have enough cheap gas to meet this export surge — especially as the AI boom is expected to drive up domestic gas use, while the federal government places increasing restrictions on renewable energy development?To unpack these critical questions, we’ve invited Justin Mikulka to explore what he calls the “LNG Mirage.” He’ll walk us through hard-hitting facts and trends that investors are currently overlooking. At events like CERAWeek and Gastech, the fossil fuel industry often seems to talk only to itself — echoing reassurances while ignoring warning signs. But winter is coming.About the Speaker:Justin Mikulka has spent the past decade investigating and reporting on the energy sector, with a particular focus on the shifting economics between fossil fuels and emerging clean technologies. He publishes regular insights at Powering the Planet and currently serves as the Communications Director at Oilfield Witness, a U.S.-based nonprofit that uses optical gas imaging to document methane emissions from the oil and gas industry.Reports in reference: Global Gas Flaring Tracker Report from World Bank https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/bd2432bbb0e514986f382f61b14b2608-0400072025/original/Global-Gas-Flaring-Tracker-Report-July-2025.pdf    We thank Abloco Energy for supporting the show. www.abloco.energy----Epilog post recording:"Venture Global shares plunged more than 20% on Friday following its loss in an arbitration case against BP, which accused the US liquefied natural gas producer of breaching contracts to profit from higher prices at the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.The case was one of several pursued by Venture Global’s customers alleging it failed to deliver shipments under long-term supply contracts and instead sold them for higher prices on the spot market when gas prices soared in early 2022.BP’s victory is a major blow to one of the largest US LNG exporters, which now faces a separate hearing to determine damages in the case. The UK oil group is seeking damages in excess of $1bn, as well as interest, costs and attorneys’ fees."

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• 198. Battery Blitz in Germany - Oct25

  Germany is experiencing a battery blitz. The market is expected to triple from 2GW to 6GW in less than two years. To give a bit of context, Zach Williams from Modo Energy, gives us the big picture and fundamentals of the German battery market.  Legacy developers have not yet been able to catch that wave, but newcomers have. We bring on one those new pioneers, Philipp Man, CEO of Terralayr.  In less than three years, Philipp has managed to set up a company which operates or currently builds 150MW of batteries in Germany; more importantly he has managed to sign some of the first tolling agreements with heavyweights such as Vattenfall and RWE. His approach combines medium size batteries (10-30MW) rather than gigantic ones.  The Vattenfall-Terralayr deal is a pioneering seven-year, 55 MW multi-asset capacity tolling agreement for a decentralized fleet of battery energy storage systems (BESS) across Germany, announced in May 2025. Described as an industry-first "virtual battery tolling structure," it marks a significant shift from traditional single-asset tolling models, enabling scalable and flexible energy storage solutions without significant capital investment from Vattenfall.  With Philipp, we dissect his lightspeed approach in a seemingly bureaucratic environment, we analyse how he has been to put assets on the ground so fast, and his approach to commercialisation of flexibility combining hard assets and a digital layer.  We discuss the price formation of tolling agreements, the “tranching” of capacity and how he sees the future. Is Terralayr a tech company? Is it an infrastructure play? Well, a bit of both.

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• 197. The fight for accurate Carbon Accounting and 24/7 Green Power - Sep25

  With Gerard away, Laurent invited another Irishman, Killian Daly, to dive into a technical—but critically important—topic: carbon accounting, power procurement, the GHG Protocol (v3), and the push for 24/7 green energy.For as long as we can remember, companies have tried to boost their green credentials—high rewards if successful, limited consequences if they fall short. To curb exaggerated claims, standards like the GHG Protocol emerged.Laurent was part of the original task force that developed the first version of the GHG Protocol. He recalls the pivotal moment that led to the creation of Scope 2: an infamous visit to the Tomago aluminium smelter in Australia back in 2000. Fast forward two decades, and Killian Daly—now leading the forward-thinking organization EnergyTag—is driving efforts to embed 24/7 carbon accounting into the upcoming revision of Scope 2 of the GHG Protocol.It’s a crucial battle—for transparency, integrity, digital innovation, and sound economics. Opposing us are certain (not all) Big Tech companies, whose actual emissions far exceed their green marketing, and fossil fuel lobbyists doing their best to delay progress.But we are making progress—and we need your help. Join the fight. Reach out to Killian Daly at EnergyTag to see how you can get involved.https://energytag.org/And don’t miss a major event: Green Energy Procurement – 10th October in London, hosted with Renewabl, S&P Global, and Shoosmiths. Last year the event was 250% oversubscribed. This year’s venue is bigger—but spots are going fast.Secure your place now:https://www.renewabl.com/post/join-us-for-renewabl-day-2025-inside-the-ppa-market  

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