Barclays Brief

Ahead of the UK Autumn Budget, the consensus view is that higher borrowing costs and a weaker fiscal backdrop have left the Chancellor of the Exchequer with little room to manoeuvre. But what if markets are focusing on the wrong part of the story?
In this episode of the Barclays Brief, host Patrick Coffey sits down with Jack Meaning, Chief UK Economist at Barclays, to examine why expectations of a sharp squeeze of the Chancellor’s fiscal headroom may be overstated. While higher gilt yields have dominated the debate, stronger nominal earnings and tax receipts could leave the Chancellor in a more resilient position than many investors assume, at least for now.
The conversation explores the outlook for inflation, interest rates and the UK Budget, alongside signs of stronger business investment, the potential productivity benefits of AI and why the UK may be emerging as a relative source of stability in Europe.
For investors, businesses and households alike, the key question is whether the prevailing narrative on the UK has become too negative and what that could mean for growth, markets and policy in the months ahead.
This episode was recorded on Wednesday 7 October at 10:30am British Summer Time.

Listeners can hear more related to this topic:​
• Brexit, Burnham and Britain's next decade
• French bonds: OAT of control
• Do debt managers or markets set the price of long bonds?

Listeners can hear more related to this topic:​
• Headwinds on the horizon
• The direct fiscal effects of quantitative easing and tightening
• UK Rates Strategy: Chancellor Healey meets the bond market: ‘let sleeping dogs lie’

Important Content Disclosures

This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation. Views expressed are those of the speakers and may not reflect those of the firm. Any forward-looking statements are based on current assumptions and subject to risks and uncertainties.

French government bonds, or OATs, are under growing pressure. While rising yields reflect a broader sell-off across European markets, concerns over France’s fiscal trajectory and political uncertainty are driving an additional risk premium.

In this episode of Barclays Brief, host Patrick Coffey is joined by Rohan Khanna, Head of European Rates Strategy, to examine why investors are demanding greater clarity before returning to French debt. They consider how persistent budget deficits, substantial debt issuance and political fragmentation have contributed to the widening OAT-Bund spread, and why the 2027 presidential and parliamentary elections will be critical for market confidence.

Khanna also draws an important distinction for investors: the pressure on French bonds reflects a repricing of France’s fiscal and political risk, not a repeat of the 2011–12 eurozone debt crisis. Looking ahead, attention will turn to whether the next administration will have the willingness and ability to address France’s fiscal trajectory. Until there is greater clarity, volatility may persist and investors could continue to demand a higher risk premium for holding French debt.

Clients can read more on Barclays Live:
French banks: Standing OAT of the crowd
Euro Area: Rates Strategy - OAT of the frying pan into the fire
Macro x Politics: Not just another French election
Thinking Macro: Three stories. Not one.

Listeners can also explore the topic further:
US Rates: Higher for longer
Decoding the bond sell-off
European rates: Inflation & AI waves collide

Important Content Disclosures

Markets have spent much of 2026 confronting higher bond yields, tighter central bank policy and elevated oil prices. By historical standards, that should have been enough to derail growth. Instead, markets and the global economy have continued to surprise to the upside.
In this episode of Barclays Brief, host Ronnie Wexler is joined by Ajay Rajadhyaksha, Global Chairman of Research, to discuss the thinking behind Barclays Research's latest Global Outlook, Reluctantly Optimistic. They explore why the traditional relationship between higher rates and weaker growth appears to be weakening, and how a powerful AI investment cycle is helping sustain economic momentum.
The conversation also examines the strength of US corporate earnings, the resilience of the US consumer and early signs that AI-driven productivity gains are extending beyond the largest technology companies. While risks remain, particularly around sovereign debt and bond markets, Rajadhyaksha argues that the fundamental drivers supporting growth and risk assets remain firmly in place.
This episode was recorded on Monday 28 September at 5:00pm British Summer Time.

Listeners can hear more related to this topic:​
Barclays Brief #49: Pacing the Frontier: What’s next for AI?
Barclays Brief #48: US Rates: Higher for longer
The Flip Side #87: Do debt managers or markets set the price of long bonds?

Clients can read more on Barclays Live:​
Global Outlook: Reluctantly optimistic

Important Content Disclosures
Important Non-Research Content Disclosures

This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation. Views expressed are those of the speakers and may not reflect those of the firm. Any forward-looking statements are based on current assumptions and subject to risks and uncertainties.

The recent summit between Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping brought greater stability to US-China relations, but little substantive resolution. Continued dialogue and an extension of the trade truce offer grounds for optimism, however major questions around trade, geopolitics and AI remain unresolved.

In this episode of Barclays Brief, host Patrick Coffey is joined by Mitul Kotecha, Head of FX & EM Macro Strategy, Asia, to consider the implications for Asian markets.

They explore how strong AI-related demand continues to support technology exporters, particularly Korea and Taiwan, with related investment and activity providing support elsewhere in the region. Beyond the tech sector, moves in US rates have been a significant driver of recent pressure across Asian bond markets. Currency markets present a similarly differentiated picture, with policy tightening in Japan yet to provide sustained support for the yen.

Turning to energy markets, Kotecha points out that while India and the Philippines remain relatively vulnerable as major energy importers, the region has proved more resilient than expected to elevated oil prices.

For markets, the central message is that geopolitics is becoming increasingly difficult to separate from the economic story. From trade and technology to supply chains, rates and currencies, the interaction of these forces makes China and the broader Asian region increasingly important for investors to watch.

Clients can read more on Barclays Live:
FX & EM Macro Strategy - FX Views for the Year Ahead
FX & EM Macro Strategy Quarterly Outlook -The FX effect of global reflation
China-US Watch More signalling, less substance
Q4 2026 Global Outlook – Reluctantly Optimistic

Listeners can also explore the topic further:
Pacing the Frontier: What’s next for AI?
Japan: Why the world is watching
Opportunities in Asian Equities


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As AI models become increasingly capable, questions around safety and oversight are growing. Recent cybersecurity incidents have intensified the debate over whether frontier AI development needs to slow down, or "pace," while labs introduce stronger guardrails. ​
​In this episode of Barclays Brief, host Ronnie Wexler speaks with Senior Internet Research Analyst Ross Sandler about what pacing could mean for the future of AI investment and innovation. They discuss why more rigorous safeguards could increase development costs, how major labs may respond, and whether pacing could change the competitive landscape. ​
​Despite the challenges, Sandler remains optimistic about AI. As models become more powerful and more computing capacity becomes available, he sees the potential for major breakthroughs across medicine, biology, science and mathematics. For investors, the question is whether stronger safeguards will materially slow industry growth and innovation, or simply become part of AI’s continued evolution. ​
​Listeners can hear more related to this topic:​​
Episode 42: AI credit supply tests market capacity ​
Episode 40: Cooling the AI buildout ​

​​Clients can read more on Barclays Live:​​
Compute Increases ~18% From Frontier Lab 'Pacing'​
AI-fueled Credit Supply: the slice keeps getting bigger ​

Important Content Disclosures​
Important Non-Research Content Disclosures​
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This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation. Views expressed are those of the speakers and may not reflect those of the firm. Any forward-looking statements are based on current assumptions and subject to risks and uncertainties.​