Bloomberg Businessweek

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A key measure of US inflation was tame at the start of the year. But another metric is shaping up to paint a very different picture.Wednesday’s report on the consumer price index showed core inflation, which excludes food and energy costs, was mild in both January and February — a pleasant surprise as companies tend to raise prices at the turn of the year. Yet economists expect another gauge, one preferred by the Federal Reserve and set for release on Friday, was probably rather strong in both months.

The fact that the personal consumption expenditures price index has been outpacing the CPI is already unusual. Typically it’s been the other way around, as a higher weighting on housing costs in the CPI tends to keep that measure relatively elevated.
Now the wedge appears to be deepening. Should the core PCE rise 3.1% in the year through January as economists expect, it would exceed the annual core CPI by one of the widest margins in decades.

The divergence began before the Iran war, which has sent oil prices sharply higher and renewed risks of a broader acceleration in inflation. That puts the Fed in a tough spot. While policymakers are broadly expected to leave interest rates unchanged next week, a sustained pickup in price pressures would make it difficult for officials to justify resuming rate cuts in coming months to shore up a fragile labor market.

The PCE price index, a product of the Bureau of Economic Analysis, draws from the CPI for several price categories. In the wake of the latest CPI data, economists were quick to boost their forecast for the February core PCE price index, which is due April 9. Several projected it would rise 0.4% for a second month, with some penciling in a bigger pickup.

Today's show features:
Yelena Shulyatyeva, The Conference Board Senior US Economist, on today's CPI reaction as we count down to next Fed decision
Gerry Doyle, Bloomberg News Global Defense Editor on Iran’s Cheap, Plentiful Weaponry Puts US Military Under Strain
Gary Evans, US Antimony CEO on the company's $27M award from Dept of Defense under the Defense Production Act
Ellen Wald, Transversal Consulting & Atlantic Council Senior Fellow on the latest in the oil markets
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The son of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei will become Iran’s next supreme leader, Iran’s semi-official Fars news agency announced, taking over after his father was killed in an attack by the US and Israel. Mojtaba Khamenei, 56, is the third person to lead the Islamic Republic and the first example of hereditary succession since the overthrow of the Pahlavi monarchy in the 1979 revolution. Iran’s Assembly of Experts elected the country’s next supreme leader in a “decisive vote,” according to Fars. The vote took place hours before the result was made public. Alex Vatanka, Middle East Institute Senior Fellow, joins Bloomberg Businessweek Daily to discuss Mojtaba Khamenei's ascent and what it means for Iran and global relations.
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The people, companies and trends shaping the global economy.
Watch Carol and Tim LIVE every day on YouTube: http://bit.ly/3vTiACF.
Energy markets whipsawed for a second consecutive day as investors raced to interpret rapidly shifting comments from the Trump administration over the war in Iran.
Oil prices plummeted after Energy Secretary Chris Wright erroneously posted — and then deleted — a message that the US Navy had escorted an oil tanker through the Strait of Hormuz, only for White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt to subsequently concede no such operation had occurred. But, the spokeswoman said, the US military was “drawing up additional options” to address any attempt by Iran to constrain trade through the vital artery.
Later Tuesday afternoon, President Donald Trump posted his own flurry of messages on social media. First, Trump insisted the US had “no reports” of mines being placed, but then urged Iranian forces to remove any explosives they may have laid.
Next, Trump said the US was “using the same Technology and Missile capabilities deployed against Drug Traffickers” to target mining ships. Minutes later, the president reported that the US had “hit, and completely destroyed, 10 inactive mine laying boats” and promised “more to follow.”
Today's show features:
Kevin Gordon, Schwab Head of Macro Research & Strategy as markets digest a flurry of geopolitical headlines
Bloomberg Balance of Power Co-host Joe Mathieu as the White House says the US Navy has not escorted a tanker through the Strait
Mark Gurman, Bloomberg News Managing Editor for Global Consumer Tech on Apple's new $599 MacBook Neo
Anurag Rana, Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Technology Analyst on Oracle's blockbuster earnings report
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As fans of FX’s new limited series, Love Story: John F. Kennedy Jr. & Carolyn Bessette search for real-life versions of the characters' wardrobes, they're running into roadblocks. According to Google Trends, searches for “Calvin Klein 90s” shot up 850% in the US the week Love Story premiered. When customers found more fleece joggers and graphic tees on its website than the sleek basics they were looking for, some turned to secondhand sellers. PVH Corp., the apparel conglomerate that bought the Calvin Klein brand from the designer of the same name in 2003, declined to comment on its CBK strategy—or lack thereof—citing a quiet period ahead of its next earnings release.

Dina Katgara, Bloomberg News Consumer Reporter, joins Bloomberg Businessweek Daily to discuss. She speaks with Carol Massar and Tim Stenovec.
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The people, companies and trends shaping the global economy.

Watch Carol and Tim LIVE every day on YouTube: http://bit.ly/3vTiACF.

President Donald Trump made an emphatic declaration on Friday about his intentions in the widening Middle East war: He’d accept no deal with Iran other than “unconditional surrender” and pledged the US “will work tirelessly” to restore the country’s economy if a new leader is installed whom he deems acceptable.Nearly a week in, the military campaign has sent oil prices soaring and roiled equity and bond markets across the globe. The online missive showed the president — who campaigned as a pro-peace candidate — is digging in on policies that threaten to tear his fragile political coalition apart.

The revolt of “Make America Great Again” influencers including Tucker Carlson, Megyn Kelly and Marjorie Taylor Greene, along with several GOP politicians, has produced a chorus of betrayal. “No one should have to die for a foreign country,” Kelly said on her radio show this week.
Their backlash comes after Trump has already tested his base’s loyalty with an earlier strike on Iran and an operation in Venezuela to capture Nicolas Maduro that represent the kind of military adventurism he’d built his political career on rejecting, as well as his handling of the Epstein files, which frustrated some MAGA devotees who expected the swift and full transparency he promised.

At the same time, the Iran campaign risks alienating the more-casual Trump voters who cast a ballot for him hoping he’d shore up the economy, and see Middle East conflict as a distraction — or even a hindrance. Gasoline prices this week rose to their highest level at any time during a Trump presidency.

Today's show features:
Nancy Cook, Bloomberg News Senior National Economic Correspondent on Big Take: ‘MAGA Is Split': Trump Digs In on Iran War, Divides Loyalists
Jennifer Welch, Bloomberg Economics Chief Geoeconomics Analyst on ongoing impact of Iran/Hormuz on gas prices, inflation/stagflation, energy and other commodities prices
Madison Muller, Bloomberg News Health Reporter on Novo Drops Hims & Hers Lawsuit and Will Sell Wegovy on Site, FDA Plans to Loosen Testing Rules to Boost Biosimilar Drugs
Bloomberg News White House Editor Jordan Fabian on President Trump Says War with Iran is ‘Very Complete'
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