Behind The Facade - Real Estate Investing

My father died in November 1993. When we finally opened the pile of post he had left behind, one letter showed the interest rate on the family home mortgage. It was 16%.
In this episode I build what I am calling the Interest Rate Ladder. Every rung of ECB policy since the bank was created in 1999, priced against the same loan so you can see exactly what each rate does to a real monthly payment. The loan: €300,000, 25-year term, tracker at ECB plus 1%.
We start where we are now, at a main refinancing rate of 2.4% and a payment of €1,486 a month. Then we climb down through the cutting cycles, the Troika years, the NAMA fire sales, six straight years at zero, and the negative deposit rate era when savers were paying banks to hold their money. Then we climb back up through 2006, through the point where development appraisals stop working, through Trichet's 4.25% hike two months before Lehman collapsed, to the ECB's all-time high of 4.75%.
Then we go further back than the ECB exists. Irish Central Bank rates in the early 1990s, overnight rates that briefly touched 100% during the currency crisis, and a 12% mortgage that would cost €3,160 a month on the same loan. Then Volcker's 20% at the Fed, and three centuries of Bank of England history including Black Wednesday.
The swing from the ECB's lowest rate to its highest is 1.7x on your monthly payment. At the Bank of England it is 4x. At the Fed it is 4.5x. We have not seen desperate times.
The practical takeaway is at the end. Stress test every deal at 2% above the rate you are being offered. If it does not survive that, do not do the deal.
I have spent roughly 30 years in property across Ireland, Spain and Dubai. I lost a portfolio in 2008 and rebuilt from nothing, which is why rate history is not an academic subject for me.
If you want the frameworks I use to underwrite and stress test deals properly, that is what we work through inside the Elite Property Accelerator: elitepropertyaccelerator.com

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BTF Episode: 276. Irish Property News Roundup for Week Ending 12.06.26
All the news impacting the Irish property market in one place.
If you enjoyed this episode please leave a review!
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BTF Episode: 275. From Six-Pack to Seven Figures with Rob Lipsett
Rob Lipsett has built Ireland's biggest fitness brand from his iPhone 5 and a few hours of grind after a 9-to-5. But this conversation isn't about health and fitness, it's about what comes after you've built your audience.
We sat down in Marbella to talk business, property, and what it really takes to turn a personal brand into a long-term asset. Rob is one of the sharpest operator-creators I've come across — and his journey from college dropout to Villa Lipsett has lessons that go far beyond the fitness industry.
We cover:
How he built and monetised his brand from zero
What most influencers get wrong about business
His approach to property and long-term wealth
The mindset shift from creator to entrepreneur
Why Marbella — and what the lifestyle actually costs
This is a different episode. If you're building a brand, a business, or both — this one's for you.
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BTF Episode: 274. Is the 5x Income Mortgage a Dangerous Sign?
Ireland's mortgage market is shifting again, with Nua Money now offering up to 5x income borrowing. In this episode, we break down the history of Ireland's lending rules and explore the potentially dangerous second-order effects of expanded credit colliding with rising construction costs and housing shortages.
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My guest this week is Chalie Fitzgibbon who built a construction and development business in Edinburgh, Scotland, scaled it to a staff of 110 before grappling with some serious challenges that drove him to the decision to sell the business. All before his 30th birthday - this episode will open your eyes. 
If you enjoyed this episode please leave a review! Thank you
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Support the channel: 
https://buymeacoffee.com/gavinjgallagher