Alpha Exchange

• Mark Rosenberg, Founder and Co-Head, Geoquant

  Risk generally falls into 4 categories, monetary (Central Banks), economic (growth and profits), financial (leverage, carry and correlation) and finally, geopolitical. This last category is non-market, market risk.  And in this context, it was a pleasure to welcome Mark Rosenberg, Founder of GeoQuant and adjunct professor at UC Berkeley to the Alpha Exchange for a discussion centered on political risk as a measurable market variable.Mark’s work evaluates how governance, social instability, institutional stress, and security dynamics influence asset pricing. Tracing his path from academia to his time at Eurasia Group, he describes the gap that existed in country-risk assessment—macroeconomic indicators were abundant, yet political inputs remained qualitative, backward-looking, and infrequent. His motivation for launching GeoQuant followed the belief that political dynamics could be structured into model-based, data-driven signals rather than anecdotes, expert impressions, or slow annual indicators.GeoQuant separates political risk into governance, social, and security components, drawing from quantitative indicators, news-driven updates, and structural model frameworks. Geopolitical risk conjures referendums like Brexit, countries like Russia, China and Iran, conflicts like trade wars and actual wars. The United States does not come to mind. But looking ahead to the 2026 midterm cycle, Mark describes a US landscape defined by elevated turnover risk, the potential for policy conflict, and a political structure capable of generating prolonged uncertainty, a risk factor that may not be sufficiently priced into assets.I hope you enjoy this episode of the Alpha Exchange, my conversation with Mark Rosenberg.

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• Todd Rapp, CEO, Fortress Multi-Manager Group

  Todd Rapp got his career started in equity options at Goldman Sachs in the late 1990’s, a wild time in which a bubble inflated and burst and provided critical lessons in both gamma and vega risk in the process. Now the CEO of the Fortress Multi-Manager Group, Todd leans heavily on his derivatives DNA in the areas of sourcing uncorrelated return streams, portfolio construction and both measuring and managing risk. Early training has shaped his long-term view that markets express probability through delta, option curvature, and distribution structure rather than through static price movements.Our conversation connects early risk management lessons to today’s landscape, where market concentration echoes 1999, yet correlation conditions differ meaningfully. Todd notes that unlike the prior cycle, today’s equity index shows low intra-index correlation, making dispersion, risk sizing, and factor neutrality more fundamental for return generation.We also explore how the multi-manager architecture seeks to harness uncorrelated strategies packaged with capital efficiency and leverage, producing return streams engineered to operate through dispersion. Todd highlights how understanding optionality remains central to managing equity factor shocks, beta instability, and correlation convergence events.Lastly, we touch on the human capital side of building a business. Having interviewed hundreds of risk takers over the years, Todd looks for individuals who have something to prove, suggesting that having experienced adversity is important because, “if you don’t have a significant drawdown in your past, it’s in your future.”I hope you enjoy this episode of the Alpha Exchange, my conversation with Todd Rapp.

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• Jessica Stauth, CIO, Systematic Equity, Fidelity Investments

  It was a pleasure to welcome Jessica Stauth, CIO for Systematic Equities at Fidelity Investments, to the Alpha Exchange. Our discussion explores how quant investing has evolved through cycles of market stress, technological change, and today’s extraordinary concentration in the equity landscape. Reflecting on her start in markets in the aftermath of the 2007 Quant Quake and the onset of the global financial crisis, Jessica highlights the foundational lesson that markets contain far more uncertainty than models can fully capture — a theme as relevant today as investors confront narrow leadership and elevated fragility. She explains how early dislocations demonstrated the limits of traditional risk models and the dangers of crowding, especially when many quantitative strategies rely on similar signals or hedging techniques. Turning to the present, Jessica describes how her team builds equity strategies designed to function across regimes, emphasizing the need for diversified risk models, guardrails that prevent overfitting, and a clear understanding of how macro shocks can overwhelm bottom-up stock selection. She details the evolution of factor research, including the durability of broad categories such as value, momentum, and quality, while outlining how competition and data availability reshape their effectiveness over time. Lastly, she discusses the growing role of non-traditional data — from earnings-call text to machine-learning tools and LLM-driven sentiment extraction — while underscoring the importance of broad, consistent datasets that can be applied across global universes. Against the backdrop of the S&P 500’s heavy top-weighting, Jessica details how diminished breadth affects opportunity sets, investor demand for alternative approaches, and the search for alpha outside the most crowded areas of the market. I hope you enjoy this episode of the Alpha Exchange, my conversation with Jessica Stauth.

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• Price is the Only Fundamental

  They say there’s always a bull market somewhere and a chart on doom commentary has surely been up and to the right. Perhaps it’s been the joint decline in the equity and crypto markets. NVDA is down 10% in November and Bitcoin is down almost twice that. Perhaps it’s been that there wasn’t a hard and fast enough of a catalyst to point to…no trade war, Powell presser, CPI surprise or earnings shortfall. These would have at least left us with plausible drivers, satisfying our need for markets to make sense. But when price operates as the only fundamental, sell-offs in asset prices take on much greater meaning.If there’s one idea that best captures my own curiosity about markets it lies in studying our presence in them. And here’s where the Soros theory of reflexivity is so relevant, especially to modern day risk-taking. Reflexivity is a brilliant concept and price is central to it. Price is surely an outcome that results from changes in economic data, corporate profits and adjustments in the stance of monetary policy. Today, price is more properly thought of as a driver of wealth, which in turn, allows it to drive investment behavior and also narratives. In the process, it can actually shape fundamentals.Through this lens, I share some of my recent thinking on the risk structure of the equity and crypto markets. I hope you find this interesting and useful. I wish you a wonderful, relaxing and highly caloric Thanksgiving holiday.

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• Megan Miller, Senior Portfolio Manager and Head of Options Solutions, Allspring Global Investments

  Welcome back to the Alpha Exchange. In today’s episode, I am joined by Megan Miller, Senior Portfolio Manager and Head of the Options Solutions team at Allspring Global Investments. Her career spans the extremes of market volatility—from learning options trading during the GFC to now overseeing option-based strategies across a $600 billion platform. The conversation centers on how her team uses a GARCH-like modeling framework as part of a systematic approach to forecast future realized volatility. From this, signals emerge as to which options are over or underpriced.Megan explains how the democratization of options has reshaped implementation. While call overwriting may appear simple, doing it efficiently at scale requires advanced technology, rule-based construction, and close attention to liquidity across both U.S. and global underlyings. She outlines how index-option overlays can deliver income, preserve stock-specific alpha from the underlying equities, and manage beta more deliberately—an especially relevant point as today’s markets continue to show wide dispersion between single-stock moves and index-level volatility.As client demand shifts with the market cycle, Megan highlights growing interest in income-oriented solutions, alongside renewed attention on hedging amid concerns around rates, AI-driven valuations, and geopolitical risk. She also underscores the rising importance of customization—whether for tax management, factor tilts, or exposure constraints.Megan closes with insights on mentorship, learning, and the value of embracing every stage of a career.I hope you enjoy this episode of the Alpha Exchange, my conversation with Megan Miller.

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