Decoding Geopolitics Podcast with Dominik Presl

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This is a conversation with Emil Kastehelmi, a military analyst and co-founder of Black Bird Group - a Finland-based independent intelligence organisation. Emil just came back from an extensive field research trip to the Ukrainian frontlines and so we use this opportunity to talk about what the war actually looks like in late 2026 when you're there.

We discuss whether the situation for the Russians is as bad in reality as it looks, what are their current tactics, why are they not very successful but why do Russians still use them anyway, what does the life of frontline infantryman today looks like in both the Russian and Ukrainian army, why Russian command is increasingly detached from reality and why is that a bigger problem than it seems or what’s the reason Russian losses are now breaking record highs and why they keep getting higher every month and what will all that mean for the big picture of the war. And much more.

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This is a conversation with Dr. Jung Pak - a former senior analyst at the CIA where she specialized on North Korea and who later served as the Special U.S. Representative for North Korea in the Biden Administration. Today she is a Distinguished Associate Fellow at the Centre for Security, Diplomacy, and Strategy at Vrije Universiteit Brussels, and author of the book “Becoming Kim Jong Un and someone with more insight into the country than almost anyone in the world.

Which is why it’s kind of incredible what she argues today: that North Korea is winning. In just a few years, North Korea went from a basket case to a country that’s never been wealthier with an army and military industry that’s never been more dangerous, fighting a war in Europe in which it plays an increasingly crucial role and a country that’s being courted by Russia, China and maybe even the U.S. to get Kim on their side.

With Dr. Pak we talk about how and why did that happen, what is North Korea really doing in Ukraine and what both Russia and North Korea get out of it, why is North Korea’s military so much more capable today than a few years ago, why is the Trump administration cancelling exercises with South Korea to not provoke North Korea or why are North Korea concerned about what Kim Jong Un might do with all this newly found power he now has. And much more.

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This is a conversation with Michael Clarke, a military analyst, a visiting professor of Defence Studies at King’s College London and Defence Analyst at SkyNews - and this episode is a deep dive into all the chaotic developments happening around the war in Ukraine - and what will they mean going forward. 

We talk about the United States cutting of intelligence and starlink for Ukraine - why was it taken away and why was it now restored. About the strange and sort of shady negotiations happening, why does Kremlin now says it wants Europe to be a part of it and why are European leaders starting to call Putin on their own, about whether it will lead anywhere and if it’s not exactly what Russia wants and what does the fact the United States seems to have switched sides mean for Ukraine and its military strategy. 

And about who is winning the war at the moment, whether the long-range strikes, the movement on the frontline or something else is what really matters the most - and why Michael believes that the war is quickly approaching a breaking point.

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This is a conversation with Timothy Snyder - a historian working on Central and Eastern Europe, politics of Russia and Ukraine and democracy and the threats it faces.

We talk about the spectacular shift of the United States to align with Russia against Ukraine, about what is real reason behind it, how far it can go and what it can lead to or about the future of Russia, Europe and the United States - and much more.

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This is a conversation with Dr. Vali Nasr, a Professor of International Affairs and Middle East Studies at Johns Hopkins University, specializing in Iran’s foreign policy and grand strategy. 

Seven months in we are at a strange point of the war that Vali calls a holding pattern and which seems like things are kind of stuck. But my guest argues that this status quo is not sustainable - that it doesn't work for either side and that very soon this phase will end - and that and that a next round of war is coming after - one that will be far more destructive than anything we’ve seen before.

In this conversation, we talk about the theories of victory and strategies to win against both the United States and Iran, why they are mutually exclusive and why there can't be a negotiated deal. Why the American strategy to starve Iran out will not work, why this war is bound to expand and why Donald Trump has found himself in a similar quagmire as Vladimir Putin in Ukraine - and much more.