Decoding Geopolitics Podcast with Dominik Presl

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This is a conversation with David Gioe - a Professor of Intelligence and International Security at King’s College London and a former member of the US intelligence, serving in the CIA and specializing in clandestine operations and covert action. And one of the most qualified people in the world to speak on the increasingly important question of Russia’s campaign of asymmetric warfare in Europe, ranging from sabotage to assassinations and gradually intensifying further and further. 

We speak about what is Russia’s real strategy behind these attacks, what is it actually planning to achieve and whether it’s working, what has been Europe’s response and why does it seem so limited. About the risks and benefits of what Europe can do to stop Russia’s campaign, what happens if Europe hits back and Russia just keeps doubling down - and how do you escalate to de-escalate if your opponent is willing to take things much further than you are. And about what is actually going to happen - whether Europe will do something or not, whether the United States will join and how far exactly is Russia going to take all this.

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This is a conversation with Michael Kimmage, a Russia expert, the director of the Kennan Institute who previously served at the US Department of State, where he was responsible for the Russia/Ukraine policy planning. And although he is a big supporter of Ukraine, he has quite a different view of the war and where it is going than most Western analysts.

The conventional wisdom is that although the end of the war is not around the corner, we are getting to a final stage - since Russia is coming under an increasing economic and political strain, its military progress is slow and the costs and the pain are growing. But according to Michael, none of that matters because even though the war is damaging Russia, it’s actually making its leader and his position stronger rather than weaker as the war and what he calls Putinism are now the same thing.
And the logical conclusion that he argues is that the war is not going to end this year, the next or the one after - but that it’s likely to turn into a generational conflict and one that is unlikely to stay isolated to Ukraine.

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This is a conversation with Peter Heather - a professor of history at the King’s College London and the world’s leading authority on the fall of the Roman Empire. Now this might sound a bit random since this is a podcast about contemporary geopolitics but Peter has recently written a book that takes his expertise much further. He makes an argument that all great empires of history go through the exact same cycle of rise and fall - including the present day American empire.
And that just like Rome it’s fall is caused by the same thing that made it a superpower in the first place - and that just like for Rome, it’s now on a swift and inevitable fall down. It’s a fascinating argument and one of my favorite discussions that provides a great framework for how to think about today - and what it is that we are - unfortunately - heading towards.

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➡️ Check out Adm. Bauer's book: https://www.amazon.nl/You-Want-Peace-Prepare-War/dp/9046833992

This is a conversation with Admiral Rob Bauer, a former Chief of Defence of the Dutch Armed Forces and until last year, the Chair of the NATO Military Committee - the most senior military officer role in NATO and one of the leading roles in the organisation.

In that role, he has seen the secret intelligence on the Russian build up in 2021 and their invasion of Ukraine in 2022. He has been in the rooms where world leaders discussed the invasion and he was responsible for the Alliance’s response.

All that makes this a unique conversation but today, he warns about a different war - a war between Russia and NATO. A war that he believes is likely coming - and that as he believes - we should all immediately prepare for.

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This is a conversation with George Barros, director at the Institute for Study of War and a long time Russia analyst with a deep insight into the war in Ukraine.
He and his team believe that over the past 3 years, the war has essentially looked exactly the same with only minor changes - but that has now changed and after 3 years, we have now entered a new and very different phase of the war. And after 3 years of relative stability, things are now quickly becoming a lot more volatile, unpredictable and potentially a lot more dangerous.
From the frontlines where both sides are increasingly pushing forward and using new tactics, the long-range campaigns are becoming increasingly destructive and intense to Russia, potentially preparing to attack a NATO member in the coming months and throw hundreds of thousands of new soldiers on the battlefield. And as the final limits that the war seemed to still have so far are increasingly coming off - it seems that things are about to get really out of control.