The Illusion of Power: Empty Threats & New Dependencies in a Fragmented Energy World
In this episode, Energy Flux founding editor Seb Kennedy discusses the latest developments in energy diplomacy. Chief among these is the European Union's recent decision to ban Russian LNG; the implications for EU aspirations of energy independence; and the trade-offs of relying on allies like the US and Qatar, which are using the EU's own sustainability regulations as a tool of diplomatic coercion. He also covers the US sanctions on Russian oil companies Rosneft and Lukoil, and the complexities of enforcing these measures. Seb connects the dots to uncover a troubling picture of geopolitical dysfunction, where decisive actions are undercut by empty threats and a glaring lack of enforcement. Are we witnessing a coherent strategy, or just a series of volatile half-measures that create the illusion of power? Key Topics Discussed: The EU's Accelerated LNG Ban: Why the 2027 deadline is a bigger deal than it seems, and the logistical headaches it creates for Central Europe.The Dependency Pivot: How swapping Russian gas for US LNG creates a new set of vulnerabilities.Empty Threats: Deconstructing why the US and Qatar's warnings over EU sustainability rules are a bluff that collapses under scrutiny.Sanctions & Enforcement: Analysing the new US sanctions on Lukoil and Rosneft, and why their success hinges on an enforcement track record that's far from perfect. To find out more about Energy Flux and to sign up for free updates, head to www.EnergyFlux.news.
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The Illusion of Power: Empty Threats & New Dependencies in a Fragmented Energy World
In this episode, Energy Flux founding editor Seb Kennedy discusses the latest developments in energy diplomacy.Chief among these is the European Union's recent decision to ban Russian LNG; the implications for EU aspirations of energy independence; and the trade-offs of relying on allies like the US and Qatar, which are using the EU's own sustainability regulations as a tool of diplomatic coercion.He also covers the US sanctions on Russian oil companies Rosneft and Lukoil, and the complexities of enforcing these measures.Seb connects the dots to uncover a troubling picture of geopolitical dysfunction, where decisive actions are undercut by empty threats and a glaring lack of enforcement.Are we witnessing a coherent strategy, or just a series of volatile half-measures that create the illusion of power?Key Topics Discussed:The EU's Accelerated LNG Ban: Why the 2027 deadline is a bigger deal than it seems, and the logistical headaches it creates for Central Europe.The Dependency Pivot: How swapping Russian gas for US LNG creates a new set of vulnerabilities.Empty Threats: Deconstructing why the US and Qatar's warnings over EU sustainability rules are a bluff that collapses under scrutiny.Sanctions & Enforcement: Analysing the new US sanctions on Lukoil and Rosneft, and why their success hinges on an enforcement track record that's far from perfect.Chapters & timestamps00:00 EU's decisive action on Russian LNG04:47 The paradox of 'energy independence'08:27 US sanctions on Russian oil companies12:05 The complexity of geopolitical coercionTo find out more about Energy Flux and to sign up for free updates, head to www.EnergyFlux.news.
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Gastech 2025 presentation: Mapping the storage-speculation nexus
In today's episode, Energy Flux founding editor Seb Kennedy runs through the paper he presented at the recent Gastech 2025 conference in Milan.The title of the paper is Mapping the Storage-Speculation Nexus: Hedge fund positioning and the TTF forward curve.The paper explores a novel methodology for identifying investment fund trading strategies on Dutch TTF, the benchmark European natural gas futures price.Seb explains the methodology in full, and what it tells us about last year's TTF bull run and subsequent dramatic correction in February and April this year.He concludes by suggesting policy reforms that could be explored to mitigate some of the speculation-driven price volatility that has characterised TTF in recent times.The full slide deck can be downloaded at www.EnergyFlux.news, where you can sign up for the Energy Flux newsletter -- where all this research was originally published in 2024 and early 2025.
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Energy Flux @ Gastech 2025 - Milan, Italy
Energy Flux founding editor Seb Kennedy tours the Gastech exhibition while reflecting on the main themes from the four-day conference.👉For more analysis, subscribe to the newsletter at www.EnergyFlux.news 👈SummaryIn this episode of the Energy Flux podcast, host Seb Kennedy reflects on the Gastech 2025 event, discussing the rising US presence in the LNG market, the economic realities of pricing, and the political implications of US LNG exports.He explores the future of US natural gas production and shares insights from his experiences at the event, emphasizing the complexities and challenges facing the energy sector.Key topics & takeawaysGastech was a momentous event at a significant historical junctureThe disconnect between public statements from industry leaders and market realities is wideningOver-investment in LNG capacity is reshaping the global glut depth & duration outlookTransatlantic margins will face significant compression (as detailed in lastweek’s Hot Take)North-West Europe-TTF price dislocation as lead indicator for distressed LNG cargo pricingHow merit order economics and cost inflation affect LNG investment attractivenessThe history of LNG, and the difference between conventional integrated export projects vs US LNG second waveThe political & economic implications of gas/electricity price inflation in the domestic US marketCan US shale production growth keep up with competition for upstream gas resources (LNG vs data centres)?👉 Read more & subscribe at www.EnergyFlux.news 👈
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Make Alaska Russian Again?!
The Trump–Putin summit in Alaska is set to be a geopolitical circus — and in this episode of the Energy Flux podcast, I unpack what’s at stake, who stands to gain, and why parts of Europe should be paying close attention.I cover:* Why some in Moscow might be eyeing Alaska’s mineral wealth* How a land swap or ceasefire could reshape Ukraine’s future* The sanctions relief carrot Trump might dangle — and why I’m sceptical* The Armenia–Azerbaijan peace deal and the Zangezur corridor gambit* What all this could mean for LNG markets already swimming in supplyThere’s also a quick update at the end on what I’ve been building at Energy Flux: new data tools, a members-only discussion forum, and an AI-powered daily briefing for premium subscribers.🎧 Listen now — the full episode is embedded in both the email and the web post.— SebTo hear more, visit energyflux.substack.com
Critical conversations about the role of natural gas and LNG in rapidly changing energy markets.Energy Flux is the home of fiercely independent energy market analysis, with a focus on European gas and global LNG.Find out more & subscribe at: https://www.EnergyFlux.news/
Ireland