The Energy Flux podcast

Energy Flux founder Seb Kennedy is joined by pod partner Victor Ponsford to discuss stalled US-Iran diplomacy, the implications of differing Hormuz reopening scenarios, natural gas price volatility, energy market manipulation, and the outlook for next winter and beyond.

Seb talks through his latest Deep Dive into volatility, why hedge funds seem unable to extend their record net long bullish position in TTF futures, and how this could be keeping a lid on gas prices despite the bullish setup.

The discussion focusses on near-term risks to European energy security, and ends with a look further ahead at the potential for a shift from crisis to abundance later this decade.

Chapters
00:00 Intro & Hormuz scenario survey results
12:50 Iran, JCPOA & demand destruction
16:35 EU gas prices, VaR & hedge funds
26:13 Market manipulation & EU gas storage
34:25 Famine to feast: gas market narrative whipsaw

Links
Hormuz Closure LNG Supply Impact Model
The Hidden Ceiling: Why TTF Can't Break €50/MWh

Energy Flux founder Seb Kennedy is joined by pod partner Victor Ponsford to discuss the latest diplomatic developments in the US-Iran war, ongoing tensions surrounding the Strait of Hormuz, and impacts on energy markets.

They explore modelling scenarios from the Energy Flux Hormuz Closure LNG Supply Impact Model, which quantifies whether and when the new wave of global LNG projects might offset lost Qatari and UAE capacity that's stuck behind the Hormuz chokepoint.

The discussion concludes with breaking news about Donald Trump's last-minute 'TACO' extension of the ceasefire, and the likelihood of a continued stalemate in this unenviable geopolitical situation.

Takeaways
Ongoing tensions in the Strait of Hormuz impact energy markets
Modeling scenarios provide insights into future LNG supply
Listeners can vote on the most likely Hormuz outcome
Diplomatic stalemate leads to continued uncertainty

Chapters
00:00 Introduction and Catching Up with Mad Markets
05:29 Configuring the Hormuz Model and Scenarios
17:10 Deep Uncertainty and Market Failure
36:33 Three Scenarios for the Future - Vote for your favourite
44:00 Breaking News and Continued Stalemate

Links
Hormuz Closure LNG Supply Impact Model
Deep Dive explaining model scenarios
Hormuz model YouTube tutorial
Listener poll: vote for your favourite scenario (or describe your own)

This emergency episode of the Energy Flux podcast discusses US President Donald Trump's decision to postpone his threat to destroy Iran's electricity system.

Host Seb Kennedy takes stock of the outlook for the Middle East energy way. He weighs up the implications of a diplomatic solution versus regime change in Iran on future Middle Eastern energy supply.

He explores the challenges faced in either scenario by Qatar's LNG industry, and for Asian LNG buyers who are bearing the brunt of the deepening global energy supply shock.

Chapters
00:00 - Decoding the significance of the latest 'TACO'
03:00 - Regime change and future Middle East energy exports
08:28 - The inevitability of irreversible gas demand destruction
13:14 - Iran ground invasion: unwinnable war?
22:12 - Unenviable choices: global economy and deepening supply deficit

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This emergency episode of the Energy Flux podcast discusses the Israeli attack on Iran's South Pars natural gas field and retaliatory attacks on Qatar's LNG facilities.

Energy Flux founding editor Seb Kennedy is joined by Victor Ponsford, strategic energy communications consultant, to assess the wide-ranging impacts of these unprecedented events on global gas supply and energy stability.

They explore the market response, shipping and transit costs, deep geopolitical uncertainty, historical context, and the potential for broader escalation beyond the Middle East region. The conversation delves into the discrepancy between physical reality on the ground vs. cautious market pricing, and the inadequacy of conventional geopolitical analysis in the face of irrational actors on the global stage.

Chapters
00:00 Update on Middle East Energy War
07:31 Initial Market Response
14:17 Physical Reality vs. Market Pricing
27:05 Regional Instability and Broader Escalation

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In this episode, Energy Flux founder Seb Kennedy is joined by special guest Victor Ponsford, an independent energy strategic communications consultant, to discuss wide-ranging impacts of US/Israeli war in Iran on global LNG and gas markets.

The conversation delves into the likely duration of the Hormuz closure, and why political and military factors are conspiring to keep this strategic maritime chokepoint closed for months rather than weeks.

They discuss how physical and financial market players in the European gas market are positioning to manage risk and capitalise on the repercussions of prolonged loss of 20% of global LNG supply.

And they explore the yawning gap between political rhetoric and physical reality on the ground in the Persian Gulf.

Article referenced:
US LNG war profits, quantified (Energy Flux)
Hormuz closure triggers record TTF liquidation (Energy Flux)

Chapters
00:00 Welcome to the Podcast and Guest Introduction
02:30 Hormuz Crisis Duration, and the Pain Factor in Diplomacy
05:31 US LNG Windfall Profits: Winners & Losers from Iran War
11:00 Impact on US Consumers and America's Domestic Gas Market
18:25 Diverse Uses of LNG Across Emerging Markets
24:19 Politics and Market Perception of Hormuz Closure
32:26 Impact of Unforeseen Outages and Future Market Conditions

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