The Energy Flux podcast

Energy Flux founder Seb Kennedy reports from Gastech 2026 in Bangkok, where the conversation revolved around significant geopolitical shifts affecting the LNG market, particularly focusing on the challenges faced by QatarEnergy and Saudi Arabia.

Seb expressed scepticism about the optimistic forecasts for LNG demand and highlighted the severe implications of ongoing conflicts in the Middle East on global energy supply... before he was challenged to a dance-off with a robot on the exhibition floor.

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Energy Flux founder Seb Kennedy reports from Gastech 2026 in Bangkok, where the conversation revolved around the significant geopolitical shifts affecting the LNG market, and in particular the challenges faced by QatarEnergy and Saudi Arabia.

Seb expressed scepticism about the optimistic forecasts for LNG demand and highlighted the severe implications of ongoing conflicts in the Middle East on global energy supply... and was challenged by a robot to a dance-off on the exhibition floor 🤖

Subscribe to the newsletter: https://energyflux.news/subscribe

Music licensed through Soundstripe. Code: RBM0CJDMLY7XGY3F, UO02CFURHFA8MQJA

Energy Flux founder Seb Kennedy is joined by pod partner Victor Ponsford to discuss stalled US-Iran diplomacy, the implications of differing Hormuz reopening scenarios, natural gas price volatility, energy market manipulation, and the outlook for next winter and beyond.

Seb talks through his latest Deep Dive into volatility, why hedge funds seem unable to extend their record net long bullish position in TTF futures, and how this could be keeping a lid on gas prices despite the bullish setup.

The discussion focusses on near-term risks to European energy security, and ends with a look further ahead at the potential for a shift from crisis to abundance later this decade.

Chapters
00:00 Intro & Hormuz scenario survey results
12:50 Iran, JCPOA & demand destruction
16:35 EU gas prices, VaR & hedge funds
26:13 Market manipulation & EU gas storage
34:25 Famine to feast: gas market narrative whipsaw

Links
Hormuz Closure LNG Supply Impact Model
The Hidden Ceiling: Why TTF Can't Break €50/MWh

Energy Flux founder Seb Kennedy is joined by pod partner Victor Ponsford to discuss the latest diplomatic developments in the US-Iran war, ongoing tensions surrounding the Strait of Hormuz, and impacts on energy markets.

They explore modelling scenarios from the Energy Flux Hormuz Closure LNG Supply Impact Model, which quantifies whether and when the new wave of global LNG projects might offset lost Qatari and UAE capacity that's stuck behind the Hormuz chokepoint.

The discussion concludes with breaking news about Donald Trump's last-minute 'TACO' extension of the ceasefire, and the likelihood of a continued stalemate in this unenviable geopolitical situation.

Takeaways
Ongoing tensions in the Strait of Hormuz impact energy markets
Modeling scenarios provide insights into future LNG supply
Listeners can vote on the most likely Hormuz outcome
Diplomatic stalemate leads to continued uncertainty

Chapters
00:00 Introduction and Catching Up with Mad Markets
05:29 Configuring the Hormuz Model and Scenarios
17:10 Deep Uncertainty and Market Failure
36:33 Three Scenarios for the Future - Vote for your favourite
44:00 Breaking News and Continued Stalemate

Links
Hormuz Closure LNG Supply Impact Model
Deep Dive explaining model scenarios
Hormuz model YouTube tutorial
Listener poll: vote for your favourite scenario (or describe your own)

This emergency episode of the Energy Flux podcast discusses US President Donald Trump's decision to postpone his threat to destroy Iran's electricity system.

Host Seb Kennedy takes stock of the outlook for the Middle East energy way. He weighs up the implications of a diplomatic solution versus regime change in Iran on future Middle Eastern energy supply.

He explores the challenges faced in either scenario by Qatar's LNG industry, and for Asian LNG buyers who are bearing the brunt of the deepening global energy supply shock.

Chapters
00:00 - Decoding the significance of the latest 'TACO'
03:00 - Regime change and future Middle East energy exports
08:28 - The inevitability of irreversible gas demand destruction
13:14 - Iran ground invasion: unwinnable war?
22:12 - Unenviable choices: global economy and deepening supply deficit

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