US Debt Dynamics, Hard Data May Shape 2H Dollar Bears: FX Moment
The structural dollar bearish case is holding into 2H, though fiscal considerations are what dollar bears may lean on going forward after being driven mainly by tariff uncertainty and the impact on the de-dollarization narrative. Bloomberg Intelligence’s Chief G10FX Strategist Audrey Childe-Freeman talks to Stuart Paul, US and Canada economist at Bloomberg Economics, about the US debt dynamics and how the fiscal outlook could shape and drive the dollar view into 2H. Stuart and Audrey also touch on the narrow path to a potential dollar recovery via short-term cyclical dynamics should the US economy prove more resilient than expected. This isn’t Bloomberg Intelligence’s central working assumption, but it’s a scenario worth acknowledging.
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19:29
Sue Hill on T-Bill Scarcity and Central Clearing: Macro Matters
“I’m just waiting for the T-bill tsunami to come, and it can’t come soon enough,” says Sue Hill, senior portfolio manager and head of the Government Liquidity Group at Federated Hermes. Hill joins Macro Matters hosts Ira Jersey, Bloomberg Intelligence chief US rates strategist, and Will Hoffman, BI’s senior associate US-Canada rates strategist, to discuss the state of the money-market complex amid debt-ceiling-induced supply scarcity. The trio examine the limits and nuances of alternative liquidity-management wrappers, where individual needs and mandates dominate asset compositions. They discuss the debt ceiling, and how her team manages allocation decisions around low but non-zero default risks, as well as unattractive yields relative to alternatives. Also addressed was how the Federal Reserve’s RRP facility may have a permanent home as part of the money fund ecosystem, and the industry’s slow but steady push toward central clearing as the mid-2027 deadline inches closer.
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25:58
Canyon’s Potts Leans Into CRE Complexity Premium: FICC Special
Commercial real estate lending remains highly sensitive to US interest rates, yet it also offers a much wider complexity premium than competing fixed income asset classes, with potential for outsized investor returns. Robin Potts, chief investment officer of Real Estate at Canyon Partners, joins BI chief fixed income strategist Damian Sassower to discuss her firm’s approach to risk management, recovery mechanisms, loan origination and product evolution. Potts and Sassower discuss financing structures, liquidity trends, operating expenses and the broader landscape for institutional capital.
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21:58
Canyon’s Kivitz on Cycles, Risk and Uncertainty: Credit Crunch
Market uncertainty can create its own opportunity, and when it comes to investing, “rules are meant to be broken in terms of finding attractive situations.” That’s according to Jeffrey Kivitz, chief investment officer for Canyon Capital Advisors, who joins Bloomberg Intelligence’s Noel Hebert and Sam Geier on this episode of Credit Crunch to discuss the firm’s approach to distressed and opportunistic credit. We talk about pricing risk amid uncertainty, solving for borrower needs, why the ingredients may be in place to see and more traditional, elongated credit cycle, and much more.
The Credit Crunch podcast is part of BI’s FICC Focus series.
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56:53
Bond Tax Exemption Lives On, for Now: Masters of the Muniverse
Municipal bonds scored a win in President Donald Trump’s “big, beautiful bill” passed by the House earlier this week. They didn’t lose tax-exempt status, though the bill now moves to the Senate, where it can be changed and sent back to the House for another vote. BI analysts Eric Kazatsky and Karen Altamirano are joined by BI tax analyst Andrew Silverman and BI policy analyst Nathan Dean to discuss the legislation. The team discusses the legislation’s impact on the tax-exempt municipal market, federal spending and the bond market’s signaling of displeasure with deficits.
Ireland