Tariff Mercy Helps Sterling, but Cyclical Pain Stays: FX Moment
The pound may be getting a bounce from the optimism that the UK could dodge President Donald Trump’s tariffs as trade headlines roil global markets, but not all is rosy for the British currency on the domestic cyclical front. In this episode of FX Moment, Bloomberg Intelligence’s chief G-10 FX strategist Audrey Childe-Freeman and Jordan Rochester, head of FICC strategy for EMEA at Mizuho Bank, discuss the pound’s position vs. peers on the tariff narrative front, UK’s near-term economic prospects and the Bank of England monetary policy outlook ahead of the Feb. 6 meeting. They also look beyond the positive dollar narrative to identify strong G-10 FX views for 1Q, with the bullish cyclical and structural yen case in the limelight at a time when defensive currency positioning makes sense.
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Global Central Bank Review and Geopolitical Risks: Macro Matters
Markets may be having to assess more than the normal number of cross currents in the economy right now, with a new US administration, stock volatility and a host of geopolitical developments. On this episode of the Bloomberg Intelligence Macro Matters podcast, host and BI chief US rates strategist Ira Jersey is joined by Frank Rose, president of Chevalier Strategic Advisors, to discuss the primary geopolitical risks the US faces in coming years. They also review key appointees from the Trump administration and their potential influence on international policy, while exploring the threats stemming from Eurasia, with a focus on Russia-China relations. Jersey is also joined by BI’s Chief European rates strategist Huw Worthington and senior rates strategy associate Will Hoffman. They examine the results of the recent Bank of Canada, Federal Reserve and European Central Bank meetings, and what those may mean for the path of monetary and yield curves.
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Arini’s Lemssouguer on Dislocated European Credit: Credit Crunch
European credit markets have gone through a significant shift in market dynamics over the past five years, as low-interest-rate debt is coming due and traditional sources of financing retreat. Bloomberg Intelligence analysts Noel Hebert and Sam Geier are joined by Arini Capital Management CIO and Founder Hamza Lemssouguer on this episode of Credit Crunch to discuss how Arini is capitalizing on structural inefficiencies in high yield credit markets. The conversation gets into the founding of the firm and their approach to running a long/short book before touching on the extension into CLOs, dispersion despite tight spreads and the impact of shifting costs of capital.
The Credit Crunch podcast is part of BI’s FICC Focus series. Listen on Apple Podcasts and Spotify.
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Crypto, Multi-Asset Volatility With CBOE: All Options Considered
It may be a good year for the volatility market as pro-business government policies and elevated equity exposure that drive market overshoots could see high reactivity on the downside. In this edition of the All Options Considered podcast, BI’s Chief Global Derivatives Strategist Tanvir Sandhu gives an update on market volatility and is joined by Catherine Clay, Global Head of Derivatives at Cboe. They discuss cross-asset volatility, flows and crypto options market.
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Benefit Street’s Byrne on Multifamily CRE Appeal: Credit Crunch
As others head for the exit from the commercial real estate (CRE) sector, Benefit Street Partners President Richard Byrne views this as the perfect time to fill the funding void that could arise. Byrne joins hosts Noel Hebert and Sam Geier of Bloomberg Intelligence on Credit Crunch to discuss the budding opportunity in CRE as a result of higher interest rates. The discussion gets into CRE debt vs equity, an impending CRE maturity wall, the multifamily sweet spot, relative value within direct lending and much more. Credit Crunch is part of the FICC Focus podcast.
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