Risk of Ruin

Dr. Kenneth Regan is a professor of computer science at the University of Buffalo. He is perhaps best known for his work to prove and disprove allegations of cheating in chess.

In this episode Ken talks about his discovery that he had a unique background to approach this problem, his model for evaluating chess matches, and the important issues that are weighed in any suspected cheating case.

Ken's website: https://cse.buffalo.edu/~regan/
Email the show - risk of ruin pod at gmail
Follow us on twitter: 
https://x.com/halfkelly
00:00 Before we start
00:27 A moment of scientific joy
02:54 An embarrassing admission
04:20 No basis to establish cheating
05:54 Inference from imperfect information
07:10 A form of language
08:40 From 1400 to nearly master
09:33 Dots and lines
10:54 Too often, with Fritz 9
13:13 29 of 32
14:46 Loaded for bear
17:53 Elo in two minutes
20:00 A thousand-sided die
22:08 Four motives
25:03 Over the board is hard
26:17 Cheating in small increments
27:54 Fourth and 15
29:47 A 2850 signal
31:47 Ceilings
33:47 Not a magic button
35:55 How sure is sure?
37:47 Four times the data
39:51 Fast moves, better moves
44:10 Look elsewhere
48:55 The frozen envelope
51:21 Kramnik accuses Nakamura
52:50 Frozen ratings
54:32 1845 on the wall chart
57:18 The dog that didn't bark
59:21 Doing science faithfully

Support the show by subscribing to the Premium Substack. (Search "ARCHIVE" for past paywalled episodes.)
Guest:
Zvi Mowshowitz grew up playing Magic the Gathering. He played on the Pro Tour, and is now in the Magic Pro Tour Hall of Fame. He then moved on to sports betting, and eventually became a trader for Pinnacle Sports. Zvi has also worked for the quant trading firm Jane Street.
Zvi currently writes the Don't Worry About the Vase Substack which provides daily expansive coverage of AI. You can follow him on X.
Email the show: risk of ruin pod at gmail
Follow the show on X: 
Antonino DeRosa on Gambling With an Edge.
OpenAI Executive Sounds Pretty Nervous About AI

Canzhi is a programmer and also part of a sports betting syndicate. He talks about his path from coding in middle school to computer science in college, to becoming a software developer. Then he left the mainstream world for professional gambling.
Canzhi also talks about using OpenAI Codex to do the data science work that his betting group relies on.
Follow Canzhi on Twitter: https://x.com/canzhiye
Follow the show on Twitter: https://x.com/halfkelly
Substack Archive: https://riskofruinpod.substack.com/
(To find past paywalled episodes of the show search the word "ARCHIVE" in the search bar in the top right).
Email the show: risk of ruin pod at gmail

Cartwright is an advantage player and is in a unique position to comment on the intersection of programming and advantage play. He was a software engineer until he left that career for full time gambling. In the past he has used his programming skills to hit vulnerable table games. Now he is more focused on sports. He talks about AI and advantage play. 
Cartwright on Gambling With an Edge: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jJ1IXeW9y8s
Subscribe to the premium Substack: https://riskofruinpod.substack.com/
Twitter: https://x.com/halfkelly
Email: risk of ruin pod at gmail

Andrew Martin is the CEO of Fairlight Capital. Fairlight invests in small call value stocks all over the world. In this episode Andrew talks about finding these value names, his diligence process, the firm's use of AI, and how to know whether to sell a loser.
Fairlight's investor letters: https://www.fairlightcapital.com/investor-letters
Follow Andrew on Twitter: https://x.com/Fairlight_Cap
Follow the show on Twitter: https://x.com/halfkelly
Support the show: https://riskofruinpod.substack.com/
LEGAL DISCLAIMER:  This content is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial, legal, or tax advice. Investing involves risk, including potential loss of principal. Always consult with a certified financial professional to consider your personal circumstances before making any investment decisions.