Economic Policy To The Fore | Jason Furman on Deregulation, Tax Cuts, Tariffs, and Healthcare
Jason Furman, former Chairman of Council of Economic Advisers for President Obama and Aetna Professor of the Practice of Economic Policy jointly at Harvard Kennedy School (HKS) and the Department of Economics at Harvard University, joins Monetary Matters to share his view of the Trump administration’s “three-legged stool” of tariffs, deregulation, and tax cuts. Recorded May 20, 2025.
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37:39
Fiscal Decay, EM Parallels, and What’s Next for the Dollar | Nicolás Dujovne
Nicolás Dujovne, CIO and founder of Tenac Asset
Management and former Treasury Minister of Argentina joins Monetary Matters to discuss the evolution of emerging market economies, EM debt investing, and why even though the US’s failure to address fiscal issues may be reminiscent of emerging markets it still falls short of full EM status even if it risks the US Dollar’s reserve currency status over the long run. Dujovne also identifies the opportunities he's watching now, explains why he thinks the dollar is moving lower, and makes the case for EM debt becoming more common in investor portfolios.
Learn more about Tenac Asset Management: https://tenacam.com
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Timestamps:
00:46 The Impact of the Dollar on EMs Like Argentina
04:59 The Impact of the Fed and US Rated on EMs Experiencing Crisis
08:15 The Causes of Argentina's Inflation
15:17 The Mechanics of Money Printing
18:38 Macro Investing in Emerging Markets
28:30 Dollar Bonds vs Local Currency Bonds
34:55 Why Do Countries Issue Dollar Bonds?
40:05 The Case for EM Debt as an Asset Class
44:21 Balance of Payments
47:51 Economics vs Trading
52:58 Rebalancing the US vs the Rest of World
55:40 The Weakening US Dollar
57:54 Tariff Impacts on US GDP
01:01:36 One Year Dollar Outlook
01:03:25 Current Positioning
01:05:26 Current Market Anomalies
01:08:52 Is the US Becoming an Emerging Market
01:13:54 LATAM Tariff Winners
01:17:16 Opinions on Milei
01:21:18 Argentina Market Views
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1:25:14
The Holy Grail of Macro | Prometheus Macro’s Aahan Menon on Why Tariffs Won’t Cause A Recession And Why Buying Dips Only Works In An Expansion
Monetary Matters listeners can get a 25% discount to Prometheus Macro: https://www.prometheus-macro.com/monetarymatters
Aahan Menon, founder and CEO of Prometheus Macro, returns to Monetary Matters to share his in-depth macro process. He talks about how returns come from three factors: carry, mean reversion, and trend, and about how these three factors interact with other macro variables. Prometheus Macro is a trusted source for Jack and Monetary Matters listeners can get discounted access to Aahan’s research service by using the link below. Annual subscriptions can be purchased at 25% off the monthly subscription rate, and monthly subscribers can get a 10% discounted rate.
https://www.prometheus-macro.com/monetarymatters
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1:43:54
Is Private Credit a Systemic Risk? (A Regulator’s View) | Fabio Natalucci
Fabio Natalucci, CEO of the Anderson Institute for Finance & Economics, joins
Monetary Matters to discuss his work at the IMF on the potential risks to the
global financial system that the growth of private credit may pose. They also
discuss the affects that tariffs will have not just on the economy but the
functioning of the financial system.Learn more about the Anderson Institute: https://www.andersen.com/
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Timestamps:
00:00 Intro
00:48 A Regulator's View of Private Credit
12:58 Private Credit Replacing the Banking System
15:46 New Types of Private Credit Investors
19:34 Private Credit Liquidity
24:11 Private Credit Leverage
29:00 Geographical Regulatory Risks
30:23 Is Private Credit Investment Grade?
36:01 Private Capital's Entry to the Insurance Business
41:49 Derivatives in Private Credit and Collateralized Fund Obligations
45:44 Economic and Financial Implications of Tariffs
01:01:53 The Risk of Foreigners Selling US Assets
01:09:53 Taiwan Life Insurance Markets
01:12:37 Does Trump Want a Weaker Dollar?
01:15:37 Lack of Consumption Ex-US
01:20:29 The Anderson Institute
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1:25:12
The Fed and The Flu | David Kotok on How Pandemics Transform Economies and Markets
David Kotok, Co-Founder & Strategic Advisor at Cumberland Advisors, joins Monetary Matters to discuss insights from his new book, “The Fed and the Flu: Parsing Pandemic Economic Shocks.” Kotok cites data over millennia to show that pandemics typically cause natural real interest rates to decline, and productivity and inequality to rise. Kotok argues that we must prepare for the next pandemic and shares his view on the origin of the COVID virus. Part II of an interview recorded on April 4, 2025, with the first part having aired on April 7, 2025.
David Kotok’s book, “The Fed and the Flu: Parsing Pandemic Economic Shocks”:
https://www.amazon.com/Fed-Flu-Parsing-Pandemic-Economic-ebook/dp/B0DCK1ZHJT
Paper, “Longer-Run Economic Consequences of Pandemics”: https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w26934/w26934.pdf
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Ireland