Monetary Matters with Jack Farley

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In this episode of Monetary Matters, host Jack Farley sits down with Jim Masturzo, Chief Investment Officer at Research Affiliates, to discuss the changing macroeconomic landscape and the underlying flaws of the traditional 60/40 portfolio. Masturzo explains that the recent positive correlation between stocks and bonds requires investors to find true diversifiers, though he still sees tactical opportunities in trading range-bound bond yields. The conversation explores the AI-driven market narrative, with Masturzo highlighting that the U.S. market is significantly overvalued at a CAPE ratio of 40 and examining the resulting ripple effects on software stock valuations. Finally, he details his bullish conviction trade on commodities amidst severe geopolitical supply chain risks and introduces his firm's new fundamentally weighted RAFI Growth Index.

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Timestamps:

00:00 Market Overvaluation Setup

00:53 Meet Jim Masturzo

01:23 60 40 Under Pressure

02:50 Finding True Diversifiers

06:24 Why Yields Stay Bounded

11:29 Government Backstops And YCC

14:09 Fed Balance Sheet Fears

17:28 Sponsor Break HFGM

19:44 Range Intact Tactical View

25:26 Private Credit Shift Risks

28:36 Stocks Rally And AI Narrative

33:31 CAPE Valuations Explained

36:19 Earnings Growth Skepticism

39:00 AI Adoption Reality Check

45:53 AI Investing Limits

49:26 Why Earnings Forecasts Fail

54:18 SaaSpocalypse and Risk Framework

01:02:37 Valuation Multiples and GAAP Focus

01:06:44 Conviction Trades Commodities and Bonds

01:14:38 Research Affiliates and RAFI Indices

01:16:21 Fundamental Growth Index Explained

Learn more about the Fundrise Income Fund here: https://fundrise.com/mm

In this episode of Other People's Money, GTIS Partners founder and CIO Tom Shapiro breaks down how massive macroeconomic shifts, including AI and inflation, are reshaping the global real estate landscape. He explains why his firm is heavily betting on a San Francisco recovery driven by the booming AI sector, and how they are scooping up properties at steep discounts to replacement costs. Shapiro also details the severe oversupply challenges currently stalling popular Sun Belt cities, alongside the firm's strategic push into industrial logistics to capitalize on domestic reshoring trends. Finally, he shares decades of expertise on navigating the complex Brazilian real estate market, offering a masterclass on global investment strategies in a high-interest-rate environment.

Learn more about GTIS Partners: https://www.gtispartners.com/

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Timestamps:

00:00 Intro

01:30 Macro Shocks and Inflation

02:30 AI Disruption Risks

04:27 Tracking Jobs and Households

06:09 Immigration and Rate Politics

08:03 Build to Rent Bill Fallout

11:57 Affordability and Mortgage Rates

14:41 Fundrise Income Fund

16:36 Regional Winners and Losers

17:12 Sun Belt Oversupply Pain

19:57 San Francisco Comeback Thesis

24:35 AI Occupancy and Investment Plays

28:28 Picking Buildings Block by Block

30:02 Picking the Right Building

30:21 Safety and City Recovery

33:39 AI Jobs and Office Demand

35:17 Froth and Real Revenues

37:39 Data Centers NIMBY Debate

39:54 Reshoring and Warehouse Boom

44:09 Real Estate Capital Markets

49:07 Why Brazil Worked

52:46 Brazil Rates and Currency

55:15 Politics and China Pull

58:44 US Outlook and Wrap Up

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Andreas Steno Larsen, macro researcher from Real Vision, joins Max Wiethe on Other People’s Money to discuss the shifting macro regime where inflation has returned and is pushing US Treasury yields over 5%. They discuss the market’s expectation for interest rate hikes and how the new Fed chair Kevin Warsh will react to this environment. They also discuss the other dominant force in markets right now, the AI buildout. Steno Larsen argues that things are going to get crazier before the cycle turns later this year, but in the meantime the shortages in the AI supply chain are creating unappreciated winners in the technology sector.

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Timestamps:

00:00 Intro

00:50 Inflation and the Big Macro Shift

01:43 Transitory Inflation Debate

04:19 Bond Trade Timing

06:13 Steep Curve Playbook

09:41 Why Steepening Helps

12:24 Strong Dollar EM Risk

14:35 HFGM Unlimited Funds

16:51 India Data Versus Rupee

18:24 Energy Supply Countdown

21:23 LatAm Underperformance

23:27 AI Inflation Link

26:52 Korea Semis Surge

28:26 Momentum with Earnings

30:39 Quantum Hype Warning

32:24 Semis Cycle Peak Question

34:47 Late Cycle Winners Flip

39:01 IPO Supply and Rotation

43:35 Valuation Metrics Reframed

46:11 Hidden Scarcity Trade

49:21 Goods Inflation Returns

51:15 AI Jobs and Robotics

54:07 White Collar Disruption Map

59:53 LLMs and Bad Facts

01:04:47 Momentum vs. Value Edge

01:06:15 Rapid Fire Outlook and Wrap

John Cocke, Deputy Chief Investment Officer at Corbin Capital, joins Jack to discuss the world of private credit. With so much discussion over the asset class, John provides some much-needed context. While there are some areas of concern, John rejects the doomer narratives commonly seen on social media and sees opportunity on the horizon. Jack and John also discuss data center financing and the important, yet often missed, details of the private credit space. Recorded on May 15th, 2026.

 

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Chen Xu, counsel at Debevoise & Plimpton, joins Jack to discuss the Basel III framework and endgame. The Basel III framework is extremely important to the future of banking and credit. Few people are as qualified to explain this complex agreement more than Chen Xu. Chen explains what Basel III is and how it will affect many different areas of the financial world. Recorded on May 1st, 2026.

 

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Xu on LinkedIn https://www.linkedin.com/in/chen-xu-a483b75/

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Publications https://www.debevoise.com/chenxu/?tab=insightsandpublications

 

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