Monetary Matters with Jack Farley

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In this episode of Other People's Money, GTIS Partners founder and CIO Tom Shapiro breaks down how massive macroeconomic shifts, including AI and inflation, are reshaping the global real estate landscape. He explains why his firm is heavily betting on a San Francisco recovery driven by the booming AI sector, and how they are scooping up properties at steep discounts to replacement costs. Shapiro also details the severe oversupply challenges currently stalling popular Sun Belt cities, alongside the firm's strategic push into industrial logistics to capitalize on domestic reshoring trends. Finally, he shares decades of expertise on navigating the complex Brazilian real estate market, offering a masterclass on global investment strategies in a high-interest-rate environment.

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Timestamps:

00:00 Intro

01:30 Macro Shocks and Inflation

02:30 AI Disruption Risks

04:27 Tracking Jobs and Households

06:09 Immigration and Rate Politics

08:03 Build to Rent Bill Fallout

11:57 Affordability and Mortgage Rates

14:41 Fundrise Income Fund

16:36 Regional Winners and Losers

17:12 Sun Belt Oversupply Pain

19:57 San Francisco Comeback Thesis

24:35 AI Occupancy and Investment Plays

28:28 Picking Buildings Block by Block

30:02 Picking the Right Building

30:21 Safety and City Recovery

33:39 AI Jobs and Office Demand

35:17 Froth and Real Revenues

37:39 Data Centers NIMBY Debate

39:54 Reshoring and Warehouse Boom

44:09 Real Estate Capital Markets

49:07 Why Brazil Worked

52:46 Brazil Rates and Currency

55:15 Politics and China Pull

58:44 US Outlook and Wrap Up

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Andreas Steno Larsen, macro researcher from Real Vision, joins Max Wiethe on Other People’s Money to discuss the shifting macro regime where inflation has returned and is pushing US Treasury yields over 5%. They discuss the market’s expectation for interest rate hikes and how the new Fed chair Kevin Warsh will react to this environment. They also discuss the other dominant force in markets right now, the AI buildout. Steno Larsen argues that things are going to get crazier before the cycle turns later this year, but in the meantime the shortages in the AI supply chain are creating unappreciated winners in the technology sector.

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Timestamps:

00:00 Intro

00:50 Inflation and the Big Macro Shift

01:43 Transitory Inflation Debate

04:19 Bond Trade Timing

06:13 Steep Curve Playbook

09:41 Why Steepening Helps

12:24 Strong Dollar EM Risk

14:35 HFGM Unlimited Funds

16:51 India Data Versus Rupee

18:24 Energy Supply Countdown

21:23 LatAm Underperformance

23:27 AI Inflation Link

26:52 Korea Semis Surge

28:26 Momentum with Earnings

30:39 Quantum Hype Warning

32:24 Semis Cycle Peak Question

34:47 Late Cycle Winners Flip

39:01 IPO Supply and Rotation

43:35 Valuation Metrics Reframed

46:11 Hidden Scarcity Trade

49:21 Goods Inflation Returns

51:15 AI Jobs and Robotics

54:07 White Collar Disruption Map

59:53 LLMs and Bad Facts

01:04:47 Momentum vs. Value Edge

01:06:15 Rapid Fire Outlook and Wrap

John Cocke, Deputy Chief Investment Officer at Corbin Capital, joins Jack to discuss the world of private credit. With so much discussion over the asset class, John provides some much-needed context. While there are some areas of concern, John rejects the doomer narratives commonly seen on social media and sees opportunity on the horizon. Jack and John also discuss data center financing and the important, yet often missed, details of the private credit space. Recorded on May 15th, 2026.

 

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Chen Xu, counsel at Debevoise & Plimpton, joins Jack to discuss the Basel III framework and endgame. The Basel III framework is extremely important to the future of banking and credit. Few people are as qualified to explain this complex agreement more than Chen Xu. Chen explains what Basel III is and how it will affect many different areas of the financial world. Recorded on May 1st, 2026.

 

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Publications https://www.debevoise.com/chenxu/?tab=insightsandpublications

 

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Monetary Matters is now streaming daily as part of Monitoring the Situation. Join us live on X and YouTube from 4 to 5 PM ET Monday through Friday @mtsituation for live interviews and analysis breaking down the market’s most important situations. This is recording of a recent live interview from MTS.

Veteran macro trader Andy Constan joins Monetary Matters live on Monitoring the Situation to discuss why he has 100% confidence that AI stocks are in a bubble. The nuance though is that unlike most bubbles, where the bubble is in unsustainable prices with no earnings, this is a bubble in unsustainable earnings that will eventually fall and make the current somewhat reasonable prices look lofty in hindsight. Constan highlights metrics like the $400 billion in S&P 500 earnings expectations and the over 60% of that is supposed to accrue to AI winners, and argues that based on projected GDP growth that their simply “isn’t enough pie for all of the S&P 500 to eat” without it coming other very important areas of the economy.

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Timestamps:

00:00 Earnings Bubble Thesis

01:22 Defining a Bubble Regime

04:02 Past Bubbles and Patterns

07:57 Why PE Looks Normal

08:57 GDP Pie Math Reality

13:06 Unlimited ETFs HFGM

15:23 AI ROI and Inflation Risks

18:34 Three Cohorts Funding Compute

23:36 What a Real Pop Looks Like

28:22 Timing and Investor Discipline

30:27 Trading It Collars Not Shorts

33:13 Closing and Sign Off