Talking Billions with Bogumil Baranowski

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Tobias Carlisle is founder and portfolio manager of Acquirer’s Funds managing two deep value ETFs, acclaimed author of five investment books including his newest Soldier of Fortune blending Warren Buffett and Sun Tzu’s strategic wisdom, and host of the popular Value After Hours podcast.
Episode Sponsor: Fiscal AI is a modern data terminal that gives investors instant access to twenty years of financials, earnings transcripts, and extensive segment and KPI data—use my link for a two-week free trial plus 15% off: https://fiscal.ai/talkingbillions/
3:00 - Tobias shares his unique upbringing in Australian outback where school ended in grade 10 and included animal husbandry—learning to shear sheep and work cattle in what he calls a formative contrast to his later academic life at boarding school.
6:00 - Transition to law career: Started at a national law firm in April 2000, peak of dot-com bubble. “I missed out on all of the fun parties on the way up and I just saw the carnage on the way down,” which opened his eyes to the importance of cash flow over hype.
9:00 - Early exposure to activist investing: Witnessed corporate raiders targeting dot-coms with cash on balance sheets, killing the business and liquidating or using as platform for acquisitions. This low-downside, high-complexity approach fascinated him.
14:00 - The telecom case study: Worked with two entrepreneurs who turned $100,000 each into a $600 million exit by building dark fiber infrastructure and data centers. “They were the best telecom lawyers in Australia and they weren’t lawyers”—emphasizing the power of combining financial, technological, and regulatory understanding.
28:00 - Philosophy behind Soldier of Fortune: Explores Warren Buffett as risk-taker rather than risk-avoider, connecting his strategic thinking to Sun Tzu’s Art of War. The book examines 13 laws of strategic advantage.
45:00 - Discussion of key laws: “Attack weakness with strength” and “seize the initiative”—Buffett’s approach to investing in moments when he has maximum advantage, like deploying capital during the 2008 crisis.
1:08:00 - The surfing analogy: Experienced investors are “not only on the right wave, but at the right spot on that wave”—getting positioning and timing right rather than just working harder.
1:09:00 - Impact on his own investing: “Shot selection becomes so much better the longer that you do something...if I’m just a little bit more patient, I know that there is a bigger wave coming.”
1:11:30 - Definition of success: “A happy, healthy family and time with my kids...watching them play sport. That’s really my definition of success.”
Podcast Program – Disclosure Statement
Blue Infinitas Capital, LLC is a registered investment adviser and the opinions expressed by the Firm’s employees and podcast guests on this show are their own and do not reflect the opinions of Blue Infinitas Capital, LLC. All statements and opinions expressed are based upon information considered reliable although it should not be relied upon as such. Any statements or opinions are subject to change without notice.
Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed.

Drew Cohen is the founder of Speedwell Research and a portfolio manager at Davidson Kahn Capital Management, who uncovers competitive advantages by reading entire company histories spanning decades of transcripts and annual reports.
The episode is sponsored by TenzingMEMO — the AI-powered market intelligence platform I use daily for smarter company analysis. Code BILLIONS gets you an extended trial + 10% off.
https://www.tenzingmemo.com/

3:00 - Drew describes his early money attraction, collecting dollar bills at age five and discovering the power of interest at his bar mitzvah, leading his father to introduce him to stocks.
5:00 - First investing experiences: buying leveraged ETFs at 14, making $100 in two minutes, then immediately losing $100, learning markets can create and destroy wealth quickly.
8:00 - Exploration of technical analysis through Dow Theory and Elliott Wave, realizing these pattern-based approaches kept adding rules to fit outcomes, concluding they were “BS” and abandoning them.
10:00 - Discovering “The Snowball” at 17 changed everything, learning Buffett’s lessons without having to lose more money personally through trial and error.
15:00 - Deep research methodology explained: reading every transcript and annual report since IPO to find patterns that map onto future transitions and understand how companies behave under different conditions.
20:00 - Meta example: three instances of monetization fears (desktop to mobile, feed to stories, stories to Reels) that all proved unfounded when studying company history.
23:00 - Copart case study: finding one 2004 earnings call where they mentioned market share, crucial data point never discussed again but essential for understanding current competitive position.
35:00 - Discussion of reading as filtering mechanism: eliminates 95% of companies immediately, leaving only truly interesting businesses worth deeper analysis.
45:00 - Career trajectory: Goldman Sachs sell-side to Capital Group buy-side, learning institutional constraints firsthand before founding independent research firm.
55:00 - Sell-side research revelation: buy ratings are relative to coverage universe, not absolute recommendations, creating fundamental misunderstanding of analyst intentions.
57:00 - Buy-side problems: short-term performance pressures, peer judgment, window dressing (adding Nvidia when it’s hot to satisfy clients), non-investment prerogatives polluting decisions.
59:00 - Buffett’s genius: structuring Berkshire with long-term capital he controlled, avoiding quarterly performance pressures that would have produced completely different results.
1:00:23 - Success definition: doing what you want each day without trading tomorrow for today, echoing Naval’s concept that you’re retired when you stop deferring gratification.
Podcast Program – Disclosure Statement
Blue Infinitas Capital, LLC is a registered investment adviser and the opinions expressed by the Firm’s employees and podcast guests on this show are their own and do not reflect the opinions of Blue Infinitas Capital, LLC. All statements and opinions expressed are based upon information considered reliable although it should not be relied upon as such. Any statements or opinions are subject to change without notice.
Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed.

Scroll down, and find the earlier 3 episodes of 100 Year Thinkers.
Matt Zeigler and I had the privilege of hosting Robert Hagstrom (The Warren Buffett Way) and Chris Mayer (100 Baggers) for a special 100-Year Thinkers Edition of the Excess Returns Podcast.
Two legendary investors and authors. One hour packed with timeless wisdom on long-term thinking and wealth creation. This is the conversation we’ve been wanting to have—and we think you’ll find it as valuable as we did.
Available now on Excess Returns Podcast and Talking Billions. 🎧
I’m excited to share this episode with you—it’s reposted here with permission and blessing from both Matt and Jack. Don’t miss it! And follow their work, links below.

The 100 Year Thinkers: Long-Term Compounding in a Short-Term World
Chris’ New Book
https://shop.generalsemantics.org/pro...
Robert’s Book: Investing: The Last Liberal Art
https://www.amazon.com/Investing-Libe...
When Robert Hagstrom and Chris Mayer sit down together, the conversation goes far beyond stock picking. Join them, along with Matt Zeigler and Bogumil Baranowski to explore how investors think, how language shapes decision making, and why many of the debates dominating today’s markets miss the deeper point. Drawing on ideas from general semantics, mental models, and long-term capital compounding, the discussion reframes market concentration, AI, valuation, and risk through a more durable lens built for long-horizon investors.
Topics covered in this episode

Why high valuation multiples are not automatically a sign of overvaluation

What return on invested capital really tells you about long-term compounding

The difference between describing a business and understanding the business itself

Market concentration, index construction, and why benchmarks can mislead investors

The idea of time binding and what investors can learn from history without overfitting it

Map versus territory and how financial statements can obscure underlying business reality

AI investing, capital allocation, and separating durable businesses from speculative narratives

Why many valuation debates are really disagreements about time horizon

How language, labels, and mental shortcuts create overconfidence in investing

What it takes for a company to compound capital over decades, not years

Podcast Program – Disclosure Statement
Blue Infinitas Capital, LLC is a registered investment adviser and the opinions expressed by the Firm’s employees and podcast guests on this show are their own and do not reflect the opinions of Blue Infinitas Capital, LLC. All statements and opinions expressed are based upon information considered reliable although it should not be relied upon as such. Any statements or opinions are subject to change without notice.
Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed.
Information expressed does not take into account your specific situation or objectives, and is not intended as recommendations appropriate for any individual. Listeners are encouraged to seek advice from a qualified tax, legal, or investment adviser to determine whether any information presented may be suitable for their specific situation. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.

Braden Dennis is the 30-year-old founder and CEO of Fiscal AI, who scaled an AI-powered financial research platform from a frustration-driven side project to a venture-backed company serving over 150,000 users with institutional-grade data analytics that democratizes investment research previously accessible only through expensive platforms like Bloomberg and FactSet.
Episode Sponsor: Fiscal AI is a modern data terminal that gives investors instant access to twenty years of financials, earnings transcripts, and extensive segment and KPI data—use my link for a two-week free trial plus 15% off: https://fiscal.ai/talkingbillions/3:00 - Braden shares his middle-class Toronto upbringing and early realization that he was a "math kid," choosing engineering for maximum career optionality while observing that family members who invested aggressively, not those who simply earned the most, achieved the greatest financial success.
6:00 - The crucial insight: capitalism isn't zero-sum, and asset ownership is the key to benefiting from the system. Braden emphasizes that the barrier to owning assets is lower than ever, yet many feel cheated by not participating.
9:00 - The origin story of Fiscal AI: Built as a side project while working at a venture capital firm, Braden needed better tools for portfolio monitoring. After two years of development and hitting 1,000 users, he made the leap to full-time entrepreneurship despite pushback from friends and family.
15:00 - The "aha moment": Seeing Nvidia's revenue growth in real-time data visualization changed everything. "I could just watch the revenue go up, and I was like, okay, this thing is clearly a buy," demonstrating the power of visual data interaction.
30:00 - Why Fiscal AI exists: Traditional financial terminals cost $20,000-$30,000 annually and use outdated 1980s interfaces. Fiscal AI brings institutional-grade data to everyone at accessible price points with modern design.
45:00 - The AI transformation
57:00 - Powerful example: Booking.com vs. Airbnb revenue recovery post-COVID reveals how narratives differ from data reality - most would assume Airbnb recovered faster, but data shows otherwise.
1:04:00 - On success: Braden battles his forward-focused personality, measuring success by building a sustainable business where shareholders and employees (all equity holders) achieve exceptional outcomes, not just the founder.
1:07:00 - Major announcement: Fiscal AI now offers 10 years of historical data on their free plan, more than any competitor, removing barriers for investors at every level.
Podcast Program – Disclosure Statement
Blue Infinitas Capital, LLC is a registered investment adviser and the opinions expressed by the Firm’s employees and podcast guests on this show are their own and do not reflect the opinions of Blue Infinitas Capital, LLC. All statements and opinions expressed are based upon information considered reliable although it should not be relied upon as such. Any statements or opinions are subject to change without notice.
Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed.

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Gautam Baid, CFA, is the founder and managing partner of Stellar Wealth Partners India Fund and internationally bestselling author of The Joys of Compounding, who has dedicated over two decades to mastering patient, quality-focused value investing.
Episode Sponsor: Fiscal AI is a modern data terminal that gives investors instant access to twenty years of financials, earnings transcripts, and extensive segment and KPI data—use my link for a two-week free trial plus 15% off: https://fiscal.ai/talkingbillions/
3:00 - Gautam introduces his six-pillar compounding framework beyond finance: positive thoughts, good health, good habits, wealth, knowledge, and goodwill, explaining how achieving financial independence in 2018 crystallized his understanding that "in life you get what you compound for on a daily basis."
8:00 - Deep dive into compounding positive thoughts through avoiding negative emotions and toxic people while associating with high-quality minds, celebrating small wins to create momentum toward long-term goals.
12:00 - Health habits discussion: consume less sugar and junk food, exercise 3-4 times weekly for one hour, sleep 7-8 hours daily—fundamentals that aren't sexy but "just work" when implemented consistently.
15:00 - Mathematical equation for wealth: addition (monthly savings) + subtraction (eliminate greed/biases) + division (asset allocation) + multiplication (time horizon) = exponential compounding power.
20:00 - Pattern recognition in investing develops through building a "large mental database of businesses and industries through years and decades" allowing identification of opportunities in any market condition.
25:00 - Compounding goodwill principle from Guy Spear and Moneesh Pabrai: being genuinely helpful without expectations creates competitive advantage, especially in money management where nice people are rare.
42:00 - India investment opportunity: demographic dividend with median age of 29, rising disposable incomes, strong domestic consumption, and companies expanding to overseas markets at 50-100% higher margins.
52:00 - Corporate governance revolution in India: promoters now realize good governance earns 25-30x P/E multiples versus 5-6x for poor governance—"it pays to be honest" creates 5x more wealth for insiders.
55:00 - Investment journal advice: $10 journal purchased in 2014 became "one of the best value investments" by documenting decisions, tracking mistakes, and archiving market panic commentary for pattern recognition during future corrections.
Podcast Program – Disclosure Statement
Blue Infinitas Capital, LLC is a registered investment adviser and the opinions expressed by the Firm’s employees and podcast guests on this show are their own and do not reflect the opinions of Blue Infinitas Capital, LLC. All statements and opinions expressed are based upon information considered reliable although it should not be relied upon as such. Any statements or opinions are subject to change without notice.
Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed.