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Talking Billions with Bogumil Baranowski

Bogumil Baranowski
Talking Billions with Bogumil Baranowski
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  • Rupert Mitchell: Are We Extrapolating Wrong Again? | A Macro Veteran on Chinese EVs, AI Hype, and Why Things Are Never as Good or Bad as They Seem
    Rupert Mitchell is a capital markets veteran with 30 years of institutional experience across three continents who now runs Blind Squirrel Macro, combining mythology, storytelling, and contrarian thinking to help investors understand why narrative often matters more than numbers in macro investing.Episode Sponsor: Fiscal AI is a modern data terminal that gives investors instant access to twenty years of financials, earnings transcripts, and extensive segment and KPI data—use my link for a two-week free trial plus 15% off: https://fiscal.ai/talkingbillions/3:00 - Rupert discusses the British education philosophy: learning to learn rather than narrow vocational training, creating adaptable generalists who aren't limited by having "an amazing hammer where everything has to look like a nail"6:00 - Bearings collapse story: Fresh graduate Rupert spent his entire £400 bonus on a briefcase (still uses it 30 years later) hours before the 250-year-old merchant bank collapsed overnight due to Nick Leeson's derivatives trades11:00 - Key lesson from Bearings: "Things are never as bad as you fear or as good as you would hope" - the "we're so back, it's so over" cycle teaches moderation in expectations and avoiding extrapolation extremes16:00 - The mythology connection: Rupert's father, a military history writer, taught him that "most people don't really have a sense of history beyond about five or 10 years" - understanding cyclical patterns creates edge21:00 - Chinese EV revolution firsthand: Witnessing Mercedes lose luxury market dominance to BYD in China taught Rupert that establishment brands can fall faster than anyone expects when technology shifts33:00 - The generalist advantage: "I'm never baffled or scared of a new product, topic, market or theme" - breadth beats depth when markets constantly evolve and surprises come from unexpected directions45:00 - AI investment paradox: Despite machine learning being used in biotech for years, healthcare hasn't announced breakthrough cycles - this "monkey on my back" makes Rupert question AI hype narratives54:00 - On success: "Success has to be being proud of what you've done, right? And that's not a number. Some of the most miserable people I know are wealthier than God"Podcast Program – Disclosure StatementBlue Infinitas Capital, LLC is a registered investment adviser and the opinions expressed by the Firm’s employees and podcast guests on this show are their own and do not reflect the opinions of Blue Infinitas Capital, LLC. All statements and opinions expressed are based upon information considered reliable although it should not be relied upon as such. Any statements or opinions are subject to change without notice.Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed.Information expressed does not take into account your specific situation or objectives, and is not intended as recommendations appropriate for any individual. Listeners are encouraged to seek advice from a qualified tax, legal, or investment adviser to determine whether any information presented may be suitable for their specific situation. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.
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  • Daniel Rupp: The Contrarian's Guide to Asian Markets, From Peace Corps to Portfolio Manager, Learning from Hong Kong’s Worst Day Since Tiananmen & More
    The episode is sponsored by TenzingMEMO — the AI-powered market intelligence platform I use daily for smarter stock analysis. Code BILLIONS gets you an extended trial + 10% off.Daniel Rupp is the founder and chief investment officer of Parkway Capital based in Hong Kong, bringing nearly two decades of Asian value investing expertise developed during his 17-year tenure at a leading Asia-focused funds, Overlook Investments, where he honed his contrarian "farm approach" for identifying undervalued compounders across 11 Asian markets. He counts founder Richard Lawrence and longtime CIO James Squire as mentors and supporters.3:00 - Dan shares his unconventional background growing up in Boone, North Carolina, son of an English professor father and real estate agent mother.6:00 - The Blue Ridge Parkway origin story.9:30 - Core philosophy revealed.12:00 - April 2025 crisis moment.15:30 - Value with growth framework,21:00 - Asia's shocking statistic.24:00 - The farm approach.30:00 - Buyback obsession.36:00 - Portfolio composition.42:00 - China contrarian stance.45:00 - Dollar weakness as catalyst.54:00 - Three reasons to sell.57:00 - Marathon mindset.Podcast Program – Disclosure StatementBlue Infinitas Capital, LLC is a registered investment adviser and the opinions expressed by the Firm’s employees and podcast guests on this show are their own and do not reflect the opinions of Blue Infinitas Capital, LLC. All statements and opinions expressed are based upon information considered reliable although it should not be relied upon as such. Any statements or opinions are subject to change without notice.Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed.Information expressed does not take into account your specific situation or objectives, and is not intended as recommendations appropriate for any individual. Listeners are encouraged to seek advice from a qualified tax, legal, or investment adviser to determine whether any information presented may be suitable for their specific situation. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.
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  • Scott Britton: What Happens After You Sell Your Company? The Journey Beyond the Exit — Why External Success Doesn't Guarantee Fulfillment and What Actually Does
    Scott Britton is an award-winning entrepreneur who sold his startup Troops to Salesforce, discovered fulfillment's limitations through external success, and now leads Conscious Talent while hosting Evolution FM and authoring Conscious Accomplishment.3:00 - Scott discusses childhood patterns of competitive achievement through sports and school, revealing early drives toward external validation and success metrics that would later define his entrepreneurial journey.5:30 - Deep dive into repatterning work: Scott shares discovering a kindergarten bullying incident created a "worthless" core belief that unconsciously drove decades of achievement-seeking behavior he never consciously remembered.9:00 - The Salesforce acquisition revelation: Despite selling his company and achieving financial success, Scott experienced the same emotional triggers and personal problems, proving external achievement has fundamental limitations on well-being.12:00 - Introduction to the "outside-in paradigm" - the cultural conditioning that external achievements (relationships, money, status) will solve internal dissatisfaction, versus the "inside-out" approach of consciousness work.17:00 - Challenging the Eastern/Western spiritual dichotomy: Scott explains the "householder" concept - someone devoted to spiritual evolution while maintaining career, family, and financial responsibilities, not retreating to monasteries.22:00 - Key Quote: "We have a subjective experience that which we are conscious of, but there's also things that inform that subjective experience...there's a whole lot of things beyond what we can see, smell, taste, touch and hear that are creating our subjective experience."28:00 - Introduction to the Freedom Log: Scott's practical tool of documenting triggering moments (subway delays, unanswered texts, long coffee lines) to identify subconscious patterns governing automatic reactions.32:00 - Inspired Actions framework: Distinguishing between "means-to-end" actions driven by conditioning versus natural pulls toward activities that create genuine joy and curiosity, even without obvious outcomes.40:00 - The I-AWARE repatterning sequence walkthrough: Identify, Access, Welcome, Accept, Replace, Embrace - a systematic method for transforming limiting subconscious patterns through conscious intervention.47:00 - Transformational conflict: How consciousness evolution creates tension when you're changing internally but external circumstances (job, relationships, city) remain static, requiring navigation.51:00 - New success metrics beyond financial returns: evaluating life through subjective experience quality, alignment, fulfillment, and understanding rather than measurable external achievements.55:00 - Scott's definition of success: "Fulfillment, alignment and understanding...you know what they feel like."Podcast Program – Disclosure StatementBlue Infinitas Capital, LLC is a registered investment adviser and the opinions expressed by the Firm’s employees and podcast guests on this show are their own and do not reflect the opinions of Blue Infinitas Capital, LLC. All statements and opinions expressed are based upon information considered reliable although it should not be relied upon as such. Any statements or opinions are subject to change without notice.Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed.Information expressed does not take into account your specific situation or objectives, and is not intended as recommendations appropriate for any individual. Listeners are encouraged to seek advice from a qualified tax, legal, or investment adviser to determine whether any information presented may be suitable for their specific situation. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.
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  • Excess Returns Pod: Tobias Carlisle on Warren Buffett, Sun Tzu, and the Ancient Art of Risk Taking
    I had the pleasure of co-hosting another episode of Excess Returns with Matt Zeigler. We sat down with the one and only Tobias Carlisle — investor, author, podcast host, and all-around fascinating mind whose writing and ideas have influenced my thinking at various times.He discusses his new book, which made me see Buffett’s investment approach in an entirely new light — and you’re about to discover why. I highly recommend both this episode and Toby’s book.In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with Tobias Carlisle, founder and portfolio manager at the Acquirers Fund and author of the new book “Soldier of Fortune: Warren Buffett’s Sun Tzu and the Ancient Art of Risk Taking.”Tobias joins Matt Zeigler and Bogumil Baranowski to explore how timeless strategic principles from The Art of War apply to investing and how Warren Buffett embodies many of those ideas—from invincibility and victory without conflict to the disciplined avoidance of ruin. The conversation connects Buffett’s real-world decisions—from Apple to General Re to Japan’s trading houses—to broader lessons on temperament, risk, and wisdom in markets.Available now on Excess Returns Podcast and Talking Billions. 🎧I’m excited to share this episode with you—it’s reposted here with permission and blessing from both Matt and Jack. Don’t miss it! And follow their work, links below.Main Topics Covered• The three key ideas from The Art of War that define Buffett’s approach: invincibility, victory without conflict, and unassailable strength• Why Buffett’s General Re acquisition was a misunderstood masterstroke in defensive investing• How Buffett achieved “victory without conflict” through his massive Apple investment• The principle of via negativa — succeeding by avoiding mistakes and ruin• Temperament vs. intellect and the psychology of avoiding self-defeat• Circle of competence and why simplicity often beats complexity• Sins of omission vs. sins of commission in investing decisions• How Buffett applies wu wei (effortless action) through patience and alignment with natural forces• Lessons from Buffett’s Japanese trading house investments and moral law in business• The role of reputation, intuition (coup d’œil), and character in long-term investing• Charlie Munger’s blueprint and the strategic architecture of Berkshire Hathawayhttps://excessreturnspod.com/https://cultishcreative.com/ — everything Matt Zeigler.Podcast Program – Disclosure StatementBlue Infinitas Capital, LLC is a registered investment adviser and the opinions expressed by the Firm’s employees and podcast guests on this show are their own and do not reflect the opinions of Blue Infinitas Capital, LLC. All statements and opinions expressed are based upon information considered reliable although it should not be relied upon as such. Any statements or opinions are subject to change without notice.Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed.Information expressed does not take into account your specific situation or objectives, and is not intended as recommendations appropriate for any individual. Listeners are encouraged to seek advice from a qualified tax, legal, or investment adviser to determine whether any information presented may be suitable for their specific situation. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.
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  • Ritavan: The Asymmetric Advantage: Building Unfair Competitive Moats Through Purposeful Data Leverage
    Find me on Substack: https://bogumilbaranowski.substack.com/Ritavan is a bestselling author of "Data Impact," former CTO, and data transformation expert with a decade of operating experience across sectors including banking (Société Générale), energy trading, consulting, and real estate technology, who advocates for treating digital initiatives like value investments rather than following technology trends.EPISODE NOTES3:00 - Ritavan shares the fascinating story behind having only one name—his grandfather's generation dropped last names as part of a social reform movement to combat caste-based discrimination in India, as colonial systems had turned last names into markers of social hierarchy.7:30 - Early career journey spans math research in Paris at École Normale Supérieure, market risk at Société Générale during the 2008 financial crisis obsession, and energy trading where he cleared his trading exam within six weeks despite not knowing what a megawatt was.13:45 - The core thesis emerges: following technology trends destroys business value. Ritavan argues that constantly chasing AI, cloud, or the latest tech is like an investor jumping between market fads—you're not playing the long game or building real competitive advantage.20:30 - Revolutionary perspective on value creation paradigms throughout history: hunter-gatherers relied 40-60% on traps (automation), agriculture depended on land, industrial age on machinery and raw materials, while the digital paradigm offers zero replication costs and near-zero personalization costs.27:00 - Introduces the SLASOG framework: Save (capital preservation, avoid groupthink), Leverage (find asymmetric opportunities), Align (commander's intent), Simplify (remove clutter), Optimize (maximize returns), Compound (play the long game), Keep (retain gains).36:30 - Roger Federer insight: He won only 54% of points but 80% of games due to tennis's nonlinear scoring system—a powerful metaphor for business success requiring asymmetric opportunities, not perfection.41:00 - Teaching the first LLM-native college students: Traditional assessment is obsolete when AI can summarize and synthesize better than humans. The solution? Open-ended problems with no single answer, forcing genuine creativity and collaboration.48:30 - Napoleon's battlefield genius: treating each battle from first principles, understanding the system, finding nonlinear advantages, and pioneering "commander's intent"—ensuring even illiterate foot soldiers understood strategic goals, not just tactical orders.54:45 - The North Star metric concept: Legacy businesses obsess over EBIT (backward-looking), but digital-age companies need forward-looking metrics that quantify customer value delivery to enable rapid adaptation and compounding gains.Podcast Program – Disclosure StatementBlue Infinitas Capital, LLC is a registered investment adviser and the opinions expressed by the Firm’s employees and podcast guests on this show are their own and do not reflect the opinions of Blue Infinitas Capital, LLC. All statements and opinions expressed are based upon information considered reliable although it should not be relied upon as such. Any statements or opinions are subject to change without notice.Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed.Information expressed does not take into account your specific situation or objectives, and is not intended as recommendations appropriate for any individual. Listeners are encouraged to seek advice from a qualified tax, legal, or investment adviser to determine whether any information presented may be suitable for their specific situation. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.
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About Talking Billions with Bogumil Baranowski

EVERY MONDAY A NEW EPISODE. I READ ALL MY EMAILS - contact form on my website - www.bogumilbaranowski.com. TELL ME YOUR STORY. I’m Bogumil Baranowski, an author, a TEDx speaker, an investor, and an investment advisor to families and individuals. Intimate conversations about money, wealth, and living a rich and fulfilling life. We talk about big ideas, big inspirations, big topics. We take on the hardest subject of all – money: how to make it, save it, keep it, but our conversations lead us to an even bigger question — what it means to live a rich life beyond money. NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE.
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