Talking Billions with Bogumil Baranowski

Bob Robotti, founder and CIO of Robotti & Company, joins Matt Zeigler and Bogumil Baranowski to explain why bottom-up value investing may be entering one of its best opportunity sets in decades. They discuss AI and reindustrialization, inflation and interest rates, passive investing, capital cycles, private equity, long-term ownership, and why today’s neglected industrial businesses may offer opportunities that the market is missing.
I join Matt Zeigler for one more special episode of Excess Returns. I’m excited to share this episode with you—it’s reposted here with permission and blessing from both Matt and Jack. Don’t miss it! And follow their work; links below.
Bob Robotti on X
https://x.com/BobRobotti
Robotti & Company
https://www.robotti.com
Topics covered
How Bob finds misunderstood businesses with latent earnings power

Why his “grassroots macro” process starts with company-level supply and demand

How AI spending is increasing demand for energy, copper, aluminum, cement and other physical assets

Why North America’s natural gas advantage could support a long-term reindustrialization cycle

Why persistent inflation could force higher interest rates and lower valuation multiples

Why no competitive moat is permanent, even for today’s dominant technology companies

How passive investing and shorter time horizons can create opportunities for fundamental stock pickers

Why prolonged downturns can improve industry economics through consolidation and reduced capacity

Why Bob views himself as an active owner rather than an activist investor

Why he is skeptical of today’s private equity model and its expansion into retirement portfolios

The NewMarket investment that taught him the cost of selling a great business too early

Why he thinks individual company research can outperform indexing over the next decade

Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:
https://excessreturns.co
No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.
Podcast Program – Disclosure StatementBlue Infinitas Capital, LLC is a registered investment adviser and the opinions expressed by the Firm’s employees and podcast guests on this show are their own and do not reflect the opinions of Blue Infinitas Capital, LLC. All statements and opinions expressed are based upon information considered reliable although it should not be relied upon as such. Any statements or opinions are subject to change without notice.
Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed.
Information expressed does not take into account your specific situation or objectives, and is not intended as recommendations appropriate for any individual. Listeners are encouraged to seek advice from a qualified tax, legal, or investment adviser to determine whether any information presented may be suitable for their specific situation. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.

My guest today is Jan Petke, a dynastic architect and strategic consigliere to sovereign and leading global entrepreneur families, who designs continuity architectures so that power, capital, and culture compound across generations — not just portfolios.
3:00 — Jan traces his path from a McKinsey-spinoff consultancy through private equity (Commonwealth Bank of Australia’s First State Investments) to advising “centi-millionaires” — first-gen tech entrepreneurs with liquidity events over €100 million.
5:25 — Jan rejects “advisor” and “wealth manager” as labels: “wealth has nothing to do with money” (6:14).
7:35 — The shift from “next generation” to “rising generation,” and from financial capital to human and intellectual capital.
11:04 — The “meteor” metaphor: inherited wealth arrives with a weight of responsibility most heirs are unprepared for (12:55).
20:43 — On the shirtsleeves proverb: “This proverb is real and serious, because that is physics” — though every family has “free will” over whether it repeats (21:45).
25:04 — Jan’s own 100 Year Family Project, built with his four children: “my mantra is I eat my own cooking.”
32:25 — Declining birth rates and families transforming into institutions.
38:53 — New “tribal” dynasties forming around purpose, not bloodline. 2,000–5,000 new dynasties expected within a decade — 40% female-led (41:19).
43:51 — Women as an “underestimated” force in the wealth transfer.
50:43 — Bringing elders into governance through an “elder council”: “you can’t Google wisdom” (54:12).
54:51 — The 1,000-year vision — inspired by Hong Kong’s Lee Kum Kee family and echoed across scripture.
58:42 — Why Jan avoids “legacy” in favor of “lineage impact.”
1:03:20 — On success: “if I can inspire someone to do better.”

Podcast Program – Disclosure Statement
Blue Infinitas Capital, LLC is a registered investment adviser and the opinions expressed by the Firm’s employees and podcast guests on this show are their own and do not reflect the opinions of Blue Infinitas Capital, LLC. All statements and opinions expressed are based upon information considered reliable although it should not be relied upon as such. Any statements or opinions are subject to change without notice.
Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and, unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed.

Thomas Chua is a friend, an investor, an investing educator, and the founder of Steady Compounding, where he shares lessons from great businesses and great investors with a global audience. He’s also the author of a brand-new book, The Lunch Break Investor, about how busy people can build wealth thoughtfully in roughly an hour a day.
(03:00) Title story: his father pawned his mother’s wedding jewelry; Thomas vows “the lights will never go off again.”
(06:00) Library autobiographies over role models; “failure in itself is nothing to be embarrassed about.”
(08:00) Singapore’s 4-year bond funded university — career freedom traded for $30K to compound.
(11:00) Trader-to-owner shift: prices checked every 15 min, until Buffett’s line on tickers landed.
(15:00) “Forgotten money”: Guy Spier’s dislike of trading; Adam Mead forgetting his own login.
(17:00) Core thesis: “invest to live and not the other way around” — one hour a day.
(20:00) Lynch’s line: “nobody ever wished on their deathbed that they wish they spent more time in the office.”
(24:00) Ronald Reid (janitor, $8M) and Anne Scheiber (IRS auditor, left $22M).
(28:00) A moat as treasure inside a castle worth defending.
(31:00) ROIC and Munger’s “gravity” — a moat’s trajectory beats its size.
(33:00) AI capex wave: Meta’s ad growth vs. debt-heavy new cloud entrants.
(38:00) Red flag: Peloton’s CFO denied a capital raise days before doing one.
(41:00) The “wallet test” for management; Bezos’s “Ouch” letter.
(43:00) Buying in three tranches, letting the business prove itself.
(44:00) Selling as “an admission that I was wrong” — the Lululemon case.
(48:00) One-hour checklist: “why does this business deserve to be bigger five years from now,” plus scanning your card statement for moat clues.
(50:00) Writing Steady Compounding publicly sharpened his thinking, built his audience.
(53:00) The Malacca trip with his grandmother that never happened; Munger’s tuna regret.
(56:00) After 200+ episodes: permission to take the walk, take the trip — you’re safe now.

Podcast Program – Disclosure Statement
Blue Infinitas Capital, LLC is a registered investment adviser and the opinions expressed by the Firm’s employees and podcast guests on this show are their own and do not reflect the opinions of Blue Infinitas Capital, LLC. All statements and opinions expressed are based upon information considered reliable although it should not be relied upon as such. Any statements or opinions are subject to change without notice.
Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and, unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed.

I’m reposting today an interview that Matt Zeigler kindly conducted with me recently. It just so happens that today is my birthday, which makes it feel like the right moment to share this deeply personal conversation about a chapter in my life and career when uncertainty was at its peak and the road ahead felt anything but clear.
In this impromptu conversation, recorded one summer morning, I reflect on what happened during that time, what I learned from it, and how those experiences continue to shape me today. Along the way, you’ll hear stories and moments I’ve never shared publicly before.
I also encourage you to read the thoughtful profile Matt wrote about me on his wonderful Cultish Creative blog, linked here. While you’re there, take some time to explore—and follow—his beautifully written, thoughtfully curated work. I’m grateful for the care and generosity he brings to every conversation and every story he tells.
Bogumil Baranowski joins Matt Zeigler to explore why failure is feedback and how persistence can turn rejection, uncertainty, and personal obstacles into life-changing opportunities. Bogumil shares his journey from Poland to a career in New York investing, the green card rejection that nearly ended it, and the unlikely path that eventually led him to ask Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger a question at the Berkshire Hathaway annual meeting.
Topics covered:
Why failure should be treated as feedback rather than defeat

What Joseph Moore’s struggle to publish How to Get Rich in American History teaches about resilience

How personal conviction helps people continue when success appears statistically unlikely

Why creating a podcast can preserve valuable conversations and connect overlooked ideas

How podcast hosts cross-pollinate insights between investors, authors, and thinkers

Bogumil’s decision to leave Europe and build an investing career in New York City

The visa challenges and green card rejection that almost forced him to leave America

How hope and persistence helped him restart the immigration process

The unlikely story of asking Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger a question at Berkshire Hathaway

Why obstacles can help people develop strengths that others do not possess

How an outsider’s perspective can create an advantage in investing and creative work

Why people should embrace the experiences that make them different

Timestamps:
00:00 Why some goals become things you have to do
03:00 Joseph Moore and the history of getting rich
06:04 Why location matters when building and preserving wealth
08:20 Failure is feedback
09:30 Why important ideas often face rejection
13:03 Turning private conversations into a public podcast
16:40 Learning through other people’s experiences
18:08 Cross-pollinating ideas between great investors
20:24 Bogumil’s decision to pursue investing in New York
21:42 Visa problems and a rejected green card application
24:00 Starting the immigration process again
26:14 Why persistence matters more than the size of the goal
27:46 Asking Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger a question
31:42 Why failing is part of trying
33:53 The unexpected connection to The King’s Speech
35:29 Turning perceived weaknesses into strengths
37:29 Where to find Bogumil’s writing and podcasts
Podcast Program – Disclosure Statement
Blue Infinitas Capital, LLC is a registered investment adviser and the opinions expressed by the Firm’s employees and podcast guests on this show are their own and do not reflect the opinions of Blue Infinitas Capital, LLC. All statements and opinions expressed are based upon information considered reliable although it should not be relied upon as such. Any statements or opinions are subject to change without notice.
Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed.

Lee Freeman‑Shor is a former multi‑award‑winning fund manager turned bestselling author and researcher who has spent years inside the decision‑making of the world’s best investors to uncover how they get it wrong most of the time and still make millions in the markets. He gave 45 elite investors real money and studied 30,000 trades to decode execution. He shares what he learned in the process. Episode Sponsor: Fiscal AI is a modern data terminal that gives investors instant access to twenty years of financials, earnings transcripts, and extensive segment and KPI data—use my link for a two-week free trial plus 15% off: https://fiscal.ai/talkingbillions/
Episode Notes
03:00 — Lee's working-class Nottinghamshire upbringing; didn't know what a stock was until university.
04:11 — Stumbled into fund management after a law degree, then built the "Best Ideas" fund range at Scander Investment Group.
07:07 — The spark: a manager with a 30% hit rate who still made a fortune for the fund.
09:51 — Analyzing 30,000 trades: hit rates cluster near 50% — "it's definitely not about the stock idea."
19:30 — Lee unveils his five investor tribes: rabbits, assassins, hunters, raiders, connoisseurs.
20:30 — Why investors freeze: "you don't want to be a rabbit."
22:42 — The biases behind it: "endowment bias, sunk cost bias... regret aversion bias."
24:15 — His gut-check question for holding a losing name: would you buy it today with fresh money?
25:43 — Averaging down done right — hunters start small so they can "lean into the name."
38:16 — Stock Market Maestros research: the "lumberjack" archetype (John Barr), tiny starting positions, decades-long 100-baggers.
44:54 — "Incrementalists" like Andrew Hall and James Hambro trim and add in small steps instead of exiting outright.
48:34 — Behavioral alpha score and payoff ratio — metrics that predict future manager skill.
53:15 — Takeaway: "when you're losing, do something... try and be an assassin."
58:43 — Lee's personal lesson: "expect to be wrong."
1:00:41 — Closing reflection on what success really means after stepping back from money management in 2018.
Podcast Program – Disclosure Statement
Blue Infinitas Capital, LLC is a registered investment adviser and the opinions expressed by the Firm’s employees and podcast guests on this show are their own and do not reflect the opinions of Blue Infinitas Capital, LLC. All statements and opinions expressed are based upon information considered reliable although it should not be relied upon as such. Any statements or opinions are subject to change without notice.
Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and, unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed.