Talking Billions with Bogumil Baranowski

Sangeet Paul Choudhary is the bestselling co-author of Platform Revolution, founder of Platformation Labs, senior fellow at UC Berkeley, and author of Reshuffle, exploring how AI fundamentally reorganizes value creation architecture.Episode Sponsor: Fiscal AI is a modern data terminal that gives investors instant access to twenty years of financials, earnings transcripts, and extensive segment and KPI data—use my link for a two-week free trial plus 15% off: https://fiscal.ai/talkingbillions/3:00 - Sangeet describes growing up in an industrial town where everyone's father worked at the steel plant, creating a homogeneous, "straight-jacketed" environment. Digital technologies opened new career possibilities beyond this rigid path.5:45 - The Intelligence Distraction: Sangeet challenges the dominant narrative of AI benchmarked by intelligence metrics. "AI is not an alternative to human thought. It could be an alternative to human-performed knowledge work, but it's not an alternative to human thought."8:30 - The GPS metaphor: AI's real impact comes from reorganizing systems, not raw intelligence. Like GPS restructures traffic flow by coordinating unconnected drivers, AI reorganizes economic activity by creating shared representations of complex spaces.15:00 - Travel industry transformation: Dreaming on Instagram, planning on Google Flights, booking through fragmented systems. AI could create unified representations connecting desire to action seamlessly.28:00 - Piracy as market research: "Piracy is a form of market research showing unmet demand." When illegal activity fills gaps, it reveals where legitimate systems fail to serve users.35:00 - Platform economics: Network effects create winner-take-all dynamics. Once critical mass is achieved, platforms become nearly impossible to displace.42:00 - Solution vs. execution: Professional services charging for billing hours face commoditization. The future belongs to those charging for outcomes and results, not execution time.48:00 - Orica example: Mining explosives company stopped selling products, started selling blast outcomes. Shifted from commodity provider to results-aligned partner, capturing more value and developing superior expertise.52:00 - Don't need AI strategy, need strategy for AI world: "What is our strategy given the conditions that AI creates?" AI dissolves industry boundaries by making previously siloed knowledge accessible across sectors.54:30 - Value migration: Ask where value sat before, where it moves with AI, then position to capture that shifted value.Podcast Program – Disclosure StatementBlue Infinitas Capital, LLC is a registered investment adviser and the opinions expressed by the Firm’s employees and podcast guests on this show are their own and do not reflect the opinions of Blue Infinitas Capital, LLC. All statements and opinions expressed are based upon information considered reliable although it should not be relied upon as such. Any statements or opinions are subject to change without notice.Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed.

I had the pleasure of co-hosting another episode of Excess Returns with Matt Zeigler.In this wide-ranging conversation, Gautam Baid joins Excess Returns to discuss the principles that shaped his investing philosophy, the lessons learned through bear markets, and why compounding, patience, and quality matter far more than forecasts or short-term performance. Drawing from his books The Joys of Compounding and The Making of a Value Investor, Baid shares a deeply reflective framework for long-term investing, portfolio construction, behavioral discipline, and global diversification, with insights spanning Indian and US markets, liquidity cycles, AI, and investor psychology.Available now on Excess Returns Podcast and Talking Billions. 🎧I’m excited to share this episode with you—it’s reposted here with permission and blessing from both Matt and Jack. Don’t miss it! And follow their work, links below.https://excessreturnspod.com/https://cultishcreative.com/Timestamps00:00 Introduction and the asymmetric nature of compounding01:00 Gautam Baid’s investing background and books03:00 The importance of journaling and learning through bear markets06:00 Investor sentiment, IPOs, and late-cycle market behavior10:20 Long-term investing versus complacency and monitoring risk14:15 Convex upside, concave downside, and letting winners run18:30 Liquidity cycles and lessons from Stan Druckenmiller22:45 Identifying market bottoms and the anatomy of bull and bear markets28:00 Averaging down, quality, and risk management30:30 How bear markets change investor psychology and strategy33:00 Patience, management quality, and long-term optionality36:15 Mr. Market, price signals, and market intelligence39:00 The Federal Reserve, inflation, and asset price dynamics44:00 Understanding the Indian equity market and valuation structure46:45 Why global diversification matters for US investors50:30 AI, margins, and the future of value investing53:00 Passion, purpose, and the psychology of long-term investing54:30 The single most note investors should learnPodcast Program – Disclosure StatementBlue Infinitas Capital, LLC is a registered investment adviser and the opinions expressed by the Firm’s employees and podcast guests on this show are their own and do not reflect the opinions of Blue Infinitas Capital, LLC. All statements and opinions expressed are based upon information considered reliable although it should not be relied upon as such. Any statements or opinions are subject to change without notice.Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed.Information expressed does not take into account your specific situation or objectives, and is not intended as recommendations appropriate for any individual. Listeners are encouraged to seek advice from a qualified tax, legal, or investment adviser to determine whether any information presented may be suitable for their specific situation. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.

Nadjeschda (Nadja) Taranczewski is a master of psychology, master certified coach, and founder of Conscious U who specializes in helping CEOs and founders uncover unconscious patterns shaping their relationship with wealth, leadership, and intergenerational trauma through her pioneering Money Work Program.3:00 - Nadja shares her powerful family history: her German grandmother's side benefited from the Nazi regime while remaining silent about their role, while her Polish grandmother was abducted and forced into prostitution, and her Russian grandfather was tortured in a concentration camp until he became an informant.8:00 - The profound impact of intergenerational trauma: Nadja's father grew up in extreme poverty with five people in a one-bedroom apartment, translating his grandfather's concentration camp stories at age 13, learning "the only person you can rely on is yourself."15:00 - Discovery process: Nadja pieced together her family story over decades through therapy and conversations, realizing that understanding these patterns was essential to breaking free from inherited trauma and beliefs about money and safety.25:00 - The concept of "source energy" - Nadja explains how we're born with original essence that gets overlaid with family patterns, cultural conditioning, and protective mechanisms, leading most people to live from a false self rather than their authentic core.35:00 - Money as safety vs. money as energy: Nadja contrasts her father's scarcity mindset ("money is safety") with her mother's guilt-driven giving, showing how both extremes kept her stuck until she learned to see money as flowing energy.45:00 - The three-step framework for transformation: noticing patterns, understanding their origins in your family story, and consciously choosing new responses that align with your true self rather than inherited programming.55:00 - Language shapes identity: Speaking multiple languages reveals how cultural context influences personality - English allows more optimistic expression while German and Polish carry historical weight and pessimism from generations of trauma.1:03:00 - Definition of success: "To have the luxury to realize my potential and to be more of myself in an environment where I get seen for that, celebrated for that, and loved for that."Podcast Program – Disclosure StatementBlue Infinitas Capital, LLC is a registered investment adviser and the opinions expressed by the Firm’s employees and podcast guests on this show are their own and do not reflect the opinions of Blue Infinitas Capital, LLC. All statements and opinions expressed are based upon information considered reliable although it should not be relied upon as such. Any statements or opinions are subject to change without notice.Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed.

How mathematical rigor, probabilistic thinking, and family priorities shape a young investor's approach to finding overlooked opportunities.The episode is sponsored by TenzingMEMO — the AI-powered market intelligence platform I use daily for smarter company analysis. Code BILLIONS gets you an extended trial + 10% off.https://www.tenzingmemo.com/David Diranko is a 29-year-old German mathematician turned professional value investor who uniquely combines statistical rigor with contrarian small-cap investing, building his investment advisory firm Diranko Capital while sharing research through his newsletter Contrarian Cash Flows.3:00 - David explains his unconventional journey from mathematics to IBM data scientist to full-time value investor, detailing how he worked 40+ hours at IBM while spending another 30 hours weekly on investing before making the leap to launch Duranko Capital.6:00 - Drawing parallels between Ben Graham as "the original data scientist" during the Great Depression, David discusses how mathematical thinking enhances investment analysis through probabilistic frameworks and viewing intrinsic value as a range rather than a single number.10:00 - The decision to share research publicly through Contrarian Cash Flows despite initial hesitation about giving away "edge," leading to deeper thinking, network effects, and unexpected client relationships—though David candidly admits he's still learning to balance transparency with proprietary insights.20:00 - Europe's structural advantages for small-cap investors: fragmented markets across 27 countries, language barriers creating information asymmetries, and limited institutional coverage enabling patient capital to exploit mispricing—with David emphasizing the importance of investing in quality businesses over statistical cheapness.35:00 - AI's transformative impact on investing: from automating routine tasks to potentially replacing 50% of analyst work, while emphasizing that relationship-building, creative thinking, and probabilistic judgment remain distinctly human advantages that AI cannot replicate.50:00 - Balancing entrepreneurship with young family life (two kids under three), David shares his contrarian view that starting families early while building careers creates stronger bonds through shared struggle, rejecting the common narrative of family as a "reward" for career success.1:02:00 - Closing wisdom on finding meaning beyond financial returns, referencing Charlie Munger's caution that a life purely about buying securities wouldn't be enough—investing must serve a deeper purpose than accumulation.Podcast Program – Disclosure StatementBlue Infinitas Capital, LLC is a registered investment adviser and the opinions expressed by the Firm’s employees and podcast guests on this show are their own and do not reflect the opinions of Blue Infinitas Capital, LLC. All statements and opinions expressed are based upon information considered reliable although it should not be relied upon as such. Any statements or opinions are subject to change without notice.Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed.

Jawad Mian is the founder and managing editor of Stray Reflections, serving elite hedge funds and family offices worldwide, while uniquely integrating deep spiritual wisdom with global macro investing through his acclaimed book and podcast.3:00 - Jawad shares how seeking his entrepreneur father's approval shaped his drive for success, revealing the subconscious motivation behind his ambitious twenties working in finance.5:30 - The evolution of motivation: 20s spent seeking dad's approval, 30s deepening spiritual life, 40s focused on marriage—how Jawad's purpose transformed across life decades while pulling more from himself by showing up for others.7:00 - Why Jawad walked away from launching his hedge fund at 30 despite Market Wizards aspirations: "I realized I'm not the same guy who had that dream when he was 20."11:00 - The pivotal Quranic verse that reframed everything: "Competition in worldly increase diverts you until you visit the graveyards"—realizing material pursuits alone weren't enough after witnessing his father's success without contentment.21:00 - Inside Stray Reflections' boutique model: serving 30-40 elite clients at $30K+ annually, rejecting scale for depth, quality, and protecting creative freedom from institutional pressures.28:00 - Big Idea: "There's a certain magic in the mundane" - Jawad's discovery that extraordinary insights emerge from ordinary moments through journaling, not just dramatic events.38:00 - The contrarian case for indexing: Why Jawad holds 80% in passive index funds despite being a macro analyst, acknowledging his cognitive biases and preserving mental bandwidth.46:00 - Writing as meditation: How daily writing became spiritual practice, processing experiences and ideas without agenda, leading to unexpected business opportunities.55:00 - Information diet philosophy: "I'm only reading to write...I trust that what is important will come to me" - shifting from consuming everything to intentional, curated knowledge.59:00 - Redefining success through faith: "Wealth in excess of daily provision isn't a blessing, it's a test" - the Islamic framework of stewardship over ownership that transforms how Jawad approaches money and achievement.Podcast Program – Disclosure StatementBlue Infinitas Capital, LLC is a registered investment adviser and the opinions expressed by the Firm’s employees and podcast guests on this show are their own and do not reflect the opinions of Blue Infinitas Capital, LLC. All statements and opinions expressed are based upon information considered reliable although it should not be relied upon as such. Any statements or opinions are subject to change without notice.Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed.