Win-Win with Liv Boeree

How fast is the AI race really going? What is the current state of Quantum Computing? What actually *is* the P vs NP problem? - former OpenAI researcher and theoretical computer scientist Scott Aaronson joins Liv and Igor to discuss everything quantum, AI and consciousness. We hear about his experience working on OpenAI's "superalignment team", whether quantum computers might break Bitcoin, the state of University Admissions, and even a proposal for a new religion! Strap in for a fascinating conversation that bridges deep theory with pressing real-world concerns about our technological future. Chapters: 1:30 - Working at OpenAI 4:23 - His Approaches to AI Alignment 6:23 - Watermarking & Detection of AI content 19:15 - P vs. NP 27:11 - The Current State of AI Safety 37:38 - Bad "Just-a-ism" Arguments around LLMs 48:25 - What Sets Human Creativity Apart from AI 55:30 - A Religion for AGI? 1:00:49 - More Moral Philosophy 1:05:24 - The AI Arms Race 1:11:08 - The Government Intervention Dilemma 1:23:28 - The Current State of Quantum Computing 1:36:25 - Will QC destroy Cryptography? 1:48:55 - Politics on College Campuses 2:03:11 - Scott's Childhood & Relationship with Competition 2:23:25 - Rapid-fire Predictions Links: ♾️ Scott’s Blog: ⁠https://scottaaronson.blog/⁠ ♾️ Scott’s Book: ⁠https://www.amazon.com/Quantum-Computing-since-Democritus-Aaronson/dp/0521199565⁠ ♾️ QIC at UTA: https://www.cs.utexas.edu/~qic/ Credits Credits: ♾️  Hosted by Liv Boeree and Igor Kurganov ♾️  Produced by Liv Boeree ♾️  Post-Production by Ryan Kessler The Win-Win Podcast: Poker champion Liv Boeree takes to the interview chair to tease apart the complexities of one of the most fundamental parts of human nature: competition. Liv is joined by top philosophers, gamers, artists, technologists, CEOs, scientists, athletes and more to understand how competition manifests in their world, and how to change seemingly win-lose games into Win-Wins. #WinWinPodcast #QuantumComputing #AISafety #LLM

How do we escape Moloch’s trap for good? In this special Burning Man edition of Win-Win, Liv forgoes the usual purple chairs for dusty playa to chat with Kristian Rönn. Kristian is the CEO and co-founder of Normative, a platform for helping industries strive for net zero emissions. With intellectual roots in Oxford’s Future of Humanity Institute and his own mission to create positive-sum solutions to climate change, Kristian has just launched a new book - The Darwinian Trap - and in this conversation, Liv and Kristian examine solutions to the short-term thinking and cost externalisation that traditional markets often produce. A conversation full of evolutionary biology, game theory and economics as they examine solutions to the world’s deadliest demon. Chapters (01:42)-The Darwinian Trap (03:42)-Why Is Coordination So Hard? (07:19)-Unstable Equilibriums: The Butterfly Effect of Game Theory (13:55)-Natural Selection: Capitalism's Ace In The Hole (20:16)-How Can A Market Model Anything At All? (22:10)-Betting On Our Values (27:29)-What Problems Do Reputational Markets Solve? (32:56)-Centralized Mechanisms for Overcoming The Darwinian Trap (35:16)-The Risks of Over-Centralization (39:46)-The Burning Man Model (43:00)-Mixed Economies (45:53)-Killing The Incentives or Kill The Organism? (50:59)-The Miracle of Evolutionary Success (54:03)-Finding Hope  (56:21)-Spreading Awareness To Defeat Moloch (59:58)-Why Burning Man? Links ♾️ Kristian’s New Book ♾️ Kristian’s Bio ♾️ Liv’s TED talk on Moloch ♾️ Reputational Markets ♾️ Episode Transcript Credits ♾️  Hosted and Produced by Liv Boeree ♾️  Post-Production by Ryan Kessler The Win-Win Podcast: Poker champion Liv Boeree takes to the interview chair to tease apart the complexities of one of the most fundamental parts of human nature: competition. Liv is joined by top philosophers, gamers, artists, technologists, CEOs, scientists, athletes and more to understand how competition manifests in their world, and how to change seemingly win-lose games into Win-Wins. #WinWinPodcast #TheDarwinianTrap #Moloch 

Can we still accurately model elections in such chaotic times? Are prediction markets the future of news? Nate Silver thinks so - Nate is a renowned election analyst, author and former professional poker player. He's the founder of FiveThirtyEight, whose statistical models revolutionized election forecasting, earning him national acclaim. His two books "On The Edge: The Art of Risking Everything." and "Signal in Noise" are inspirations for today's Win-Win conversation with Liv and Igor. We discuss polling accuracy, the importance of prediction markets like Polymarket, poker thinking, solutions to political polarization, and of course his latest predictions on Trump vs Kamala. We also hear his theory on "The River" and "The Village" communities, defined by their opposing perspectives on risk - and how these contrasting worldviews shape approaches to everything from public health policy to technology. Chapters 00:01:34 - Predicting Elections 00:06:49 - Trump Assassination Attempt 00:11:45 - Prediction Markets 00:21:13 - Nate’s New Book on Risk 00:25:53 - Institutional screwups on COVID 00:33:30 - Why are People so Averse to Probabilities? 00:35:27 - Silicon Valley’s Blind Spots 00:40:43 - Excessively Risky Behavior 00:44:29 - Regulations 00:48:55 - Finding Common Ground 01:00:18 - Alternative Voting Structures 01:06:50 - Signal vs Noise in the AI age 01:12:15 - Advice for Sharpening Your Models 01:22:25 - Nate’s Maxims For A Win-Win Future Links: ♾️ Nate’s Blog: https://www.natesilver.net/ ♾️ Nate’s Twitter: https://x.com/NateSilver538/ Credits: ♾️ Hosted and Produced by Liv Boeree and Igor Kurganov ♾️ Post-Production by Ryan Kessler The Win-Win Podcast: Poker champion Liv Boeree takes to the interview chair to tease apart the complexities of one of the most fundamental parts of human nature: competition. Liv is joined by top philosophers, gamers, artists, technologists, CEOs, scientists, athletes and more to understand how competition manifests in their world, and how to change seemingly win-lose games into Win-Wins.

Open-source movements have historically been a great source of collaboration. Can we harness the power of open source software, science or AI to help solve the world's coordination problems? Or could it just make everything worse? This is the main topic covered in today's episode of the Win-Win Podcast. Liv is joined by Peter Wang, a physicist, computer scientist, and founder of Anaconda, one of the most widely used open source platforms for Python development. Peter leads Anaconda’s AI Incubator, which focuses on advancing core Python technologies and developing new frontiers in open-source AI and machine learning, especially in the areas of edge computing, data privacy, and decentralized computing. In this wide-ranging conversation. we explore how these technologies, and their philosophies can potentially help us navigate the complexities of our informationally overloaded environment. Chapters: 00:00:00 - What is Open Source Software 00:10:29 - Peter's History with The Open Source Movement 00:35:06 - Security and State Interests in Open Source 00:37:16 - Open Science and The Commons of Knowledge 00:39:40 - The Central Problem of Coordination 00:43:46 - The Solutions That Markets Solve and The Problems They Create 01:04:40 - Synchronous Attention As A Scarce Resource 01:09:23 - The Liminal Act of Modelling The World 01:19:58 - Virtuality and Colorful Dystopias 01:22:03 - Is Technology Values-Neutral? 01:32:30 - Moloch Invades The Tech Stack 01:35:57 - Psychosecurity and The Dangers of Attention-Renting Software 01:42:00 - Is The Global Community Actually Excelling in Science? 01:43:51 - Our Cosmic Scale and The Instruments To Probe It 01:53:18 - The Stagnation of Physics 01:56:06 - The Civilizational Perspective on AI Safety 02:05:23 - The Benefits of Open Source To Society 02:27:26 - Will AI Accelerate A Global Security Crisis? Credits: ♾️ Hosted and Produced by Liv Boeree ♾️ Edited and Mixed by Ryan Kessler Links: ♾️ Peter’s Twitter: ⁠https://x.com/pwang?lang=en⁠ ♾️ Anaconda: ⁠https://www.anaconda.com/⁠ ♾️ Peter’s Blog: ⁠https://medium.com/@pwang⁠ The Win-Win Podcast: Poker champion Liv Boeree takes to the interview chair to tease apart the complexities of one of the most fundamental parts of human nature: competition. Liv is joined by top philosophers, gamers, artists, technologists, CEOs, scientists, athletes and more to understand how competition manifests in their world, and how to change seemingly win-lose games into Win-Wins. #WinWinPodcast #Moloch #AI #Python