America‘s Commercial Real Estate Show

Six years into the expansion, the commercial real estate cycle still looks early. Michael Bull, CCIM covers 2026 rates, supply, and office with BGO Chief Economist Ryan Severino, CFA.

Ryan Severino, CFA, Chief Economist and Head of Research for the U.S. at BGO, explains why a cycle that is six years old still behaves like an early to mid cycle expansion. Debt sits at moderate levels, the labor market has room to run, and leverage has stayed disciplined. He sees runway left in the economy and in commercial real estate.

The conversation covers where inflation and interest rates go from here, why the 10-year Treasury has trouble moving far off 4% on fundamentals alone, and how trade policy and the conflict in Iran are adding roughly 30 to 60 basis points to the long end of the curve. Severino also makes the case that today's rates only feel high because most people working in this industry have spent their entire careers in a market where the 10-year stayed below 5% for a quarter century.

On the property side: the construction pipeline is the most benign on record relative to existing inventory, which means owners no longer need an outsized jump in demand to compress vacancy and restart rent growth. Severino explains why he is more constructive on office than most of the industry, drawing a direct comparison to how wrong the popular narrative on retail was for 15 years. Michael Bull adds a live example, a 17-story tower coming to market at $64 per square foot, below the cost of building out the space.

The episode closes on what Severino calls a recovery out of order. In a normal cycle, capital markets recover first and space market fundamentals lag. This time fundamentals are recovering while elevated long-term rates hold the capital markets back. His view on the next 12 to 24 months: higher transaction volume, more attractive pricing, and a real estate return profile that compares well against a richly valued stock market.

In this episode:
00:00  Where Are We in the CRE Cycle? What Inning Are We In?
01:08  Six Years In and Still Early Cycle: The Rain Delay Economy
03:17  Pandemic, Inflation, Trade War, Real War: A Fits and Starts Cycle
04:39  Inflation Resurgent: A Speed Bump, Not a Roadblock
06:37  The 10-Year Treasury: Why It Cannot Move Far Off 4%
07:58  A Quarter Century Below 5%: Today's Rates Are About Average
09:26  Michael's 17% Loan and Making Money at Higher Rates
10:28  Oil Prices and Iran: Why the U.S. Economy Shrugs Now
12:46  AI and Data Centers: Galactic Capital and Political Backlash
15:02  Record Low Construction: Why Supply No Longer Drives the Cycle
17:57  Office: The Contrarian Case and the Retail Playbook
20:07  A 17-Story Tower at $64 per Foot
20:42  Recovery Out of Order: Fundamentals First, Capital Markets Lagging
24:47  Relative Value: Real Estate Against a Richly Priced Stock Market
25:57  Final Takeaway: You Do Not Pay Today's Rate Forever

Connect with Ryan Severino:
https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryan-severino-cfa-4409022/
BGO Website: https://www.bgo.com

Connect with Michael Bull & The Show:
Michael Bull, CCIM
Bull Realty, Inc
https://www.linkedin.com/in/michaelbull/

For more commercial real estate market data, sector forecasts, and video episodes, visit CREshow.com.
America's Commercial Real Estate Show is brought to you by our proud sponsors.

TCN Worldwide: Commercial real estate property management, leasing, and sales solutions across the US and globally. Learn more: https://www.tcnworldwide.com

Build Out: The ultimate product suite for commercial real estate brokerage firms looking to streamline their business. Learn more: https://www.buildout.com

Bull Realty: Regional commercial real estate brokerage services headquartered in Atlanta, delivering market intel and strategies. Learn more: https://www.bullrealty.com

Commercial Agent Success Strategies: Twenty-one cloud accessed commercial broker training videos with slide deck action notes. Learn more at https://www.commercialagentsuccess.com/

#CommercialRealEstate #CRE #RealEstateInvesting #CommercialRealEstateForecast #InterestRates #OfficeMarket #DataCenters #CapRates #RealEstateCycle #CREInvesting #Treasury #MichaelBull

Apartment rents grew 1.5% over the past 90 days, the fastest pace since late 2022. RealPage Chief Economist Carl Whitaker joins Michael Bull, CCIM, to break down where the multifamily market stands at mid-year 2026.

Carl walks through second quarter actuals and third quarter forecasts, and explains why the national average matters less than it ever has. Class A properties are posting growth rates on par with 2018 and 2019, Class B is finding its footing, and Class C has been left behind by a K-shaped economy. In Raleigh, Class C rents have now declined for 15 straight quarters.

The conversation covers the supply pullback versus resilient demand, how the 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act paused the build to rent pipeline and why new market rate starts are already returning in markets like Raleigh Durham, and why build to rent complements conventional apartments instead of competing with them.

Michael and Carl also dig into submarket dispersion, with Midtown, Buckhead, and Northeast Atlanta Class A rents up 2% to 3% year over year while the Atlanta metro average shows rents down 1.5% to 2%. They cover the cost side of the business, where taxes and insurance are finally cooling while marketing costs climb, and the effect of AI on rents and underwriting, with median rent to income now at its lowest level since 2020. Carl closes on the barbell shape of today's investment sales market and where he sees opportunity in second tier Southeast markets including Greenville Spartanburg, western North Carolina, and Chattanooga.

Connect with Carl Whitaker:
https://www.linkedin.com/in/carlwhitaker15/
RealPage Website: https://www.realpage.com

Connect with Michael Bull & The Show:
Michael Bull, CCIM
Bull Realty, Inc
https://www.linkedin.com/in/michaelbull/

 

Read More Here: https://www.bullrealty.com/intel/blog-posts/view/the-return-of-rent-growth-why-the-multifamily-recovery-is-splitting-by-class-and-submarket

For more commercial real estate market data, sector forecasts, and video episodes, visit CREshow.com.

America's Commercial Real Estate Show is brought to you by our proud sponsors.

TCN Worldwide: Commercial real estate property management, leasing, and sales solutions across the US and globally. Learn more: https://www.tcnworldwide.com

Build Out: The ultimate product suite for commercial real estate brokerage firms looking to streamline their business. Learn more: https://www.buildout.com

Bull Realty: Regional commercial real estate brokerage services headquartered in Atlanta, delivering market intel and strategies. Learn more: https://www.bullrealty.com

Commercial Agent Success Strategies: Twenty-one cloud accessed commercial broker training videos with slide deck action notes. Learn more at https://www.commercialagentsuccess.com/

#Multifamily #MultifamilyInvesting #ApartmentInvesting #CommercialRealEstate #RentGrowth #BuildToRent
#RealEstateInvesting #ApartmentMarket #CapRates #RealPage #CREShow #MichaelBull

US office vacancy sits at 13.8% while rents rise and inventory actually shrinks. CoStar's Phil Mobley breaks down the two-tier office market at mid-2026. 

Phil Mobley, National Director of Office Analytics at CoStar Group, joins Michael Bull, CCIM to explain why the office headlines and the office market have stopped matching. National vacancy peaked at 14.1% a year ago and now sits near 13.8%, with four consecutive quarters of positive absorption totaling roughly 20 million square feet. For perspective, that full year of demand would have been one decent quarter in 2018. 

The supply side is where this cycle breaks from history. New construction starts are running about 5 million square feet per quarter, a generational low, and for the past two quarters CoStar's data shows outright supply contraction: more office space is being demolished or converted than delivered, which has never happened before. 

Mobley also corrects the most common misconception about the office recovery. It is not simply Class A winning and Class B losing. Trophy assets, the top 5% of inventory, are performing strongly, and solid B and B-minus buildings serving price-sensitive tenants held up better than most people assume. The real occupancy damage landed on A-minus and B-plus product caught in the middle: not distinctive enough to compete with trophy space, too expensive to compete on price.

Also covered: why AI has been an unambiguous demand tailwind so far and the venture-capital risk hiding inside it, why return-to-office gains raise foot traffic without raising space needs, how New York and Dallas preview where the rest of the country is heading, why lease sizes have run 15% below pre-pandemic levels for nearly three years, and the capital markets shift as institutions climb back from 10% to 15% of office deal volume to around 20%, buying buildings to keep them as office. Plus the point every landlord should sit with: the total vacancy number is not the relevant number. Competitive vacancy is, and a landlord without capital to fund tenant improvements does not really have leasable space.

In this episode:
00:00 Is Office the Buy of the Decade?
01:19 The US Office Market: Smaller, but Recovering
02:22 Vacancy at 13.8% and Four Quarters of Positive Absorption
04:30 New Supply: Generationally Low and Now Contracting
06:02 Trophy vs. A-Minus: Where Occupancy Actually Collapsed
10:34 AI and Office Demand: A Tailwind With an Asterisk
14:13 Return to Office: Foot Traffic vs. Space Demand
16:40 Why New York Led, and How the Country Became Dallas
21:12 How Much Vacant Space Is Actually Leasable?
23:02 Tenant Improvement Capital and the Rise of Spec Suites
25:29 Lease Sizes Down 15% From Pre-Pandemic
27:01 Office Investment Sales: Institutions Are Buying Again
30:33 User Buyers, Two World Trade, and Occupier-Driven Construction
32:48 Forecast: Vacancy, Rents, and the Next 6 to 12 Months
34:36 Capital Is King: Corporations Building Their Own Space

 

Connect with Phil Mobley:
https://www.linkedin.com/in/phil-mobley/
CoStar Group Website: https://www.costar.com

 

Connect with Michael Bull & The Show:
Michael Bull, CCIM
Bull Realty, Inc
https://www.linkedin.com/in/michaelbull/

For more commercial real estate market data, sector forecasts, and video episodes, visit CREshow.com.

 

America's Commercial Real Estate Show is brought to you by our proud sponsors.

TCN Worldwide: Commercial real estate property management, leasing, and sales solutions across the US and globally. Learn more: https://www.tcnworldwide.com

Build Out: The ultimate product suite for commercial real estate brokerage firms looking to streamline their business. Learn more: https://www.buildout.com

Bull Realty: Regional commercial real estate brokerage services headquartered in Atlanta, delivering market intel and strategies. Learn more: https://www.bullrealty.com

Commercial Agent Success Strategies: Twenty-one cloud accessed commercial broker training videos with slide deck action notes. Learn more at https://www.commercialagentsuccess.com/

#CRE #CommercialRealEstate #OfficeMarket #OfficeSpace #RealEstateInvesting #CREForecast #OfficeVacancy #CoStar #TenantRepresentation #BullRealty

As commercial real estate navigates the mid-year of 2026, the primary point of uncertainty has officially shifted from the capital markets to the realities of underlying tenant demand. In this episode, host Michael Bull is joined by Xander Snyder, CRE Economist with First American, to break down their newly published mid-year market forecast.

While a flat yield curve and geopolitical tensions in Iran keep interest rate cuts firmly off the table for the remainder of the year, Xander delivers a highly optimistic, contrarian outlook for early-cycle investors. As the industry enters the early innings of a fresh 10-to-20-year expansionary cycle, the playbook has changed: structural valuation adjustments have re-opened sales volumes, and the path to outsized returns now rests entirely on asset-level expense management and protecting the downside.

Key Topics Covered in This Episode:

The Mid-Year Macro Overview: Xander explains why consumer debt, falling real wages, and targeted corporate AI spend mean demand metrics—rather than Fed interest rate adjustments—will define the second half of 2026.

The Illusion of the Labor Market: Squaring a 4.3% headline unemployment rate with a challenging job search environment, and how low employee turnover is impacting commercial space requirements.

Yield Curve Realities & The 10-Year Treasury: Navigating a flat, non-inverted yield curve and why historical data implies a 10-year Treasury path heading toward 5% to 6%, even without future Fed rate hikes.

Office Bifurcation & Traded Volume: How severe price corrections and near-zero new supply have allowed suburban office underwriting to work, driving a 40% to 50% spike in Q1 sales and refinancing activity.

The Defensive Floor Under Retail: Why a 15-year supply freeze paired with resilient consumer spending keeps brick-and-mortar retail exceptionally strong, despite isolated Class B and C mall closures.

Multifamily Capital Structure Distresses: Managing the wave of 2021-2022 floating-rate maturities, prohibitively expensive interest rate caps, and why lender takebacks are a story of capital right-sizing rather than structural demand destruction.

Industrial Stabilization by Asset Size: Why large-scale logistics spaces face short-term trade policy vacancies while localized industrial footprints under 50,000 square feet maintain tight 3% to 4% vacancy rates.

The Rare Property Insurance Expense Win: A deep dive into the temporary 10% to 15% drop in property insurance premiums driven by excess 2025 reinsurance capital, and how operators must capture these line-item savings to boost NOI while rents grow modestly.

Whether you are an institutional lender evaluating foreclosure strategies, a private syndicator structuring new performs, or a corporate user tracking localized Southeast growth metrics, this episode offers an elite framework for investing at the baseline of the next real estate cycle.

 

Connect with Xander:

https://www.firstam.com/economics/xander-snyder/

https://www.linkedin.com/in/xander-snyder-econ/

 

Connect with Michael Bull & The Show:

Michael Bull, CCIM

Bull Realty, Inc

https://www.linkedin.com/in/michaelbull/
 
For more commercial real estate market data, sector forecasts, and video episodes, visit CREshow.com.
 

America’s Commercial Real Estate Show is brought to you by our proud sponsors.

TCN Worldwide: Commercial real estate property management, leasing, and sales solutions across the US and globally. Learn more: https://www.tcnworldwide.com

Build Out: The ultimate product suite for commercial real estate brokerage firms looking to streamline their business. Learn more: https://www.buildout.com  

Bull Realty: Regional commercial real estate brokerage services headquartered in Atlanta, delivering market intel and strategies.Learn more: https://www.bullrealty.com

Commercial Agent Success Strategies: Twenty-one cloud accessed commercial broker training videos with slide deck action notes. Learn more at https://www.commercialagentsuccess.com/

How are Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) navigating economic shifts and outperforming the broader equity market in 2026?

In this episode of America's Commercial Real Estate Show, host Michael Bull sits down with Edward Pierzak, Senior Vice President of Research at Nareit, to break down the operational performance, balance sheet metrics, and future outlook for the REIT sector. Despite facing macroeconomic shocks like geopolitical conflicts and inflation worries, REITs have maintained incredible momentum throughout the first half of the year.

Edward provides an insider look into sector-specific trends—explaining why lodging, resorts, and data centers are leading the pack in 2026 after a turbulent 2025, and how well-amenitized, well-located properties are driving a performance bifurcation within the office sector.

Key Topics Covered
We explore how REITs are keeping their momentum and outpacing broad equity markets in 2026. Edward shares a deep dive into specific sectors, detailing the rebound of data centers, the rise of lodging and senior housing, and the nuanced truth behind the "office is dead" headlines. We also take a look into Nareit's REIT Industry Tracker, detailing how high occupancy rates, solid FFO, and fixed-rate unsecured debt are giving public REITs a competitive advantage.

Additionally, we discuss the lingering public-private divergence, examining why valuations are misaligned and what this dislocation means for savvy institutional and retail investors. Finally, we analyze the recent wave of consolidation, REIT-to-REIT mergers, and the growth of internal investment management platforms.

"REITs have had a great start of the year... we still think that there's definitely more fuel in the tank." — Edward Pierzak

Whether you are looking to invest, advise, or track institutional quality real estate trends, this episode delivers the vital market intelligence you need to finish 2026 strong.

 

Connect with Edward Pierzak:

https://www.linkedin.com/in/edwardfpierzak

Nareit Website: https://www.reit.com/

 

Connect with Michael Bull & The Show:

Michael Bull, CCIM

Bull Realty, Inc

https://www.linkedin.com/in/michaelbull/
 
For more commercial real estate market data, sector forecasts, and video episodes, visit CREshow.com.
 

America’s Commercial Real Estate Show is brought to you by our proud sponsors.

TCN Worldwide: Commercial real estate property management, leasing, and sales solutions across the US and globally. Learn more: https://www.tcnworldwide.com

Build Out: The ultimate product suite for commercial real estate brokerage firms looking to streamline their business. Learn more: https://www.buildout.com  

Bull Realty: Regional commercial real estate brokerage services headquartered in Atlanta, delivering market intel and strategies.Learn more: https://www.bullrealty.com

Commercial Agent Success Strategies: Twenty-one cloud accessed commercial broker training videos with slide deck action notes. Learn more at https://www.commercialagentsuccess.com/