The Week in Markets: December Fed meeting could be its strangest ever
Just weeks after hawkish Federal Reserve commentary dimmed December rate cut hopes, new dovish comments from New York Fed President John Williams have boosted rate cut odds back to 63%. With policymakers seemingly divided, a tied vote on the December 10 FOMC meeting – unprecedented in its history – remains possible.Markets remain uneasy in the meantime, with concerns on high AI spending and a Bitcoin bear market weighing on sentiment. Technical signals add to the unease with the S&P 500 and tech sector indices showing signs of a “head and shoulders” pattern, a bearish sign. Additionally, a leaked draft of President Trump’s Ukraine peace plan indicates the unfreezing of some Russian financial assets confiscated by the west, potentially implicating gold demand.This episode is presented by Mark Matthews, Head of Research Asia at Julius Baer.
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Beyond 60/40: The rise of hedge funds in modern portfolios
As markets evolve and the traditional 60/40 portfolio faces new challenges, are hedge funds becoming the next core allocation for resilient investing? In this episode of Beyond Markets, William Fong, Head of Alternatives Specialists at Julius Baer for Asia and the Middle East, speaks with Joe Dowling, Senior Managing Director and Global Head of Blackstone Multi-Asset Investing (BXMA), about how the endowment model is reshaping portfolio construction.Joe shares insights on why institutions have leaned heavily into alternatives, how multi-strategy hedge funds are delivering uncorrelated returns, and what private investors can learn from the playbook of elite endowments. From risk management to the “democratisation of alternatives”, this episode explores how hedge funds may just be part of the new 60/40 for long-term investors seeking durability and diversification.This episode was recorded on 28 October 2025.(00:10) - – The endowment model
(03:24) - – Is it limited to institutional investors?
(05:02) - – A typical allocation split
(06:28) - – The importance of a long-term approach
(07:16) - – Recent criticisms of the endowment model
(09:03) - – Hedge funds: a bond substitute?
(11:23) - – The rise of multi-strategy funds
(13:24) - – How multi-strategy funds have performed throughout volatility
(15:13) - – What to look for in a good multi-strategy fund
(16:33) - – Absolute return vs index investing
(18:33) - – Are multi-strategy funds getting too big?
(20:17) - – Are single-manager, single-strategy funds still relevant?
(21:32) - – Rebalancing – a critical element
(22:44) - – Fund manager expertise, and the art of portfolio construction
(27:01) - – Thoughts on private equity and infrastructure
(31:33) - – An ivy league education? Or an alternatives portfolio?
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The Week in Markets: Hawkish Fed commentary diminishes December rate cut hopes
Following hawkish commentary from six Federal Reserve presidents and promising indicators of October labour and consumer data, the market no longer expects a December rate cut. Meanwhile, recent technology stock performance suggests the market increasingly distinguishes between sustainable and speculative growth, and leverage. Over in Asia, China's stock market is supported by the country’s leadership in electrification, more exports of high-technology products and services, a slowly appreciating Renminbi, and governmental efforts to promote equity investment and corporate governance reforms. This episode is presented by Mark Matthews, Head of Research Asia at Julius Baer.
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Is the gold narrative shifting?
Gold has been on a wild ride lately — surging past USD 4,000 an ounce before tumbling in one of its biggest corrections in years. What’s really driving this volatility, and how are the narratives around gold evolving?Chris Irwin, Head of FX and Precious Metals Trading Asia, and Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research at Julius Baer, discuss the changing forces behind gold’s rally — from questions over the Fed’s independence and fears of dollar debasement to the role of central bank buying and China’s strategic accumulation. The conversation also touches on the outlook and trends for silver and the broader precious metals market.This episode was recorded on Nov 10, 2025.(00:22) - Narratives driving the gold market
(02:25) - Dollar resilience or temporary pause?
(03:55) - Mixed signals from the Fed
(05:35) - Do geopolitics really matter for gold?
(06:49) - Central bank buying and structural trends
(09:55) - China’s gold strategy
(12:55) - ETF flows: Conviction or speculation?
(15:25) - Chinese regulatory changes, and impact on precious metals landscape
(17:27) - Section 232 and silver
(20:45) - Is the mythical $50 level in silver still in play?
(21:25) - Outlook and key takeaways
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The Week in Markets: Tangible evidence of AI’s role in workforce reductions
The University of Michigan’s November consumer sentiment survey, and October private sector job cuts tracked by outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas, have raised concerns the US economy may be entering a recession. But data from ADP, state-level initial jobless claims, and the Chicago Fed’s unemployment estimate, all paint a picture of a healthy economy. A closer look at the Challenger data, however, suggests the reason for job cuts is Artificial Intelligence. While AI might be able to displace humans in technology companies, it is unlikely to replace workers in many other sectors anytime soon. Still, it is clear labour is a primary worry in the market.
“Beyond Markets” by Julius Baer is a series featuring conversations with experts to share recent market developments, key insights, and strategic inputs from around the globe. In each episode, we cut through the noise to offer practical advice and macro research on today’s shifting economic and market landscape.
The information contained in this podcast is marketing material. Opinions expressed do not constitute independent financial/investment research, investment advice, or an offer to buy or sell securities by Julius Baer. Please refer to www.juliusbaer.com/legal/podcasts for important legal information prior to listening to this podcast.
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