Explaining History

In this episode of the Explaining History Podcast, we examine a remarkable moment: the leading architect of the Project for a New American Century, Robert Kagan, admitting that the Iran crisis is a catastrophe of unprecedented proportions – and that America has effectively lost the war.**

The Project for a New American Century (PNAC) was the neoconservative think tank that shaped the foreign policy of the George W. Bush administration. Its vision was a unilateral American empire, able to fight and win two major wars simultaneously, with Iran at the top of its enemies list. But now, writing in *The Atlantic* – the house magazine of liberal interventionism – Kagan has declared that the Gulf War is unwinnable, that Iran has seized control of the Straits of Hormuz, and that the post-war American order is finished.

What does it mean when the neocons themselves admit defeat? Kagan acknowledges that Iran has turned the straits from a passageway of free navigation into the world's most significant global pinch point. Iran will now decide which regimes can access Gulf shipping and which will be economically starved. America cannot project power into the Gulf; it has presented itself as an unreliable ally. The consequences for Taiwan, Japan, and other US partners are dire: they will not hesitate to break ties if a powerful regional predator comes calling.

Kagan’s only proposed alternative is a “massive generational land and air war” occupying Iran forever – an impossibility so absurd that it reveals the neocons’ delusion. The Saudis, meanwhile, have concluded that the US and Israel are the aggressors, and that the entire attack was designed to drag them into a war with Iran. The eight-decade alliance forged by Franklin Roosevelt is now fraying. America is being expelled from the Gulf.

This is the end of Pax Americana. Regional powers will now call the shots. Smaller nations will have to accommodate larger neighbours. And the neocons – after decades of advocating violent empire – have finally admitted that the project for a new American century is dead.

**Topics covered:**
- The Project for a New American Century (PNAC)
- Robert Kagan’s *Atlantic* article
- Iran’s control of the Straits of Hormuz
- The end of American naval supremacy
- Saudi Arabia’s break with Washington
- The collapse of Pax Americana
- Neocon delusion and the impossibility of occupying Iran

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*If you enjoy the podcast, please consider supporting us – we are migrating from Patreon to Substack. Details in the show notes.*

Explaining History helps you understand the 20th Century through critical conversations and expert interviews. We connect the past to the present. If you enjoy the show, please subscribe and share.
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**In this solo episode of the Explaining History Podcast, we return to Eric Hobsbawm's magisterial overview of the 20th century, *Age of Extremes*, to explore the paradoxes that shaped our world – and the crisis that defines our present.**

Hobsbawm argued that the "short twentieth century" – from 1914 to 1991 – was defined by the confrontation between capitalism and communism. But the relationship between these two systems was stranger than simple opposition. The victory over Hitler's Germany was essentially won, and could only have been won, by the Red Army. Without the Soviet Union, the Western world would likely consist of a set of variations on authoritarian and fascist themes, not liberal parliamentary ones.

Yet the most lasting result of the October Revolution was to save its capitalist antagonists – by providing the incentive of fear to reform itself after the Second World War, and by furnishing it with the popularity of economic planning. The post-war Golden Age (1947–73) – that unprecedented era of rising living standards, mass consumption, generous welfare states, and growing life expectancy – was, in Hobsbawm's word, "anomalous". It emerged from specific historical conditions: the need to stave off communist challenge, the availability of cheap energy, and the destruction of old ruling classes.

That Golden Age is now long gone. Neoliberalism has de‑industrialised the West, privatised public assets, and replaced productive capitalism with rentier capitalism – where we rent the infrastructure of our own lives back from global capital. Social democratic parties across the Western world have abandoned any commitment to redistribution, embraced managerialism, and collapsed into irrelevance. Right‑wing populists – Trumps, Orbáns, Farages – have rushed into the vacuum, offering not solutions but the spectacle of permanent crisis.

Hobsbawm died in 2012, but his framework helps us see our moment: an era of decay, of institutional collapse, of centre‑left parties dying. As Gramsci put it, the old is dying and the new cannot be born. And that new may not be born in Europe or America. The centre of gravity is shifting eastwards – to India and China – returning to where most of human history has been centred.

We are living through the death of the post‑war social democratic order. What comes next is uncertain – but it will not look like the past.

**Topics covered:**
- Hobsbawm's "short twentieth century"
- The Red Army and the defeat of Nazism
- The paradox of Soviet communism saving capitalism
- The post‑war Golden Age (1947–73) as an anomaly
- De‑industrialisation and the rise of rentier capitalism
- The collapse of social democratic parties
- Neoliberalism, the 2008 crisis, and the absence of alternatives
- Right‑wing populism and kleptocracy
- The shifting global centre of gravity to Asia

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*If you enjoy the podcast, please consider supporting us – we are migrating from Patreon to Substack. Details in the show notes.*

Explaining History helps you understand the 20th Century through critical conversations and expert interviews. We connect the past to the present. If you enjoy the show, please subscribe and share.
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In this episode of the Explaining History Podcast, we explore a little‑known but revealing corner of Russian history: the military press during the reign of Alexander II.

After the humiliating defeat in the Crimean War, it was clear that Russia's army – and the autocracy that sustained it – needed fundamental change. Alexander II, who came to power as the war dragged on, embarked on a series of "Great Reforms", most famously the emancipation of the serfs in 1861. But reform was always a balancing act between modernisation and the preservation of autocratic power.

Nowhere were these tensions sharper than in the military press. Historian E. Willis Brooks, in an essay from the collection *Reforming the Tsar's Army*, examines how War Minister D. A. Milyutin used newspapers and journals to communicate new ideas to officers and conscripts – while struggling to control the very voices he had unleashed.

Publications like *Ruski Invalid* (The Russian Veteran) and *Voyeny Sbornik* (Military Review) were meant to be loyal instruments of state policy. But as they sought readers and relevance, their editors – some of them former utopian socialists – began to clash with government censors and even the Tsar's ministers. The result was a chaotic, semi‑autonomous press that both advanced reform and exposed its contradictions.

We look at the founding of new military journals, the explosion in readership, and the uneasy partnership between Milyutin and his old radical acquaintance Colonel Pisarevskii, who was given the extraordinary task of running a government newspaper as a capitalist enterprise. Their struggle over "official" and "unofficial" opinions reveals the limits of censorship – even in an autocracy.

Topics covered:
- The Crimean War and Russia's military humiliation
- Alexander II's Great Reforms
- War Minister D. A. Milyutin
- The military press: *Ruski Invalid*, *Voyeny Sbornik*
- Censorship and the "epoch of sensorial terror"
- The experiment of semi‑commercial government journalism
- Pisarevskii, utopian socialism, and the dangers of editorial independence
- How state‑led reform struggles with public communication

If you enjoy the podcast, please consider supporting us – we are migrating from Patreon to Substack. Details in the show notes.

Explaining History helps you understand the 20th Century through critical conversations and expert interviews. We connect the past to the present. If you enjoy the show, please subscribe and share.
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In this episode of the Explaining History Podcast, we examine the enduring legacy of austerity – a policy that officially ran from 2010 to 2024, but whose cultural and political effects are still very much with us.

The Labour government has made token gestures toward rolling back austerity – ending the two‑child benefit cap, for example – but the structural damage done to British society is likely unfixable without something approaching wartime levels of economic mobilisation. The real story, however, is not just about cuts. It is about how austerity was sold to the public.

Drawing on Liam Stanley's *Britain Alone*, I explore how thrift became a nationalist virtue. The "keep calm and carry on" aesthetic, wartime nostalgia, and television shows like *Super Scrimper* turned prudent consumption into a marker of belonging. Those who made the "right" choices – growing vegetables, knitting, reusing leftovers – were celebrated as proper Britons. Those who didn't – often the working poor – were stigmatised as feckless, their poverty framed as a moral failing rather than a structural one.

The two‑child benefit cap was never about economics. It was a weapon of class prejudice, designed to punish poor families for having "too many" children. And it worked – not because it saved money, but because it appealed to middle‑class anxieties about who deserves support.

Austerity may be officially over, but its ideology of moralised consumption lives on.

Topics covered:
- The persistence of austerity after 2024
- The two‑child benefit cap and class prejudice
- Liam Stanley's *Britain Alone*
- Wartime nostalgia and "austerity chic"
- The "keep calm" phenomenon
- TV thrift programmes and the moralisation of consumption
- How consumer choices became markers of national identity

Explaining History helps you understand the 20th Century through critical conversations and expert interviews. We connect the past to the present. If you enjoy the show, please subscribe and share.
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In this episode of the Explaining History Podcast, we are joined by author Douglas Brunt to discuss his fascinating new book, The Lost Empire of Emmanuel Nobel – the story of the greatest oil magnate you've never heard of, and the turbulent Russian decades that swept him away.

Emmanuel Nobel, nephew of the more famous Alfred (inventor of dynamite and founder of the Nobel Prizes), built an oil empire that by 1900 had surpassed Standard Oil. His Nobel Brothers Petroleum Company dominated the oil fields of Baku (modern-day Azerbaijan), introduced the world's first oil tanker, and supplied the Tsar's military with fuel as the Russian army mechanised. He was, for a brief window, the most important oil man on the planet.

But Emmanuel was more than an industrialist. He was an unusually enlightened employer in a brutal industry – building schools and housing for his workers, who proudly called themselves "Nobelites". His benevolent practices protected him during the 1905 revolution, when Rothschild's operations were targeted. Yet even his fortune and influence could not survive the seismic forces of the First World War and the Russian Revolution.

Douglas traces the Nobel family's journey from Sweden into the Russian Empire, the grandfather's bankruptcy and reinvention, the technical genius of Ludwig Nobel, and Emmanuel's transformation of Baku from a backward oil field into a global powerhouse. We explore the modernising reforms of Tsar Alexander II and Finance Minister Sergei Witte, the shift from kerosene to gasoline as the internal combustion engine took root, and the geopolitical scramble for oil that made Churchill declare petroleum "more important than food".

The conversation then turns to revolution. Douglas reveals Nobel's desperate final years – writing to British leaders, warning of the Red Army's advance on Baku, and offering a plan that might have crushed Bolshevism in its cradle. Had Churchill's advice been taken in 1919, the 20th century might have looked very different. Instead, Nobel fled in disguise, aided by former employees, and watched as Stalin systematically erased his legacy – tearing down statues, renaming streets and factories, and rewriting history. Orwell's *1984* was directly inspired by the erasure of Emmanuel Nobel.

**Topics covered:**
- The Nobel family's journey from bankruptcy to Russian industrial might
- Alfred Nobel, dynamite, and the Nobel Prizes
- Baku oil fields and the rivalry with Standard Oil
- The invention of the world's first oil tanker
- Tsarist modernisation and foreign investment
- The 1905 revolution and Nobel's "enlightened employer" reputation
- Lenin, Stalin, and the Bolshevik seizure of power
- Why the British failed to intervene in 1919 – a sliding-door moment
- Nobel's harrowing escape from Russia
- Stalin's memory‑hole: how *1984* was inspired by Nobel's erasure

*Douglas Brunt's previous book explored Rudolf Diesel; his new book, The Lost Empire of Emmanuel Nobel, is published on 19th May. Please consider ordering from an independent bookstore or directly from the publisher.

Explaining History helps you understand the 20th Century through critical conversations and expert interviews. We connect the past to the present. If you enjoy the show, please subscribe and share.
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▸ Read Articles & Go Deeper
Website: explaininghistory.org

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