RaboResearch Food & Agribusiness North America

In this week's episode, Steve Nicholson, Head of North American Crops with RaboResearch, discusses Northern Hemisphere crop conditions, grain and oilseed markets, and emerging global risks with RaboResearch colleagues from around the world including:  
Lief Chiang, Senior Industry Analyst, Asia 
Vito Martielli, Senior Grains & Oilseeds Analyst, Europe 
Owen Wagner, Senior Grains & Oilseeds Analyst, North America 
While geopolitical risks, including impacts from the Middle East, remain part of the discussion, the conversation focuses on China-US trade developments, growing weather risks across key agricultural regions, and signs that strengthening demand could provide support to commodity markets. 
Time stamps:  
0:08 – Introduction, Steve Nicholson, Head of North American Crops with RaboResearch Food & Agribusiness 
0:33 – China and Asia – Lief Chiang, Senior Industry Analyst China corn and soybean crop conditions
Weather risks across Asia and emerging El Niño concerns
China-US trade relations and soybean imports
Crop protection and fertilizer export outlook 

14:16 – Europe – Vito Martielli, Senior Grains & Oilseeds Analyst Impacts of Europe's heat wave
Wheat production outlook
Russian and Ukrainian crop update
Corn market concerns in France and the EU
Rising import demand and trade opportunities
Ukraine's continued export resilience 

23:05 – North America – Owen Wagner, Senior Grains & Oilseeds Analyst US corn and soybean crop conditions
Field observations and regional variability
Southeast US production challenges
China-US soybean demand outlook
Whether grain markets are finding a bottom
Global supply risks and demand recovery
A look ahead at input costs, weather, and market opportunities 

40:45 – Wrap up and conclusion 
If you have any questions you would like for us to consider, please send them to eric.gibson@raboag.com.
 
Disclaimer: Please refer to our global RaboResearch disclaimer at https://www.rabobank.com/knowledge/disclaimer/011417027/disclaimer for information about the scope and limitations of the material published on the podcast.

In our latest episode, Sam Taylor, Farm Inputs Analyst with RaboResearch, is joined by Justin Ratcliffe, Principal Analyst for Fertilizers at CRU North America, to explore the near-term outlook for global fertilizer markets. Justin leads CRU's North American fertilizer coverage, focusing on pricing, market intelligence, and strategic insights across nitrogen, phosphates, and potash.
Geopolitical disruptions and shifting trade flows continue to shape markets, while affordability pressures and evolving supply dynamics are driving divergence across nutrients. Nitrogen prices have softened amid strong imports and cautious demand, while phosphate markets remain constrained by tight supply and elevated sulfur costs.
The discussion highlights how these dynamics are creating ongoing volatility and uncertainty, with implications for global agricultural productivity over the next 12–24 months.
Time stamps
00:00 – Welcome and introduction
02:30 – Nitrogen reset: geopolitics, supply influx, and demand hesitation drive price correction
12:25 – Nitrogen price outlook
13:50 – Phosphates: tight supply vs. affordability constraints
19:35 – China and supply risk: export uncertainty and tight sulfur supplies
27:25 – Potash: stability and affordability support steady demand
30:00 – Forward risks: policy shifts and "black swan" events with limited market impact amid growing resilience
33:30 – Closing remarks and Kansas City BBQ
If you have any questions you would like for us to consider, please send them to eric.gibson@raboag.com.








 
Disclaimer: Please refer to our global RaboResearch disclaimer at https://www.rabobank.com/knowledge/disclaimer/011417027/disclaimer for information about the scope and limitations of the material published on the podcast.

In this episode, members of the global RaboResearch team provide a brief update on grain and oilseed markets and production across some of the Southern Hemisphere's largest growing regions, including Australia, Southern and Southeast Asia, and South America.
Amid ongoing concerns around the Iran conflict and its impact on energy and agricultural inputs, our analysts discuss how these pressures are affecting regional production and profitability, and how impacts may evolve into the second half of 2026.
At the same time, the lingering threat of El Niño could introduce additional stress across key growing regions and global trade flows. These combined factors are already driving shifts in crop mix and planted area for the current season, with important implications for 2027 and beyond.
Time stamps:
00:00 – Steve Nicholson, Head of North American Crops: Welcome.
00:32 – Vitor Cacula Pistoia, Senior Analyst – Grains & Oilseeds, Australia: Iran conflict impacts on inputs and diesel, margin pressure, and El Niño risk.
5:14 – Oscar Tjakra, Senior Analyst – Southern & Southeast Asia: Palm oil outlook, El Niño risk, and the Iran conflict's impact on Indian production.
11:13 – Marcela Marini, Senior Analyst – Grains & Oilseeds, South America: Brazil production outlook, cost pressures, and potential planted area adjustments.
18:00 – Wrap-up and conclusion
Be on the lookout for our next episode, featuring regional updates for the Northern Hemisphere including China, Europe, and the US.
If you have any questions you would like for us to consider in our discussion, please send them to eric.gibson@raboag.com.

Disclaimer: Please refer to our global RaboResearch disclaimer at https://www.rabobank.com/knowledge/disclaimer/011417027/disclaimer for information about the scope and limitations of the material published on the podcast.

RaboResearch's Farm Inputs Analyst Sam Taylor discusses the ever-complex topic of US fertilizer supplies and production with CRU Group's Head of Market Intelligence, Chris Lawson. As farm profitability is reaching historic lows and inputs remain high, a great amount of attention has been placed on fertilizer's role in farm economics. With growing political pressures to increase self-sufficiency, a number of other barriers remain constant in the ability to significantly increase domestic production of nitrogen, phosphorus, and potash.
In recent news, the Trump administration has announced efforts to drastically increase capabilities and support, aiming to lessen the demand for fertilizer imports by accelerating domestic capacity. At the same time, multiple input companies and other sources would suggest curtailment in domestic production is the short-term reality. Efforts to boost US fertilizer supply may have no choice but to rely on imports. However, opportunities exist with the right partners – namely the US' neighbors to the north and south.
Chris Lawson serves as Head of Market Intelligence at CRU Group, providing pricing and consultancy guidance for the organization. With his Australian farming background, Chris is well-rooted in agriculture and understands the sector's cross-value chain needs.
Time stamps:
1:38 – Introducing Chris Lawson, CRU Group
2:30 – Can the US realistically boost fertilizer production over the next two to three years?
4:10 – Why nitrogen is the best opportunity for the US to reduce its trade deficit on fertilizers
11:52 – Phosphates: production curtailment in the short-term, but what about long-term production in the US?
18:05 – Exploring raw materials outside of the US and potential alternatives for traditional mining sources
22:10 – Can strategic reserves offset the highs and lows of production and cost cycles?
24:50 – Strategic partnerships and trade are a necessary requirement to ensure input availability moving forward, particularly with potash
25:50 – North American solutions vs. exclusively US production and supply
28:00 – Wrap-up and conclusion
If you have any questions you would like for us to consider in our discussion, please send them to eric.gibson@raboag.com.

 
Disclaimer: Please refer to our global RaboResearch disclaimer at https://www.rabobank.com/knowledge/disclaimer/011417027/disclaimer for information about the scope and limitations of the material published on the podcast.

Welcome back to the North America Agribusiness podcast channel. Did you miss us? We're starting up a new series, focused on production and markets for North American crops, ranging from commodities in the Midwest to specialty crops in California. In this episode, the RaboResearch North American Crops team discusses how the conflict in Iran is impacting global crop production – and what that means for North American agriculture.
But first, we would like to introduce you to our team. Focusing on all things crops, from grains and oilseeds to stone fruits and berries, we bring current and timely insights along with in-depth overviews of the research we are conducting, as well as what we are hearing across the agri-food value chain.
In today's episode, we are excited to introduce our six-member team and some of the research we're working on.
Our team includes:
Steve Nicholson, Head of Crops, North America
David Magaña, Senior Fresh Produce and Tree Nut Analyst
Sam Taylor, Executive Director, Farm Input Analyst
Owen Wagner, Senior Grains and Oilseeds Analyst
Al Griffin, Senior Data Analyst
Eric Gibson, Crop Production Sustainability Analyst
Over the coming weeks, we will further explore research topics ranging from the competitiveness of North American crops and value drivers to specialty crop opportunities and soil health. Check back every couple of weeks to see what our team and other members of RaboResearch have in store.
Time stamps:
01:00 – Meet the North American RaboResearch Crops Team
12:45 – Research we are currently focusing on and will cover in future episodes
35:15 – Impacts of the Iran conflict on crop production and farm inputs in 2026 and into 2027
43:58 – Conclusion, until next time!
If you have any questions you would like for us to consider in our discussion, please send them to eric.gibson@raboag.com.
 
Disclaimer: Please refer to our global RaboResearch disclaimer at https://www.rabobank.com/knowledge/disclaimer/011417027/disclaimer for information about the scope and limitations of the material published on the podcast.