The Metrics Brothers (fka SaaS Talk)

• Calculating NRR in Usage- and Outcome-based Pricing

  In this episode, "The Metrics Brothers," Growth (Ray Rike) and CAC (Dave Kellogg), dive into a critical challenge for modern SaaS and AI-Native companies: accurately calculating Net Revenue Retention (NRR) in environments that utilize variable pricing models (usage-based, outcome-based, etc.).They begin by defining NRR, emphasizing its importance as a key metric and its high correlation with Enterprise Value-to-Revenue multiples.The brothers then dissect the primary challenge: the absence of traditional Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) in non-annual contract models. They explore different proxies for ARR, including MRR x 12 and Implied ARR (Quarterly Revenue x 4), and discuss the pitfalls of each, particularly the risk of overstating annual revenue due to seasonality or significant one-time deals.Finally, they offer their preferred, cohort-based method for calculating NRR—the "Snowflake Method" or "Two-Year Look Back"—which compares the current revenue of a specific group of customers (cohort) to their revenue from a year ago. They conclude with a discussion on how this method helps dampen the "noise" and variability inherent in usage-based data when trying to measure expansion and contraction.📊 Key Takeaways & Discussion PointsNRR Definition & Importance: NRR measures how much recurring revenue you retain and expand from your existing customer base over a period, factoring in upsells, cross-sells, downgrades, and churn. It's a top-tier metric for investors, correlating highly with enterprise valuation.The ARR Proxy Problem: In usage-based and outcome-based models, true ARR (based on annual contracts) doesn't exist, requiring the use of proxiesMRR x 12 and Implied ARR (Q4 Revenue x 4) are common but suffer from issues like seasonality or the timing of large deals, often leading to an overstatement of forward-looking revenue.Trailing Spend is presented as the most reliable underlying truth, as it reflects the actual usage and revenue generated by the customer.Best Practice: The Cohort Method for NRR:The recommended approach is a cohort-based calculation that eliminates the need to rely on potentially flawed ARR proxies.The Calculation: Take a specific cohort of customers who existed one year ago (e.g., all customers as of December 31, 2024). Divide their revenue today (December 31, 2025) by their revenue one year ago.The Two-Year Look Back Method (Snowflake): This method is "self-correcting" as it naturally excludes new customer revenue, ensuring the NRR accurately reflects only the existing customer base.Dealing with Usage-Based Variability (Noise): Variable usage can lead to "noise" in quarterly expansion/contraction metrics. Using a trailing 12-month period (year-over-year) for the NRR calculation is safer than a quarterly view, as it dampens this volatility and provides a clearer signal of long-term customer value.If you are responsible or measured on NRR in a variable pricing model environment, this episode is a great listen to understand the pitfalls and best practices of calculating Net Revenue Retenion.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

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• The 2025 State of B2B GTM Report

  For their 100th episode, Ray "Growth" Rike and Dave "CAC" Kellogg get philosophical, inspired by the notion that many hold, which is "nothing works" in B2B GTM anymore - especially in regards to pipeline development.They dive into the 2025 State of B2B GTM Report by Kyle Poyar and Maja Voijc to challenge this idea and find out what GTM leaders are actually prioritizing.In this episode, The Metrics Brothers break down:The State of the Market: Analyzing a survey of 195 GTM leaders, including data on small companies, growth rates, and the surprising lack of correlation between GTM motion and growth.The "Pipeline Crisis": Discussing why scaling existing GTM motions is the number one priority, even when many GTM leaders feel their current efforts aren't effective.Too Much Noise: A look at the "distraction chart" [slide 12] showing the staggering number of channels and strategies B2B companies are trying, and why the report suggests this is "too much".The Tried and True GTM Quadrant: Highlighting the activities with the biggest likelihood of impact, including Intimate Events, Intent-Based Inbound, and LinkedIn [slide 13].The Winner Take All Future: Exploring the massive trend of investing in Answer Engine Optimization (AEO) [slide 18] and breaking down tactical recommendations for optimizing for ChatGPT and other answer engines, emphasizing the importance of facts and platforms like Reddit and G2 [slide 19].Must Try GTM Tools: Reviewing the next generation of GTM tools, with a focus on cutting-edge platforms like Clay, Lovable, Sora, and Replit for data automation, outbound, and video generation [slide 29].Whether you're a Founder, CMO, CRO or GTM leader, this episode offers a data-driven look at where to focus your budget and attention in the year ahead.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

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• A New Agentic AI Metric: Containment Rate

  In this episode of The Metrics Brothers, Ray “Growth” Rike and Dave “CAC” Kellogg break down one of the emerging metrics in the Agentic AI era: Containment Rate - the percentage of tasks an AI agent completes (resolves) end-to-end without human intervention.They explore multiple aspects of the Containment Rate Metric including:How containment rate differs from classic chatbot metric - deflection rateWhy defining “resolved” and/or "completed" is essential to calculating containment rateHow the metric connects directly to ROIWhy ROI needs to include both the benefit (cost-savings) and the investment (expense) for the AI AgentRay and Dave also trace the history of containment from IVR to Chatbots to LLM-powered agents, debate common misconceptions, and outline benchmarks across customer support, IT, HR, and back-office agentic AI workflows.If you’re building, buying, or benchmarking AI agents - or trying to turn AI investments into measurable ROI — this episode delivers the context, clarity, and humor only The Metrics Brothers can provide.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

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• The Air Street State of AI Report 2025

  Air Street Capital’s Nathan Benaich just dropped the 2025 State of AI Report — a 313-page tour de force on where artificial intelligence is today and where it’s headed next. In this episode, Dave “CAC” Kellogg and Ray “Growth” Rike break down the highlights, surprises, and bold predictions shaping the future of AI, software, and the global economy.They explore:Why this report is becoming the “Mary Meeker Internet Report” of the AI eraKey insights across research breakthroughs, model performance, geopolitics, enterprise adoption, and market maturityThe Top 10 Predictions that could define the next 12 months — from AI agents running $5B in ad spend to the first UN emergency debate on AI securityPredictions discussed include:Retailers generating 5%+ of online sales via agentic checkoutOpen-sourcing frontier models to win government favorAI-driven scientific discoveries completed end-to-end by autonomous agentsDeepfake or agent-led cyberattacks prompting NATO-level actionA real-time generative video game dominating Twitch“AI neutrality” emerging as a new foreign policy doctrineAI-produced films earning major audience praise (and backlash)A Chinese lab surpassing U.S. AI leadershipDatacenter NIMBYism shaping local electionsAnd even AI entering U.S. presidential politics through executive orders and court battlesIf you work in B2B software, this episode is your roadmap to how AI is transforming not just technology — but business models, economics, and the balance of global power.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

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• AI Agents Winning Hearts and Wallets, A New Report from G2

  AI Agents (also known as Agentic AI) are quickly becoming one of the most talked-about ways for enterprises to operationalize generative AI. G2 recently released a new research report — “A Leap of Trust: AI Agents Are Winning Hearts and Wallets” — highlighting where adoption is happening and why.In this episode, Dave “CAC” Kellogg and Ray “Growth” Rike break down the report’s findings and what they mean for business leaders evaluating AI strategies today, including:How efficiency and effectiveness gains translate into real business outcomesThe connection between Parkinson’s Law and AI Agent scalingWhich industries are leading AI Agent adoptionThe top use cases emerging across the enterpriseWhy Time to Value may be faster than expectedContainment Rate — the new metric that mattersAnd whether AI Agents accelerate a return to IT-centric projectsIf you're evaluating how to bring Generative AI into your organization — including whether to deploy packaged AI applications or pursue an agentic approach — this conversation is full of practical insights and thought-provoking perspectives you won’t want to miss.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

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About The Metrics Brothers (fka SaaS Talk)