The Incerto Podcast

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I am stoked to welcome back one of the most out there and interesting writers, thinkers and speakers, Rory Sutherland.
He founded the behavioural science team at the Ogilvy group, he is one of Europe’s most powerful advertising executives and author many many books and articles, his most recent book, Alchemy, coming highly recommended and is a treatise on how great marketing ideas are built around the profoundly irrational… Rory appeared once before on this podcast in episode 115.
And today, for his second appearance I was lucky enough to do this with Rory in person, I got the train out of London to Rory’s hometown and we settled up in the courtyard of a beautiful little cafe in the sun. And so, you get the ambience of birds and wind to frame the conversation.
There are no timestamps on this podcast today, because with Rory’s erudition there is unseen flow from one thought to another that makes a narrow subject timestamp non suitable, rather, consume this one in full, we open with Salman Rushdie and his days as a copywriter to Rory reflecting on his recent notoriety, a powerful insight that the best marketing is in fact fat tailed, behind the scenes of his Rick Rubin interview all the way to me asking Rory whether he’s ever done a floaty.
Other episode of the podcast that suit this episode...
Rory Sutherland – First Appearance #115
Scott Patterson – Chaos Kings
Nassim Taleb & Incerto Podcast
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✍︎: The Curious Worldview Newsletter - the ultimate compliment to the podcast...

Other episode of the podcast that suit this episode...
Brian Klaas – Fluke & Randomness
Russ Roberts – EconTalk
Luca Dellanna – Ergodicity All The Way Down
Scott Patterson – Chaos Kings
Nassim Taleb & Incerto Podcast
Follow me on Instagram – @ryanfhogg

Everything Is Predictable – Tom Chivers
Tom Chivers is a prolific science writer whose written for Buzzfeed, The Telegraph, Unherd, published books, written for loads of other publications as well and now writes for Semafor’s daily flagship email (something I read everyday)… but here Tom is today to discuss his book about Bayes called… EVERYTHING IS PREDICTABLE: How Bayes’ Remarkable Theorem Explains the World and, the lead is not buried in this case, it is a book about Bayes Throerom which to put it simply… is an equation to calculate probability.
Now, my Talebian listeners will recognise a contradiction to our worldview in the title here… everything is predictable? how often has Taleb’s quotes, how can we predict a future of infinite possibilities based off a finite experience of the past appeared on this podcast? We get into Chivers differences with that Talebian worldview, but as well, there is top to bottom what is Bayes theorem, why does it matter, the role of this theorem at the foundation of all of these LLM’s and therefore much of AI. a neat little anecdote of Chivers family member, Sir John Maynard Keynes and plenty more as well!
00:00 – Who Is Tom Chivers
01:34 – Great Great Uncle John Maynard Keynes
08:44 – What’s The Point Of Bayes?
19:14 – What Is Bayes Theorem?
39:34 – Disagreeing With Nassim Taleb 
52:24 – Counterintuitive Aspects Of Bayes
56:28 – Bayes & LLM’s & AI
1:15:12 – Serendipity In Tom’s Life
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https://atlasgeographica.com/brian-klaas/

Brian Klaas is an associate professor in global politics at University College London, author of several books, host of a really good podcast, creator of a huge substack and someone who has created a life for himself for which I wish to emulate many parts…
We recorded this in person!… Brian and I sat down together in his Winchester kitchen and spoke about randomness, chance, Nassim Taleb, Flukes and why all these things are worth thinking about…
If you like Taleb, then Brian’s new book, Fluke which just came out… is right up your alley. Brian’s research is wonderful.
00:00 – Who Is Brian Klaas?
01:00 – Life Can Be Understood Backwards, But It Must Be Lived Forwards.
11:55 – Does Brian Feel Like He Has More Or Less Agency?
20:51 – Taleb’s Blindfold Metaphor & The Problems Of Prediction.
35:20 – How Nassim Taleb Effected Brian’s Worldview.
44:55 – Why Experimentation Is Wise.
50:55 – Why The Minority Rule Is Relevant To Politics.
53:20 – Extremistan V Mediocristan
1:03:00 – The Idea Of Lock-In.
1:07:30 – Serendipity In Brian’s Life & The Media Landscape In The Next 20 Years.
1:22:00 – Brian’s Favourite Authors.
1:24:30 – An Ode To Madagascar & Explanation OF Geographical Determinism.
Curious Things Mentioned During The Episode
Scott Patterson – Chaos Kings
Russ Roberts – Reflecting on 15 Years Of EconTalk
Luca Dellana – Ergodicity
Me Being Interviewed For The Profile On Nassim Taleb
Nassim Taleb Incerto Podcast
Nassim Taleb Incerto Book Reviews
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The following is with the debut Italian on this podcast, the one and only Luca Dellanna.

Luca is the extremely successful author of 9 books, and he writes these alongside his day job, as an independent consultant advising businesses across the world at the intersection of risk and behavioural psychology 

This makes him the best communicator of the subject of todays conversation, which funnily enough is the very same title of most recent book... Ergodicity.
Time Stamps For Luca Dellanna
00:00 – Introduction
01:23 – What Is Ergodicity?
05:53 - Why Does Ergodicity Matter?
15:23 - Fat Tails & Power Laws
22:43 - Consultants & Skin In The Game
29:50 - Ole Peters & Ergodicity In Insurance
39:58 - The Perfect Example To Explain Ergodicity + My Attempt At Applying Ergodicity To Cricket
48:31 - Behavioural Change Is Non Ergodic
51:35 - Kelly Criterion In Nature + Survivorship Bias & Lindy
1:07:58 - The Influence Of Nassim Taleb
1:16:03 - Serendipity & Ergodicity
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Russ Roberts ladies and gentlemen.
One of the true OG’s of podcasting and in fact so OG, that Russ is one of the mediums earliest adopters, Russ has been at this racket for nearly 20 years now since he debuted EconTalk in 2006. 
And although economics is literally in the title, the show expands well beyond the narrow domain of theoretical economics – it is much broader and has transformed over the years into one of the most authentic reflections of a hosts shifting curiosities.
And with guests the likes of Milton Friedman, Thomas Pikety, Christopher Hitchens, Michael Lewis and even the great and elusive Nassim Taleb, you can see why EconTalk is one of the most appraised shows out there.

Time Stamps For Russ Roberts
00:00 – Introduction
02:23 – Christopher Hitchens
07:32 – Good Communication Versus Good Talking… (Podcasting?)
29:53 – Do Certain Cultures Create More Good Communicators Than Others?
35:46 – Nassim Taleb All The Way Down
59:08 – I Run A Theory By Russ + Russ Reflecting On EconTalk
1:12:03 – The Role That Serendipity Has Played In Russ’s Life
1:17:23 – Country Russ Is Particularly Bullish On
1:22:51 – Conversation Between Any Two People Of History
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Curious Things Mentioned During The Episode
Christopher Hitchens Mortality
Ben Burgis – Life Of Christopher Hitchens
Scott Patterson – Chaos Kings
Nassim Taleb & Incerto Podcast