The Long Game with Jake Sullivan and Jon Finer

Backlash against AI and data centers helped fuel Democrats sweeping midterm victory last week. As AI promises to reshape geopolitics and national security, Jake and Jon speak with Dwarkesh Patel, host of the Dwarkesh Podcast, whom economist Tyler Cowen has called “the number one chronicler of the AI era.”

They discuss Patel’s prediction that by 2030, “we'll have AIs that are at least as good as the best human experts in every field.” They also explore whether AI regulation can keep pace, whether the U.S. and China can agree on AI safety, and the debate over advanced chip sales to China amid reports of Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang’s relationship with an alleged Chinese spy.

Upgrade to The Long Game+ on Apple to support the show and access exclusive audio segments. This week, Patel weighs in on which tech CEO has the most “realistic” vision of the future and whether instilling AI with human values is the wrong move.

Join us on Substack for video versions of exclusive podcast segments, transcripts, and more: https://thelonggame.substack.com/

Watch the video version of this episode on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@podlonggame

Email Jake and Jon with your questions and comments at longgame@voxmedia.com

Follow The Long Game so you never miss an episode. New episodes drop weekly.

The Long Game is produced by the Vox Media Podcast Network.

References and supplemental materials

Tom Cunningham, Nate Rush, Parker Whitfill, and Hjalmar Wijk, Independent Assessment of AI R&D Acceleration at Anthropic in October 2026, METR, November 5, 2026.

OpenAI, On the Navier–Stokes Millennium Prize Problem, OpenAI, September 8, 2026.

Dwarkesh Patel, The Rise and Fall of Agent Civilizations, Dwarkesh Podcast, August 29, 2026.

Dwarkesh Patel, Jensen Huang – TPU competition, why we should sell chips to China, & Nvidia’s supply chain moat, Dwarkesh Podcast, April 15, 2026.

Dwarkesh Patel, Blog prize for the big questions about AI, Dwarkesh Podcast, April 24, 2026.

Bernie Sanders and Greg Casar, Ban Artificial Superintelligence Act (announcement and bill links), Office of Senator Bernie Sanders, September 23, 2026.

Photo Credit: Kevin Frayer/Getty Images
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New York Times reporter Jonathan Swan, co-author, along with Maggie Haberman, of the bestselling book Regime Change: Inside the Imperial Presidency of Donald Trump, joins Jake Sullivan and Jon Finer following Democrats’ sweeping midterm victory. As results continue to come in, they examine what drove the Republican defeat and what it means for Trump’s final two years in office.

After the Iran war fractured Trump’s winning coalition, what can a Democratic Congress do to constrain a president with broad power over foreign policy?

Drawing on his reporting inside the White House, Swan explores the tension between political weakness and presidential power. Then, in The Wrap, Jake and Jon revisit their predictions, flag stories to watch, and share recommendations for what to read and watch.

Upgrade to The Long Game+ on Apple to support the show and access exclusive audio segments. This week, Jake and Jon discuss the latest news from Iran. Is further US military escalation on the horizon?

Join us on Substack for video versions of exclusive podcast segments, transcripts, and more: https://thelonggame.substack.com/

Watch the video version of this episode on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@podlonggame

Email Jake and Jon with your questions and comments at longgame@voxmedia.com

Follow The Long Game so you never miss an episode. New episodes drop weekly.

The Long Game is produced by the Vox Media Podcast Network.

References and supplemental materials

Maggie Haberman and Jonathan Swan, Regime Change: Inside the Imperial Presidency of Donald Trump, Simon and Schuster, June 2026

Jonathan Swan, Maggie Haberman, Ana Swanson, Paul Mozur, Tripp Mickle and Julian E. Barnes, “Nvidia Chief Seen as Target of Chinese Spy Plot,” The New York Times, October 29, 2026

Gideon Lewis-Kraus, “Computer Chips Are the Most Magnificent Things Humanity Has Ever Made,” The New Yorker, October 19, 2026

Conan O’Brien, “Conan’s Chaotic Bidet Ad Read,” Team Coco, December 23, 2023

The Diplomat, Netflix, October 15, 2026

Photo Credit: Brendan SMIALOWSKI / AFP via Getty Images
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Michael Kofman, defense analyst at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, returns to The Long Game as Russia intensifies its bombardment of Ukraine and decisions made in Washington reshape Kyiv’s ability to fight.

Kofman examines the gap between Russia’s military performance and its demands at the negotiating table; the leverage each side currently holds and the deadly consequences of throttling Ukrainian access to SpaceX’s Starlink and StarShield.

Upgrade to The Long Game+ on Apple to support the show and access exclusive audio segments.

Join us on Substack for video versions of exclusive podcast segments, transcripts, and more: https://thelonggame.substack.com/

Watch the video version of this episode on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@podlonggame

Email Jake and Jon at longgame@voxmedia.com

Follow The Long Game so you never miss an episode. New episodes drop weekly.

The Long Game is produced by the Vox Media Podcast Network.

References and supplemental materials

Alexander Ward, Natalie Andrews, and Josh Dawsey “Musk Ordered Starlink Slowdown That Blindsided Ukraine,” The Wall Street Journal, October 21, 2026

Photo Credit: Nikoletta Stoyanova/Getty Images
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Israelis are preparing to vote in their first election since the October 7 terrorist attacks. Barak Ravid, global affairs correspondent for Axios, joins Jake and Jon to discuss the stakes of the election. Will Benjamin Netanyahu be re-elected for a historic seventh term as prime minister?

With polls exceedingly close, Barak explains the challenge Netanyahu’s opposition will face in translating their electoral support into a governing coalition. He also weighs in on what the elections will mean for Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza and the future of Pres. Trump’s Middle East agenda. Drawing on his deep-sourced reporting and decades covering Israeli politics and the US-Israel relationship, Barak says October 7 is on the ballot and next week’s election will determine the future of Israeli democracy.

Access to video versions of exclusive podcast segments, transcripts, and more on Substack: https://thelonggame.substack.com/

Watch the video version of this episode on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@podlonggame

Email Jake and Jon at longgame@voxmedia.com

Follow The Long Game so you never miss an episode. New episodes drop weekly. The Long Game is produced by the Vox Media Podcast Network.

References and supplemental materials

Barak Ravid and Marc Caputo, “Inside Trump, Netanyahu’s dilemma: Strike Iran before elections or wait,” Axios, October 13, 2026.

Barak Ravid, “Trump tells Axios why he endorsed Netanyahu’s reelection,” Axios, October 18, 2026.

Barak Ravid, “Biden tells Bibi he's concerned about Israel's judicial overhaul legislation,” Axios, September 20, 2023

Donald J. Trump, “President Donald J. Trump’s Comprehensive Plan to End the Gaza Conflict,” The American Presidency Project — White House press release, September 29, 2025. The American Presidency Project

P5+1, European Union, and Iran, “Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action,” US Department of State, July 14, 2015.

Photo credit: Jack GUEZ / AFP via Getty Images
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President Trump has struck a diesel deal with Russia as fuel prices squeeze Americans. But what does easing restrictions on Russian exports mean for Ukraine and for efforts to end the war? Jake Sullivan and Jon Finer examine the deal’s potential economic impact, the growing tension between Washington and Kyiv, and the prospects for an energy ceasefire as winter approaches.

Then, renewed fighting between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis raises difficult questions about American commitments in the Middle East. With Saudi airports and energy infrastructure under attack, could the United States or Israel enter the fight? What could either accomplish?

Finally, an Options Memo for NATO’s Secretary General: How should the alliance respond if Russian sabotage kills civilians in a member country? Jake and Jon weigh “light,” “medium,” and “heavy” responses, exploring the challenge of restoring deterrence without triggering a wider war. Listen for the hard choices behind the headlines and the risks each carries.

Access to video versions of exclusive podcast segments, transcripts, and more on Substack: https://thelonggame.substack.com/

Watch the video version of this episode on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@podlonggame

Email Jake and Jon at longgame@voxmedia.com.

Follow The Long Game so you never miss an episode. New episodes drop weekly.

The Long Game is produced by the Vox Media Podcast Network.

References and supplemental materials

Gen. Alexus G. Grynkewich, Supreme Allied Commander Europe, NATO, Theory of Victory: How Do We Achieve Military Success Against Russia in Deterrence and Defence?, Warsaw Security Forum, October 12, 2026.

Feras Dalatey, “Amazon's AWS is unable to restore access to Bahrain, one UAE cloud data zone after war damage,” Reuters, September 15, 2026

Photo credit: Mohammed HUWAIS / AFP via Getty Images

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