The Peter Schiff Show Podcast

The yen just hit a 40-year low and Japan is trapped. Whether they hike or freeze, it ends the same way: the pin that pricks our bubble.

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Investors are far too complacent about risks that are now hiding in plain sight. The AI trade cracked this week: Alphabet fell 10% after announcing even higher CapEx, Oracle is down 41% on the year, Meta and Amazon fell, and Microsoft is nearly in a bear market. SpaceX now trades 49% below its post-IPO high with its float set to jump from 5% to 40% by year end, and Tesla dropped 18%, costing Elon Musk nearly $100 billion in a week. Peter Schiff compares the roughly three-quarters of a trillion dollars in annual AI CapEx to the dot-com build-out, where the early favorites went bankrupt and took their vendors down with them.

The bigger danger is Japan. The yen fell to a 40-year low against the dollar, the 30-year JGB yield hit an all-time high near 4%, and with debt above 200% of GDP and a policy rate still at just 1%, Japan is trapped. Whether the Bank of Japan finally hikes aggressively or stays timid, the result spills into the United States, potentially forcing the world's largest holder of US Treasuries to dump its $1.1 trillion position. Schiff calls Japan the pin that pricks the far bigger US bubble. Meanwhile the US 30-year yield hit a 20-year high of 5.16% on more than four times the debt of 2006, oil is up 30% in July guaranteeing a hotter CPI, and gold rose on the week even as bonds and stocks fell, with the miners signaling a bottom. He closes on why record-low jobless claims are meaningless in a gig economy and why Trump's new slave-labor tariffs are an unconstitutional tax on Americans.

Chapters:
00:00 Japan Sparks US Crisis
00:41 AI CapEx Reality Check
07:51 AI Bubble Parallels
13:03 Gold Miners Rebound
19:17 Oil Bonds Warning Signs
32:16 Japan Debt Rate Trap
34:36 Weak Yen Trade Deficits
37:22 Japan Creditor Status Slips
41:22 Two Japan Crisis Paths
44:26 US Vulnerability Dominoes
45:21 Unemployment Claims Hype
47:20 Why Claims Mislead
51:37 New Tariffs Legal Workaround
59:03 Wrap Up Subscribe Call

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Warsh admitted monetary policy caused inflation. Bessent thinks silver certificates still redeem at Fort Knox. And import prices are up 7.1%.

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Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told Fox viewers that old silver and gold certificates can still be redeemed at Fort Knox. Gold certificates were repudiated in 1933 and silver certificates in 1968. Peter Schiff argues that if the man who signs the currency does not know basic monetary history, there is no reason to trust his assurance that the gold in Fort Knox is all there.

Markets confirmed the AI bubble is deflating. SpaceX fell 13.25% on the week to close below $124, under its $135 IPO price, and anyone who bought the post-IPO high near $225 is down 45%. Only about 5% of the company trades today, but lockups expire through year end and take the float to roughly 40%, an eightfold increase in supply. Gold closed at $4,017 and silver at $55.83, which Schiff calls a head fake created by the false narrative that war is bad for gold.

The honest inflation numbers tell a different story than the CPI: import prices are up 7.1% year over year and export prices are up 10.2%, against a reported 3.5%. Kevin Warsh admitted in Senate testimony that monetary policy caused the inflation, then offered a plan that amounts to talking about it while the Fed's balance sheet grew another $7.4 billion. Schiff also covers Trump selling paid early access to market-moving posts and explosive new FOIA emails showing Euro Pacific Bank was shut down for publicity, with the Australian Tax Office driving the operation to protect a journalist facing his defamation suit.

Chapters:
00:00 Trump Posts Paywall
01:23 Market Week Wrap
07:42 Gold Silver War
09:52 Inflation Data Reality
23:30 Warsh Hearing Grifts
37:59 AI Jobs and Progress
40:22 Trump Post and Fox Fallout
44:05 FOIA Trail and Censorship Claims
50:31 Nine Fraud Bank Shutdown Emails
57:07 Operation Atlantis PR Exposed

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In 1914 the Fed ran on 40 people and no computers. Today it takes 23,000. Fire them all and let AI do it... it can't do any worse.

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Kevin Warsh delivered his first congressional testimony as Fed Chair, and Peter Schiff breaks down a hearing where everyone discussed inflation while misdefining the term and ignoring their own role in causing it. June CPI came in at -0.4% versus the expected -0.1%, dropping year-over-year inflation to 3.5% — but the entire decline came from a temporary oil price drop that is already reversing as the Iran war reignites and oil climbs back 20% in July. Bond yields tell the real story: the 30-year is back near 5.1% and the 10-year near 4.6%, erasing nearly the entire post-CPI rally.

Schiff's biggest revelation from the hearing: the Fed employs 23,000 people to do a job that required just 40 when it opened in 1914 — with no computers — and argues the entire institution could be replaced by a single AI or abolished outright. He dismantles Warsh's claim of "regime change" at the Fed as being as fake as regime change in Iran, exposes the redefinition of "price stability" to mean prices that rise just slowly enough that people stop complaining, and shows how the 2% target was always a lie invented to justify inflation. He covers Warsh admitting inflation is a tax while planning to keep levying it, the court throwing out Trump's self-negotiated IRS settlement that granted his family immunity, and the AI CapEx bubble turning tech's biggest cash generators into massive borrowers that will break the bond market.

Chapters:
00:00 AI Spending Arms Race
01:08 Markets Brace for CPI
06:07 CPI Surprise and Gold Whipsaw
07:34 Oil Driven Inflation Mirage
11:40 What Inflation Really Means
14:11 Congress and Fed Share Blame
17:58 Fed Headcount Shock
22:32 Two Percent Target Myth
27:05 Regime Change and Price Stability
33:40 Day One Recap Continues
34:09 Grow My X Account
35:13 Congress Inflation Theater
36:06 Trump Grift Claims
37:30 IRS Settlement Outrage
39:51 Rates Versus Balance Sheet
41:08 Who Wins Low Rates
43:46 Fed And Black Workers
49:09 AI Bubble Warning
51:15 Hyperscalers Debt Spiral
55:38 Bond Market Breaking Point
58:16 Strategy Stock Dilution
01:00:30 Bitcoin Levels And Regrets
01:01:30 Subscribe And Sign Off

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A new housing law just passed that guarantees prices go higher. Bonds are breaking. And every bank bullish on Bitcoin refuses to buy Stretch.

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The Iran peace deal collapsed and the war is back on, yet US stock markets barely reacted — the AI bubble powering tech kept the S&P and Nasdaq positive while gold and silver sold off, with gold closing at $4,019 and silver falling 3.5% below $60. Bond yields climbed back to cycle highs with the 10-year at 4.56% and the 30-year at 5.06%, and Peter Schiff sees a major breakdown ahead that will hit stocks, housing, and crypto simultaneously.

The 21st Century Road to Housing Bill became law without Trump's signature, and Schiff argues it will make housing worse, not better. Nine decades of government housing policy — every program sold as making homes more affordable — have produced the least affordable housing in American history, because subsidizing demand raises prices and the money ends up in sellers' pockets. Trump has openly said he wants home prices to rise, in the middle of an affordability crisis. Meanwhile SpaceX fell 36% from its highs in under two weeks with every open-market buyer underwater and lockup expirations still ahead. Every Wall Street firm covering Bitcoin is bullish — Citi at $82K, Standard Chartered at $100K, Bernstein at $150K, JP Morgan at $170K — yet not one is buying Stretch at $87.48, where a 13.7% yield proves the market doesn't believe Bitcoin can appreciate 12% a year. They don't believe their own forecasts.

Chapters:
00:00 Markets Defy Bad News
01:38 War Tensions and Metals
05:11 Bond Yields Warning Signs
06:57 AI Bubble and IPO Mania
11:42 Bitcoin Hype and Wall Street
17:07 Dollar Flat Oil Rising
18:09 Housing Bill Political Fight
19:54 Affordability Crisis Explained
24:16 How Subsidies Inflate Prices
32:03 Bubble Collateral Trap
32:58 Jobs Report Media Spin
34:40 Housing Supply Not Subsidies
37:20 Save America Act Debate
41:25 Voting Rights Republic Critique
52:49 Democracy Incentives Corruption
57:12 Two Party No Choice
58:42 Podcast Wrap Up

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Iran deal dead. DOGE dead. Saylor selling at a loss. Medieval serfs kept more of their income than you do. I warned you about all of it.

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The Iran peace deal collapsed and the war is back on, with Trump acknowledging he was "two weeks from a depression" when he agreed to the MOU — a confession Peter Schiff says handed Iran all the leverage. Oil jumped 6% to $75, but the real story is bond yields: the 10-year hit 4.58% and the 30-year 5.07% — nearly at cycle highs despite oil being 25% below its peak, proving the debt, not the war, is driving yields higher.

FOMC minutes revealed that 9 of 13 members now support rate hikes after zero did just 90 days ago — theatrics Schiff says Warsh is orchestrating to appear hawkish without ever delivering. The May goods trade deficit exploded to $106.5 billion despite Trump's tariffs, continuing the pattern from his first term. DOGE was officially shut down with zero spending cuts achieved. Strategy sold 3,588 Bitcoin at a $15,000 per coin loss while Stretch sank to $86, and Trump's new savings accounts give kids $1,000 in borrowed money they'll repay through inflation. Schiff closes by noting that medieval serfs kept 75% of their output — more than the average American keeps today — making modern taxpayers lower in status than feudal peasants.

Chapters:
00:00 Freedom Versus Slavery
00:46 Iran Deal Collapses
05:04 Markets React to War
07:15 Oil Bonds and AI Bubble
16:17 Fed Minutes Rate Hike Theater
21:28 Tariffs Inflation Excuses
26:10 Real Rates and Debt Trap
27:41 Trade Deficit Reality Check
30:03 AI Threat to Services Surplus
32:32 Democracy Deficits and Rights
34:59 Rights And Healthcare
36:28 Housing And Free Markets
40:08 Tax Cuts And Wealth Theft
45:55 Taxes And Modern Slavery
48:25 DOGE Shutdown And Bitcoin Crash

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