The Peter Schiff Show Podcast

Peter Schiff on why 86% of the S&P is already in a bear market, the 1973 and 2000 parallels, 5% Treasury yields, and new IRS emails on his bank.

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Market breadth has only been this bad twice in 100 years, and both times the S&P 500 fell nearly 50%.

Peter Schiff opens with the relentless rise in long-term yields: the 10-year Treasury closed at 5.16%, the 30-year at 5.49%, and the five-year at 5.00%, while stocks shrug it off. Mortgages sit above 7% only because the Trump administration ordered Fannie and Freddie to buy, and Peter expects 8% regardless. Bond yields rose even as oil fell from $100 to $92, showing the bond market has decoupled from the Fed narrative. The S&P is 0.7% from a record, but the average stock is 19% below its high, 60% of stocks are in bear territory, and new lows outpaced new highs three to one. Peter compares this to January 1973 and early 2000, the only two precedents, both followed by roughly 49% declines. He also covers the Michigan sentiment drop to 48.1 and the hoarding psychology behind it, Bill Ackman's call to raise the inflation target, why rising yields are bullish for gold, and the Trump-Xi meeting that produced no commitments. The second half returns to Euro Pacific Bank: newly unredacted IRS emails reveal an MOU with OCIF and no answer when the IRS-CI chief asked what the bank did wrong, while the receiver has repaid 78 of roughly 3,500 customers in four years and paid himself over $850,000.

Chapters:
00:00 Breadth Crash Warning
00:59 Bond Yields Surge
04:40 Global Rates and Mortgages
07:37 Oil Link Breaks
11:01 Consumers and Hoarding
14:58 Markets Misread Gold
18:47 Hidden Bear Market Breadth
21:06 History Rhymes Again
23:21 Ackman and Inflation Target
29:15 China Summit and Tariffs
33:05 Bank Shutdown FOIA Fight
38:20 FOIA Fight With IRS
39:11 Settlement And New Disclosures
42:03 Press Conference Double Standard
43:46 Jim Lee Email Questions
47:10 MOU Proof Of Coordination
50:56 Unanswered Questions Expose Narrative
55:02 Publicity Stunt Motive
56:04 Portugal Freeze Fallout
57:23 Receivership Numbers Breakdown
01:04:40 Government Vs Free Market Rant
01:06:41 Congress Won't Act
01:07:41 Wrap Up And Investing Pitch

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Peter Schiff on 22-year high yields, record diesel, McDonald's inflation warning, and Trump's claim he told Warsh how to vote.

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Peter Schiff reviews the rise in Treasury yields to multi-decade highs and what 5% rates would mean for interest on the $40 trillion national debt. He opens with a comment Donald Trump made after the Fed's 25 basis point hike: that he told Kevin Warsh he "might as well vote with the board." Peter argues that either Trump is lying or, if the conversation happened, the Fed chairman is clearing his votes with the president, and that Warsh should be asked directly at the next press conference.

He then turns to the bond market. The five-year auction cleared at 5.03%, the highest in just over 20 years; the 30-year reached 5.41%, a 22-year high, and the 10-year hit 5.12%. He expects the 10/30 spread, now under 30 basis points, to widen back toward 50 or more, and suggests shorting the 30-year against the 10-year. If the government pays 5% on $40 trillion, interest would run $2 trillion a year, about 35% of tax revenue and more than Social Security, with the debt growing by more than $3 trillion a year. He says stock investors still assume yields are near a top.

McDonald's stock fell about 5% after its CEO said inflation would stay elevated for "many more years," which Peter contrasts with Warsh's claim that expectations are anchored at 2%. He agrees with Warsh that growth does not cause inflation; loose monetary policy does.

Diesel set another record above $6.50 a gallon, near $10 in California. Peter argues a diesel export ban would cut production, and that drawing down the Strategic Petroleum Reserve leaves nothing for a real emergency.

On the midterms, he notes Democrats are now 65% favorites to take the Senate, with cost of living the top issue, and blames Trump rather than Biden for inflation, while the Gulf conflict looks to be worsening. He criticizes the White House for pulling credentials from CNN, Politico and MS Now, recounts Trump's reaction to his Fox & Friends appearance, and discusses California's lawsuit against Trump Media over selling early access to Trump's posts for $50,000 to $100,000 a month, which he calls insider information.

Peter closes with his Schiff Sovereign Plan B conference in Panama, which drew 130 to 140 attendees, and the story of his grandparents arriving through Ellis Island in 1902 and 1903 with no paperwork. His argument: the problem is not immigrants but the welfare state, and listeners should get their financial house in order, including gold, silver and TGold.

Chapters:
00:00 Diesel Hits Record Highs
00:52 Back From Panama Update
03:19 Trump Fed Comment Fallout
09:34 Treasury Yields Break 5%
12:42 Debt Interest Disaster Math
17:30 McDonalds Warns Inflation Years
22:20 Diesel Export Ban And SPR Risks
27:23 Midterms Senate Odds Shift
30:40 War And Media Crackdown Concerns
31:38 Press Ban Fallout
33:18 Fake News Double Standard
33:38 Fox Interview Backlash
35:54 Truth Social Insider Edge
37:12 Market Moving Posts Explained
41:13 GOP Hypocrisy Warning
43:06 Panama Plan B Conference
45:27 Why Panama Appeals
47:40 Gilded Age Tariff Myth
48:45 Open Immigration Then
55:21 Welfare State Border Reality
59:23 Plan B Portfolio Prep
59:51 Signing Off Anniversary

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The Fed hiked a quarter point. Peter explains why it will not stop the bond market, the dollar, or what is already coming for housing.

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The Fed finally hiked. Peter says the quarter point changes nothing about what is already in motion.

The Federal Reserve raised the fed funds rate 25 basis points to 3.75 to 4 percent, a 90 percent probability going in and a unanimous vote coming out. Peter's read is that none of that signals resolve. The Fed did not hike because it wanted to. Months of tough talk had stopped working, the bond market had called the bluff, and the committee was left with a put-up-or-shut-up moment it could not dodge. So it did the smallest thing available, and Kevin Warsh gave the shortest press conference of his tenure on the way out.

A quarter point does not touch inflation heading for a four handle, not with oil above 100 dollars and diesel at record highs. The reason the Fed will not do more is not caution, it is capacity. A hike large enough to break inflation would break the economy and the Treasury's ability to fund itself.

The market understood immediately. The Dow closed down roughly 600 points after being green before the announcement, and the 10-year Treasury pushed back above 5 percent, which Peter calls a stepping stone to 6. He also covers Trump's demand for sub-1 percent rates, Scott Bessent's testimony, why 8 percent mortgages are coming, and why he expects gold to recover from this selloff quickly.

Chapters:
00:00 Fed Hikes Under Pressure
00:33 Markets Priced In the Move
03:46 Fed Cornered by Inflation Talk
06:38 Symbolic Hike and Market Fallout
10:11 Fiscal Policy and Real Inflation
21:31 Bond Yields Surge and Trump Reacts
32:28 Import Cold Turkey Fallout
33:40 Tariffs And China Surplus
35:08 Empty Shelves Economic Crash
36:18 Five Thousand Dollar Dividend
44:30 Bonds For Bombs And Meme Coins
53:32 Crypto Politics Gold Outlook Farewell

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#PeterSchiffShow #FedRateHike #Inflation #Gold #BondMarket

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Fox dropped Peter for saying inflation would accelerate. August CPI proved it. Now an 88% rate hike, 19-year-high yields, and $100 oil.

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Peter got dropped from Fox News for saying inflation would accelerate. August CPI just proved him right.

Last December Peter went on Fox News and said prices were still rising and the rate of increase would accelerate. Trump called him a Trump hater; Fox stopped booking him. Today's CPI: up 0.4% for August, 3.4% year over year, core hotter than expected, PPI running 5.4%, oil back over $100. Consumer inflation expectations jumped to 4.6%. Everything he said would happen has happened, while the president told a Republican convention this week that prices are "rapidly going down."

Markets now put 88% odds on a rate hike next week, and Peter says the Fed has backed itself into a corner: Warsh has talked tough for so long that not hiking ends the Fed's credibility. But a symbolic 25 basis points "ain't gonna cut it" when inflation is rising faster than rates. The bond market already knows. The 10-year hit 4.97%, a 19-year high, the 30-year 5.35%, and Peter argues we're only six years into a bear market where 5% is nowhere near the top, with $40 trillion of debt to refinance. He also takes apart Trump's $5,000 "dividend" (a bribe paid from $4 trillion of new debt), calls gold dips a gift, and says Bitcoin's chart projects to zero.

Chapters:
00:00 Fox News Inflation Call
00:34 9/11 Reflections and Liberty
05:27 CPI Report and Fed Odds
14:16 Symbolic Hike Won’t Work
36:49 Metals and Bitcoin Check
37:51 Bitcoin Head and Shoulders
39:24 Why a Midterm Convention
44:55 The 5000 Dividend Claim
57:17 Inflation Jobs and Wrap Up

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Oil near $100, copper at a record, and the Fed still says 2%. Why the bond market breaks before the stock market does.

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Oil near $100, copper at a record, and 65 straight months above 2%. Peter says the bond market breaks first.

Brent touched $99.50 and copper hit an all-time high, and Peter's point is that the Fed's 2% target was already unreachable when oil was falling. Sixty-five months above target, and now the inputs are rising again. PPI Thursday and CPI Friday could both come in hot, and if they do, the damage shows up in bonds before it shows up in stocks. The market is pricing roughly 60% odds of a hike next week. Peter doesn't think the Fed will do it, and thinks 25 basis points wouldn't matter if it did, since the market would immediately start pricing the next one.

The rest is the bill coming due elsewhere. China just posted a record trade surplus, with August exports up 25% year over year and exports to the US up 34%, which is what happens when tariffs price Americans out of the best deal rather than moving production home. Peter got the receipt himself: the courier billed him for the tariff, then billed him again to process it. Meanwhile the hyperscalers that used to park cash in Treasuries are borrowing from the same pool the government needs, at a moment when interest costs already run $1.2 trillion a year.

Chapters:
00:00 Intro
00:39 War Shock Fuels Commodities
02:15 Copper vs Gold Real Money
06:11 Iran War Drags On
21:31 Tariffs and Trade War Fallout
30:18 Producers vs Consumers
31:50 Tariffs Shift Trade
35:52 Why Trade Wars Fail
43:37 Nickels Beat Treasuries
50:59 Fed, Inflation, and Wrap-Up

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