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• 第2719期:Why is it so hard to get rid of bed bugs?(1)

  In 1834, the British Royal Navy ship, the Chanticleer, was dealing with a terrible cockroach infestation. The ship's surgeon, however, wrote enthusiastically about the stowaways, describing them as a “most valuable insect.” Their shining characteristic? Devouring every bedbug on board.1834年，英国皇家海军舰艇“雄鸡号”（Chanticleer）遭遇了严重的蟑螂侵扰。然而，船上的外科医生却热情洋溢地描述了这些偷渡者，称它们是“最珍贵的昆虫”。它们的闪光点是什么？吞噬船上的每一只臭虫。Bedbugs have tormented humans for millennia, so detested that their mere mention can make hearts race and arms itch. So why are these unwelcomed houseguests so difficult to defeat?臭虫折磨人类已有数千年，令人厌恶至极，以至于只要一提起它们，就会让人心跳加速、手臂发痒。那么，为什么这些不受欢迎的“客人”如此难以消灭呢？There are approximately 100 species of bedbugs. Thankfully, only three feed on humans, all of which are chestnut brown, half a centimeter long, and incredibly flat— as long as they haven’t eaten recently.臭虫大约有100种。值得庆幸的是，只有三种以人为食，它们都是栗褐色的，半厘米长，而且非常扁平——前提是它们最近没有进食。To find their next blood meal, bedbugs follow the biological signals our bodies release, such as carbon dioxide, odor, and body heat. Once located, they use their straw-like mouthparts to inject a cocktail of proteins that dilate blood vessels for easier feeding, along with an anesthetic to block any pain that might give them away. These compounds and other foreign proteins are what can trigger our immune response. While some people’s bodies don’t react to these bites, others develop itchy, red lesions that can stick around for several weeks. And these bites can appear anywhere on the body— it’s a myth that they always appear in neat rows or sets of three.为了找到下一顿血餐，臭虫会追踪我们身体释放的生物信号，例如二氧化碳、气味和体温。一旦找到位置，它们就会用类似吸管的口器注入一种混合蛋白质，扩张血管以便更容易吸血，同时还会注入麻醉剂来阻止任何可能暴露它们的疼痛。这些化合物和其他外来蛋白质能够触发我们的免疫反应。有些人的身体对这些叮咬没有反应，而另一些人则会出现发痒的红色病变，这些病变可能会持续数周。而且这些叮咬可能出现在身体的任何部位——它们总是成排或三个一组出现的说法是错误的。While they're not considered social insects like bees or ants, bedbugs cooperate in fascinating ways. They huddle together in piles, called refugia, stacking their flat bodies within wall cracks or furniture, which is thought to help them preserve precious moisture and energy reserves. They release chemical signals, known as pheromones, to alert each other to threats. And their feces are rich in volatile compounds that help guide feeding bedbugs back to the safety of the refugia in the dark.虽然臭虫不像蜜蜂或蚂蚁那样被认为是社会性昆虫，但它们的合作方式却令人着迷。它们会挤在一起，形成一堆被称为“避难所”的群体，将扁平的身体塞进墙壁缝隙或家具里，这被认为有助于它们保存宝贵的水分和能量储备。它们会释放化学信号，即所谓的信息素，来提醒彼此注意威胁。它们的粪便富含挥发性化合物，有助于引导正在进食的臭虫回到黑暗中安全的避难所。Once a colony is established, it has tremendous staying power. Bedbugs can go weeks or months without a meal.一旦建立了虫群，它们就会拥有强大的生存能力。臭虫可以几周甚至几个月不进食。

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• 第2718期:I'll probably lose my job to AI(3)

  So a final thought experiment. Imagine trying to explain your life right now to a Luddite. Better yet, just imagine trying to explain the life of some ordinary British working-class stiff whose great, great, great, something, great grandfather was out there smashing machines. And I'm not just talking about the ordinary stuff about daily living standards like indoor plumbing. I mean, indoor plumbing is extremely awesome. But imagine trying to explain mass post-secondary education or the BBC. Nursing homes or bachelorette weekends. I mean, for that matter, weekends and standardized time. How about suburbs and pizza delivery? And a nation so rich that when a pandemic strikes, people can afford to wait that out at home while scientists, like -- "What is a scientist," asks the Luddite -- while scientists rush out a magic shot that helps keep people from dying.那么，让我们做最后一个思想实验。想象一下，你要向一个卢德主义者解释你当下的生活。更进一步，想象你要向某个普通的英国工人阶级顽固分子解释生活——他高祖父的某位先祖曾参与过捣毁机器的运动。我指的不仅仅是像室内管道这样的日常生活标准（虽然抽水马桶确实了不起），而是试着解释这些：全民高等教育或英国广播公司，养老院或单身女郎周末派对。对了，还有周末这个概念和标准时间制。郊区生活和披萨外卖呢？再比如，这个国家如此富裕，当疫情来袭时——"科学家是什么？"卢德主义者问道——民众能安然宅家等待，而科学家们能火速研制出神奇疫苗挽救生命。To a Luddite, that would have sounded like a fairy tale, and he'd be right. We are living in fairyland, and indeed, we all have magic wands in our pockets. I believe I see a few of you waving them around right now. And I'm sure he'd have asked, "But how could a spinning jenny lead to all that?" And it wasn't just a spinning jenny. It was an unprecedented wave of innovation after innovation.对卢德分子来说，这听起来就像童话故事，他说得没错。我们生活在仙境，的确，我们每个人口袋里都揣着魔杖。我相信现在我看到你们当中有些人正在挥舞着魔杖。我肯定他会问：“但是一台珍妮纺纱机怎么能带来这一切呢？” 而且这不仅仅是一台珍妮纺纱机。这是一波又一波前所未有的创新浪潮。Many of those innovations put people out of good jobs, but collectively, they also made it possible for us to be in this room together or listening on the internet, rather than huddled by a smoky fire knitting stockings to sell. The mill owners couldn't have imagined what was coming, any more than Henry Ford understood that he was helping to speed along the sexual revolution by creating mobile love buggies for teenagers.许多创新让人们失去了好工作，但总的来说，它们也让我们能够聚在一起，或者上网收听，而不是挤在烟雾缭绕的炉火旁织袜子兜售。工厂主们无法想象接下来会发生什么，就像亨利·福特无法想象他为青少年设计移动爱情车会加速性革命一样。They were just trying to make a profit. But we're the ones who profited the most. So to return to where we started. Yes, I am scared of AI.他们只是想赚钱。但我们才是最大的赢家。所以，回到最初的话题。是的，我害怕人工智能。I assume that the government is going to try to do something for displaced workers, maybe provide them job retraining. But like the Luddites, I'm a human being working in a proud tradition. I don't want a government handout. I want the career that I have spent more than 20 years building.我猜政府会尝试为失业工人做些什么，或许会为他们提供再就业培训。但就像卢德分子一样，我是一个秉承着自豪传统的人。我不想要政府的救济。我想要的是我花了20多年时间打造的事业。And still, when I'm lying awake at night and wishing and maybe trying to figure out some way that I could stop this thing, or at least slow it down a little, I remind myself, I try to remind myself of all the reasons I shouldn't want that, even if I could.然而，当我晚上躺在床上无法入睡，希望并试图找到某种方法来阻止这件事，或者至少让它慢下来一点时，我提醒自己，我试图提醒自己所有我不应该想要它的理由，即使我可以。I don't have any right to steal the future from our descendants, because I'm already living in someone else's future. And it is literally better than they could have imagined.我没有任何权利窃取我们后代的未来，因为我已经生活在别人的未来里了。而且它比他们想象的还要美好。

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• 第2717期:I'll probably lose my job to AI(2)

  Very few people in this room have ever worried about how they were going to obtain food or shelter or heat, or how they were going to bury a child who died of diarrhea before its first birthday. Those worries are the normal condition of humanity. We escaped them only through massive chronological luck. That is a precious and totally unearned inheritance, and I think we have an obligation to pay that forward and leave an even bigger legacy for our descendants.在座的各位，很少有人曾经担心过如何获得食物、住所或取暖，或者如何安葬一个不到一岁就死于腹泻的孩子。这些担忧是人类的常态。我们之所以能逃脱这些担忧，完全是因为巨大的时间运气。这是一笔宝贵的、完全不劳而获的遗产，我认为我们有义务将其传承下去，为我们的后代留下更丰厚的遗产。To do otherwise, it's a kind of theft. It's stealing from the future. Picture what it would have looked like if the Luddites actually had managed to halt progress in its tracks. Effectively, they'd have been reaching forward in time and taking almost everything we have in order to enrich themselves.否则，就是一种偷窃。这是从未来窃取。想象一下，如果卢德分子真的成功阻止了进步，那会是什么样子。实际上，他们已经超越了时间，掠夺了我们几乎所有的东西，以充实自己。Now, obviously, that's not how they understood what they were doing. But it would have been true just the same. So picture that, really picture it. A spinner sells a few spools of thread and suddenly you don't have a car. A weaver sells a handloom cloak and whoops, there go your refrigerator, your central heating and your college education. A whole suit of clothes and thousands of kids just died of preventable disease.显然，他们并非如此理解自己在做什么。但这本来也无可厚非。想象一下，真的想象一下。一个纺纱工卖出几卷线，突然间你就没车了。一个织布工卖出一件手工织布斗篷，哎呀，你的冰箱、中央供暖和大学教育都泡汤了。整套衣服都没了，成千上万的孩子却死于可预防的疾病。So when you're tempted to halt the innovation that might compete for your job, you have to ask yourself, How much am I willing to steal from my grandkids? I mean, from everyone's grandkids.所以，当你想要停止那些可能抢走你饭碗的创新时，你必须问问自己，我愿意从我的孙辈那里偷走多少东西？我的意思是，从每个人的孙辈那里偷走多少东西。Now, I know some people in the audience are probably thinking, but that's different. We already have it really good, we've got airplanes and mRNA vaccines and HBO. But of course, a Luddite would have thought the same thing. They couldn't have imagined a future in which the average worker is literally leading a healthier and more comfortable life than 19-century royalty.我知道在座的有些人可能在想，但情况不一样。我们已经过得很好了，有飞机、mRNA疫苗和HBO。当然，卢德分子也会这么想。他们无法想象未来普通工人的生活会比19世纪的皇室贵族更健康、更舒适。Others might be asking, quite reasonably, but what about global warming and endangered species? I mean, is progress really all that great? Well, I'd ask you to remember your last trip to the dentist and then reimagine it without the Novocaine.其他人可能会问，这很有道理，但全球变暖和濒危物种怎么办？我的意思是，进步真的那么好吗？好吧，我建议你回想一下你上次去看牙医的情景，然后再想象一下没有使用奴佛卡因时的感受。Now I know the obvious retort. "That's a libertarian canard." You can want modern medicine without wanting us to have burned all that coal.现在我知道该如何反驳了。“那是自由意志主义的谎言。”你可以想要现代医学，但不必担心我们烧掉那么多煤。But my retort is that that doesn't work. The same Industrial Revolution that led to global warming has also made us so rich that we could afford to divert millions of workers from agriculture and weaving into science and medicine. It's also, as we've been hearing all week, giving us the tools to fight ecological disaster. But we couldn't have predicted any of that from the outset. We kind of had to live the change in order to understand what it meant.但我的反驳是，这根本行不通。导致全球变暖的工业革命也让我们变得如此富有，以至于我们有能力将数百万工人从农业和纺织业转移到科学和医学领域。正如我们这周一直在听到的，它也为我们提供了对抗生态灾难的工具。但我们从一开始就无法预测这一切。我们必须亲身经历这场变革才能理解它意味着什么。Now, actually, it's worse than that, because it's often quite easy to picture the near-term downsides. I mean, just read any article about AI. But the long-term upside is much harder to grasp because progress is cumulative, and the longer it accumulates, the weirder it gets.现在，实际上情况比这更糟，因为人们通常很容易想象短期的负面影响。我的意思是，随便读读任何一篇关于人工智能的文章就知道了。但长期的正面影响却难以把握，因为进步是累积的，积累的时间越长，就越奇怪。

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• 第2716期:I'll probably lose my job to AI(1)

  Well, I gather I'm not the only one who spends a lot of time thinking about AI these days. And by think I mean panic.嗯，我想，最近花大量时间思考人工智能的人不止我一个。我说的“思考”指的是恐慌。I'm not even worried about the doomsday scenarios because I have no way to assess those. I just think about what's going to happen to jobs, because even if we solve the AI safety problem, it's still going to displace a lot of workers, maybe including me.我甚至不担心末日景象，因为我无法评估。我只是在想工作岗位会发生什么变化，因为即使我们解决了人工智能的安全问题，它仍然会取代很多工人，也许包括我在内。Twenty years ago, I decided to take my very expensive MBA and use it to become a journalist. That decision did not have what we MBAs like to call a "positive expected cash flow."二十年前，我决定攻读昂贵的MBA学位，并利用它成为一名记者。这个决定并没有带来我们MBA们所说的“正预期现金流”。When I was interviewing for a job at "The Economist," one of the interviewers actually just asked me, "Why are you doing this?" I told him, "I only have so much time on this planet, and I want to spend it doing something that matters. And also, by the way, something I really, really, really love to do."我在《经济学人》面试的时候，一位面试官直接问我：“你为什么要做这份工作？” 我告诉他：“我的生命有限，我想用这段时间做一些有意义的事情。顺便说一句，也做一些我非常非常热爱的事情。”I got lucky and it worked out. Today I'm a columnist at the "Washington Post." But every day, AI seems to get better and better at writing competent prose. And I don't know what I'm supposed to do if typing words in a row stops being a semi profitable occupation.我很幸运，成功了。如今我是《华盛顿邮报》的专栏作家。但人工智能似乎每天都在写出越来越优秀的文章。如果打字不再是一项半盈利的职业，我真不知道该怎么办。Now I'm a libertarian columnist, which means I believe in progress and creative destruction. But here’s something I also believe: The Luddites had a point.现在我是一位自由意志主义专栏作家，这意味着我相信进步和创造性破坏。但我也相信一点：卢德分子说得有道理。Look, you don't normally hear libertarians praising Luddites, so let me explain. Today, Luddite is a broad-spectrum term for technophobes. But the Luddites weren't your mom using a landline instead of a cell phone or sending you Hallmark cards with little words underlined. They were skilled artisans who made handcrafted textiles in an era when everyone wore lovingly handcrafted textiles.听着，你通常不会听到自由主义者赞扬卢德分子，所以让我解释一下。如今，“卢德分子”是一个泛指科技恐惧者的术语。但卢德分子可不是你妈妈用座机代替手机，也不是你妈妈给你寄带有下划线小字的贺卡。他们是技艺精湛的工匠，在那个人人都穿着精心制作的手工纺织品的时代，制作手工纺织品。Then mechanized mill owners started underpricing them using some of the most cutting-edge technology of their day, like, spinning jennies that could spin thread at record speeds. So they decided to destroy the machines.后来，机械化工厂的老板们开始压低价格，使用当时最先进的技术，比如能以创纪录的速度纺线的珍妮纺纱机。于是他们决定毁掉这些机器。Honestly, I have some sympathy. In fact, every time one of these companies issues a new model, I get more sympathetic.说实话，我有点同情他们。事实上，每当这些公司发布新车型，我的同情心就增加一分。We libertarians like to talk about the glories of freedom and progress, and they are glorious. But they are not free. Sometimes people get hurt. Often lots of people.我们自由意志主义者喜欢谈论自由和进步的荣耀，它们的确很荣耀。但它们并非自由。有时人们会受到伤害。通常情况下，很多人会受到伤害。The printing press democratized knowledge and also witch burnings and wars of religion. The Industrial Revolution raised living standards and offset them with grim factory jobs, squalid urban living conditions and choking pollution. Now modern governments can allay many of those costs, but they can't give people back the life they had. And we have an obligation to count those costs. I mean, if only because no one was ever persuaded by being told "Your fears are stupid."印刷机使知识民主化，也带来了焚烧女巫和宗教战争。工业革命提高了生活水平，但也带来了残酷的工厂工作、肮脏的城市生活条件和令人窒息的污染。如今，现代政府可以减轻许多此类成本，但却无法让人们重回他们曾经的生活。我们有义务计算这些成本。我的意思是，即使没有人会因为被告知“你的恐惧是愚蠢的”而被说服。So here's why, even after a full accounting, I think we should be willing to bear those costs and let the future unfold, because we're all the beneficiaries of previous decisions to prioritize future growth over protecting the present.因此，即使在全面核算之后，我认为我们仍然应该愿意承担这些成本，让未来自然发展，因为我们都是先前决定优先考虑未来增长而不是保护现在的受益者。

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• 第2715期:How much do you really know about Ancient Rome?(2)

  And finally, the ammonia in urine does indeed make for an excellent stain-fighting solution, which is why Roman launderers often placed buckets on street corners to collect the urine of passersby. That reminds me, next question!最后，尿液中的氨确实是一种极好的去污剂，这就是为什么罗马洗衣工经常在街角放置水桶来收集路人的尿液。这让我想起了下一个问题！A. Many Roman homes featured a vomitorium, a room where people could vomit after overindulging.A：许多罗马家庭都设有呕吐室，即人们在暴饮暴食后可以呕吐的房间。B. The Pythagoreans, who followed the teachings of the Greek mathematician Pythagoras, embraced a vegetarian diet.B. 毕达哥拉斯学派遵循希腊数学家毕达哥拉斯的教义，信奉素食。C. A favorite Roman condiment was sauce made from fermented fish guts.C. 罗马人最喜欢的调味品是用发酵的鱼内脏制成的酱汁。While vomit and vomitoria come from the same root, meaning “to spew forth,” a vomitorium is simply a passage through which spectators spewed from amphitheaters or arenas into the street. Purging was a common medical treatment, but it certainly wasn't prescribed to make room for more fish gut sauce. As for Pythagoras, there were more than three sides to the man, I’ll have you know. He was a philosopher, and his followers embraced his belief that eating animal flesh increased aggressive behavior.虽然“vomit”和“vomitoria”源于同一个词根，意为“喷涌而出”，但“vomitorium”实际上只是一条通道，供观众从圆形剧场或竞技场向街上喷吐。泻药是一种常见的医疗手段，但绝对不是为了给鱼内脏酱腾出空间。至于毕达哥拉斯，我得让你知道，他可不止三面。他是一位哲学家，他的追随者们也信奉他的理念，认为食用动物肉会增加攻击性行为。We’re all tied up. But this last question is sure to separate the true Romano-files from the Romano-flakes.我们都很忙。但最后一个问题肯定能区分出真正的罗马诺人与罗马诺人。A. The city of Rome was sacked twice during the 5th century CE. B. The last western Roman emperor was Romulus Augustulus. C. The Roman Empire fell in 476 CE.A. 罗马城在公元5世纪曾两次遭到洗劫。B. 最后一位西罗马皇帝是罗慕路斯·奥古斯都。C. 罗马帝国于公元476年灭亡。Just as I thought! The very idea that Rome fell is... complicated. It’s true that by 476 the empire looked very different. By the 4th century, it had permanently split into eastern and western halves, each with its own emperor. The last emperor in the west, Romulus Augustulus, was overthrown in 476 CE in a military coup. But the Germanic general who replaced him didn’t make sweeping changes. Roman political and cultural life endured, and military conquests continued— at least until the eastern Emperor Justinian led a devastating invasion of Italy in the 530s. In the east, the Roman Empire survived for a thousand years, becoming what you now call the Byzantine Empire.正如我所想！罗马帝国覆灭本身就……复杂。诚然，到了公元476年，帝国面貌大不相同。到了公元4世纪，它永久地分裂为东西两部分，两部分各有皇帝。西罗马的最后一位皇帝罗慕路斯·奥古斯都鲁在公元476年被军事政变推翻。但取代他的日耳曼将军并没有做出彻底的改变。罗马的政治和文化生活得以延续，军事征服也持续不断——至少在530年代东罗马皇帝查士丁尼率领军队对意大利发动毁灭性入侵之前是如此。在东罗马帝国存续了一千年，成为了如今所谓的拜占庭帝国。That makes contestant number 3 our big winner! Enjoy the spoils! As for our losers, better luck next time. Here's hoping there is one.这么说来，3号选手就是我们的大赢家了！好好享受这份战利品吧！至于输家们，祝他们下次好运。希望下次能有好运。

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