President Trump’s 90-day pause on the imposition of tariffs was meant to come to an end on 8 July, but this has now been extended to 1 August. So, what is the latest with regard to the tariff dispute and how does it impact inflation, recession risk and interest rate policy in the US? And what is the impact on both financial markets and other economies?In this episode of the Beyond Markets podcast, David Kohl, Julius Baer’s Chief Economist, talks to Bernadette Anderko about his current thinking and why the impact of tariffs has still not fed through to the key data that the US Federal Reserve is monitoring when it comes to making monetary policy decisions. They discuss the implications of the tariff dispute on financial markets as well as looking at its potential impact on the trajectory of the US dollar. They also examine the impact on other regions and reflect on what this means for investors going forwards.(00:31) - Introduction
(00:58) - The impact of trade disputes & tariffs
(04:47) - Tariffs’ July 9th rollover impact
(06:35) - Likelihood of US recession?
(08:04) - Impact on US monetary policy
(11:44) - Will Trump be satisfied with 3.5% Fed Funds rate?
(12:38) - Impact of a ‘shadow’ Fed chair
(14:18) - Where the US dollar goes from here
(18:14) - A look at Europe
(21:31) - The China situation
(24:53) - Summary
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The Week in Markets: A return to neo-conservatism
US President Donald Trump’s “America First” foreign policy, which prioritised limiting military involvement overseas and avoiding “endless wars,” now appears to have given way to a revival of neo-conservatism, an ideology that holds the US should actively use its power to intervene abroad. Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said the Fed could cut rates as early as July, because of downside risk to the labour market. A recent Bank of America survey showed fund managers are the most underweight US dollar they have been in the last 20 years. More than half thought international stocks will be the best-performing asset over the next few years.
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Middle East Flashpoint: Implications for oil and gold
With tensions escalating in the Middle East, markets are on edge. Are we seeing a fundamental supply shock in oil —or just a sentiment-driven spike? What are the ripple effects on oil trade routes and prices? And will gold continue to benefit as a safe haven amid rising geopolitical risk and central bank demand?Richard Tang, China Strategist and Head of Research Hong Kong, speaks with Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics and Next Generation Research, to unpack the implications for commodities—and what long-term investors should keep in mind.
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What we learnt from an unusual Q1 earnings season
A large shadow was cast over the Q1 2025 earnings season by President Trump’s Liberation Day tariff bombshells and his administration’s subsequent trade discussions. Investors and traders alike waited with bated breath to see quite what the impact would be on both earnings guidance and companies’ capex plans.In this episode of the Beyond Markets podcast, Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy Research at Julius Baer, talks to Bernadette Anderko about his key takeaways from the earnings releases on both sides of the Atlantic. They discuss which sectors fared better than others, the impact of the tariffs, how to navigate the current market conditions, and much more.00:32 Introduction01:02 US Q1 earnings releases 01:58 Europe’s earnings season02:48 Share price reactions03:32 What happened to guidance?04:42 Tariff impact on capex05:26 What about hyperscalers?06:31 Sell in May …08:17 Navigating recession risk09:34 Summary and conclusionWould you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
“Beyond Markets” by Julius Baer is a series featuring conversations with experts to share recent market developments, key insights, and strategic inputs from around the globe. In each episode, we cut through the noise to offer practical advice and macro research on today’s shifting economic and market landscape.
The information contained in this podcast is marketing material. Opinions expressed do not constitute independent financial/investment research, investment advice, or an offer to buy or sell securities by Julius Baer. Please refer to www.juliusbaer.com/legal/podcasts for important legal information prior to listening to this podcast.
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