Chip Stock Investor Podcast

The software apocalypse continues to rattle the market, but AppLovin (APP) is currently operating like a financial "cheat code." Despite the recent stock dip, the core digital ad business is showing explosive growth, with Q1 2026 guidance projecting a 52% jump in revenue. Between the insane 84% adjusted EBITDA margins and the expansion of their Axon 2.0 AI algorithms, this business is converting cash to the bottom line at an incredible rate.<br>We’re breaking down the reverse DCF to see if the current price is a steal or a trap. With free cash flow nearly doubling to $4 billion and a balance sheet that is back to parity, the black box of AI-driven advertising is proving its value. If you’re looking for a long-term compounding machine that thrives as AI makes content creation easier, watch until the end to see why we might nibble if the stock hits the low $400s.<br>Join us on Discord with Semiconductor Insider, sign up on our website: www.chipstockinvestor.com/membership<br>Supercharge your analysis with AI! Get 15% of your membership with our special link here: https://fiscal.ai/csi/<br>Sign Up For Our Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/b1228c12f284/sign-up-landing-page-short-form<br>Chapters:00:00 The Software Apocalypse Continues 02:15 Q1 2026 Guidance: 52% Revenue Growth 03:30 EBITDA Margins 04:45 CEO Adam Feroughi on the AI Advantage 05:50 The Axon 2.0 Black Box 07:00 Free Cash Flow Doubled08:30 Share Repurchases & Balance Sheet Health 09:45 Reverse DCF: Finding the Fair Value 11:00 Our Strategy: Buying the Dip?If you found this video useful, please make sure to like and subscribe!<br>*********************************************************
<br>Affiliate links that are sprinkled in throughout this video. If something catches your eye and you decide to buy it, we might earn a little coffee money. Thanks for helping us (Kasey) fuel our caffeine addiction!<br>Content in this video is for general information or entertainment only and is not specific or individual investment advice. Forecasts and information presented may not develop as predicted and there is no guarantee any strategies presented will be successful. All investing involves risk, and you could lose some or all of your principal.<br>#AppLovin #APP #StockMarket #AI #Investing #GrowthStocks #DigitalAds #FiscalAI<br>Nick and Kasey own shares of AppLovin

Astera Labs (ALAB) recently crushed earnings estimates and provided strong guidance for Q1 2026, yet the stock remains down. Why is the market hesitating?<br>In this video, we break down the Q4 financials for Astera Labs and preview what to expect from Credo Technology (CRDO). We discuss the competitive landscape regarding re-timers and AECs, but more importantly, we expose a significant red flag regarding customer concentration, the Amazon warrant deal.www.chipstockinvestor.com/membership<br>Is Astera Labs buying revenue at the expense of shareholders? We also run a Reverse DCF valuation to see what growth is priced in at $144/share. <br>https://mailchi.mp/b1228c12f284/sign-up-landing-page-short-form
<br>www.chipstockinvestor.com/membership<br>Supercharge your analysis with AI! Get 15% of your membership with our special link here: https://fiscal.ai/csi/<br>Sign Up For Our Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/b1228c12f284/sign-up-landing-page-short-form<br>If you found this video useful, please make sure to like and subscribe!<br>Chapters:00:00 - Astera Labs: Great Earnings, Bad Stock Action 01:10 - Credo & Astera: The High Growth Dilemma 01:58 - Retimers & Competition (Broadcom, Marvell) 03:00 - M&A Strategy: Consolidating the Market 03:52 - Astera Labs Q4 Financial Review05:14 - Credo Technology Preview: Niche Focus vs. Breadth 06:33 - The Major Risk: Customer Concentration (Hyperscalers) 07:29 - Explained: The Amazon Warrant Deal (Buying Revenue?) 10:18 - Astera Labs Valuation: Reverse DCF at $144 11:27 - Conclusion: Why These Are "Babysitter" Stocks<br>*********************************************************<br>Affiliate links that are sprinkled in throughout this video. If something catches your eye and you decide to buy it, we might earn a little coffee money. Thanks for helping us (Kasey) fuel our caffeine addiction!<br>Content in this video is for general information or entertainment only and is not specific or individual investment advice. Forecasts and information presented may not develop as predicted and there is no guarantee any strategies presented will be successful. All investing involves risk, and you could lose some or all of your principal.<br>#AsteraLabs #ALAB #Credo #CRDO #Semiconductors #StockMarket #Investing #ChipStockInvestor #AIfinance<br>Nick and Kasey own shares of Credo

In April 2025, we made a strategic move to trim our Pinterest position and buy into Reddit. Now, two years into its life as a public company, we’re looking at the data: Can Reddit survive the AI software apocalypse and clear the high growth hurdle the market is pricing in?
We break down Reddit’s 2025 year-end performance, including a staggering 70% year-over-year revenue growth. However, beneath the surface, there are concerns—from the sunset of key user metrics to stock-based compensation that currently eats up 16% of revenue.
We also take you inside our new research platform, Semi Insider, to run a Reverse DCF (Discounted Cash Flow) to find the "fair value" for RDDT stock today.
Join us on Discord with Semiconductor Insider, sign up on our website: www.chipstockinvestor.com/membership
Supercharge your analysis with AI! Get 15% of your membership with our special link here: https://fiscal.ai/csi/
Sign Up For Our Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/b1228c12f284/sign-up-landing-page-short-form
Chapters:0:00 — Why We Swapped Pinterest for Reddit 1:02 — AI Licensing: The "Sidecar" Business Model 2:15 — Revenue Breakdown: Ads vs. Data Licensing 3:20 — Scaling the Network Effect & International Growth 4:01 — The Metric Shift5:10 — Q1 2026 Outlook: 53% Growth? 6:30 — Stock-Based Compensation & Dilution 8:40 — The $1 Billion Buyback Program 9:45 — Reverse DCF: Calculating Reddit's Fair Value
If you found this video useful, please make sure to like and subscribe!
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Affiliate links that are sprinkled in throughout this video. If something catches your eye and you decide to buy it, we might earn a little coffee money. Thanks for helping us (Kasey) fuel our caffeine addiction!
Content in this video is for general information or entertainment only and is not specific or individual investment advice. Forecasts and information presented may not develop as predicted and there is no guarantee any strategies presented will be successful. All investing involves risk, and you could lose some or all of your principal.
#RedditStock #RDDT #Investing #TechStocks #StockAnalysis #SemiInsider #ChipStockInvestor #GrowthInvesting #AI #Finance
Nick and Kasey own shares of Reddit

Is AI eating the software industry, or is it just making it more powerful?<br>In this episode, we sit down with Braden Dennis, CEO and co-founder of Fiscal.ai, to discuss the shift happening in enterprise SaaS. If you've watched our videos, you know we use Fiscal's charts every single day to analyze the markets, so it was great to get Braden’s perspective on where the industry is headed.<br>We dive deep into the software apocalypse narrative and whether it’s based in reality or just a market overreaction. Braden explains why maintaining software is getting easier, how his engineering team has achieved 10x productivity, and why internal AI solutions are coming for the "busy work" that off-the-shelf SaaS can't solve.<br>Join us on Discord with Semiconductor Insider, sign up on our website: www.chipstockinvestor.com/membership<br>Supercharge your analysis with AI! Get 15% of your membership with our special link here: https://fiscal.ai/csi/<br>Sign Up For Our Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/b1228c12f284/sign-up-landing-page-short-form<br>Chapters:0:00 – Is AI Eating Software? 1:12 – Meet Braden Dennis, CEO of Fiscal.ai 1:45 – Why Software Engineering Has Changed Completely 2:40 – 2026 Outlook: Opportunities vs. Traps 3:30 – What Software is Becoming Obsolete? 4:30 – Automating the "Unsolvable" Internal Busy Work 5:15 – "Intelligence in the Sky": A New Data Layer 6:10 – Pricing Power Debate: Will Clients Pay Less? 7:45 – Broadcom & VMware Case Study8:55 – Comparing the Software Correction to 2018 Semiconductors 11:45 – Lessons on Market Cyclicality 13:55 – The Problem with Late-Stage Venture Capital 16:00 – Why We Need More Tech IPOs 18:10 – The Incentive for Founders to Stay Private 20:00 – Evaluating Figma and Adobe in the AI Age21:30 – ServiceNow: Narrative vs. Financial Reality 22:45 – Final Verdict: Being Selective in a Sell-off<br>If you found this video useful, please make sure to like and subscribe!<br>*********************************************************<br>Affiliate links that are sprinkled in throughout this video. If something catches your eye and you decide to buy it, we might earn a little coffee money. Thanks for helping us (Kasey) fuel our caffeine addiction!<br>Content in this video is for general information or entertainment only and is not specific or individual investment advice. Forecasts and information presented may not develop as predicted and there is no guarantee any strategies presented will be successful. All investing involves risk, and you could lose some or all of your principal.<br> #AI #SaaS #SoftwareStocks #Investing #ChipStockInvestor #FiscalAI #TechInvesting #ServiceNow #stockmarket2026 <br>Nick and Kasey own shares of Adobe, Figma, ServiceNow

Tesla is embarking on a shift in business operations, and the implications for the semiconductor industry could be significant. In this video, we examine Tesla’s 2026 capital expenditure (CapEx) outlook through the lens of operating leverage.<br>With a projected $20 billion in CapEx for 2026—not including the proposed TeraFab, Tesla is moving further away from being just an automaker and closer to becoming a vertically integrated robotics and AI powerhouse. What does this mean for current suppliers like Nvidia, Qualcomm, and Micron? We break down the risks of Tesla shoring up its own supply chain and how it could shift pricing power back away from the chipmakers.<br>Join us on Discord with Semiconductor Insider, sign up on our website: www.chipstockinvestor.com/membership<br>Supercharge your analysis with AI! Get 15% of your membership with our special link here: https://fiscal.ai/csi/<br>Sign Up For Our Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/b1228c12f284/sign-up-landing-page-short-form<br>If you found this video useful, please make sure to like and subscribe!*********************************************************Affiliate links that are sprinkled in throughout this video. If something catches your eye and you decide to buy it, we might earn a little coffee money. Thanks for helping us (Kasey) fuel our caffeine addiction!<br>Content in this video is for general information or entertainment only and is not specific or individual investment advice. Forecasts and information presented may not develop as predicted and there is no guarantee any strategies presented will be successful. All investing involves risk, and you could lose some or all of your principal.<br> #Tesla #TSLA #Semiconductors #ChipStocks #Investing #Optimus #AI #SupplyChain #FinanceEducation