Chip Stock Investor Podcast

Are the Fab 5 wafer fab equipment companies — ASML, Applied Materials, Lam Research, Tokyo Electron, and KLA Corp — still worth buying at today's valuations? CSI breaks down 20 years of revenue data across the five companies that control roughly 70% of annual global fab equipment spending, and explain why 2026 and 2027 are shaping up to be record revenue years — with a potential speed bump in 2028 worth watching.

The conversation also covers the wave of creative M&A reshaping the equipment landscape: the Axcelis and Veeco merger nearing final approval,
Onto Innovation's strategic equity stake in X-ray imaging firm Rigaku, and Applied Materials' targeted acquisition of an advanced packaging segment from ASMPT.

But the most overlooked part of this episode is the introduction of the Lab 7 — a group of life science and laboratory capital equipment companies, including Thermo Fisher, Agilent, Bruker, and Revvity, that share surprising structural overlap with semiconductor supply chain investing.
CSI explains why these companies could serve as a diversification play for semiconductor-heavy portfolios, and why the two industries may begin to converge.

If you're wondering how to stay invested in the semiconductor supply chain without overconcentrating in a handful of names, this episode gives you a research-backed framework for thinking about it.

Topics covered:
- Fab 5 revenue breakdown and 20-year performance
- Is wafer fab equipment overpriced in 2026?
- Axcelis + Veeco merger update
- Onto Innovation & Rigaku X-ray partnership
- Applied Materials acquires ASMPT packaging segment
- Introducing the Lab 7: life science meets semiconductor
- Portfolio diversification beyond the semiconductor supply chain
- Semiconductor market cycle outlook through 2028 and beyond

For in-depth stock research and the Semiconductor Insider membership, visit chipstockinvestor.com. Use fiscal.ai/csi for 15% off any paid plan.

Amphenol (APH) just reported Q1 2026 earnings and the stock sold off — but the revenue numbers tell a different story. In this episode, Kasey and Nick break down every segment of Amphenol's business and ask whether this "boring" semiconductor supply chain stock is one of the better values in AI infrastructure right now.

Amphenol is one of the world's largest manufacturers of electrical connectors, cables, antennas, and sensors. It operates across 350 facilities worldwide and sits at the intersection of AI data centers, aerospace and defense, automotive, industrial automation, and satellite communications. It doesn't make a flashy end product — but nearly every major AI infrastructure build runs through Amphenol components.

In this episode we cover:
— IT DataCom: now 41% of Amphenol's total revenue and nearly doubling year over year as AI data center demand drives cable and connector spending— Industrial: 20% of revenue, up 16% organically, led by building connectivity and automation sensors— Communications networks: 91% as-reported growth boosted by the CommScope acquisition, but flat organically — broadband infrastructure spending has softened— Defense: up 44% year over year, with high single digit growth expected to continue— Automotive: soft in Asia, down 7% sequentially, modest recovery expected in Q2— Commercial air and mobile devices: small segments, largely holding steady

We also dig into why earnings per share is growing slightly slower than revenue despite strong AI data center demand — and the answer comes down to the CommScope acquisition. CommScope's margins are lower than Amphenol's existing business, integration takes time, and the long-term debt load is now visible on the balance sheet. None of this is unusual for a major acquisition, but it explains the market's reaction.

We close with a reverse DCF scenario using a five-year average growth rate of 22% and a 4% terminal growth rate — and discuss what that implies about fair value for APH stock as of May 2026.

If you're researching semiconductor stocks, AI infrastructure investing, or picks-and-shovels plays in the data center buildout, this is an episode worth your time.

More research and stock tools at chipstockinvestor.com — and join Semi Insider for deeper analysis.

Nvidia just reported Q1 fiscal year 2027. The numbers are extraordinary even by Nvidia's own standards. Free cash flow of $49 billion. A nearly 60% free cash flow margin. Revenue guidance implying over $300 billion for calendar year 2026, with some estimates suggesting $400 billion is possible. Next quarter alone: $91 billion in guided revenue. Vera Rubin is beginning to ship and is expected to generate $20 billion in its first six months.

And then Jensen Huang said something on the earnings call that almost nobody covered.

Nvidia plans to become the world's largest CPU supplier in 2026.

That single claim has profound implications — for Intel, for AMD, for every investor tracking the CPU market, and for the semiconductor supply chain at large. CSI called this out as a remote possibility during their CPU market share update just weeks earlier. Now it is a public commitment from Jensen Huang himself.

CSI works through the full picture in this episode. They cover Nvidia's new revenue reporting framework — the shift from a single data center segment to two sub-markets. Hyperscale covers the five major cloud providers: Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta, and Oracle. ACIE covers AI clouds, industrial, enterprise, and sovereign data centers. This segmentation matters enormously because 80% of global IT spending is still on legacy systems. The enterprise migration to AI infrastructure is just beginning to happen at scale, and for the first time investors have direct visibility into it through Nvidia's own reporting.

They also run the reverse DCF at $223 per share. The result: 20% free cash flow per share growth over five years at a 6% terminal rate gets you to today's price. That is not historically cheap for Nvidia. But it is the lowest bar the company has had to clear in years — and given that EPS grew 214% and FCF per share grew 88% in Q1 alone, clearing that bar looks more feasible than it sounds.

CSI's updated position: Nvidia remains their largest personal holding. The updated baseline assumption is 50% stock price growth for 2026, revised upward from 40%. Not a prediction. A framework for thinking about what the business needs to deliver to justify current prices.

What we cover:
— Nvidia Q1 FY2027: $49B FCF, 60% FCF margin, EPS +214% YoY
— Revenue outlook: $300B+ in 2026, $91B guided next quarter
— Vera Rubin: $20B in sales expected in first six months
— New reporting framework: hyperscale vs. ACIE and why it matters
— The enterprise migration — 80% of global IT still on legacy systems
— Jensen's CPU claim: Nvidia to be world's largest CPU supplier in 2026
— Reverse DCF at $223: 20% FCF/share growth, 6% terminal rate
— Why Nvidia has looked "boring" while small caps ran hundreds of percent
— Updated CSI baseline: 50% stock price target revised upward

Semi Insider members get access to CSI's full DCF and reverse DCF tools, live Q&A sessions, and analysis like this as it happens. Join at chipstockinvestor.com

Disclosure: Nick and Kasey have a position in Nvidia. This content is for general information only and is not individual investment advice. All investing involves risk.

chipstockinvestor.com

On the Q1 2026 earnings call for TransMedics, the CEO said something that stopped everyone in their tracks. Major transplant programs, he said, are going to Home Depot and buying YETI coolers to preserve human hearts before transplantation. None of those coolers are FDA-approved. None are validated for that purpose. That is the status quo TransMedics is trying to replace.

This is CSI's update on TransMedics following their May 5th earnings report. TransMedics is not a semiconductor company — it sits in CSI's small bets basket, a collection of positions outside the core semiconductor thesis that Kasey follows closely. The company is building what it describes as the premier program for organ transplantation, combining a warm perfusion technology called the Organ Care System with its own aviation logistics network to dramatically improve the odds that a donated organ reaches its recipient in viable condition.

The Q1 2026 numbers are solid. Revenue of $174 million, up 21% year over year, with 82% of organ transplants now covered by TransMedics' own logistics service. But the more interesting story is what comes next across four distinct growth catalysts.

First, the CHOPS system — a new cold preservation device TransMedics just developed to serve the segment of the heart transplant market where cold storage is sufficient and warm perfusion is not required. Of 4,646 hearts transplanted in 2025, roughly 2,100 were preserved for less than four hours. That entire segment is currently going to Home Depot coolers. CHOPS is also the control arm TransMedics needed to run the ENHANCE Heart clinical trials — a clever solution to the problem of not being able to find a competitor willing to run head-to-head against their warm perfusion system.

Second, European expansion — a logistics partnership with PAD Aviation in Germany and new infrastructure in Italy that could eventually double the total addressable market.

Third, the kidney opportunity. Over 20,000 deceased kidney transplants happen annually in the United States. Between 8,000 and 9,000 kidneys are discarded every year due to prolonged ischemic times. TransMedics has designed a Gen 3.0 OCS platform for kidney transplantation, targeting 2027 for market entry.

Fourth, the Gen 3.0 platform upgrade for liver, heart, and lung — parallel development tracks that modernize the core product across every organ.

Kasey closes with something genuinely useful: an honest accounting of what could go right and what could go wrong, and why she continues to hold a small position.

This episode was released to Semi Insider members several weeks before this public version. Members get Kasey and Nick's full research, live Q&A sessions, and analysis like this as it happens. Join at chipstockinvestor.com/membership

What we cover:
— The CHOPS cold preservation system and why it exists
— ENHANCE Heart trial — Part A and Part B explained
— Will CHOPS cannibalize OCS warm perfusion revenue? The CEO's answer
— Heart transplant market data — 2,131 hearts going to cold storage annually
— European expansion — PAD Aviation and Italy buildout
— The kidney opportunity — 20,000+ transplants, 8,000–9,000 discarded
— OCS Gen 3.0 — kidney platform targeting 2027
— Q1 2026 financials — $174M revenue, balance sheet, Summit Aviation debt
— What could go right and what could go wrong for TMDX
— CSI's current position and ongoing conviction

Disclosure: Kasey and Nick hold a position in TransMedics. This content is for general information only and is not individual investment advice. All investing involves risk.

chipstockinvestor.com

Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet, and Meta just collectively committed to over $750 billion in capital expenditure for 2026. They spent $130 billion in a single quarter. That is a 70% increase from what these companies spent in 2025 — and the spending is still accelerating into the second half of the year.

The ROI is showing up. Operating margins are expanding across all four businesses. Google Cloud grew 63% year over year. AWS grew 28%. Microsoft Intelligent Cloud grew 29%. Meta grew revenue 33%. This is not speculative infrastructure spending anymore. These are some of the most profitable businesses ever built, getting more profitable.

But the more important conversation is about what this means for everyone else.

CSI has a framework for understanding how AI infrastructure investment actually flows — and it is the most useful mental model for investors trying to figure out where value accrues in the AI buildout. The hyperscalers eat first. They buy the technology and deploy it internally before any customer touches it. Their strategic investment partners eat second — OpenAI, Anthropic, and others who receive capital and get early infrastructure access. Enterprise software companies and Neo Cloud providers eat third. They get the leftovers, and right now they are scrambling.

This creates two distinct problems. Neo Cloud companies have great infrastructure but no vertical integration — no final product of their own. The moment spare capacity appears in the market, their economics break down rapidly. Enterprise SaaS companies have great products but no infrastructure control — they get stuck waiting for technology that the hyperscalers have already been using internally for years.

CSI lays out what both camps need to do to survive the next phase: Neo Clouds need to start developing software and services of their own before excess capacity forces their hand. Enterprise software companies need to start acquiring infrastructure assets — and there are already early signals that the smarter ones are doing exactly that.

This episode was released to Semi Insider members several weeks before this public version. Members receive CSI's full research, live Q&A sessions, and analysis like this as it happens — not weeks later. If that matters to you, the membership page is at chipstockinvestor.com

What we cover:
— Why hyperscaler earnings reactions are about cashflow expectations not beats or misses
— $750B+ in 2026 AI CapEx — full breakdown across Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet, and Meta
— Amazon Q1 2026: AWS +28% YoY, operating margin expanding to 13.1%
— Microsoft Q1 2026: Intelligent Cloud +29% YoY, 46.3% operating margin
— Alphabet Q1 2026: Google Cloud +63% YoY, 36.1% operating margin
— Meta Q1 2026: +33% revenue, CapEx raised to $245B, why the stock reaction was muted
— The ROI is real — operating leverage across all four hyperscalers
— The "who eats first" hierarchy — the most useful AI investing framework right now
— Neo Cloud companies — the vertical integration problem and what needs to change
— Enterprise SaaS — why they are chasing the puck and what the smart ones are doing
— Early signals: Salesforce, Snowflake, Fortinet, Trade Desk CapEx moves

Disclosure: Nick and Kasey hold positions in several companies mentioned. This content is for general information only and is not individual investment advice. All investing involves risk.

chipstockinvestor.com